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The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World
The man who predicted the worst economic crisis in US history shows you how to survive it.The current crisis is not like 2008 or even 1929. The New Depression that has emerged from the COVID pandemic is the worst economic crisis in U.S. history. Most fired employees will remain redundant. Bankruptcies will be common, and banks will buckle under the weight of bad debts. Deflation, debt, and demography will wreck any chance of recovery, and social disorder will follow closely on the heels of market chaos. The happy talk from Wall Street and the White House is an illusion. The worst is yet to come.But for knowledgeable investors, all hope is not lost.In The New Great Depression, James Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of Aftermath and The New Case for Gold, pulls back the curtain to reveal the true risks to our financial system and what savvy investors can do to survive -- even prosper -- during a time of unrivaled turbulence. Drawing on historical case studies, monetary theory, and behind-the-scenes access to the halls of power, Rickards shines a clarifying light on the events taking place, so investors understand what's really happening and what they can do about it.A must-read for any fans of Rickards and for investors everywhere who want to understand how to preserve their wealth during the worst economic crisis in US history.
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First published January 12, 2021
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 119 reviews
December 23, 2020
I found this short, vociferously pompous book way below par so much so that I think 80 percent of its physical content could have been better used as recycled paper cups at a coffee stand.
The book makes certain “dramatic” or controversial claims without backing them up with supporting evidence, nor offering any logical advice. It is also strewn with false (or quasi-false statements at best) and misleads the average reader with wild statements – such as claiming that lockdown is unconstitutional (1- debatable, 2- who cares in such an emergency?), that full lockdowns do not work, that the policymakers are utterly clueless (but he, the author, of course knows better) etc.
The most aberrant claim the author makes that made me fall of my chair was “flattening of the curve means elongating the curve… total cases and fatalities are defined by the total area under the curve, not by the height at a particular point.” While this is technically correct, the author seems to be deficient in common sense when he looks over the fact that more people would be infected if it the curve is not flattened, making the pandemic more prevalent and painful.
The author who does not miss a chance to display his self-assurance, opens the book by claiming that the response to the Covid-19 is a “cure worse than the disease” that will sink the US economy to the depts of economic Hades – the author, I found out later, has a streak of making super-gloomy forecasts since he took up writing. He further claims that no alternative strategy other than a full lockdown was considered/used. Mysteriously, he glosses over that there never really was a national lockdown to begin with, let alone offering what these “alternatives” he refers to. His logical fallacy extends to comparing past policies in fighting drugs, alcohol – without noting the main difference they all have with the virus, i.e., that the virus is an exogenous factor, so cannot really be… regulated.
I must say that I can never wrap my head around some of the “worries” mentioned by the author –and I hear them only in American circles… These are the potential necessity to live with negative growth rates for a few years, the drop in consumption/spending (oh the horror!), the allergy Americans have against any type of governmental authority, that Americans suffer “psychosocial effects” due to lockdown (whereas no other people on earth do, or complain about…) Meanwhile the author gives an implicit nod to protestors showing up with semiautomatic rifles in public places… Go figure.
His “precious” investment advise is also quite laughable, purportedly advocating to “use models that work” and “front-run robots” to time the market. This is akin to telling someone “buy low, sell high” – sound in theory, but impossible of course in practice.
His evaluation of economic theories such as the magic mountain theory (modern monetary theory, which I find to be utter...), monetarism; the misuse of statistics (such as unemployment numbers); as well as his research on the virus, however, earns the author a star.
The book makes certain “dramatic” or controversial claims without backing them up with supporting evidence, nor offering any logical advice. It is also strewn with false (or quasi-false statements at best) and misleads the average reader with wild statements – such as claiming that lockdown is unconstitutional (1- debatable, 2- who cares in such an emergency?), that full lockdowns do not work, that the policymakers are utterly clueless (but he, the author, of course knows better) etc.
The most aberrant claim the author makes that made me fall of my chair was “flattening of the curve means elongating the curve… total cases and fatalities are defined by the total area under the curve, not by the height at a particular point.” While this is technically correct, the author seems to be deficient in common sense when he looks over the fact that more people would be infected if it the curve is not flattened, making the pandemic more prevalent and painful.
