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Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic---and Prevented Economic Disaster
The inside story, told with “insight, perspective, and stellar reporting,” of how an unassuming civil servant created trillions of dollars from thin air, combatted a public health crisis, and saved the American economy from a second Great Depression (Alan S. Blinder, former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve).
By February 2020, the U.S. economic expansion had become the longest on record. Unemployment was plumbing half-century lows. Stock markets soared to new highs. One month later, the public health battle against a deadly virus had pushed the economy into the equivalent of a medically induced coma. America’s workplaces—offices, shops, malls, and factories—shuttered. Many of the nation’s largest employers and tens of thousands of small businesses faced ruin. Over 22 million American jobs were lost. The extreme uncertainty led to some of the largest daily drops ever in the stock market.
Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal’s chief economics correspondent, draws on extensive interviews to detail the tense meetings, late night phone calls, and crucial video conferences behind the largest, swiftest U.S. economic policy response since World War II. Trillion Dollar Triage goes inside the Federal Reserve, one of the country’s most important and least understood institutions, to chronicle how its plainspoken chairman, Jay Powell, unleashed an unprecedented monetary barrage to keep the economy on life support. With the bleeding stemmed, the Fed faced a new challenge: How to nurture a recovery without unleashing an inflation-fueling, bubble-blowing money bomb?
Trillion Dollar Triage is the definitive, gripping history of a creative and unprecedented battle to shield the American economy from the twin threats of a public health disaster and economic crisis. Economic theory and policy will never be the same.
By February 2020, the U.S. economic expansion had become the longest on record. Unemployment was plumbing half-century lows. Stock markets soared to new highs. One month later, the public health battle against a deadly virus had pushed the economy into the equivalent of a medically induced coma. America’s workplaces—offices, shops, malls, and factories—shuttered. Many of the nation’s largest employers and tens of thousands of small businesses faced ruin. Over 22 million American jobs were lost. The extreme uncertainty led to some of the largest daily drops ever in the stock market.
Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal’s chief economics correspondent, draws on extensive interviews to detail the tense meetings, late night phone calls, and crucial video conferences behind the largest, swiftest U.S. economic policy response since World War II. Trillion Dollar Triage goes inside the Federal Reserve, one of the country’s most important and least understood institutions, to chronicle how its plainspoken chairman, Jay Powell, unleashed an unprecedented monetary barrage to keep the economy on life support. With the bleeding stemmed, the Fed faced a new challenge: How to nurture a recovery without unleashing an inflation-fueling, bubble-blowing money bomb?
Trillion Dollar Triage is the definitive, gripping history of a creative and unprecedented battle to shield the American economy from the twin threats of a public health disaster and economic crisis. Economic theory and policy will never be the same.
352 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2022
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June 2, 2022
A summary of the Fed and its major actions of the last few decades, leading up to a detailed blow-by-blow of the brief but steep 2020 recession and its fallout. This is, however, far from an exhaustive or unbiased academic view of those events.
I thought this book was extremely informative and included plenty of politics to give context to the technical dissertations in each chapter, but I also thought there were glaring holes in the presented narrative because Timiraos romanticizes the character of Jay Powell to a noticeable degree. While it was entertaining (for me) to read Timiraos' sarcastic side commentary on Trump's antics from 2019 to early 2021, it was also kind of annoying to have all of Jay Powell's colleagues and opponents cast as either villains or deeply flawed lesser heroes compared to the man himself, to whom Timiraos clearly wishes to give a sainthood. While Powell is commendable for resisting Trump's pressures, I highly doubt that he was or is entirely uninfluenced by others or by his own conservative political views, or that he was purely selfless during those years when in-the-know multi-millionaires like Powell benefited profoundly from the volatile economy. Powell should be commended for thinking fast in 2020, but he did a lot more than just make decisions about how to avert disaster, and time is starting to tell how those decisions are going.
I also thought that the last two chapters of the book were tarnished by Timiraos making the argument that Powell's shifts in monetary policy could benefit Main Street more than most could anticipate. Timiraos ignores Main Street entirely for 90% of this book and sneers on other policymakers' attempts to bring the idea of "equality" to the table during the crisis, though he does make a brief acknowledgement of the existence of racial inequality (in employment, but not in income or wealth). He then also points out that the Fed lacks the tools to address inequality because those tools are blunt, while also pointing out in an earlier chapter that the policies the Fed wrote for the PPP program and the CARES act underserved minority groups, at which point Powell basically threw his hands up and said that nothing could be done when he was confronted by Democrats, despite having basically upended monetary policy as the US knew it in a couple short months. I'm left with the impression that Powell stopped short of making an effort to address inequality on purpose for two major reasons: Because he didn't feel that the payoff to the broad economy would be worth the effort (because minorities are, well, minorities), and because he feared being asked to do more and more by those who would use the unelected Fed as a tool to make certain policies happen. Not more as in "spend more money" - Powell clearly thought that spending big and spending fast was the key to averting disaster - but more as in acting more broadly and for the benefit of economic sectors subdivided smaller than just "Wall Street" and "Main Street."
Timiraos makes the point that zero interest rates benefit the rich more than the poor, possibly in an effort to throw a bone to the "Jay Powell will help Main Street more than you think" argument, but I would also make the point that high interest rates might discourage the rich, but they don't HELP the poor either. Even if raising interest rates combats high prices (as long as they truly are "inflated," which remains to be seen for housing prices at least), lower prices for high-ticket items like homes and cars don't necessarily make those things more affordable for the bottom 50% of wage earners because lower-income wages can't keep up with the economy in the same way as they do for the upper middle class and above in normal (non "Great Resignation") conditions. Even if higher interest rates yield higher wages, wages for the upper middle class and above tend to increase much more quickly than for lower earners (a 2% raise for someone who earns 100k a year is a much more lucrative bump than a 2% raise for someone who makes 35k), to say nothing of the interest rates those lower earners would be saddled with for years to come until an opportunity to refinance comes along, assuming it comes along at all. Wealth and income inequality is irreversible at this point without government policies that crack down on corporations and reshape how we think of wages. It made Jay Powell's moment of pointing out a high-rise window at a homeless encampment a few blocks away unbelievably disconnected and trite for me.
