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What are the Chances of That?: How to Think About Uncertainty
Chance fills every day of our lives and affects every decision we make.
Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time.
Elliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There's discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, What are the Chances of That? is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected - through chance.
What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five “dualities” that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.
Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time.
Elliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There's discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, What are the Chances of That? is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected - through chance.
What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five “dualities” that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.
384 pages, Hardcover
Published October 25, 2021
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18 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
March 13, 2024
This book is superb at explaining the conceptual paradoxes in probability. Written by an actuary, you know you are in a safe pair of hands. Risks feature prominently. The philosophical dissections are both beautiful and illuminating. The author’s erudite style makes it even more enjoyable. His clarity is tantalising. He also assumes that readers who have already picked it up are familiar with some basic probability principles.
Most chapters are accompanied by a probability-related question for the reader to crack. Only high school level arithmetic is required. They are fun to solve and really highlight the meaning of the underlying mathematics. The emphasis is on understanding rather than mere calculation.
Just what exactly are concepts such as chance, risk, luck, randomness, serendipity, and creativity? These are all answered, at least in my opinion, satisfactorily. Illustrative examples abound and can easily be grasped.
The veracity of a handful of anecdotes and comments are questionable. These are trivial and in no way diminish the book’s achievements.
In any case, the concepts that the book explains are actually quite profound. Fields discussed include music, scientific discovery, finance, and many more. I wouldn’t be surprised if the reader finds some answers to life’s deepest existential questions within the concepts explained in this interdisciplinary masterpiece.
Most chapters are accompanied by a probability-related question for the reader to crack. Only high school level arithmetic is required. They are fun to solve and really highlight the meaning of the underlying mathematics. The emphasis is on understanding rather than mere calculation.
Just what exactly are concepts such as chance, risk, luck, randomness, serendipity, and creativity? These are all answered, at least in my opinion, satisfactorily. Illustrative examples abound and can easily be grasped.
The veracity of a handful of anecdotes and comments are questionable. These are trivial and in no way diminish the book’s achievements.
In any case, the concepts that the book explains are actually quite profound. Fields discussed include music, scientific discovery, finance, and many more. I wouldn’t be surprised if the reader finds some answers to life’s deepest existential questions within the concepts explained in this interdisciplinary masterpiece.
March 30, 2022
Verbose and digressive. Using long episodes to make simple points. Exasperated.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews