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Küresel Robotlaşma Küreselleşme, Robot Bilimi ve Gelecekte İstihdam
“Yeni ekonomik çağ hakkında en iyi kitap.” Larry Summers / Dünya Bankası Eski Baş Ekonomisti
Öyle bir çağın yamacında duruyoruz ki, bu yeni çağ dünyayı Sanayi Devrimi’ne denk ölçüde değiştirecek. Otomasyon, yapay zekâ ve robot bilimi hızla hayatımıza giriyor, becerilerimizi sınıyor, işimizi tehdit ediyor. Yaşadığımız değişimler artık kaçınılmaz olsa da kötümserliğe değil öngörüye ihtiyacımız var. Bu yeni dünyaya uyum sağlamada kullanabileceğimiz, hiçbir makinenin kopyalayamayacağı güçlü yönlerimizi hatırlamanın tam zamanı.
Dünyanın önde gelen küreselleşme uzmanlarından Richard Baldwin’e göre eşitsizliğin, işsizliğin ve popülizmin temelinde dünyada yaşanan radikal değişimler bulunuyor. Dijital teknoloji, siyaseti, ekonomiyi ve toplumsal dokuyu dönüştürürken, dil sınırlarını yıkıyor, işlerimizi elimizden alıyor, istihdamı yeniden şekillendiriyor. Otomasyonun ve küreselleşmenin aynı anda, büyük bir hızla ve adaletsizce yaşandığı bu dünyada nasıl hayatta kalabiliriz? Hangi işleri robotlara kaptıracağız? Böylesi bir tektonik kaymayı nasıl daha iyi yönetebilir, ülkeler olarak ne tür önlemler alabiliriz? Istırabı nasıl kazanca çevirebiliriz? Kendimizi ve çocuklarımızı yeni mesleklere, yeni bir geleceğe nasıl hazırlarız?
Küresel Robotlaşma, dijital teknolojinin itici gücüyle içine savrulduğumuz bu yeni dünyayı tüm yönleriyle bize anlatırken, bir yanda da tüm bu sorulara yanıt arıyor, karşılaşacağımız zorlukları aşmak için bize yol gösteriyor. İnsani özelliklerin, yaratıcılığın, duygudaşlığın ve özgür düşüncenin önemini vurgulayan kitap, daha yerel, daha insani bir dünyanın mümkün olduğunu anlatıyor.
Öyle bir çağın yamacında duruyoruz ki, bu yeni çağ dünyayı Sanayi Devrimi’ne denk ölçüde değiştirecek. Otomasyon, yapay zekâ ve robot bilimi hızla hayatımıza giriyor, becerilerimizi sınıyor, işimizi tehdit ediyor. Yaşadığımız değişimler artık kaçınılmaz olsa da kötümserliğe değil öngörüye ihtiyacımız var. Bu yeni dünyaya uyum sağlamada kullanabileceğimiz, hiçbir makinenin kopyalayamayacağı güçlü yönlerimizi hatırlamanın tam zamanı.
Dünyanın önde gelen küreselleşme uzmanlarından Richard Baldwin’e göre eşitsizliğin, işsizliğin ve popülizmin temelinde dünyada yaşanan radikal değişimler bulunuyor. Dijital teknoloji, siyaseti, ekonomiyi ve toplumsal dokuyu dönüştürürken, dil sınırlarını yıkıyor, işlerimizi elimizden alıyor, istihdamı yeniden şekillendiriyor. Otomasyonun ve küreselleşmenin aynı anda, büyük bir hızla ve adaletsizce yaşandığı bu dünyada nasıl hayatta kalabiliriz? Hangi işleri robotlara kaptıracağız? Böylesi bir tektonik kaymayı nasıl daha iyi yönetebilir, ülkeler olarak ne tür önlemler alabiliriz? Istırabı nasıl kazanca çevirebiliriz? Kendimizi ve çocuklarımızı yeni mesleklere, yeni bir geleceğe nasıl hazırlarız?
Küresel Robotlaşma, dijital teknolojinin itici gücüyle içine savrulduğumuz bu yeni dünyayı tüm yönleriyle bize anlatırken, bir yanda da tüm bu sorulara yanıt arıyor, karşılaşacağımız zorlukları aşmak için bize yol gösteriyor. İnsani özelliklerin, yaratıcılığın, duygudaşlığın ve özgür düşüncenin önemini vurgulayan kitap, daha yerel, daha insani bir dünyanın mümkün olduğunu anlatıyor.