I don't put it in on Timiraos to draw every possible conclusion about Powell's actions or beliefs, certainly not before Powell's term eventually ends, but Timiraos does make a noticeable effort to not criticize Powell the same way he criticizes other actors in his book. That is, at all. He doesn't criticize Powell at all. 😂
Especially with how interest rate policy was decoupled from unemployment, but unemployment is still used in the latter part of this book as a measure for whether interest rates should be raised or not. Low and still falling unemployment in a low interest rate environment did not spark noteworthy inflation for all the years after the Great Recession's recovery until 2021. So the argument for raising interest rates to combat inflation isn't looking so good right now, especially since it's hard to envision how higher interest rates can affect the global supply-chain bottleneck - it can't - or lower demand for homes or cars when egregiously high prices didn't deter consumers, or cool off energy prices.
We're left with the argument that "interest rates need to be higher so that in the event of a recession, they can be lowered." Which assumes the recession in question lasts longer than a year, I'm guessing. But now it's even more puzzling what the role of raising and lowering interest rates really is in the present state of the economy, especially with the evidence shown in the early part of the book where interest rate hikes largely preceded recessions. Do these hikes cause the recessions themselves? Is their purpose to simply mitigate economic losses, meaning a recession is inevitable by the time a serious rate hike happens? Therefore, does bringing rates down during a recession simply start the cycle over again and set the economy up for failure a few years down the road by affecting no real change?
This is all to say that hero-worshiping Jay Powell is a worthless exercise in my opinion, and the book would've been stronger if it kept a more balanced view of all the decisionmakers at play, and delved more into analyses of Main Street if Timiraos cares so much about how the Fed influences Main Street.
This book left me with a lot of thoughts about not only the Fed, but its seeming independence from the US government, which clearly likes to use the Fed as a tool to further its goals. Timiraos does a really good job at building up this theme of the illusion of independence through the initial summarized history of the Fed and its beleaguered leaders, particularly highlighting such instances as Truman and Nixon's desperation and bullying tactics as a grim parallel to Trump's treatment of Jay Powell during his presidency.
The book underscores how Fed independence is essential for a myriad of often unspoken reasons, but certainly because when presidents criticize their respective Fed chairs for raising rates, it's usually because those presidents were wanting near-zero rates to better their election and re-election chances, not because they actually think it's better for the overall economy. Ideally, the Fed is a little bit like the Judicial branch of the government - apolitical and focused only on doing the job at hand as well as possible. But that's just an ideal.
I really liked this book and enjoyed how many thoughts it sparked in me. I wish the book didn't favor conservative viewpoints as heavily as it did, or unequivocally praise Jay Powell, or try and make the case that a mysterious Fed is mysterious on purpose to avoid public panics, because I think the whole argument is useless in the age of social media where people are gonna find out what they wanna find out one way or the other, and reversing the relationship between the Fed and the common man is probably impossible now that it exists.
However, I think the book is very well-written and informative.
I thought this book was extremely informative and included plenty of politics to give context to the technical dissertations in each chapter, but I also thought there were glaring holes in the presented narrative because Timiraos romanticizes the character of Jay Powell to a noticeable degree. While it was entertaining (for me) to read Timiraos' sarcastic side commentary on Trump's antics from 2019 to early 2021, it was also kind of annoying to have all of Jay Powell's colleagues and opponents cast as either villains or deeply flawed lesser heroes compared to the man himself, to whom Timiraos clearly wishes to give a sainthood. While Powell is commendable for resisting Trump's pressures, I highly doubt that he was or is entirely uninfluenced by others or by his own conservative political views, or that he was purely selfless during those years when in-the-know multi-millionaires like Powell benefited profoundly from the volatile economy. Powell should be commended for thinking fast in 2020, but he did a lot more than just make decisions about how to avert disaster, and time is starting to tell how those decisions are going.
I also thought that the last two chapters of the book were tarnished by Timiraos making the argument that Powell's shifts in monetary policy could benefit Main Street more than most could anticipate. Timiraos ignores Main Street entirely for 90% of this book and sneers on other policymakers' attempts to bring the idea of "equality" to the table during the crisis, though he does make a brief acknowledgement of the existence of racial inequality (in employment, but not in income or wealth). He then also points out that the Fed lacks the tools to address inequality because those tools are blunt, while also pointing out in an earlier chapter that the policies the Fed wrote for the PPP program and the CARES act underserved minority groups, at which point Powell basically threw his hands up and said that nothing could be done when he was confronted by Democrats, despite having basically upended monetary policy as the US knew it in a couple short months. I'm left with the impression that Powell stopped short of making an effort to address inequality on purpose for two major reasons: Because he didn't feel that the payoff to the broad economy would be worth the effort (because minorities are, well, minorities), and because he feared being asked to do more and more by those who would use the unelected Fed as a tool to make certain policies happen. Not more as in "spend more money" - Powell clearly thought that spending big and spending fast was the key to averting disaster - but more as in acting more broadly and for the benefit of economic sectors subdivided smaller than just "Wall Street" and "Main Street."
