What do you think?
Rate this book
Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias―the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples―minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.
- GenresNonfictionScience
296 pages, Hardcover
First published October 19, 2021
48 people are currently reading
1160 people want to read
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 30 of 31 reviews
November 17, 2021
I won this book in a goodreads giveaway!
It might be closer to 2.5, though. I suppose it quite thoroughly outlines survivor bias, and I'm not sure what exactly I expected to learn from it, given that I already know about survivor bias. But it was mostly just example after example, and even a few of them I'm not sure how well they fit. But I did learn about Mary Toft of Godalming, so I guess that makes it all worth it.
It might be closer to 2.5, though. I suppose it quite thoroughly outlines survivor bias, and I'm not sure what exactly I expected to learn from it, given that I already know about survivor bias. But it was mostly just example after example, and even a few of them I'm not sure how well they fit. But I did learn about Mary Toft of Godalming, so I guess that makes it all worth it.
January 15, 2023
I don't find the book is full-on hardcore on survivor bias but I've learned more about other bits of history through this book, so I'm bumper it up to 4 stars. I'm going to start bearing this concept in mind for work and everything I do e.g. having a discourse (arguing) with friends.
April 22, 2025
The first half of this book was interesting, but the second part was hard to get through. I came away with some interesting ideas though it wasn’t what I thought it would be.
January 29, 2023
A thorough (albeit sometimes dry) examination of survivor bias throughout history and how we are impacted by the limited data we receive. We, as human beings, would all greatly benefit from comprehending what this book details. There isn’t anyone I wouldn’t recommend this to.
May 3, 2023
Somewhat Useful
The first 4 chapters described some useful scenarios in which considering survival bias makes a significant difference in outcome likelihood. The next 2 chapters describe some historical scenarios regarding survival bias. These were interesting but not particularly useful to me. The remaining 6 chapters were apocalyptic musings regarding pseudo scientific fads like evolution, climate change, alien life, and multiverses that were of no use to me.
The first 4 chapters described some useful scenarios in which considering survival bias makes a significant difference in outcome likelihood. The next 2 chapters describe some historical scenarios regarding survival bias. These were interesting but not particularly useful to me. The remaining 6 chapters were apocalyptic musings regarding pseudo scientific fads like evolution, climate change, alien life, and multiverses that were of no use to me.
January 8, 2022
I’m not even sure what to write about this book 😂 First section was very interesting! Loved the premise behind it. Lots of great anecdotes and information. Second section...Oh, nice. This is just another we’re-all-going-to-die-from-global-warming book. Last section was all about quantum mechanics and multiple universes?!
I quite literally was rolling with laughter when I finished this book.
I quite literally was rolling with laughter when I finished this book.
October 23, 2021
I won this book in a Goodreads giveaway. My review will be somewhat of a synopsis, but try to avoid over-explaining because the book is worth reading.
The book discusses an interesting concept, how we as humans come to conclusions based on what the author calls "survivor bias". The main argument he is trying to make is how events are defined by success or perceived success and the information provided from failures is neglected, thus we as humans do not accurately measure the whole picture based on situations. He uses examples from finance, self help books, lotteries, medicine, and history for the first half, the all knowing survivor bias. The second part deals with the first person limited perspective and discusses evolution, nuclear war, global warming, extra terrestrials, and quantum mechanics.
The first part is interesting, and I confess the finance aspect was hard for me to follow, but the others were interesting. The self help and lottery books did not really bring anything new, as they were explained as a marketing scheme to convince people to buy into hope and find quick solutions to lifetimes of woes. The medicine chapter was interesting in how it discusses the hiding of failed medical trials and how the justification for ignoring failed medical trial does not warrant discussion because it did not achieve an improvement in medicine. The author argues (correctly) that ineffective medicines can be marketed without non medical people knowing they are ineffective, because journals do not share this information. The history chapter was familiar, and feels the strongest of the chapters in part I because in social studies education, they often leave out or edit to fit an agenda the "losers" perspective in history. For social studies educators, this chapter should be a must read.
For Part II, the author explained concepts I was not knowledgable of, and while I did not agree with some chapters, overall this section was successful at identifying aspects of survivor bias. The weakest chapter in this section, and in my opinion the whole book was the global warming chapter. While I could make out what the author was going for, the chapter struggled to fit with the others and alternated between government responsibility and individual responsibility. This, in addition to not fully unfolding yet, as there are changes that can be done to remedy the situation, made it hard to call at this point in time. If the author revisits the topic in another decade or so, this chapter could become stronger, I think. The strongest chapter and most successful chapter to me was the final chapter, which discusses the multiple world theory, wraps up the book quite nicely and helps hammer home the point the author tries to make. This argues that if a specific event or moment goes slightly different, the world as we know it could be vastly different. To illustrate this, the author uses examples from the previous chapters, and explains how even a minor change could create a different reality from the one we are in, and how our perspective focuses mainly on the successful reality we currently are living.