302 pages, Paperback
Published April 1, 2021
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Displaying 1 - 27 of 27 reviews
August 22, 2020
What happens when high-powered apps and freelance sites make it possible for white-collar workers in the developed world to be replaced by lower-paid workers in the developing world? What will we do when RPA (robotic process automation) destroys a large number of white-collar jobs? How can history serve as a guide to the process of technological upheaval and their economic, social, and political impacts?
These are the questions this book attempts to answer. And answer these questions it does, often in ways that are simple and useful.
First, some of the negatives of the book.
The book seems as if it were written quickly, almost as if it were meant to be a long magazine article and then was quickly lengthened into a book. Missing is much of the artistry and craft you will find in such books as Steven Pinker’s “Enlightenment Now”, Yuval Noah Harari’s “21 Lessons for the 21 Century”, or Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Skin in the Game”. It’s also not the best book written about future technology. A better book might be Michio Kaku’s excellent “Physics of the Future”. This book covers many of the same technological topics but offers more depth and breadth on the topic of future technology.
Now, the positives.
The book is excellent at filling its niche: discussing RPA technologies and their possible impacts. The academic aspects and historical analysis of the book weren’t poor, but the book is at its best when it serves as a piece of extended journalism. For this reason, I was surprised to learn that Richard Baldwin is actually an economist. The book is often at its best when it is grounded in anecdotes and stories. The book is often riveting when it is talking about current companies and the plight of real people.
An unexpected good point to the book was Baldwin’s sensitivity to the social and political aspects of economic revolutions. In each technological upheaval we get a sense of the real despair that occurs in local communities. I think this is an important corrective to a strictly statistical argument for technological progress (for example “Factfulness” and “Enlightenment Now”). Even if technological improvements are better for humanity overall, the upheaval it causes to localized communities upsets our basic notion of fairness.
The book also deals with another important idea: our loss of identity and community. Few economists, I dare say, would reference the work of Emile Durkheim so often and examine the idea of “anomie”. And yet, this reference is extraordinarily relevant because economic upheavals often lead to crises of identity. It is no coincidence that religious fundamentalism and tribalism have grown during these times of globalization and technological upheaval. The tendency to ban together in tight groupings is a natural outcome of insecurity. Thus, we should expect tribalism and religious fundamentalism to be the flip side of globotic progress.
Yes, technology will make the world better, but it will also destroy communities, customs, and people along the way. The way this process occurs is vastly unfair and thus the government has a strong role to play in ameliorating this injustice.
Perhaps the most radical conclusion of this book is that “globotics” -- while something very new -- is not anything new in terms of transformational technologies. Technological revolutions have occurred in the past and their trajectories are fairly clear: upheaval, backlash, and adjustment. How turbulent this experience is depends on the scale and velocity of the upheaval along with the skill of policymakers in crafting responses to these upheavals. When policymakers fail, radical solutions such as communism and fascism might lead to more misery and maladjustment rather than adjustment.
The author concludes that policy tools, such as those used by Denmark, have already shown to work. Protect workers through safety nets, job retraining, and salary subsidies -- but don’t protect industries or jobs.
That is a refreshing take. Often writers and academics try to be too clever when dealing with complex issues. Often, simple and mostly right solutions are better than complicated solutions that aim for an ideal.
Perhaps this isn’t an essential read for the 21st century, but if you are looking for a book that has a wealth of information about the RPA revolution to come, along with a sympathy of the human beings caught in this moment of upheaval, then this book is the right book for you.
These are the questions this book attempts to answer. And answer these questions it does, often in ways that are simple and useful.
First, some of the negatives of the book.
The book seems as if it were written quickly, almost as if it were meant to be a long magazine article and then was quickly lengthened into a book. Missing is much of the artistry and craft you will find in such books as Steven Pinker’s “Enlightenment Now”, Yuval Noah Harari’s “21 Lessons for the 21 Century”, or Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Skin in the Game”. It’s also not the best book written about future technology. A better book might be Michio Kaku’s excellent “Physics of the Future”. This book covers many of the same technological topics but offers more depth and breadth on the topic of future technology.
Now, the positives.
The book is excellent at filling its niche: discussing RPA technologies and their possible impacts. The academic aspects and historical analysis of the book weren’t poor, but the book is at its best when it serves as a piece of extended journalism. For this reason, I was surprised to learn that Richard Baldwin is actually an economist. The book is often at its best when it is grounded in anecdotes and stories. The book is often riveting when it is talking about current companies and the plight of real people.
An unexpected good point to the book was Baldwin’s sensitivity to the social and political aspects of economic revolutions. In each technological upheaval we get a sense of the real despair that occurs in local communities. I think this is an important corrective to a strictly statistical argument for technological progress (for example “Factfulness” and “Enlightenment Now”). Even if technological improvements are better for humanity overall, the upheaval it causes to localized communities upsets our basic notion of fairness.