Timiraos makes the point that zero interest rates benefit the rich more than the poor, possibly in an effort to throw a bone to the "Jay Powell will help Main Street more than you think" argument, but I would also make the point that high interest rates might discourage the rich, but they don't HELP the poor either. Even if raising interest rates combats high prices (as long as they truly are "inflated," which remains to be seen for housing prices at least), lower prices for high-ticket items like homes and cars don't necessarily make those things more affordable for the bottom 50% of wage earners because lower-income wages can't keep up with the economy in the same way as they do for the upper middle class and above in normal (non "Great Resignation") conditions. Even if higher interest rates yield higher wages, wages for the upper middle class and above tend to increase much more quickly than for lower earners (a 2% raise for someone who earns 100k a year is a much more lucrative bump than a 2% raise for someone who makes 35k), to say nothing of the interest rates those lower earners would be saddled with for years to come until an opportunity to refinance comes along, assuming it comes along at all. Wealth and income inequality is irreversible at this point without government policies that crack down on corporations and reshape how we think of wages. It made Jay Powell's moment of pointing out a high-rise window at a homeless encampment a few blocks away unbelievably disconnected and trite for me.
I don't put it in on Timiraos to draw every possible conclusion about Powell's actions or beliefs, certainly not before Powell's term eventually ends, but Timiraos does make a noticeable effort to not criticize Powell the same way he criticizes other actors in his book. That is, at all. He doesn't criticize Powell at all. 😂
Especially with how interest rate policy was decoupled from unemployment, but unemployment is still used in the latter part of this book as a measure for whether interest rates should be raised or not. Low and still falling unemployment in a low interest rate environment did not spark noteworthy inflation for all the years after the Great Recession's recovery until 2021. So the argument for raising interest rates to combat inflation isn't looking so good right now, especially since it's hard to envision how higher interest rates can affect the global supply-chain bottleneck - it can't - or lower demand for homes or cars when egregiously high prices didn't deter consumers, or cool off energy prices.
We're left with the argument that "interest rates need to be higher so that in the event of a recession, they can be lowered." Which assumes the recession in question lasts longer than a year, I'm guessing. But now it's even more puzzling what the role of raising and lowering interest rates really is in the present state of the economy, especially with the evidence shown in the early part of the book where interest rate hikes largely preceded recessions. Do these hikes cause the recessions themselves? Is their purpose to simply mitigate economic losses, meaning a recession is inevitable by the time a serious rate hike happens? Therefore, does bringing rates down during a recession simply start the cycle over again and set the economy up for failure a few years down the road by affecting no real change?
This is all to say that hero-worshiping Jay Powell is a worthless exercise in my opinion, and the book would've been stronger if it kept a more balanced view of all the decisionmakers at play, and delved more into analyses of Main Street if Timiraos cares so much about how the Fed influences Main Street.
This book left me with a lot of thoughts about not only the Fed, but its seeming independence from the US government, which clearly likes to use the Fed as a tool to further its goals. Timiraos does a really good job at building up this theme of the illusion of independence through the initial summarized history of the Fed and its beleaguered leaders, particularly highlighting such instances as Truman and Nixon's desperation and bullying tactics as a grim parallel to Trump's treatment of Jay Powell during his presidency.
The book underscores how Fed independence is essential for a myriad of often unspoken reasons, but certainly because when presidents criticize their respective Fed chairs for raising rates, it's usually because those presidents were wanting near-zero rates to better their election and re-election chances, not because they actually think it's better for the overall economy. Ideally, the Fed is a little bit like the Judicial branch of the government - apolitical and focused only on doing the job at hand as well as possible. But that's just an ideal.
I really liked this book and enjoyed how many thoughts it sparked in me. I wish the book didn't favor conservative viewpoints as heavily as it did, or unequivocally praise Jay Powell, or try and make the case that a mysterious Fed is mysterious on purpose to avoid public panics, because I think the whole argument is useless in the age of social media where people are gonna find out what they wanna find out one way or the other, and reversing the relationship between the Fed and the common man is probably impossible now that it exists.
However, I think the book is very well-written and informative.
Want to read
January 14, 2024Recommended by Warren Buffett on Charlie Rose in 2022
https://charlierose.com/videos/31221
The Economist: The Fed that failed
https://www.economist.com/leaders/202...
Ted Weschler finds this a gripping read
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
"I thought that in the next recession, we would cross the Rubicon into MMT [modern monetary theory, the idea that capacity constraints, not budget constraints, are the relevant limit on government spending]. I didn’t realise it would be so easy! I didn’t realise you would get the level of populism around the world that we got, because of inequality. And I thought the next recession would be a deep one, because if you remember, in 2019, there was an incredible corporate debt bubble. That would force US authorities to step in aggressively. They did end up being aggressive, but it was because of the pandemic, which eliminated opposition to crossing the fiscal Rubicon." Albert Edwards, FT 12 Jan 2024
https://www.ft.com/content/ecfee9b5-3...
https://charlierose.com/videos/31221
The Economist: The Fed that failed
https://www.economist.com/leaders/202...
Ted Weschler finds this a gripping read
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
"I thought that in the next recession, we would cross the Rubicon into MMT [modern monetary theory, the idea that capacity constraints, not budget constraints, are the relevant limit on government spending]. I didn’t realise it would be so easy! I didn’t realise you would get the level of populism around the world that we got, because of inequality. And I thought the next recession would be a deep one, because if you remember, in 2019, there was an incredible corporate debt bubble. That would force US authorities to step in aggressively. They did end up being aggressive, but it was because of the pandemic, which eliminated opposition to crossing the fiscal Rubicon." Albert Edwards, FT 12 Jan 2024
https://www.ft.com/content/ecfee9b5-3...
April 1, 2022
From my Washington Post book review:
Nick Timiraos wrote the first draft of this remarkable history as the chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and now has followed up with “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic — and Prevented Economic Disaster.”
The book’s strength lies in its detailed original reporting and the fast-paced narrative of the harrowing month that the Fed spent nearly unilaterally preventing a financial catastrophe as the coronavirus was taking off in 2020. Embedded in the tale is a careful accounting of the economic and financial implications of the Fed’s actions. Timiraos takes the story into 2021 and the fallout from the Fed’s subsequent decisions that contributed to the highest inflation in four decades. The author conducted more than 100 interviews. (I spoke with Timiraos, who sought my perspective as an economist who had helped craft President Barack Obama’s response to the 2008 economic crisis and my view of one congressional meeting where I delivered remarks.)