The author who does not miss a chance to display his self-assurance, opens the book by claiming that the response to the Covid-19 is a “cure worse than the disease” that will sink the US economy to the depts of economic Hades – the author, I found out later, has a streak of making super-gloomy forecasts since he took up writing. He further claims that no alternative strategy other than a full lockdown was considered/used. Mysteriously, he glosses over that there never really was a national lockdown to begin with, let alone offering what these “alternatives” he refers to. His logical fallacy extends to comparing past policies in fighting drugs, alcohol – without noting the main difference they all have with the virus, i.e., that the virus is an exogenous factor, so cannot really be… regulated.
I must say that I can never wrap my head around some of the “worries” mentioned by the author –and I hear them only in American circles… These are the potential necessity to live with negative growth rates for a few years, the drop in consumption/spending (oh the horror!), the allergy Americans have against any type of governmental authority, that Americans suffer “psychosocial effects” due to lockdown (whereas no other people on earth do, or complain about…) Meanwhile the author gives an implicit nod to protestors showing up with semiautomatic rifles in public places… Go figure.
His “precious” investment advise is also quite laughable, purportedly advocating to “use models that work” and “front-run robots” to time the market. This is akin to telling someone “buy low, sell high” – sound in theory, but impossible of course in practice.
His evaluation of economic theories such as the magic mountain theory (modern monetary theory, which I find to be utter...), monetarism; the misuse of statistics (such as unemployment numbers); as well as his research on the virus, however, earns the author a star.
March 3, 2021
Really not worth the read. Trying to broaden my reading to include "the other side", but honestly - this was nonsense. The entire opening was baseless conjecture about the origins of Covid-19, the irresponsibility of locking down in attempting to slow the spread, and the immateriality of wearing masks. He tried to make his arguments valid by citing a WMD classic, 'The Great Influenza', by John Barry, but managed to make his citations anachronistic, which I didn't think was possible [... that mask-wearing in 1918 was inadequate, the only way to protect yourself was to limit exposure, and equating that to today's masks and today's success rate of mask-wearing]. Anyway- his position was made clear in the first few paragraphs but he failed to persuade me in any other way.
February 21, 2021
Books are incredible. They allow you to have a conversation with someone you would normally never be able to reach.
Obviously, the chat is pretty one-way, but that's fine. There have been many times in my life I've had a coffee with someone and just listened the entire time.
This book was like paying $10.00 to grab a coffee with your extremely contrarian friend working in finance. Of course, you take everything he says with a grain of salt, and you don't agree with everything. But damn, he's certainly not boring.
I always want to hear the dissenters. Even if I don't necessarily agree with 90% of what they say the 10% could be absurdly valuable in my life.
I felt James Rickards didn't waste my time. He seems to truly believe in what he says, and he had the decency to be entertaining.
Obviously, the chat is pretty one-way, but that's fine. There have been many times in my life I've had a coffee with someone and just listened the entire time.
This book was like paying $10.00 to grab a coffee with your extremely contrarian friend working in finance. Of course, you take everything he says with a grain of salt, and you don't agree with everything. But damn, he's certainly not boring.
I always want to hear the dissenters. Even if I don't necessarily agree with 90% of what they say the 10% could be absurdly valuable in my life.
I felt James Rickards didn't waste my time. He seems to truly believe in what he says, and he had the decency to be entertaining.
January 13, 2021
Complete waste of time. If you have read his previous books than you will understand the difference. Don't expect that level of quality. Same things over and over again.
January 5, 2021
Силно разхвърляна и претенциозна книга. Изводът от нея - всичко ще става много зле, но то е нормално и да не кажете че не ви казах. Изходът - направете си план и го следвайте. Какъв да е той - вие си знаете. Криптовалутите, търговските и валутни войни не съществуват. Купувайте злато - така ако държавата го купува за да оправи инфлацията, ще поскъпне. Ако не го купува държавата, ами пак ще поскъпне. Много данни има, обосновано тълкуване или извод относно тях - няма. Освен че ще става много зле нали.
March 7, 2022
I was expecting some "conspiracy theory" hyperbole, but it turns out I was wrong.
A great read. Especially with what's going on now. Open-minded, logic, and reason are a must when reading this book.
A great read. Especially with what's going on now. Open-minded, logic, and reason are a must when reading this book.
January 25, 2021
Too short, too little interesting info.
May 27, 2021
Изключително пространен анализ от Джим Рикардс, който умело съчетава ефектите от пандемията с натрупаните проблеми в икономиката. Силен момент е, че авторът акцентира сериозно върху явленията в икономиката, които не могат да бъдат квантифицирани като поведението на икономическите агенти, техните очаквания, личните им съдби и т.н. Наред с това Рикардс обосновава защо безконтролното печатане на пари и политическият контрол върху затормозяват възстановяването и обричат икономиката на дълга стагнация. За сетен път авторът акцентира върху дълговия проблем, като същевременно дава конкретни рецепти за по-адекватна парична политика.
Книгата ще е полезна за всеки читател, който търси своя ориентир в трудните икономически времена в които света се намира.
Jim Rickards skillfully explains the convergence between two crises, which overlap themselves – firstly the accumulated problems in the world economy after the Great Recession of 2008 and the unprecedented lockdowns during the pandemic. The author emphasizes that some factors in the economy cannot be quantified (such as human behavior, consumer expectations, personal issues, etc. In addition, Rickards argues why the uncontrolled money printing in combination with political control over the economy are hampering the recovery and doom the economy to a long stagnation. Once again, the author focuses his analysis on the enormous debt problem, and at the same time gives specific recommendations for adequate monetary policy.
This book will be useful for anyone who is looking for a guide in these difficult economic times.
Книгата ще е полезна за всеки читател, който търси своя ориентир в трудните икономически времена в които света се намира.
Jim Rickards skillfully explains the convergence between two crises, which overlap themselves – firstly the accumulated problems in the world economy after the Great Recession of 2008 and the unprecedented lockdowns during the pandemic. The author emphasizes that some factors in the economy cannot be quantified (such as human behavior, consumer expectations, personal issues, etc. In addition, Rickards argues why the uncontrolled money printing in combination with political control over the economy are hampering the recovery and doom the economy to a long stagnation. Once again, the author focuses his analysis on the enormous debt problem, and at the same time gives specific recommendations for adequate monetary policy.
This book will be useful for anyone who is looking for a guide in these difficult economic times.
November 30, 2020
Good book with good reaserch. I liked different perspectives and interesting views on pandemic situation, analysis on virus and economic conditions connected to lockdown. Definitely the author has done a deep research on all the topics covered.
January 16, 2023
I’m a fan of Jim Rickards. This book is strong on the economics, but I would skip the “pandemic investigation” chapters. I don’t think they further his arguments and public health isn’t his area of expertise.
January 14, 2021
Probably his best, certainly his most important and timely.
February 5, 2021
Obnoxiously arrogant and political, stuffed with baseless conjecture, The New Great Depression applies no quantitative reasoning or data-driven analysis to any of the author-journalist’s major theses or sporadic claims.
For a quarter of the book, Richards evolves into an investment advisor, unconvincingly forecasting a 700% price increase in gold only four years out from the book’s publishing. Richards then confusingly encourages the base reader to allocate only minuscule fractions his/her investable assets into the commodity, promoting 30% liquid cash as the “ideal investment allocation.” This comes despite the author’s concession that short-term inflation may take hold before a more permanent deflationary environment develops in the “new Great Depression.” The author-journalist either hedges all of his claims, or refuses to provide data-based explanations for how he arrives at those claims.
The journalist-author routinely falls into playing armchair epidemiologist, writing preposterous, unevidenced passages like, “school closures accomplish little because children have good resistance to SARS Cov-2. Children don’t get COVID-19 from other children, they get it from adults, and they’ll encounter more adults at home than at school.” His prognostications that no vaccine can ever be used to effectively curb COVID-19 appear silly and uninformed only weeks post-publication.
The political agenda of the journalist-author resonates throughout. Despite the book’s central thesis that the state-by-state lockdown decisions of 2020 represented the worst policy blunders in American history, the author only ever critiques decisions with hindsight bias, focusing instead on his own arbitrary predictions for the future while also managing to tout that he correctly predicted both the 2016 election and Brexit. At best, this book should have been reduced by 75% and put into a periodical op-ed; I can’t see myself reading anything else Mr. Richards has to write.
For a quarter of the book, Richards evolves into an investment advisor, unconvincingly forecasting a 700% price increase in gold only four years out from the book’s publishing. Richards then confusingly encourages the base reader to allocate only minuscule fractions his/her investable assets into the commodity, promoting 30% liquid cash as the “ideal investment allocation.” This comes despite the author’s concession that short-term inflation may take hold before a more permanent deflationary environment develops in the “new Great Depression.” The author-journalist either hedges all of his claims, or refuses to provide data-based explanations for how he arrives at those claims.
The journalist-author routinely falls into playing armchair epidemiologist, writing preposterous, unevidenced passages like, “school closures accomplish little because children have good resistance to SARS Cov-2. Children don’t get COVID-19 from other children, they get it from adults, and they’ll encounter more adults at home than at school.” His prognostications that no vaccine can ever be used to effectively curb COVID-19 appear silly and uninformed only weeks post-publication.
The political agenda of the journalist-author resonates throughout. Despite the book’s central thesis that the state-by-state lockdown decisions of 2020 represented the worst policy blunders in American history, the author only ever critiques decisions with hindsight bias, focusing instead on his own arbitrary predictions for the future while also managing to tout that he correctly predicted both the 2016 election and Brexit. At best, this book should have been reduced by 75% and put into a periodical op-ed; I can’t see myself reading anything else Mr. Richards has to write.
January 30, 2021
This book was not a total waste of time and money. The verbose 33 pages of chapter 6 actually provided information that supported the premise of the book. However, for $29.00 I feel this could have been published in an article and sold on a newsstand for much less.
This is the first time I have read this author. I am deeply disappointed. The book overall is rushed and lacking. I will definitely borrow before I purchase again. Most importantly, I will read the reviews.
This is the first time I have read this author. I am deeply disappointed. The book overall is rushed and lacking. I will definitely borrow before I purchase again. Most importantly, I will read the reviews.
January 15, 2021
A one star review means the author does not deserve money for publishing this book. I found Rickards account of what should be an objective situation to be extremely charged and tainted with his biased opinions. Beginning with his analysis of the virus's origins to his desire for a reversion to the gold standard, Rickards tries to get the reader to buy into his ideas as "fact" and as if there is no reasonable alternative. In reality, his stances are more often asserted and accompanied by slanted facts that obviously support his stance. He's got an agenda and this book is his attempt for you to drink his kool-aid.
Now, independent of whether or not I agree with his agenda I think there is definitely an overarching problem with his book and that's the lack of depth. He drops fancy jargon when it comes to predictive analysis, modeling, economics, etc. But behind his facade of academia, he's really just whining about how damned the country is for 160+ pages. He does explain, in detail, how current solutions are failing to address the root of the problem and how we must be a lot more conservative in our recovery outlook. But not once does Rickards outline what a good recovery looks like. The closest he comes to this is by saying we get back to a gold-pegged dollar. Where does job creation happen? What sectors grow? What sectors die? What is the public sector relationship like with the private sector? What social issues are solved? How is the environment factored into solutions? How equitable will a good recovery be? These are all fundamental questions about what a post-pandemic world will look like, but they're all absent in this book.