The book also deals with another important idea: our loss of identity and community. Few economists, I dare say, would reference the work of Emile Durkheim so often and examine the idea of “anomie”. And yet, this reference is extraordinarily relevant because economic upheavals often lead to crises of identity. It is no coincidence that religious fundamentalism and tribalism have grown during these times of globalization and technological upheaval. The tendency to ban together in tight groupings is a natural outcome of insecurity. Thus, we should expect tribalism and religious fundamentalism to be the flip side of globotic progress.
Yes, technology will make the world better, but it will also destroy communities, customs, and people along the way. The way this process occurs is vastly unfair and thus the government has a strong role to play in ameliorating this injustice.
Perhaps the most radical conclusion of this book is that “globotics” -- while something very new -- is not anything new in terms of transformational technologies. Technological revolutions have occurred in the past and their trajectories are fairly clear: upheaval, backlash, and adjustment. How turbulent this experience is depends on the scale and velocity of the upheaval along with the skill of policymakers in crafting responses to these upheavals. When policymakers fail, radical solutions such as communism and fascism might lead to more misery and maladjustment rather than adjustment.
The author concludes that policy tools, such as those used by Denmark, have already shown to work. Protect workers through safety nets, job retraining, and salary subsidies -- but don’t protect industries or jobs.
That is a refreshing take. Often writers and academics try to be too clever when dealing with complex issues. Often, simple and mostly right solutions are better than complicated solutions that aim for an ideal.
Perhaps this isn’t an essential read for the 21st century, but if you are looking for a book that has a wealth of information about the RPA revolution to come, along with a sympathy of the human beings caught in this moment of upheaval, then this book is the right book for you.
February 24, 2019
There are some really interesting points in the book, but most of it is secondary information from Mackinsey studies or Blinder's work, etc. I think it's very useful in articulating the rapidity of recent changes, but it's not so great at prognosticating the future. The first half of the book is excellent; the second half is just a regurgitation of a bunch of other books and thinkers--Haidt, Pinker, Gladwell. All men by the way, making the same boring points. Maybe it's just me, but I'm sick of these "big thinkers" who only ever read eachother's work and talking to eachother. In the entire book about the future of work and how robotics will take over jobs, the primary focus on work was manufacturing. What about the entire sector of "womens work"? Care work like childcare and elder care will not be taken over by robots (and the data in Baldwin's book support this), but it's almost like Baldwin and the other big thinkers cannot in their most imaginative moments can't picture just paying people to do it. They would rather go to a UBI or training more computer programmers rather than just compensating this essential labor.
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August 30, 2020Automation and Globalization are coming for us all
The main thesis of this book is that automation and globalization aren't just coming for manufacturing workers, rather, the synchronicity of the phenomena of i) the upswell in high-skilled but low-wage labor from Third-World countries in the form of 'telemigrants' or freelance globalized tech workers that could work through Skype and ii) the exponential improvement of AI workers, or robots that could displace data-intensive knowledge workers, kindle threats for white-collar, professional work such as financial analysts, office workers, lawyers, accountants, engineers, programmers, and nurses. The promise of 'remote work' and 'robot work' can combine to affect these professions, not by making them completely obsolete, but by massively decreasing the number of jobs or positions for each occupation. Routine or automatable work done by ten lawyers will now employ one lawyer and two robots, or two high-skilled legal assistants that demand only the equivalent of minimum wages in the host country. The work that will remain in these occupations for highly-paid humans will be creative roles, supervisory roles, or caring roles (relationships-based duties that require face-to-face interaction). This upheaval will happen due to the fateful logic of technology and the marketplace-- the companies will save more money and profit by eliminating 'unnecessary' employees. Thus, history will return, and is already returning-- the author predicts this upheaval will rekindle a backlash among white-collar workers that will mirror the affect of manufacturing workers over the sheer "unfairness" of the competition, in the form of foreign remote workers and of robots, both of whom will not pay local taxes, pay into or require local social benefits, or ask much of their host companies. Part of this book is devoted to an incisive look into how such an upheaval affected society during the Period of Industrialization. Will we see similar fluctuations toward aggressive societal revulsion toward the poor, who are not able to cope with these macroeconomic changes, such as Britain's revulsion toward its urban and rural poor through the enactment of sadistic "Poor Laws" that dumped the poor in workhouses where people were prone to die by starvation? Will we see a reprise of the outbursts of communism and fascism as populist movements, which spawned in the 20th century partly due to domestic economic conditions? Will people ask for 'protectionism' of the domestic workforce, interventionism from an empowered welfare state, or the institution of 'shelterism' that will phase their countries gradually to the entry of robot workers and remote migrant workers rather than allowing the countries into unmetered free trade and potential freefall? Or will we see a return of Britain's "Corn Laws"-- where the rich and their corporations are protected by their representatives in government through tariff protectionism, but the working-class and the middle-class are left to fend for themselves in the upcoming sea changes? As the stability of communities is hollowed out and the social contract is compromised, will we see an upsurge in militancy and violence?