Read the full review here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outloo...
Nick Timiraos wrote the first draft of this remarkable history as the chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and now has followed up with “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic — and Prevented Economic Disaster.”
The book’s strength lies in its detailed original reporting and the fast-paced narrative of the harrowing month that the Fed spent nearly unilaterally preventing a financial catastrophe as the coronavirus was taking off in 2020. Embedded in the tale is a careful accounting of the economic and financial implications of the Fed’s actions. Timiraos takes the story into 2021 and the fallout from the Fed’s subsequent decisions that contributed to the highest inflation in four decades. The author conducted more than 100 interviews. (I spoke with Timiraos, who sought my perspective as an economist who had helped craft President Barack Obama’s response to the 2008 economic crisis and my view of one congressional meeting where I delivered remarks.)
Read the full review here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outloo...
September 23, 2022
I haven’t read the book, but only a hack judges the success of macroeconomic policy based on 2 years of data
July 31, 2023
No one who buys (and fully reads) this book will be able to say they didn't get their money's worth. I found myself pausing, replaying, googling, and pondering the information Timiraos packed into every sentence of Trillion Dollar Triage. The book took me over a month to finish because I could only do an hour or two of active listening every day at 1.1 speed before I was exhausted from researching the context he lays out.
I am very glad I read this book because of how much it taught me but I would hesitate to recommend it to a casual reader wondering why the FOMC matters so much.
I am very glad I read this book because of how much it taught me but I would hesitate to recommend it to a casual reader wondering why the FOMC matters so much.
August 31, 2022
This is doubtless the best overview and narrative we're going to get of Jay Powell's first term as chair of the Federal Reserve. From his unexpected appointment by Trump, to Trump's feuding with Powell over increasing rates in 2018 and '19, to the monumental and unprecedented steps the Fed took during the pandemic to alleviate the economic crisis, this period deserves this "deep background" insiders look.
Much of the book, of course, focuses on the crucial months at the beginning of 2020, when the Fed, like much of the government, moved from complacency about the coronavirus to full-throated action. One of the most important stories here is the $500 billion (which quickly swelled from an original $50 billion proposal) Congress gave the Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve to jointly use in the CARES Act to make semi-direct loans to businesses. Powell supported this move, and helped organize the program to purchase ETFs of corporate bonds, as well as municipal debt, and even some "Main Street" loans to medium sized businesses. In the end, the CARES Act funds alleviated most of the stringency in the market, and the Fed in the end had to purchase only, for instance, two bond issues from Illinois and two from New York's MTA, before running down the program.
The book will offer few revelations however. Powell, who doubtlessly cooperated on background with the book, comes across as a dedicated and quiet public servant, which is similar to his public persona. Trump, of course, carried on most of his feuds in public, and thus there is less private skullduggery than one my expect. The Fed itself has become increasingly transparent and public in recent years, so unlike, say, Greider's classic "Secrets of the Temple," much of this played out in front pages of newspapers. The book, published early in 2022, is also obviously too sanguine about Powell's effort, which now, in the wake of 9 plus percent inflation, can sometimes seem short-sighted. Still, this book offers a wonderful overview of the period and a sharp analysis of the players.
Much of the book, of course, focuses on the crucial months at the beginning of 2020, when the Fed, like much of the government, moved from complacency about the coronavirus to full-throated action. One of the most important stories here is the $500 billion (which quickly swelled from an original $50 billion proposal) Congress gave the Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve to jointly use in the CARES Act to make semi-direct loans to businesses. Powell supported this move, and helped organize the program to purchase ETFs of corporate bonds, as well as municipal debt, and even some "Main Street" loans to medium sized businesses. In the end, the CARES Act funds alleviated most of the stringency in the market, and the Fed in the end had to purchase only, for instance, two bond issues from Illinois and two from New York's MTA, before running down the program.
The book will offer few revelations however. Powell, who doubtlessly cooperated on background with the book, comes across as a dedicated and quiet public servant, which is similar to his public persona. Trump, of course, carried on most of his feuds in public, and thus there is less private skullduggery than one my expect. The Fed itself has become increasingly transparent and public in recent years, so unlike, say, Greider's classic "Secrets of the Temple," much of this played out in front pages of newspapers. The book, published early in 2022, is also obviously too sanguine about Powell's effort, which now, in the wake of 9 plus percent inflation, can sometimes seem short-sighted. Still, this book offers a wonderful overview of the period and a sharp analysis of the players.
April 14, 2022
The first of (what will inevitably be) many play-by-play narratives about the Covid economic policy response. Recommended.
It's a good read that, like any good play-by-play, puts you back in the moment. He basically tracks events day by day, with each event accompanied by a dashboard of covid and stock market conditions.
He has pretty good inside info (clearly he FOIA'd a lot of emails) though some of it is incomplete because his focus is almost entirely on principal policymakers and not their staff. A notable exception is Lorie Logan, a highly capable NY Fed staffer who should be a household name given her critical contributions (go and find her podcast with David Beckworth; it is worth your time). In terms of principals, I think the book shows that Richard Clarida and Lael Brainard deserve more credit than they usually get for genuinely heroic work in 2020 (Jay Powell deserves a lot of credit too, but he already gets that credit from most reasonable people).
I think it's really important that we not forget those early days in March-April 2020 and how different policymakers behaved. Of course, nobody had good forecasts and nobody fully understood what was happening. But some leaders took it seriously, and others didn't, and I think that matters a lot more than any potential subsequent policy mistakes made in good faith.
It's a good read that, like any good play-by-play, puts you back in the moment. He basically tracks events day by day, with each event accompanied by a dashboard of covid and stock market conditions.
