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8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World
A provocative description of the power of population change to create the conditions for societal transformation. As the world nears 8 billion people, the countries that have led the global order since World War II are becoming the most aged societies in human history. At the same time, the world’s poorest and least powerful countries are suffocating under an imbalance of population and resources. In 8 Billion and Counting , political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba argues that the story of the twenty-first century is less a story about exponential population growth, as the previous century was, than it is a story about differential growth―marked by a stark divide between the world’s richest and poorest countries. Drawing from decades of research, policy experience, and teaching, Sciubba employs stories and statistics to explain how demographic trends, like age structure and ethnic composition, are crucial signposts for future violence and peace, repression and democracy, poverty and prosperity. Although we have a diverse global population, demographic trends often follow predictable patterns that can help professionals across the corporate, nonprofit, government, and military sectors understand the global strategic environment. Through the lenses of national security, global health, and economics, Sciubba demonstrates the pitfalls of taking population numbers at face value and extrapolating from there. Instead, she argues, we must look at the forces in a society that amplify demographic trends and the forces that dilute them, particularly political institutions, or the rules of the game. She shows that the most important skills in demographic analysis are naming and being aware of your preferences, rethinking assumptions, and asking the right questions. Provocative and engrossing, 8 Billion and Counting is required reading for business leaders, policy makers, and anyone eager to anticipate political, economic, and social risks and opportunities. A deeper understanding of fertility, mortality, and migration promises to point toward the investments we need to make today to shape the future we want tomorrow.
304 pages, Hardcover
Published March 29, 2022
36 people are currently reading
692 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 21 of 21 reviews
May 23, 2022
This was about as interesting as a book about population trends could get. I think there was a good balance of anecdotes about cultural history of different countries and statistics. The description of the "golden opportunity window" in each nation's demographic transition was my favorite section. Essentially, as fertility rates start to drop, a population will have a period of 30-50 years with a high proportion of working age citizens (and low numbers of children and elderly). Many countries in SouthEast Asia and even the USA saw their economies balloon while going through this window.
February 24, 2025
Jennifer D. Sciubba, currently President and CEO of Population Reference Bureau, is a political demographer. She is a leading expert in how population trends and composition affect politics and social relations -- and vice versa. This is what makes her analysis more interesting than your run-of-the-mill books on demography. My own background was originally in population geography, so the fundamentals that Sciubba explains in the book are very familiar to me.
Beyond those fundamentals, there is a lot of interesting and insightful in the book. For example, Sciubba points out that neither rapid population growth nor aging are per se not inherently problematic. Instead, their impact depends on the governance, political and economic circumstances. While fertility has dropped to below replacement levles, resulting in population shrinkage without immigration in most parts of the world (including Europe, North America, Japan, China, even Brazil), it remains very high in most of Africa where the societies' ability to accommodate the large cohorts of new entrants into labor force are generally weak. Sub-Saharan Africa contines to be the place with the largest growth in population. Almost 90% of world's population growth until mid-century will take place in lower-middle and low-income countries. This will pose challenges in terms of political stability and pressures to migrate. Sciubba also points out that it is not to poorest people from the poorest countries who migrate, because migration requires a certain amount of financial resources as well as skills to navigate the complex challenges of international migration. This fact casts doubt on the oft-heard justification for foreign aid to help people where they are, so that they will be discouraged to move.
A feature that makes Sciubba's book a lively read is her ample use of historical and current examples to demonstrate the more technical or theoretical points. They range from the impacts of China's one-child policy to the Rwandan genocide; from the relationship between aging societies and peace, to implications of Nigeria's youthful population. (I have to point out an odd slip: At one point, Sciubba places the southern African country of Botswana in the Sahel.)
Although Sciubba mentions climate change in several places, as acting as a stressor and as a driver of migration, it features fairly little in the book. That of course could be the focus of a separate book in itself.