These are some of the issues that this book is concerned about. I don't know what to think of it, however, I think we can see a resumption of the calls for unionized labor and strengthened collective bargaining among white-collar workers, if the changes that this book prophesies materialize.
The main thesis of this book is that automation and globalization aren't just coming for manufacturing workers, rather, the synchronicity of the phenomena of i) the upswell in high-skilled but low-wage labor from Third-World countries in the form of 'telemigrants' or freelance globalized tech workers that could work through Skype and ii) the exponential improvement of AI workers, or robots that could displace data-intensive knowledge workers, kindle threats for white-collar, professional work such as financial analysts, office workers, lawyers, accountants, engineers, programmers, and nurses. The promise of 'remote work' and 'robot work' can combine to affect these professions, not by making them completely obsolete, but by massively decreasing the number of jobs or positions for each occupation. Routine or automatable work done by ten lawyers will now employ one lawyer and two robots, or two high-skilled legal assistants that demand only the equivalent of minimum wages in the host country. The work that will remain in these occupations for highly-paid humans will be creative roles, supervisory roles, or caring roles (relationships-based duties that require face-to-face interaction). This upheaval will happen due to the fateful logic of technology and the marketplace-- the companies will save more money and profit by eliminating 'unnecessary' employees. Thus, history will return, and is already returning-- the author predicts this upheaval will rekindle a backlash among white-collar workers that will mirror the affect of manufacturing workers over the sheer "unfairness" of the competition, in the form of foreign remote workers and of robots, both of whom will not pay local taxes, pay into or require local social benefits, or ask much of their host companies. Part of this book is devoted to an incisive look into how such an upheaval affected society during the Period of Industrialization. Will we see similar fluctuations toward aggressive societal revulsion toward the poor, who are not able to cope with these macroeconomic changes, such as Britain's revulsion toward its urban and rural poor through the enactment of sadistic "Poor Laws" that dumped the poor in workhouses where people were prone to die by starvation? Will we see a reprise of the outbursts of communism and fascism as populist movements, which spawned in the 20th century partly due to domestic economic conditions? Will people ask for 'protectionism' of the domestic workforce, interventionism from an empowered welfare state, or the institution of 'shelterism' that will phase their countries gradually to the entry of robot workers and remote migrant workers rather than allowing the countries into unmetered free trade and potential freefall? Or will we see a return of Britain's "Corn Laws"-- where the rich and their corporations are protected by their representatives in government through tariff protectionism, but the working-class and the middle-class are left to fend for themselves in the upcoming sea changes? As the stability of communities is hollowed out and the social contract is compromised, will we see an upsurge in militancy and violence?
These are some of the issues that this book is concerned about. I don't know what to think of it, however, I think we can see a resumption of the calls for unionized labor and strengthened collective bargaining among white-collar workers, if the changes that this book prophesies materialize.
April 8, 2023
Relevant and worrying. Recommended.
January 27, 2020
A balanced and engaging account of two large-tech driven changes which will likely cause significant to severe job losses among the western middle classes: Global communication improvements which enable remote-human workers to take on service jobs (copy-editing, reports, accounting etc), and AI/Robotics improvements which are able to automate jobs (legal case work, basic journalism, etc).
Like many books in this genre, Baldwin starts off somewhat hyping the significance of the change before us. For instance, language translation services are treated as if they are already viable for everyday business use, and AI discussed as if it has made the jump from pattern recognition to some level of social cognition. On both counts, I am dubious (AI can beat humans at both Chess and Go, but change the board by a single square and computers will not know how to play). But once through the early chapters, the book offers a generally nuanced and informed analysis that clearly recognises the limitations of current technology, and the challenges faced in its evolution to the stage necessary for the worst-case job losses to occur.
Baldwin, an American economist with some government experience, offers a deft hand when it comes to the economic and political implications of the technological changes. He discusses historic policy choices during previous industrial revolutions, as well as the current populist backlash. While not really offering solutions, Baldwin reviews a range of options available, from simply trying to slow down the rate of change via regressive regulations (not great, but might be necessary), education as a silver bullet (it ain't), shelter options to protect various sectors or more pro-active social support elements.