He has pretty good inside info (clearly he FOIA'd a lot of emails) though some of it is incomplete because his focus is almost entirely on principal policymakers and not their staff. A notable exception is Lorie Logan, a highly capable NY Fed staffer who should be a household name given her critical contributions (go and find her podcast with David Beckworth; it is worth your time). In terms of principals, I think the book shows that Richard Clarida and Lael Brainard deserve more credit than they usually get for genuinely heroic work in 2020 (Jay Powell deserves a lot of credit too, but he already gets that credit from most reasonable people).
I think it's really important that we not forget those early days in March-April 2020 and how different policymakers behaved. Of course, nobody had good forecasts and nobody fully understood what was happening. But some leaders took it seriously, and others didn't, and I think that matters a lot more than any potential subsequent policy mistakes made in good faith.
November 18, 2024
A day by day to week to week account of the beginning of 2020 and the unprecedented response by Fed led by Jerome Powell and collaboration with fiscal policy through treasury secretary Mnuchin. It’s fascinating to go back to this period and understand the mindset of the main actors during these events. Especially the new programs that were launched in effect to provide confidence in financial markets and reduce business disruption through working capital markets. Who knows what would have happened had the fed not acted so quickly and decisively. Putting myself back in that time I was reading Ben Bernanke’s book on the feds response to the financial crisis of 08-09. All the programs they launched at the time are a drop in the bucket to the nukes unleashed in 2020. This gave me the confidence to buy equities in march of 2020 when I saw the fed unleashing an alphabet soup of programs again. It is also fascinating to see the dynamic between Powell and Trump because here we go again lol.
December 22, 2022
Written predominantly in English, this take on the Fed's response to the pandemic will still prove frustratingly impenetrable to all but those who salivate at the prospect of Bagehot on steroids. Only they will appreciate the gripping play-by-play of the Fed policymaking that Timiraos provides. But his (or his editor's) use of italics does not make the tension any more palpable for the pedestrian reader. Still, the glimmerings of the consequences of the central bank's rapid, outsized response come shining through. Powell's willingness to let inflation run "a little" ahead of the Fed's 2 percent target is all the more reason for the less economically savvy to borrow this book rather than buy it.
March 5, 2023
Highly recommended for those who want to know about the role of the central bank in our economy. However, if you dont have a basic background in finance you may not grasp all the details of the book.
This books tells the day by day events that took place in the white house and US Federal reserve bank during the beginning of the pandemic.
This books tells the day by day events that took place in the white house and US Federal reserve bank during the beginning of the pandemic.
March 19, 2022
Riveting
June 8, 2022
The title is misleading. There are 78 pages that talk on Jerome Powell’s life and career while there is no sign on the cover that it is included in the book. Why I am supposed to read about Powells biography while I wait to see the day by day analysis of 2020 March financial shock. Even the sections about the important events are not that insightful. I regret to purchase this book based on Buffets recommendation.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
June 4, 2023
Lots of unique insights, clear he got a lot of access to write the book.
However, he loses it with objectivity especially towards the end. Ultimately, is a political book that seeks out to dogmatically defend the policy decisions made in 2021 no matter what the results have been.
However, he loses it with objectivity especially towards the end. Ultimately, is a political book that seeks out to dogmatically defend the policy decisions made in 2021 no matter what the results have been.
November 9, 2022
from one of the most trusted sources for fed leaks on wall street this book is complete waste of time
only thing matter is he says pawell is volcker
only thing matter is he says pawell is volcker
November 13, 2024
I’ll start out by saying I’m a republican and I like learning all things related to banking. The bias from the author is very hard at times to ignore, and is mostly not materially important. At one point, the author brings up the fact trump said “very fine people”, indicating that those comments were why one of his Jewish staff members stepped down. What the author failed to explain was how that comment was taken out of context and he failed to explain that. The very fine people hoax is such a joke, it takes 2 minutes to watch and see he clearly wasn’t referring to neo-nazis.
While I don’t agree with how Trump handled his time regarding how he dealt with the Fed, the author fails to give Trump any sort of credit for anything. He fails to give any acknowledgment that Trump was right on the mistake of rising rates in 2018. He fails to mention Trump agreed to a trade deal with Beijing, instead saying “Stocks raised to new records after WASHINGTON and Beijing agreed to a “phase-one” trade deal that would ….” He then immediately blames Trump on how he thought of Covid in January, even though nobody in the world had the slightest idea what would happen, as there had only been 1 case in the U.S.
And again, most of the “pressure” and “battles” with Trump were him tweeting what he thought the Fed should do… Which I don’t think he should have done but he also didn’t force Powell to do anything. He simply stated what he thought they should do, which I think any president has done.
Additionally, how can anyone say with any certainty that Jay Powell “prevented economic disaster” when inflation was 9.1%, the highest in 40 years. Idk about you, but I would say 9.1 percent inflation is an economic disaster. Maybe not as much as another scenario, but still a clear failure, nonetheless. The Fed’s dual mandate is stable prices and full employment, and the author defends this claim that Jay Powell is a genius who made the right decisions despite seeing how his decisions would affect the economy over the long-term.
Aside from the political bias sprinkled throughout and the clear bias of defending all of Powells decision, I really liked this book. I liked how the history of the Fed and its previous chairs were explained. This was a very interesting point in history in terms of central banking and I liked learning more about it. I just wish it was more of a straight forward analysis and account of what happened.
While I don’t agree with how Trump handled his time regarding how he dealt with the Fed, the author fails to give Trump any sort of credit for anything. He fails to give any acknowledgment that Trump was right on the mistake of rising rates in 2018. He fails to mention Trump agreed to a trade deal with Beijing, instead saying “Stocks raised to new records after WASHINGTON and Beijing agreed to a “phase-one” trade deal that would ….” He then immediately blames Trump on how he thought of Covid in January, even though nobody in the world had the slightest idea what would happen, as there had only been 1 case in the U.S.
And again, most of the “pressure” and “battles” with Trump were him tweeting what he thought the Fed should do… Which I don’t think he should have done but he also didn’t force Powell to do anything. He simply stated what he thought they should do, which I think any president has done.
Additionally, how can anyone say with any certainty that Jay Powell “prevented economic disaster” when inflation was 9.1%, the highest in 40 years. Idk about you, but I would say 9.1 percent inflation is an economic disaster. Maybe not as much as another scenario, but still a clear failure, nonetheless. The Fed’s dual mandate is stable prices and full employment, and the author defends this claim that Jay Powell is a genius who made the right decisions despite seeing how his decisions would affect the economy over the long-term.
Aside from the political bias sprinkled throughout and the clear bias of defending all of Powells decision, I really liked this book. I liked how the history of the Fed and its previous chairs were explained. This was a very interesting point in history in terms of central banking and I liked learning more about it. I just wish it was more of a straight forward analysis and account of what happened.
June 6, 2022
How do I say this without being disrespectful... I found it incredibly long and boring. Having lived through this, it's just too recent. Perhaps those will extract the most value who are not living yet, as this is a history book. 20 years from now, people will look back at this event contemplating what could have been, with yet another fed chair to remember. Right now I think they just delay the inevitable. I don't know what the right way to handle a pandemic or an economic disaster is, but I sure dislike market manipulation in any way. I say let there be blood, don't intervene (much). We might all need to pay the piper as there is no free lunch. As a nonamerican, it was weird to see you guys getting the checks and spending it on Robinhood and boobjobs *sighs*. As an investor I heavily dislike when the fed plays marionette with the market. It feels like they like to snowball while some of their friends get rich on insider info. Why so much triage? I believe it was overshot. Let the market suffer a bit, traders will sell short, value investors will ride it out and buy bargains, losers will sell out, tax optimizers without wash sale rules will optimize, good companies will buy back, bad companies with too much debt will default. It's part and parcel of the markets, and there will always be a tomorrow. On the long run these politics and what Trump tweeted really don't matter. There is a reason why I don't like the news yet this partly felt like reciting them. As an investor I only care about individual business performance on a multiple decades long horizon. On that timescale this was just a hiccup. Warren Buffett recommended this book, but unless you are the historian type or Warren himself, you might find better learning materials for investing. Then just accept that the fed does what it wants when it wants to and you have no influence over it so why bother trying to understand... I ended up having to play Forza Horizon 3 to help pass the time while listening to this, it's really that long and political. Not my favorite genre, it seems. Regarding Covid, the Apollo's Arrow book is superior but it tells the story from a medical or more general point of view, how it unfolded and stuff like that.
March 16, 2022
Jerome Powell's "Whatever it Takes" Moment
History has a way of moving on, and just two years later it is difficult to recall how seriously America flirted with a depression in the spring of 2020.
More than any other person, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is responsible for averting this second depression.
Powell was an unlikely Fed Chair. He was not an academic or economist, and by some reports got the job because Donald Trump thought he looked the part. But in a case of the man meeting the moment, Powell proved to be exactly the right person to see the U.S. economy through the coronavirus panic.
Markets convulsed in March of 2020, with U.S. treasuries selling off alongside stocks. Powell and his colleagues "moved fast and broke things" in the parlance of Silicon Valley, crossing red lines and rushing to restore confidence in the financial system. Lend to small business? Ok. Purchase corporate debt? Sure. "Whatever it takes" means whatever it takes.
Powell and his colleagues recognized that "this is the big one" and acted accordingly. Even for the most measured of people, there are times to act big and ask questions later. This was one of those times, and Powell rose above potshots from President Trump and the demagoguery of Elizabeth Warren to take bold steps.
The Fed announced its emergency facilities on the morning of March 23, nearly coinciding with Washington's passage of the CARES act. Markets bottomed that afternoon, and the next morning boarded the rocket ship to new highs. It took another couple months, but it would soon become evident that the U.S. jobs market would far outpace the sluggish recovery from the global financial crisis.
A second depression had been stopped dead in its tracks.
History has a way of moving on, and just two years later it is difficult to recall how seriously America flirted with a depression in the spring of 2020.
More than any other person, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is responsible for averting this second depression.
Powell was an unlikely Fed Chair. He was not an academic or economist, and by some reports got the job because Donald Trump thought he looked the part. But in a case of the man meeting the moment, Powell proved to be exactly the right person to see the U.S. economy through the coronavirus panic.
Markets convulsed in March of 2020, with U.S. treasuries selling off alongside stocks. Powell and his colleagues "moved fast and broke things" in the parlance of Silicon Valley, crossing red lines and rushing to restore confidence in the financial system. Lend to small business? Ok. Purchase corporate debt? Sure. "Whatever it takes" means whatever it takes.
Powell and his colleagues recognized that "this is the big one" and acted accordingly. Even for the most measured of people, there are times to act big and ask questions later. This was one of those times, and Powell rose above potshots from President Trump and the demagoguery of Elizabeth Warren to take bold steps.
The Fed announced its emergency facilities on the morning of March 23, nearly coinciding with Washington's passage of the CARES act. Markets bottomed that afternoon, and the next morning boarded the rocket ship to new highs. It took another couple months, but it would soon become evident that the U.S. jobs market would far outpace the sluggish recovery from the global financial crisis.
A second depression had been stopped dead in its tracks.
October 18, 2022
8/10
"The FED unloaded everything they had, and the market crashed anyway."
It would be difficult to write such a glowing review of Powell's handling of the pandemic, given the aftershocks of inflation that rattle through the economy, largely as a result of the frothy market stirred up by the Fed. Obviously for the most part, I can appreciate what Powell did in light of the novel and terrifying options before him, but even with the extra 7 months of perspective since this book was published, it's difficult not to think that Powell might have been a little overzealous. In his own terms, he left the punch bowl out just a little too long, and we're all feeling the after affects.