A worthwhile and entertaining read, I'd recommend this book to anyone interesting in how population trends, fertility, mortality and migration shape society all over the world.
Beyond those fundamentals, there is a lot of interesting and insightful in the book. For example, Sciubba points out that neither rapid population growth nor aging are per se not inherently problematic. Instead, their impact depends on the governance, political and economic circumstances. While fertility has dropped to below replacement levles, resulting in population shrinkage without immigration in most parts of the world (including Europe, North America, Japan, China, even Brazil), it remains very high in most of Africa where the societies' ability to accommodate the large cohorts of new entrants into labor force are generally weak. Sub-Saharan Africa contines to be the place with the largest growth in population. Almost 90% of world's population growth until mid-century will take place in lower-middle and low-income countries. This will pose challenges in terms of political stability and pressures to migrate. Sciubba also points out that it is not to poorest people from the poorest countries who migrate, because migration requires a certain amount of financial resources as well as skills to navigate the complex challenges of international migration. This fact casts doubt on the oft-heard justification for foreign aid to help people where they are, so that they will be discouraged to move.
A feature that makes Sciubba's book a lively read is her ample use of historical and current examples to demonstrate the more technical or theoretical points. They range from the impacts of China's one-child policy to the Rwandan genocide; from the relationship between aging societies and peace, to implications of Nigeria's youthful population. (I have to point out an odd slip: At one point, Sciubba places the southern African country of Botswana in the Sahel.)
Although Sciubba mentions climate change in several places, as acting as a stressor and as a driver of migration, it features fairly little in the book. That of course could be the focus of a separate book in itself.
A worthwhile and entertaining read, I'd recommend this book to anyone interesting in how population trends, fertility, mortality and migration shape society all over the world.
March 10, 2023
Exceptionally researched, with informed perspective and argument throughout. The author’s tone and voice changed back and from from academic, to conversational, and even a little crass, but it was perhaps a reflection of how the author feels about demographics. The arguments about government misinterpretation of demographics models starts well, but becomes more of a reaction rather than a well-defended counterargument. Still, this is a great book to appreciate alternative perspectives on the need to grasp demographics as part of national strategy and international politics. I recommend it.
May 6, 2022
An absolutely wonderful introduction to demography. Highly recommended to anyone interested in issues of population around the world, even though I don't endorse every claim made by the author.
November 7, 2022
This book felt a little surface-level to me, but that's probably because I am a little too interested in this topic and so am familiar with eveyrthing explained and theorized in here.
November 26, 2024
I picked this book up on kind of a lark, because it was mentioned in an article I read somewhere about birth rates. I was in the mood to go on an adventure into a non-fiction space I didn’t know much about. I didn’t really think, when I started reading, that there would be enough in the subject to hold my attention. I did not expect to finish the book.
What I found instead was a super fascinating take on one of the major factors that impact geopolitics. It reminds me of another favorite of mine, Prisoner’s of Geography, in its ability to explain far-reaching global trends through one particular lens. Definitely going on my “how the world works” book list.
Some interesting take-aways:
- countries in the modern era go through a demographic change where medicine (or access to it) improves, children start living through childhood, fertility decreases to around or below replacement rate (2 kids per 1 woman).
- During this later period, there’s a demographic bulge as those children reach working age and they have fewer children to care for than previous generations. This creates a “worker bonus” which can be leveraged thru shrewd public and economic policy to catapult the country forward economically.
> Economists have estimated that Asia’s demographic transition was responsible for somewhere between 33 and 44 percent of the East Asian economic miracle that catapulted the region to the powerhouse it is today.
- once a country is at that replacement rate point, there is a correlation between government support for working mothers and children. I think S Korea was the example of what not to do (they have the lowest birth rate in the world, tied w Taiwan, at 1.1 babies per woman).
Other interesting things:
- her frank discussion of immigration and the refugee/asylum laws currently being (more or less) followed globally. I learned a lot here, possibly because of the global context instead of just the highly politicized American context.