Baldwin ultimately is an optimist. We will be better off, there will still be jobs and things of value for us all to do. It may even free us from much of the 'bullshit jobs' that so many trudge through. But it's a net, qualified optimism, tied not to the rate of research but our political and social willingness to confront what we now face.
Baldwin writes in an engaging fashion, with a proclivity for alliteration that is just on the right side of enjoyable. The Globotics Upheaval speaks to challenge we will all face individually - could a computer or cheaper overseas worker do my job? Or the jobs my children will want - and the challenge we face as a society - how, in this angry era will we cope with yet more major job losses and economic distortion. Though there are thousands of books on the implications of recent technology, this is a balanced, informed and thoughtful work. Recommended.
Like many books in this genre, Baldwin starts off somewhat hyping the significance of the change before us. For instance, language translation services are treated as if they are already viable for everyday business use, and AI discussed as if it has made the jump from pattern recognition to some level of social cognition. On both counts, I am dubious (AI can beat humans at both Chess and Go, but change the board by a single square and computers will not know how to play). But once through the early chapters, the book offers a generally nuanced and informed analysis that clearly recognises the limitations of current technology, and the challenges faced in its evolution to the stage necessary for the worst-case job losses to occur.
Baldwin, an American economist with some government experience, offers a deft hand when it comes to the economic and political implications of the technological changes. He discusses historic policy choices during previous industrial revolutions, as well as the current populist backlash. While not really offering solutions, Baldwin reviews a range of options available, from simply trying to slow down the rate of change via regressive regulations (not great, but might be necessary), education as a silver bullet (it ain't), shelter options to protect various sectors or more pro-active social support elements.
Baldwin ultimately is an optimist. We will be better off, there will still be jobs and things of value for us all to do. It may even free us from much of the 'bullshit jobs' that so many trudge through. But it's a net, qualified optimism, tied not to the rate of research but our political and social willingness to confront what we now face.
Baldwin writes in an engaging fashion, with a proclivity for alliteration that is just on the right side of enjoyable. The Globotics Upheaval speaks to challenge we will all face individually - could a computer or cheaper overseas worker do my job? Or the jobs my children will want - and the challenge we face as a society - how, in this angry era will we cope with yet more major job losses and economic distortion. Though there are thousands of books on the implications of recent technology, this is a balanced, informed and thoughtful work. Recommended.
August 24, 2019
Larry Summer describes this as ‘the best book yet in the new economic era’ - and it was also recommended in The FT. I have to confess to being a little underwhelmed by it.
The book starts with a review of previous economic revolutions and their characteristics - useful, but I thought it could be covered more succinctly.
The middle section of the book, which shows how AI, machine learning, and off-shoring are revolutionising the workplace, was by far the most interesting - providing fascinating real world examples.
There is also a good discussion of what the workplace implications are of this globotics revolution.
So, my overall view is that the book is thought provoking, but unevenly paced and a little repetitive in places. I think it could have been much shorter.
The book starts with a review of previous economic revolutions and their characteristics - useful, but I thought it could be covered more succinctly.
The middle section of the book, which shows how AI, machine learning, and off-shoring are revolutionising the workplace, was by far the most interesting - providing fascinating real world examples.
There is also a good discussion of what the workplace implications are of this globotics revolution.
So, my overall view is that the book is thought provoking, but unevenly paced and a little repetitive in places. I think it could have been much shorter.
September 3, 2019
Goid Overview but gets repetitive as chapters progress
Nice insight and description of the various technology disruptions and subsequent industrial revolutions.
AI is still in an embryonic stage with noticeable developments as from 2016; yet a highlighted table still shows that it will take 50 more years till robots replce humans; I would be 100 by then !
Nice insight and description of the various technology disruptions and subsequent industrial revolutions.
AI is still in an embryonic stage with noticeable developments as from 2016; yet a highlighted table still shows that it will take 50 more years till robots replce humans; I would be 100 by then !
March 2, 2019
Very repetitive.
March 11, 2020
Reading the Concluding Remarks is more then enough to understand the topic. There are good references to some studies and papers but the author is repeating himself through the book.
October 20, 2019
An exciting, readable, and well researched work that applies the concept of "The Great Transition" to our present (2020s) situation –recognized by ever so few– in which internationalization of labor, capital flow, and investment have precipitated automation that is so rapidly proceeding people are resisting the loss of traditional work. By analyzing the disparate incomes and prolonged stagnation of wages in the US due to globalization and robotics (hence the name) this author warns of a coming fork in the road where governments, institutions and society must choose. The path before us diverges: either we select the further automation of middle management and professional jobs, or we accept the turmoil of joblessness, street violence, and ever widening gaps in wages and wealth that we are only vaguely aware of today.
Baldwin challenges our assumptions of the past, present and future by showing how electronic machinery and uncontrolled use of computers by giant conglomerates (Goggle, Facebook, or Amazon) is altering and will further disrupt the social fabric. By analyzing Yang's call for a minimum basic payment to all citizens, in addition to earned wages, the author forces readers to face facts of automation, resistance, political disruption and destruction o the social safety net as ever fewer elites benefit from the transformation of work by overseas labor and domestic robots.
Read it and weep, or become engaged in creating a better future, which Baldwin believes we are capable of achieving if we face the brutal truth of the technological juggernaut we are now only starting to experience.
Baldwin challenges our assumptions of the past, present and future by showing how electronic machinery and uncontrolled use of computers by giant conglomerates (Goggle, Facebook, or Amazon) is altering and will further disrupt the social fabric. By analyzing Yang's call for a minimum basic payment to all citizens, in addition to earned wages, the author forces readers to face facts of automation, resistance, political disruption and destruction o the social safety net as ever fewer elites benefit from the transformation of work by overseas labor and domestic robots.
Read it and weep, or become engaged in creating a better future, which Baldwin believes we are capable of achieving if we face the brutal truth of the technological juggernaut we are now only starting to experience.
August 30, 2020
É 2020 e o mundo parece viver em alternância momentos de euforia e desespero. Os avanços das tecnologias, em especial as digitais, oferecem boa parte do entusiasmo, via acesso a bens e serviços antes inacessíveis para muitos. Pense que com R$30 antigamente era possível alugar dois filmes em VHS nas locadoras - e hoje é possível assinar netflix ou outras plataformas de streaming acessando um universo de entretenimento. Ao mesmo tempo vivemos momentos de polarização política, sectarismo e populismo - sendo Brasil e EUA notórios exemplos. Richard Baldwin tece uma excelente narrativa explicando como estes dois pontos estão ligados. Sua inspiração é a história e a Grande Transformação que marcou a revolução industrial. Ele enxerga um padrão nos eventos: começa com uma transformação liderada por avanços tecnológicos; em seguida, inicia-se uma convulsão social (upheaval), devido ao alto índice de empregos sendo automatizados ou relocalizados; segue-se um contra-ataque (backlash), que muitas vezes toma a forma de protecionismo setorial (como os táxis vs. uber); finalmente alcança-se a resolução (resolution), quando políticas de regulação são postas em prática para atenuar o fardo daqueles que perderam seus empregos e tiveram suas vidas desestruturadas. A tecnologia digital fará o mesmo, mas em uma velocidade e escala maior - via robôs que automatizam serviços, os white-collar robots (artificial intelligence) e a concorrência de telemigrantes (remote intelligence). As fases não são sequenciais - isto é, estamos vivendo simultaneamente o desenvolvimento das tecnologias, mas já podemos sentir os efeitos do contra-ataque, em especial o surgimento de políticos populistas que prometem medidas nacionalistas/xenofóbicas (que obviamente não resolvem a questão). O autor é otimista no longo prazo. Ele crê que viveremos em um mundo com trabalhos mais significativos e comunidades mais locais depois que a tempestade passar. Mas precisamos ter a coragem de colocar em prática boas políticas.
June 11, 2021
I recommend this book by providing a good overview of the different phases of globalization, technology and work. In my opinion, this book should be widely read by everyone and especially young people. Some readers "complain" that the second half of the book references many other works of different authors. But that is the strength combine economic history and thinking on how current technology will further shape the economy. His focus is on how technological advances will shape labour relations with artificial intelligence (AI) and remote intelligence (RI). Baldwin maps opportunities and risks equally. At the end of the book, he shares some insight on how to harness and adapt to this technological change. Baldwin intent is to contribute to the debate and raising awareness of how the technology will further shape the economy. Since the book has been written before the Corona pandemic, the message is still valid.
Further references:
I recommend this book discussion: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbo...
The book was also part of a YouTube Series by Marginal Revolution University: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPZZQ...
Further references:
I recommend this book discussion: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbo...
The book was also part of a YouTube Series by Marginal Revolution University: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPZZQ...
January 25, 2025
This reads more like a lengthy magazine article on the pace of change in Artificial Intelligence and Remote Intelligence (RI). RI is telemigrants that live overseas and no longer need to know the English language to provide work in lieu of local Americans - for instance sites such as Upwork that offer freelance services. White collar work is no longer safe during this tumultuous transformation - walking distance minds fail to appreciate the pace of exponential growth. In this book we have a chance to consider it and its implications. Social cognition will end up being the most essential human skill. Amara's Law stood out: the law that we tend to overestimate technology in the short term and underestimate the effect in the long term. The problem is AI is practically in that long term stage already. I was pleased that the author did NOT rely on the tired cliche of every expert: we need a well financed branch of the government to handle it, blah, blah Marshall Plan, blah blah. In fact, he was more optimistic about these upcoming upheavals making local jobs and local community more important again. In addition, he focuses on the positive - the opportunity - as well as the detriment.