While some chapters did not click with me, I understand the need for their inclusion, because they can appeal to other people. The book is written in a way where you could pick and choose specific chapters to read and not miss the entire message of the book. I would compare it to a collection of essays with survivor bias being an over-arching theme. To me, the History chapter and Quantum mechanics chapters are must read, the medicine and evolution chapter being worth the read, the rest being worth reading if they interest you, and the global warming chapter being revisited at a later date.
The book discusses an interesting concept, how we as humans come to conclusions based on what the author calls "survivor bias". The main argument he is trying to make is how events are defined by success or perceived success and the information provided from failures is neglected, thus we as humans do not accurately measure the whole picture based on situations. He uses examples from finance, self help books, lotteries, medicine, and history for the first half, the all knowing survivor bias. The second part deals with the first person limited perspective and discusses evolution, nuclear war, global warming, extra terrestrials, and quantum mechanics.
The first part is interesting, and I confess the finance aspect was hard for me to follow, but the others were interesting. The self help and lottery books did not really bring anything new, as they were explained as a marketing scheme to convince people to buy into hope and find quick solutions to lifetimes of woes. The medicine chapter was interesting in how it discusses the hiding of failed medical trials and how the justification for ignoring failed medical trial does not warrant discussion because it did not achieve an improvement in medicine. The author argues (correctly) that ineffective medicines can be marketed without non medical people knowing they are ineffective, because journals do not share this information. The history chapter was familiar, and feels the strongest of the chapters in part I because in social studies education, they often leave out or edit to fit an agenda the "losers" perspective in history. For social studies educators, this chapter should be a must read.
For Part II, the author explained concepts I was not knowledgable of, and while I did not agree with some chapters, overall this section was successful at identifying aspects of survivor bias. The weakest chapter in this section, and in my opinion the whole book was the global warming chapter. While I could make out what the author was going for, the chapter struggled to fit with the others and alternated between government responsibility and individual responsibility. This, in addition to not fully unfolding yet, as there are changes that can be done to remedy the situation, made it hard to call at this point in time. If the author revisits the topic in another decade or so, this chapter could become stronger, I think. The strongest chapter and most successful chapter to me was the final chapter, which discusses the multiple world theory, wraps up the book quite nicely and helps hammer home the point the author tries to make. This argues that if a specific event or moment goes slightly different, the world as we know it could be vastly different. To illustrate this, the author uses examples from the previous chapters, and explains how even a minor change could create a different reality from the one we are in, and how our perspective focuses mainly on the successful reality we currently are living.
While some chapters did not click with me, I understand the need for their inclusion, because they can appeal to other people. The book is written in a way where you could pick and choose specific chapters to read and not miss the entire message of the book. I would compare it to a collection of essays with survivor bias being an over-arching theme. To me, the History chapter and Quantum mechanics chapters are must read, the medicine and evolution chapter being worth the read, the rest being worth reading if they interest you, and the global warming chapter being revisited at a later date.
June 28, 2022
Невероятно интересна книга с много какво да научите от нея. Авторът обяснява как т. нар. "survivor bias" заблуждава всички ни в най-различни сфери от живота ни - хората забелязват само победителите, успешните в дадено начинание, оцелелите след дадено премеждие и т.н., но не обръщат внимание на провалилите се и загиналите. Това значително изкривява нашите представи от истината и е добре онагледено в книгата с десетки примери от историята, медицината, войните, бизнеса, спорта и дори от квантовата механика.
Един по-интересен пример е как през Втората световна война съюзниците решават, че е необходимо да заздравят своите самолети с допълнителна броня. Първоначално забелязват определени зони, където най-често се срещат куршуми при завърналите се самолети и допускат, че тези зони имат най-голяма нужда от укрепяване. Те обаче са заблудени от победителите (в този случай завърналите се самолети), защото не обръщат внимание на стотиците други паднали самолети, които не са се прибрали, след като са били ударени в други по-слаби места. Това се установява от математикът Абрахам Валд, който разбира, че всъщност най-засегнатите от куршуми зони всъщност са сред най-здравите, тъй като все пак машините се завръщат успешно.