- “demographics are not destiny” especially in the context of aging populations. There’s a frontier here that makes it hard to predict what’s going to happen as many of the current global powerhouses age (Japan in the lead, China, the US, and much of Europe following). There are also some countries with demographic bulges coming up that are not poised to employ their excess workers which could lead to a youth unemployment surge, possibly precipitating political changes
- the idea that the renaissance may have been largely due to demographic resurgence in Europe a few generations post-plague. This aligns with the renaissance starting in Italy and spreading north, just like the plague did…
Read this if you: like understanding how the world works thru one particular lens, find demographic changes (and the policy around them) interesting/alarming, you’re just looking for an interesting non-fiction read
What I found instead was a super fascinating take on one of the major factors that impact geopolitics. It reminds me of another favorite of mine, Prisoner’s of Geography, in its ability to explain far-reaching global trends through one particular lens. Definitely going on my “how the world works” book list.
Some interesting take-aways:
- countries in the modern era go through a demographic change where medicine (or access to it) improves, children start living through childhood, fertility decreases to around or below replacement rate (2 kids per 1 woman).
- During this later period, there’s a demographic bulge as those children reach working age and they have fewer children to care for than previous generations. This creates a “worker bonus” which can be leveraged thru shrewd public and economic policy to catapult the country forward economically.
> Economists have estimated that Asia’s demographic transition was responsible for somewhere between 33 and 44 percent of the East Asian economic miracle that catapulted the region to the powerhouse it is today.
- once a country is at that replacement rate point, there is a correlation between government support for working mothers and children. I think S Korea was the example of what not to do (they have the lowest birth rate in the world, tied w Taiwan, at 1.1 babies per woman).
Other interesting things:
- her frank discussion of immigration and the refugee/asylum laws currently being (more or less) followed globally. I learned a lot here, possibly because of the global context instead of just the highly politicized American context.
- “demographics are not destiny” especially in the context of aging populations. There’s a frontier here that makes it hard to predict what’s going to happen as many of the current global powerhouses age (Japan in the lead, China, the US, and much of Europe following). There are also some countries with demographic bulges coming up that are not poised to employ their excess workers which could lead to a youth unemployment surge, possibly precipitating political changes
- the idea that the renaissance may have been largely due to demographic resurgence in Europe a few generations post-plague. This aligns with the renaissance starting in Italy and spreading north, just like the plague did…
Read this if you: like understanding how the world works thru one particular lens, find demographic changes (and the policy around them) interesting/alarming, you’re just looking for an interesting non-fiction read
April 6, 2024
"8 Billion and Counting" starts off with a troubling red flag for a book supposedly based on a careful study of global population statistics. I'll admit I'm listening to an audiobook from the library and I can't see if the author cites any references, so please let me know if I missed something--seriously.
The author makes the extraordinary claim that life expectancy at birth in the Year 1 was 10! This is such a big truthiness bomb that the author needs to explain it beyond reciting the shibboleth about how life used to be "nasty, brutish and short." A quick look at Wikipedia's page on life expectancy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_ex...) will tell you that even in prehistoric times, life expectancy ranged up to 30 or so. I'm willing to believe that it went down during the Roman Empire, but 10 seems crazy. Anyway, if true, it would undermine the premise of the "nasty, brutish, and short" narrative about life improving steadily over time with economic progress.
Life expectancy has gone up and down historically. Lately in the the US, it has been going down. One could argue that demographics change with social conditions. Overall this book makes the case for seeing things the other way around. It's probably both/and. Either way, one should be careful to separate objective data from political interpretation.