Now, independent of whether or not I agree with his agenda I think there is definitely an overarching problem with his book and that's the lack of depth. He drops fancy jargon when it comes to predictive analysis, modeling, economics, etc. But behind his facade of academia, he's really just whining about how damned the country is for 160+ pages. He does explain, in detail, how current solutions are failing to address the root of the problem and how we must be a lot more conservative in our recovery outlook. But not once does Rickards outline what a good recovery looks like. The closest he comes to this is by saying we get back to a gold-pegged dollar. Where does job creation happen? What sectors grow? What sectors die? What is the public sector relationship like with the private sector? What social issues are solved? How is the environment factored into solutions? How equitable will a good recovery be? These are all fundamental questions about what a post-pandemic world will look like, but they're all absent in this book.
March 22, 2021
I read this book based on Zora's recommendation. It has some good parts, but to me the book suffered from not knowing what it wanted to be...
I am a physician. I did not understand why so much of the book was devoted to the medicine behind Covid. It went on and on and on. It got really detailed and had many chapters that seemed to differ from the reason I want to read the book: in order to pick "winners and losers in a post-pandemic world."
Once it finally got to the meat (at the end), I understood why Zora recommended it. However, I think the book really lacks focus. I found myself mostly frustrated. Yet, however, I was glad I read for the final payoff chapter. I also agree with the author that the lock-downs will go down as the worst decision in history.
I am a physician. I did not understand why so much of the book was devoted to the medicine behind Covid. It went on and on and on. It got really detailed and had many chapters that seemed to differ from the reason I want to read the book: in order to pick "winners and losers in a post-pandemic world."
Once it finally got to the meat (at the end), I understood why Zora recommended it. However, I think the book really lacks focus. I found myself mostly frustrated. Yet, however, I was glad I read for the final payoff chapter. I also agree with the author that the lock-downs will go down as the worst decision in history.
November 13, 2021
Great book on the economics of a post (not yet!) COVID world.
The colossal impacts of COVID and how its initial spread caused such a worldwide change.
Very interesting read.
Would highly recommend.
4.8/5
The colossal impacts of COVID and how its initial spread caused such a worldwide change.
Very interesting read.
Would highly recommend.
4.8/5
May 12, 2021
DNF. The author is contradictory and inconsistent with his statements. Not a fan.
June 24, 2021
Stopped reading due to out dated information.
March 27, 2022
Jim Rickards is a bright and interesting guy. His book is interesting too, especially the conclusion. With hindsight he probably should’ve waited another 6 to 12 months before coming out with this book re the economic consequences stemming from government and monetary responses to the pandemic.
February 6, 2021
I really like and respect the author, reading all of his books. Sadly, this one seems rushed and unimaginative. It's short, somewhat biased, and for the first time I was unable to shake the feeling that it was just an attempt to monetise the crisis. Nothing very new in terms of portfolio recommendations compared to his other books. Conspicuous lack of coverage of alternative asset classes like bitcoin (think what you like about it but it deserves a mention in the context of gold at least). In his advancing years, Mr. Rickards seems to be becoming ever more steadfast in his views and makes an increasing number of unsupported claims. He talks about what he predicted right but never about what he got wrong (e.g. Trump's reelection).
Much preferred his older stuff like Currency Wars from which I learned a huge amount and was very interested in the history and context.
Much preferred his older stuff like Currency Wars from which I learned a huge amount and was very interested in the history and context.
February 16, 2021
The weakest work by Jim Rickards, by far. Too short, and a regurgitation of all of his previous views and ideas wrapped in the cover of pandemic and “new Great Depression” that he’s predicting. Might be an okay read for those who are not familiar with his previous works
February 19, 2021
The last wo books of this author add little to what he has written before. This book in that regard even less than the previous book. That is a pity. Maybe there is so much that can be written about the subject before saturation kicks in.
March 14, 2021
Written with a chip on his shoulder. His diatribe on MMT might as well have been written in Greek. I wouldn’t invite him back either.
Rips the lockdown but offers no alternative.
Good info on the Spanish flu and Great Depression.
Seemingly sound approach to balanced investing.
You think he’s stretching a but by blaming riots on COVID?
Reasonable structure on future of commercial and residential real estate. Logical description of the notion of velocity.
Rips the lockdown but offers no alternative.