Авторът пише увлекателно и включва много интересни разкази за исторически личности и събития. Определено препоръчвам книгата.
Един по-интересен пример е как през Втората световна война съюзниците решават, че е необходимо да заздравят своите самолети с допълнителна броня. Първоначално забелязват определени зони, където най-често се срещат куршуми при завърналите се самолети и допускат, че тези зони имат най-голяма нужда от укрепяване. Те обаче са заблудени от победителите (в този случай завърналите се самолети), защото не обръщат внимание на стотиците други паднали самолети, които не са се прибрали, след като са били ударени в други по-слаби места. Това се установява от математикът Абрахам Валд, който разбира, че всъщност най-засегнатите от куршуми зони всъщност са сред най-здравите, тъй като все пак машините се завръщат успешно.
Авторът пише увлекателно и включва много интересни разкази за исторически личности и събития. Определено препоръчвам книгата.
January 23, 2022
I preface this review by stating that I received a free copy of this book through a Goodreads giveaway.
2.5 out of 5 Stars
This book started out strong, but it got lost along the way. Early on, the author explains the concept of "survivor bias" (the idea that we pay more attention to positive outcomes, rather than also noticing what we can learn from negative outcomes) and provides easy to understand examples. There is a summary of sorts at the end of each chapter, but as the book progressed, this summary was also being used to mention something coming up in the next chapter. I think the author would have been bettered served to stick to the summary and skip the preview because the first time this happened, I was confused and thought that maybe my book was missing a chapter. The further I got into the book, the more it felt like the author had strayed away from illustrating what can be learned from the "losers" and into his opinion and hypotheticals.
2.5 out of 5 Stars
This book started out strong, but it got lost along the way. Early on, the author explains the concept of "survivor bias" (the idea that we pay more attention to positive outcomes, rather than also noticing what we can learn from negative outcomes) and provides easy to understand examples. There is a summary of sorts at the end of each chapter, but as the book progressed, this summary was also being used to mention something coming up in the next chapter. I think the author would have been bettered served to stick to the summary and skip the preview because the first time this happened, I was confused and thought that maybe my book was missing a chapter. The further I got into the book, the more it felt like the author had strayed away from illustrating what can be learned from the "losers" and into his opinion and hypotheticals.
January 27, 2022
I received a Kindle copy of this book from Goodreads to review. Most have us have heard the phrase, "History is written by the winners." In this book, author David Lockwood takes us one step further, proposing that such history may be misleading. By concentrating only on the winners, we miss what can be learned from examining the losers. He demonstrates this by a simple example: when WWI helmets were changed from cloth or leather to metal, the number of head injuries went up. In fact, the number of head injuries was the same, it was the number of injured survivors that went up. Previously, some of those survivors would otherwise have died if they were not wearing the new metal helmets, and would not have been counted. The book outlines this principle in greater or lesser detail in chapters on a wide variety of topics, from financial services, self-help books, and ESP to medicine and history.
April 15, 2022
An interesting look at survivor bias and how it impacts our decision making and our perception of the world around us. Breaking the discussion into two parts, first from a position as strictly an observer and second as a participant that survives. We focus on the winners and minimize or ignore the losers which influences our behavior on everything from diets and self help books, to financial services, warfare, and even the search for extra-terrestrial life. Full of lots of examples including the study of helmets in WWI and bombers in WWII as well as ESP, quantum mechanics, Fermi's principle, and even Schrodinger's cat that relate this complex topic without the complex math that underlies it. I received a free Kindle version of this book through the Goodreads First Reads giveaways. I would rate this book 3.5 stars if Goodreads allowed half stars.
December 27, 2023
One of my biggest peeves with self help books is anecdotal recounts. This one however pulls many factual stories throughout history and current affairs to illustrate survivor bias in action. In my opinion survivor bias isn't complicated but something we all fall prey to.
This book was definitely in a way an overkill to illustrate a simple concept as such, but I learned so much. The author also has a humorous wit about him, which I enjoyed.
What I hoped the author had included was a deep dive into WHY humans fall prey to survivor bias, and in which situations would it be more dire to be victim to it.
We all have various biases of sorts we live with consciously or not, but I think it is too simplistic to say survivor bias is completely bad. I am sure there are situations where it can help us.
Overall I recommend the book.
This book was definitely in a way an overkill to illustrate a simple concept as such, but I learned so much. The author also has a humorous wit about him, which I enjoyed.