Alternatively:
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
The author makes the extraordinary claim that life expectancy at birth in the Year 1 was 10! This is such a big truthiness bomb that the author needs to explain it beyond reciting the shibboleth about how life used to be "nasty, brutish and short." A quick look at Wikipedia's page on life expectancy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_ex...) will tell you that even in prehistoric times, life expectancy ranged up to 30 or so. I'm willing to believe that it went down during the Roman Empire, but 10 seems crazy. Anyway, if true, it would undermine the premise of the "nasty, brutish, and short" narrative about life improving steadily over time with economic progress.
Life expectancy has gone up and down historically. Lately in the the US, it has been going down. One could argue that demographics change with social conditions. Overall this book makes the case for seeing things the other way around. It's probably both/and. Either way, one should be careful to separate objective data from political interpretation.
Alternatively:
Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
July 14, 2022
A fascinating look into how global demographics can give us an understanding of our past, present and future.
Why is our world the way it is today and where is it going?
Some of the answers can be found in studying how fertility rates, life expectancy, migration, politics and other factors influence population growth, shrinkage and movement.
Jennifer concludes that:
- population size matters
- people move in predictable patterns
- the world is urban
- an aging world is coming
- policies can shape the future we want
- the demographic divide will shape the fortune of countries
Why is our world the way it is today and where is it going?
Some of the answers can be found in studying how fertility rates, life expectancy, migration, politics and other factors influence population growth, shrinkage and movement.
Jennifer concludes that:
- population size matters
- people move in predictable patterns
- the world is urban
- an aging world is coming
- policies can shape the future we want
- the demographic divide will shape the fortune of countries
January 29, 2023
The book provides a decent survey of demography as it relates to the current situations of the world. The author seems fair and does not take a strong stance on controversial topics such as the effect of demographic shift or skewed sex balance on social dynamics and stability of a country. These topics are discussed only in light of whatever general conclusions that demographers could make from the best of their current knowledge, i.e., only superficial. That may not be satisfying for those who were hoping to dig deeper.
November 29, 2022
Population is the foundation of our society. This book helps delving into the complex topic of demographic changes in order to understand patterns and shifts of past, present and future. I appreciated the effect of “connecting the dots” which gives a global overview of the situation. Indeed, as the author states: “Population size matters” for both the good and the bad. Being aware of this won’t hurt…
September 20, 2022
Author talks about how the birth rate, aging/young population and healthcare impacts the economy of nations. It provides nuanced account of effect of birth rates, replacement rates etc. on the dynamics of a nation. It also provides a nuanced look at different factors affecting birth rate, death rate etc.
October 13, 2023
tbh some parts were really good. i enjoyed the warfare and wombfare chapter the most - it was really cool seeing how current conflicts could be explained through demographics. other parts were boring and not quite as interesting. overall, it was very informative and a great way to become more aware of the powerful demographic influences on our world. would not reread the whole thing though.
March 19, 2025
This book goes beyond simply addressing the issue of overpopulation. It provides a comprehensive examination of how the composition of a population affects various aspects of society, including economics, politics, and culture. While the primary focus is on age demographics, it also explores other influences such as religion and artificial divisions created by external forces. This book is essential reading for anyone aspiring to hold public office.
January 22, 2023
Really interesting statistics and different ways population is affected. Great facts I didn’t know like Vietnamese people representation in nail tech field.
I did audio on this, but I think reading it would have been better to have a firmer grasp on numbers and seeing charts.
I did audio on this, but I think reading it would have been better to have a firmer grasp on numbers and seeing charts.
June 3, 2022
If you like population demographics, this is a good read!
March 28, 2024
Author is speaking at pawac! On April 11th
Read
May 12, 2024This was such a fascinating read and was such a different experience from the readings I'd have to do during the academic semester!
August 14, 2024
Well presented essential information - so much food for thought. I plan to recommend it to friends.
August 31, 2024
Great inspection of how our life stats impact our civilization.
February 14, 2025
I really enjoy demography and this is a great overview of what's happening--especially trends. Recommend for anyone interested in this topic.
March 13, 2025
Dry but fascinating!
Displaying 1 - 21 of 21 reviews