Good info on the Spanish flu and Great Depression.
Seemingly sound approach to balanced investing.
You think he’s stretching a but by blaming riots on COVID?
Reasonable structure on future of commercial and residential real estate. Logical description of the notion of velocity.
January 17, 2021
Over the years I've learned so much from JR. He is rare polyglot in the rubric of logic - to be admired. But this book falls well short of his previous. Many of the islands of logic contradict themselves and his reoccurring premise that 'lockdowns dont work' is tantamount to theoretical physics - one can always doubt experiments that exist in a 1:1 scale; and doubt is a double edge that cuts both ways.
Cant recommend this one, clearly rushed to publish, much shorter in length than previous, and the sense of a vested agenda is much stronger than in previous more objective works. Plus the author is always careful to conclude with an agnostic 'balanced portfolio' disclaimer even though the latter is entirely inconsistent with backbone narrative that one needs to be agile and not blindly long term. I think they call that intellectual hedging.
Cant recommend this one, clearly rushed to publish, much shorter in length than previous, and the sense of a vested agenda is much stronger than in previous more objective works. Plus the author is always careful to conclude with an agnostic 'balanced portfolio' disclaimer even though the latter is entirely inconsistent with backbone narrative that one needs to be agile and not blindly long term. I think they call that intellectual hedging.
March 9, 2021
This book is far from perfect, and gets a few things completely wrong (disproven by history in one case, and lacking knowledge of the marketplace in the other). However, it makes a bunch of arguments which are very good, and is generally correct on its core message -- that the economic lockdown was unprecedented, misguided, and caused lasting harm which will not go away quickly once the covid-19 situation itself normalizes.
Essentially, he's arguing for a return to a gold standard -- either overtly, or simply through open market repurchases of gold. However, he recognizes the western governments (unlike Russia and China) won't do this, and yet doesn't propose anything better.
Essentially, he's arguing for a return to a gold standard -- either overtly, or simply through open market repurchases of gold. However, he recognizes the western governments (unlike Russia and China) won't do this, and yet doesn't propose anything better.
May 8, 2021
Her ne kadar piyasa kısmındaki yorumlarından çoğuna katılsam da pandeminin klinik tarafı için yaptığı çıkarımlara katılmak çok zor. Yine de tarihteki diğer büyük krizlerle karşılaştırmalı bir günümüz resmi görmek isteyenler için fena bir derleme olmayabilir
January 23, 2021
Nichts anderes außer Schwarzmalerei
February 12, 2022
Kur savaslari kitabi hatirina okudum…pas gecebilirsiniz. Cok bir sey kaybetmezsiniz…
March 31, 2021
3/5
The most interesting chapters, ironically for a book ostensibly about the economics of the pandemic, are about possible origin of the virus in a lab instead of wet markets; the psychological effect of the pandemic on individuals and society with reference to the understated effect of the Spanish flu; and articulating objections to the MMT inspired bid of the US to stimulate the economy by printing money. The economic argument against the strategic ineffectiveness of lockdowns is decisive. But somehow the author's investment advice is laughably simplistic and lowers his credibility as an economic commentator.
The wet market theory of the origin of the virus is put paid by the fact that animals sold in the markets were not found to be carriers of the relevant strain of virus. The Chinese government took aggressive steps to destroy lab samples and research records pertaining to work on coronaviruses being clandestinely carried out by Chinese researchers. The fact that the virus was not genetically engineered doesn't preclude the possibility that it was a naturally occurring virus isolated in a lab for routine research and leaked out due to inadequate safety protocols.
Alcohol and drug abuse have increased during the lockdown. Social symptoms of psychological distress related to pandemic inflicted unemployment, lockdown, and erosion of trust in public institutions are seen in increased instances of rioting and protest. We're likely to see more interclass conflict and anomic situations erupt in the coming years.