What I hoped the author had included was a deep dive into WHY humans fall prey to survivor bias, and in which situations would it be more dire to be victim to it.
We all have various biases of sorts we live with consciously or not, but I think it is too simplistic to say survivor bias is completely bad. I am sure there are situations where it can help us.
Overall I recommend the book.
April 1, 2025
The first half of the book was incredibly interesting. The author delved into historical instances of survival bias including developing protective armor for WWII bombers, money market managers, the Japanese lab in WWII which conducted deadly biological warfare experiments on US POW's, and other interesting historical events - very reminiscent of Malcom Gladwell's books . However, the 2nd half of the book contained the author's meandering semi scientific topics like evolution, climate change, alien life, and multiverses that significantly lowered my enjoyment of the book. It should be pointed out that Mr. Lockwood was a faculty member of the Stanford School of Business specializing in Game Theory and not a trained scientist so I completely ignored his illogical rejection of God and the other topics described in my last sentence.
October 31, 2021
This was a GoodReads giveaway win of a Kindle ebook.
I really liked this book, but I also suffer from conformational bias. Basically, it confirms many thoughts that shape my decisions. It does highlight some items that I did not really think much about. I did like the WWII bomber example. I did not know much about Hedge Fund Managers. I liked the examples. I thought it was a bit too opinionated toward the end, but that is the optimist in me.
Yeah, about Lotteries. I don't buy tickets for myself, but I still always buy into those office pools. The odds are minuscule, but the last thing I want is to have my coworkers win and leave me the only person at work.
I will have to give my future decisions more thought after reading this book.
This was a GoodReads.
I really liked this book, but I also suffer from conformational bias. Basically, it confirms many thoughts that shape my decisions. It does highlight some items that I did not really think much about. I did like the WWII bomber example. I did not know much about Hedge Fund Managers. I liked the examples. I thought it was a bit too opinionated toward the end, but that is the optimist in me.
Yeah, about Lotteries. I don't buy tickets for myself, but I still always buy into those office pools. The odds are minuscule, but the last thing I want is to have my coworkers win and leave me the only person at work.
I will have to give my future decisions more thought after reading this book.
This was a GoodReads.
November 6, 2023
Starts great, then starts to go sideways
The book starts really well. It has an amazing mathematical description of survivor bias and a ton of very quantitative examples.
But then it loses it's way.
About half way through, the author shifts to philosophical and preachy. The downfall's apex is a long lecture on the history and folly of nuclear weapons with an "oh, yeah, this is survivor bias" shoved in at the end.
I was disappointed based on the start. It set up expectations the author couldn't sustain.
And the sad part is, the author should know better. The highly opinionated sections fell victim to other logical fallacies just as serious as survivor bias, but the author couldn't bring himself to acknowledge them.
I'd read the first 4 chapters and stop.
The book starts really well. It has an amazing mathematical description of survivor bias and a ton of very quantitative examples.
But then it loses it's way.
About half way through, the author shifts to philosophical and preachy. The downfall's apex is a long lecture on the history and folly of nuclear weapons with an "oh, yeah, this is survivor bias" shoved in at the end.
I was disappointed based on the start. It set up expectations the author couldn't sustain.
And the sad part is, the author should know better. The highly opinionated sections fell victim to other logical fallacies just as serious as survivor bias, but the author couldn't bring himself to acknowledge them.
I'd read the first 4 chapters and stop.
August 6, 2022
Going in i didnt have any expectations about the book or knowledge of the wording of survivor bias. And i agree with some this book left me confused trying to figure out what i was reading. In the beginning it has alot to do with the stock market and some key players within. This book is just a reminder that history repeats itself. We see peoples successes and try to follow in their foot steps so we can have the same success but often this leads to failure and then more bad advise. "we should not be fooled by the winners" look at the attempts of success from those who failed learn from them
October 22, 2021
Excellent point
Fooled by the Winners makes the point that most people learn from those who succeed. The truth is that just as much, if not more, can be learned from the losers. Lockwood applies this notion to the stock market. It can be applied in most aspects of life.
I recommend this book to stock market professionals and to their clients. Everyone could benefit from this book.
I won this book in a Goodreads giveaway.
Fooled by the Winners makes the point that most people learn from those who succeed. The truth is that just as much, if not more, can be learned from the losers. Lockwood applies this notion to the stock market. It can be applied in most aspects of life.
I recommend this book to stock market professionals and to their clients. Everyone could benefit from this book.
I won this book in a Goodreads giveaway.