December 28, 2019
Un livre qui se résume facilement: intelligence artificielle + mondialisation égal de grands changements sur le marché du travail, soit par remplacement par des robots (les camions, les cols blancs qui font des tâches répétitives), soit par appel à de la main d'oeuvre qualifiée résidant à l'étranger et moins cher (free lance) => donc montée du populisme, backlash, luddisme, recherche de protections pour des populations soudain réduites au chômage. L'optimisme final: développement des métiers où les robots ne sont pas les meilleurs, c'est à dire créativité, prise de responsabilité et relations sociales fait un peu voeu pieux. C'est qu'il manque un élément crucial dans l'analyse: le changement climatique. Intéressant néanmoins à lire, même si ce type de livres : j'utilise une anecdote pour illustrer mon propos et quelques statistiques pour montrer que ce que je dis est plausible reste trop superficiel.
September 17, 2019
Robotic Process Automation (RPA) could change the nature of offices. What's different this time?
1. Affecting svc & professional jobs not just factory jobs. Increased cognitive capabilities of AI. Service sector disruption giving rise to gig economy => upheavel, inequality, rise of populism
2. In 2019 computers can read, write, see, speak, understand speech, create visual o/p, recognize subtle pattern shifts, reading emails, recognizing photos etc Mc learning = thinking fast.
3. Glibotics is advancing at an explosive pace of DigiTech. Digital disruption.
Future of globalization
Telemigration: wage gaps makes it profitable; digitech makes it possible.
Domestic telecommuting, project based.
Online freelancing platforms eg Upwork, Fiverr, witmart.com
Advanced Telecom
Machine translation eg Google translate
Global talent tsunami in services
1. Affecting svc & professional jobs not just factory jobs. Increased cognitive capabilities of AI. Service sector disruption giving rise to gig economy => upheavel, inequality, rise of populism
2. In 2019 computers can read, write, see, speak, understand speech, create visual o/p, recognize subtle pattern shifts, reading emails, recognizing photos etc Mc learning = thinking fast.
3. Glibotics is advancing at an explosive pace of DigiTech. Digital disruption.
Future of globalization
Telemigration: wage gaps makes it profitable; digitech makes it possible.
Domestic telecommuting, project based.
Online freelancing platforms eg Upwork, Fiverr, witmart.com
Advanced Telecom
Machine translation eg Google translate
Global talent tsunami in services
July 26, 2023
Very good read on a very acute & pressing topic.
It strikes a good balance between serious & accessible, without falling prey to sensationalism.
My only regret is that it falls a bit short from providing solutions - but then that could be said of just about all lit' on the topic; hence why I proceeded to write one myself ;)
It strikes a good balance between serious & accessible, without falling prey to sensationalism.
My only regret is that it falls a bit short from providing solutions - but then that could be said of just about all lit' on the topic; hence why I proceeded to write one myself ;)
September 26, 2019
As I read this, I also imagined the world of Big Hero 6 (movie). It’s hard for me to imagine what will be the world my kids will be responsible for, but this book provides a line of reasoning to help guide imagination...
December 7, 2020
This is a fascinating topic, though it was a bit repetitive at times. I was also really distracted by the ridiculous number of typos in here! As in a couple in every chapter. One particular egregious one given the books title was a reference to the “Globotics Upheal”.
December 26, 2020
I found this a fascinating insight into the next great revolution. convincing and accessible in its narrative, it opens up an exciting future with enormous challenges, though ultimately is optimistic. A must read, especially for younger people thinking about their future careers prospects!
August 15, 2019
All you need to know about robotics. Not very enlightening about the future, which was why I read it in the first place.
October 9, 2019
Some great insights. A dense read, a bit of a slog towards the end
October 30, 2019
Great book
This book made me think hard about how we embrace change, especially that which will decimate the jobs that we hold dear.
This book made me think hard about how we embrace change, especially that which will decimate the jobs that we hold dear.
February 10, 2020
本书提供了一个分析框架: transformation- upheaval- backlash- resolution，分析虽然中规中矩，但却引人深思，thought- provoking，值得一读。
September 6, 2023
Terrible book. Very repetitive, as other readers have already pointed out.