Lockdowns were sold with the slogan of flattening the curve without popular dissemination of the mathematical fact that this doesn't imply a decline in the number of total deaths. It merely means deaths happen at a lower rate over a longer duration of time; the net loss of life is identical irrespective of whether the curve is flat or steep. The curve flattening achieved by lockdowns merely added economic hardship to the burden of the pandemic hurting those not affected by the virus without helping those already affected by it.
The sophistical rhetoric of "saving grandma is more important that saving the economy" obscured the facts that the the number of lives saved did not increase on account of lockdowns and the number of lives lost and imperiled due to the economic downturn increased. Saving lives at all costs is not pragmatically or ethically warranted. Reducing the speed limit to 40MPH would save a huge number of lives but it is not considered a valid reason to reduce the speed limit given the attendant productivity losses we can expect. Banning all motor vehicles would save an even bigger number of lives; but the negative economic impact of abandoning motor transport is far too onerous to hand-wave away with lives-over-dollars bullshitting.
Finally, the author's criticism of MMT-friendly policy of printing money till the government can afford everything citizens need is both cogent and elegant. Indiscriminate printing of money causes inflation, while fiscalizing current expenditures erodes faith in the government's ability to honor its obligations in the future. The limit of fiscalizing debt is reached when additional securitized money no longer prompts businesses to invest, or customers to buy, because they see saving as the only way to meet future tax obligations which are the underlying of government debt spending. The extra money in the system eventually loses velocity [staying with the recipient rather than being invested in productive and consumption activities which are the material engine of real growth]. High inflation and low velocity trigger deflation, which governments hate because their printed money is worth less in real terms. Unfortunately, governments have no policy remedies for deflation.
The most interesting chapters, ironically for a book ostensibly about the economics of the pandemic, are about possible origin of the virus in a lab instead of wet markets; the psychological effect of the pandemic on individuals and society with reference to the understated effect of the Spanish flu; and articulating objections to the MMT inspired bid of the US to stimulate the economy by printing money. The economic argument against the strategic ineffectiveness of lockdowns is decisive. But somehow the author's investment advice is laughably simplistic and lowers his credibility as an economic commentator.
The wet market theory of the origin of the virus is put paid by the fact that animals sold in the markets were not found to be carriers of the relevant strain of virus. The Chinese government took aggressive steps to destroy lab samples and research records pertaining to work on coronaviruses being clandestinely carried out by Chinese researchers. The fact that the virus was not genetically engineered doesn't preclude the possibility that it was a naturally occurring virus isolated in a lab for routine research and leaked out due to inadequate safety protocols.
Alcohol and drug abuse have increased during the lockdown. Social symptoms of psychological distress related to pandemic inflicted unemployment, lockdown, and erosion of trust in public institutions are seen in increased instances of rioting and protest. We're likely to see more interclass conflict and anomic situations erupt in the coming years.
Lockdowns were sold with the slogan of flattening the curve without popular dissemination of the mathematical fact that this doesn't imply a decline in the number of total deaths. It merely means deaths happen at a lower rate over a longer duration of time; the net loss of life is identical irrespective of whether the curve is flat or steep. The curve flattening achieved by lockdowns merely added economic hardship to the burden of the pandemic hurting those not affected by the virus without helping those already affected by it.
The sophistical rhetoric of "saving grandma is more important that saving the economy" obscured the facts that the the number of lives saved did not increase on account of lockdowns and the number of lives lost and imperiled due to the economic downturn increased. Saving lives at all costs is not pragmatically or ethically warranted. Reducing the speed limit to 40MPH would save a huge number of lives but it is not considered a valid reason to reduce the speed limit given the attendant productivity losses we can expect. Banning all motor vehicles would save an even bigger number of lives; but the negative economic impact of abandoning motor transport is far too onerous to hand-wave away with lives-over-dollars bullshitting.
Finally, the author's criticism of MMT-friendly policy of printing money till the government can afford everything citizens need is both cogent and elegant. Indiscriminate printing of money causes inflation, while fiscalizing current expenditures erodes faith in the government's ability to honor its obligations in the future. The limit of fiscalizing debt is reached when additional securitized money no longer prompts businesses to invest, or customers to buy, because they see saving as the only way to meet future tax obligations which are the underlying of government debt spending. The extra money in the system eventually loses velocity [staying with the recipient rather than being invested in productive and consumption activities which are the material engine of real growth]. High inflation and low velocity trigger deflation, which governments hate because their printed money is worth less in real terms. Unfortunately, governments have no policy remedies for deflation.