October 31, 2021
This book shows us how survivor bias leads us to make incorrect decisions. Parts of this book were interesting, and other parts veered off course and lost my interest. This book has a unique premise, but I felt that it could have been executed better.
I received this book as a Goodreads giveaway. Yay!
I received this book as a Goodreads giveaway. Yay!
June 15, 2022
Very good and diverse book packed with examples. This book touches such a vast spectrum that it can be related to a majority of people. Read it snd you’ll see. It also reminds the reader to not only focus on what can be seen as a winner, but to take into account what lost and all the variables in between. The last chapter is kinda where it lost me, but respect the effort put into it.
July 3, 2022
Wow I loved this book. So much to think about and I wish I had someone to discuss it with.
The whole idea of survivor bias has been something that's bothered me a lot. It seems so obvious to me, but seems to be ignored a lot.
I love that this books has so many references and footnotes (endnotes? I'm not sure; I read it as an e-book.)
The whole idea of survivor bias has been something that's bothered me a lot. It seems so obvious to me, but seems to be ignored a lot.
I love that this books has so many references and footnotes (endnotes? I'm not sure; I read it as an e-book.)
March 14, 2025
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.
Fooled by the Winners provides practical insights and strategies that are easy to understand and apply in real-world situations. It's a valuable resource for anyone looking to improve their skills and approach to business challenges.
I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.
Fooled by the Winners provides practical insights and strategies that are easy to understand and apply in real-world situations. It's a valuable resource for anyone looking to improve their skills and approach to business challenges.
November 19, 2021
Goodreads Giveaway Win, Did not Finish
20 pages in and I gave up. I got it for the actual survivor stories of soldiers and such and got way to much wall street. To those who did survive I am sorry I will never read your story.
20 pages in and I gave up. I got it for the actual survivor stories of soldiers and such and got way to much wall street. To those who did survive I am sorry I will never read your story.
November 30, 2021
Survival Bias
A thought provoking book. One may not necessarily agree with everything written here, but it should give one pause to think about the possibility of being influenced by survival bias.
I received a complementary copy via #GoodreadsGiveaway.
A thought provoking book. One may not necessarily agree with everything written here, but it should give one pause to think about the possibility of being influenced by survival bias.
I received a complementary copy via #GoodreadsGiveaway.
December 22, 2021
I won this Kindle book through a goodreads giveaway. Had never heard of survivor bias and it made me curious. Overall, it was clearly written and an entertaining read. I was expecting a discussion on how winners write history and it delivered. This can be a good pick for a book club.
December 31, 2021
Fascinating, but not cheerful
This book is an intriguing look at survival bias and the ways it can deceive us. However, if you want something cheerful or encouraging, this is not the book for you.
This book is an intriguing look at survival bias and the ways it can deceive us. However, if you want something cheerful or encouraging, this is not the book for you.
April 6, 2022
Came for stories about survival, and maybe learning about survivor bias. Left confused on what this dude was rambling on about. I also get it, you worked on Wall Street good for you 👍
*received from a Goodreads giveaway*
*received from a Goodreads giveaway*
April 20, 2022
Lost steam
The book started out great. It was concise and clear. It caused me to stop and think about survivor bias in other aspects of our world. Then it started to get bogged down in unnecessary numbers and got way off track.
#GoodreadsGiveaway
The book started out great. It was concise and clear. It caused me to stop and think about survivor bias in other aspects of our world. Then it started to get bogged down in unnecessary numbers and got way off track.
#GoodreadsGiveaway
October 24, 2021
Good read
February 28, 2024
I tried so hard to like this and finish it, but life is too short and my TBR is too long to push through this slog.
December 24, 2021
I received this book through Goodreads' Giveaway Program.
I thought the first part of the book was interesting that lots of studies and books neglect the failures and only look at the survivors. I think the author has valid point that failures may do many of the same things successes do. For completeness a study should look at both failures and successes to determine the differences.
The last part of the book deviated from survivor bias and discussed the possibility of this world as a survivor. Lots of speculation and no discussion of an intelligent creator, which might explain many of the questions in the book.
I thought the first part of the book was interesting that lots of studies and books neglect the failures and only look at the survivors. I think the author has valid point that failures may do many of the same things successes do. For completeness a study should look at both failures and successes to determine the differences.
The last part of the book deviated from survivor bias and discussed the possibility of this world as a survivor. Lots of speculation and no discussion of an intelligent creator, which might explain many of the questions in the book.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 31 reviews