I suppose this comes back to the old horse I keep beating: a biography should never be written till its subject has been dead three days, and the history of a subject should not be told until that history is finished. So I suppose that's my only real complaint, Timiraos was a little too understandably eager. Despite this, the book was an excellent accounting of the Fed's policies and reactions to Covid and Government. I would absolutely recommend this.
“If what I said seems clear to you, then you must have misunderstood.” Ben Bernanki, chairman of the Fed.
The US economy generates 2 billion dollars and hour.
"The FED unloaded everything they had, and the market crashed anyway."
It would be difficult to write such a glowing review of Powell's handling of the pandemic, given the aftershocks of inflation that rattle through the economy, largely as a result of the frothy market stirred up by the Fed. Obviously for the most part, I can appreciate what Powell did in light of the novel and terrifying options before him, but even with the extra 7 months of perspective since this book was published, it's difficult not to think that Powell might have been a little overzealous. In his own terms, he left the punch bowl out just a little too long, and we're all feeling the after affects.
I suppose this comes back to the old horse I keep beating: a biography should never be written till its subject has been dead three days, and the history of a subject should not be told until that history is finished. So I suppose that's my only real complaint, Timiraos was a little too understandably eager. Despite this, the book was an excellent accounting of the Fed's policies and reactions to Covid and Government. I would absolutely recommend this.
“If what I said seems clear to you, then you must have misunderstood.” Ben Bernanki, chairman of the Fed.
The US economy generates 2 billion dollars and hour.
September 17, 2025
n this book, Timiraos manages to accurately chronicle the Fed’s actions during the Covid panic in 300 pages while the ordeal for many of us felt much longer than such a short book. He quotes Vladimir Lenin to describe this period in history: ‘There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen’. Indeed, decades did happen immediately when the virus first emerged in the Fed’s unprecedented actions in its rescue of the economy.
The Fed’s actions during this time were much more complex than simply lowering interest rates, with trillions of dollars of relief bills not focused solely on Wall Street. With so many companies in need of cash at the same time, a positive reinforcement loop emerged that drove up liquidity issues even for banks not needing a loan immediately.
The book describes the Fed’s actions instigated by a disregard of the Philips curve in their behaviour, decoupling high inflation from low unemployment and identifying a more dovish sentiment with regards to inflation. The Fed learned from the previous crisis of 2008 that it’s better to act fast with larger packages than needed rather to promise too little and require more support.
I feel that everyone who managed to survive the Covid Panic, and particularly those critical of the Fed and Jay Powell, should read this book.
The Fed’s actions during this time were much more complex than simply lowering interest rates, with trillions of dollars of relief bills not focused solely on Wall Street. With so many companies in need of cash at the same time, a positive reinforcement loop emerged that drove up liquidity issues even for banks not needing a loan immediately.
The book describes the Fed’s actions instigated by a disregard of the Philips curve in their behaviour, decoupling high inflation from low unemployment and identifying a more dovish sentiment with regards to inflation. The Fed learned from the previous crisis of 2008 that it’s better to act fast with larger packages than needed rather to promise too little and require more support.
I feel that everyone who managed to survive the Covid Panic, and particularly those critical of the Fed and Jay Powell, should read this book.
June 28, 2022
One of the best books I’ve read this year. A thrilling account of the crisis of our times - the pandemic induced financial shock of 2020.
Fed Chairman Jay Powell exemplifies the evidence based pragmatic but deeply compassionate Central Banker who along with his team did ‘whatever it took’ to ensure the US and the world didn’t experience what could have been a global depression.
The books lays out in detail the perilous state the US economy was in during March 2020. Credit looked like it was going to completely freeze and the movement of money in the economy looked like it was coming to a complete standstill. As everyone rushed to cash, conventional wisdom was turned on its head as even so called ‘safe investments’ like 10 year US treasuries were being sold off at discounts.
The Federal Reserve had to act with speed and at a scale not seen before and it did, in a way that perhaps would have made even Sir John Maynard Keynes proud. This book is wonderful case study of the Covid-19 induced financial crisis and anyone fascinated by economics and markets would find it very interesting.
Fed Chairman Jay Powell exemplifies the evidence based pragmatic but deeply compassionate Central Banker who along with his team did ‘whatever it took’ to ensure the US and the world didn’t experience what could have been a global depression.
The books lays out in detail the perilous state the US economy was in during March 2020. Credit looked like it was going to completely freeze and the movement of money in the economy looked like it was coming to a complete standstill. As everyone rushed to cash, conventional wisdom was turned on its head as even so called ‘safe investments’ like 10 year US treasuries were being sold off at discounts.
The Federal Reserve had to act with speed and at a scale not seen before and it did, in a way that perhaps would have made even Sir John Maynard Keynes proud. This book is wonderful case study of the Covid-19 induced financial crisis and anyone fascinated by economics and markets would find it very interesting.
November 11, 2022
You will likely not be picking up this book for light night time reading. However, you will be in for a pleasant surprise at how the author has managed to deliver some of the most complex economic/financial concepts in a genuinely engaging manner. I personally started following the markets and the Fed policies closely from around the exact same time as the beginning of the pandemic (like everyone else). The day by day, and sometimes even hourly insights into what will go down as a once-in-a-lifetime situation for most of us was breathtaking. Didn't expect to use that word to review this book. There's a bit of JPow fan-boyism, and that's totally acceptable as it made the book more personable. The quips, anecdotes, and most importantly frequent throwbacks to the prior eras was great educational content for those of us new to the place. All said and done, hats off to the Fed Chair and the team for steering America and virtually the world through what could have been a debilitating crisis leaving us wounded for decades.
Read
May 30, 2022Well written and makes a tough topic accessible. It would benefit from a glossary of terms for the reader to refer back to (FOMC, Secure Act, Cares Act, PPP, Main Street program). A graphic visual of the timeline would also add perspective. These would be dates, decisions, major events, etc.