August 14, 2021
Worth reading (3.5 stars) but feels derivative as if Baldwin is in hurry to make hay before the sun sets on this topic. For a more substantive book from this author see The Great Convergence.
April 16, 2020
Globots are here to take over the world, and they won’t play fair! Globots -globalisation in the shape of telemigrants and white collar robots - are driving a new transformation which revolutionalises the future of work!
•
𝟛 𝕓𝕠𝕠𝕜 𝕓𝕪𝕥𝕖𝕤 📚
📕Digital technology is an amazing thing to behold. To some it is fascinating, to others, frightening. But one thing that should be obvious to all: it will change our economies, our lives and our communities.
•
📗People who think white collar jobs are iron clad rice bowls, think again! White collar globalisation together with white collar automation will drive the globotics transformation, eliminating many jobs we know of now.
•
📘While it sounds all like doom and gloom, there is a way to poise ourselves change- there are some things automation cannot take away, those that require creative thinking, for one. Read the book to find out more!
•
𝕎𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕀 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕝𝕪 𝕝𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕕💎
I like how the book systematically addresses the various aspects of the globotics transformation. It also provides handles to navigate this revolution, which I think is fantastic. Of course, I have some doubts/questions with regards to the underlying assumptions which #RichardBaldwin held in writing this but overall, a really enjoyable read!
•
Notwithstanding, I did find the first part with the history and all a little bit of a snooze 😴
•
ℝ𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕞𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕕 𝕗𝕠𝕣: White collared workers & people who’d like a glimpse into a possible future.
•
𝟛 𝕓𝕠𝕠𝕜 𝕓𝕪𝕥𝕖𝕤 📚
📕Digital technology is an amazing thing to behold. To some it is fascinating, to others, frightening. But one thing that should be obvious to all: it will change our economies, our lives and our communities.
•
📗People who think white collar jobs are iron clad rice bowls, think again! White collar globalisation together with white collar automation will drive the globotics transformation, eliminating many jobs we know of now.
•
📘While it sounds all like doom and gloom, there is a way to poise ourselves change- there are some things automation cannot take away, those that require creative thinking, for one. Read the book to find out more!
•
𝕎𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕀 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕝𝕝𝕪 𝕝𝕠𝕧𝕖𝕕💎
I like how the book systematically addresses the various aspects of the globotics transformation. It also provides handles to navigate this revolution, which I think is fantastic. Of course, I have some doubts/questions with regards to the underlying assumptions which #RichardBaldwin held in writing this but overall, a really enjoyable read!
•
Notwithstanding, I did find the first part with the history and all a little bit of a snooze 😴
•
ℝ𝕖𝕔𝕠𝕞𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕕 𝕗𝕠𝕣: White collared workers & people who’d like a glimpse into a possible future.
June 1, 2023
While a pessimistic prediction of AI, automation and globality impact for the white-collar middle class from industrialized societies, it is at the same time, a source of inspiration for development of a collaborative business model between globotics from emerging countries to established inshore organizations. A warning for the rapid change implications of that is looming.
The global revolution is obviously disruptive, but as a result of it, there will be winners who managed to identify and capitalize opportunities from the new scenarios. I believe, among others, this is a relevant contribution from Baldwin.
Excellent analysis of globotics.
Si bien una predicción pesimista del impacto de la AI, la automatizción y la globalidad para la clase media de cuello blanco en las sociedades industrializadas, es a la vez una fuente de inspiración para el desarrollo de modelos de negocios colaborativos entre globótics de paises emergentes y las empresas establecidas inshore. Si bien es una advertencia de las implicaciones del veloz cambio que se vislumbra, la revolución globótica es obviamente disruptiva, pero resultado de ella, habrá ganadores que lograron identificar y capitalizar las oportunidades de los nuevos escenarios. Creo yo, que entre otras, esta es una relevante aportacion de Baldwin.
Excelente análisis del globotics.
The global revolution is obviously disruptive, but as a result of it, there will be winners who managed to identify and capitalize opportunities from the new scenarios. I believe, among others, this is a relevant contribution from Baldwin.
Excellent analysis of globotics.
Si bien una predicción pesimista del impacto de la AI, la automatizción y la globalidad para la clase media de cuello blanco en las sociedades industrializadas, es a la vez una fuente de inspiración para el desarrollo de modelos de negocios colaborativos entre globótics de paises emergentes y las empresas establecidas inshore. Si bien es una advertencia de las implicaciones del veloz cambio que se vislumbra, la revolución globótica es obviamente disruptiva, pero resultado de ella, habrá ganadores que lograron identificar y capitalizar las oportunidades de los nuevos escenarios. Creo yo, que entre otras, esta es una relevante aportacion de Baldwin.
Excelente análisis del globotics.
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