September 19, 2021
As of the writing of this book review, we are all living in a time of a pandemic where a new coronavirus named COVID-19 has spread worldwide and infected millions of people. In addition to the negative health effects it has caused to people, the virus has also drastically cut down the life force of the world economy, making financial survival much more difficult. The best way to get through this challenging time is adaptation and learning how to make the most of the situation.
In "The New Great Depression", author James Rickards links together the massive impact of the pandemic on the economy and also how it affected the psychology of everyday people and business people alike. He writes about interesting observations he found out while studying the economy during the pandemic, some of which can be quite disturbing given that people's lives were on the line especially when the outbreak reached its high points in the year 2020. And all the while, the economy of the world was severely hit as a result of the precautionary measures taken (such as lockdowns, layoffs of employees, etc.) to stop the spread of the virus.
Not all hope is lost, however. Mr. Rickards provides readers with great history lessons from previous infectious disease outbreaks and economic disasters, in order to gain insight on how societies in those times adapted to the harsh situations. His research on both topics is clearly written and up to point as he avoids jargon so that readers can easily understand. He even compares the different solutions the societies of the past applied to their situations as he comes up with several options that people, businesses, and policymakers today can consider using.
The key point the author makes is that we must never give up. Even during the worst of crises we must strive to live our lives even if we must do so with caution. Medical and economical progression cannot happen if everybody resigns as a result of fear towards uncertainty. We must embrace the moment and figure out new ways to solve problems no matter how large. Smart investment techniques also count here, as Mr. Rickards gives some good investing tips and worthwhile forecasts to better help readers make decisions on protecting their financial well-being going forward.
All things considered, "The New Great Depression" is a book that was written in a time of worldwide distress and is predicted to be among the books that serve an importance for this current chapter of our history. As the world is still unclear about how exactly to solve this new virus problem, the book is a nice attempt at helping people understand the severity of the situation and at the same time letting everyone know that adaptation is still very important, as we all overcome the challenges brought forth by this devastating virus threat and fragile world economy. Highly recommended!
In "The New Great Depression", author James Rickards links together the massive impact of the pandemic on the economy and also how it affected the psychology of everyday people and business people alike. He writes about interesting observations he found out while studying the economy during the pandemic, some of which can be quite disturbing given that people's lives were on the line especially when the outbreak reached its high points in the year 2020. And all the while, the economy of the world was severely hit as a result of the precautionary measures taken (such as lockdowns, layoffs of employees, etc.) to stop the spread of the virus.
Not all hope is lost, however. Mr. Rickards provides readers with great history lessons from previous infectious disease outbreaks and economic disasters, in order to gain insight on how societies in those times adapted to the harsh situations. His research on both topics is clearly written and up to point as he avoids jargon so that readers can easily understand. He even compares the different solutions the societies of the past applied to their situations as he comes up with several options that people, businesses, and policymakers today can consider using.
The key point the author makes is that we must never give up. Even during the worst of crises we must strive to live our lives even if we must do so with caution. Medical and economical progression cannot happen if everybody resigns as a result of fear towards uncertainty. We must embrace the moment and figure out new ways to solve problems no matter how large. Smart investment techniques also count here, as Mr. Rickards gives some good investing tips and worthwhile forecasts to better help readers make decisions on protecting their financial well-being going forward.
All things considered, "The New Great Depression" is a book that was written in a time of worldwide distress and is predicted to be among the books that serve an importance for this current chapter of our history. As the world is still unclear about how exactly to solve this new virus problem, the book is a nice attempt at helping people understand the severity of the situation and at the same time letting everyone know that adaptation is still very important, as we all overcome the challenges brought forth by this devastating virus threat and fragile world economy. Highly recommended!
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