From a content viewpoint, I read the book all the way through and genuinely liked it. However, while it did provide input of some of the controversy around decisions, it did at times feel like fan-boy literature. I heard Warren Buffet recommend it and why not? He benefited mightily from the monetary policies like everyone already invested in the market. Also, I think the author wasn't tough enough on the Fed's caving on the interest rate increase of 2018 (and subsequent "pirouette"). I think Trump's ranting did, at some level, have an impact on Powell's decision to retract the increase but the author held out that Powell made that decision based on the merits of the situation.
From a content viewpoint, I read the book all the way through and genuinely liked it. However, while it did provide input of some of the controversy around decisions, it did at times feel like fan-boy literature. I heard Warren Buffet recommend it and why not? He benefited mightily from the monetary policies like everyone already invested in the market. Also, I think the author wasn't tough enough on the Fed's caving on the interest rate increase of 2018 (and subsequent "pirouette"). I think Trump's ranting did, at some level, have an impact on Powell's decision to retract the increase but the author held out that Powell made that decision based on the merits of the situation.
August 20, 2023
Timiraos starts off the book with a sweeping history of the Federal Reserve, but interestingly through the perspective of the relationships between Fed Chairs and Presidents throughout the years that have a weak understanding of the word "independent" (esp. Harry Truman lol)
Then we get into a wonderfully fast paced and on the ground look at how Jerome Powell along with Steve Mnuchin, Clarida and others work tirelessly as the pandemic rages and business shut down all across the country, work to ensure the financial system stays afloat. All the while considering all the political and ethical ramifications of these moves, not to mention battling Trumps incessant and counterproductive tweets.
Its definitely worth reading if you are interested in how the scope of the Fed has now expanded from its traditional "Lender of Last Resort' moniker to one that has developed and evolved through the years...
Then we get into a wonderfully fast paced and on the ground look at how Jerome Powell along with Steve Mnuchin, Clarida and others work tirelessly as the pandemic rages and business shut down all across the country, work to ensure the financial system stays afloat. All the while considering all the political and ethical ramifications of these moves, not to mention battling Trumps incessant and counterproductive tweets.
Its definitely worth reading if you are interested in how the scope of the Fed has now expanded from its traditional "Lender of Last Resort' moniker to one that has developed and evolved through the years...
November 16, 2022
Decent overview of the Feds response. Nothing earth shattering but interesting to go back thru the governments COVID response now that inflation has reared its head. My two main takeaways:
While understandable given the sustained lack of US inflation despite accommodative monetary policy it now seems obvious the Fed’s policy shift to reacting only after inflation has been +2% for a sustained period seems to have contributed to the current bout of inflation.
Any further expansion of the Fed’s mandate to fight inequality, climate change, or other ESG issues makes its independence more vulnerable. The current mandate of inflation employment are (mostly) apolitical. A larger mandate will likely result in more Congressional oversight as you can’t have a committee of technocrats setting policy that is supposed to be done by elected officials.
While understandable given the sustained lack of US inflation despite accommodative monetary policy it now seems obvious the Fed’s policy shift to reacting only after inflation has been +2% for a sustained period seems to have contributed to the current bout of inflation.
Any further expansion of the Fed’s mandate to fight inequality, climate change, or other ESG issues makes its independence more vulnerable. The current mandate of inflation employment are (mostly) apolitical. A larger mandate will likely result in more Congressional oversight as you can’t have a committee of technocrats setting policy that is supposed to be done by elected officials.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 4, 2022
Pretty good book that explains the events that transpired from February 2020 to the end of 2021 along with a brief history of the Federal reserve in the beginning of the book (Chapter 2 was my favorite).
Fed was really aggressive and poured an army of money and funds into the econmy with the author concluding it was the right move but there is a lot of uncertainty with the rammifications. I don't like how he kept bashing Trump instead of dealing with the issues objectively....which is why I was tempted to give this book 3 stars or less. I think as of right now in August 2022, this is the only book on this topic of the fed's actions during the Coronavirus. Lets see if there is another book that comes in 2022 or 2023 that can beat this one.
Fed was really aggressive and poured an army of money and funds into the econmy with the author concluding it was the right move but there is a lot of uncertainty with the rammifications. I don't like how he kept bashing Trump instead of dealing with the issues objectively....which is why I was tempted to give this book 3 stars or less. I think as of right now in August 2022, this is the only book on this topic of the fed's actions during the Coronavirus. Lets see if there is another book that comes in 2022 or 2023 that can beat this one.
August 14, 2023
You wouldn't think that a book on monetary policy could be a page turner, but this book is hard to put down.
Timiraos details the Fed's response to Covid with great detail. It is a fascinating book on how the Fed, which normally moves slowly and deliberately, made bold and large decisions with lightning speed during the pandemic.
This book has impressed upon me that one of the Fed's main tools is its credibility and ability to stabilize markets through signaling.
The book also discusses Jay Powell's push to recalibrate the Fed's 2% inflation target. This book better helped me understand the logic behind that policy change.
Timiraos details the Fed's response to Covid with great detail. It is a fascinating book on how the Fed, which normally moves slowly and deliberately, made bold and large decisions with lightning speed during the pandemic.
This book has impressed upon me that one of the Fed's main tools is its credibility and ability to stabilize markets through signaling.
The book also discusses Jay Powell's push to recalibrate the Fed's 2% inflation target. This book better helped me understand the logic behind that policy change.
August 10, 2024
This is a pretty good book, but it felt like it takes too long to get going. The first chapter is a mini biography of Powell, the second chapter is a rundown of the history of the Fed and it's institutional relationship with Congress and the Presidency, and the third was the relationship with Powell and Trump prior to COVID. None of this was bad at all, but it took 100 pages before we got to the pandemic.
Otherwise, it is a great study of how the Fed lowered rates, bought incredibly large amounts of securities, and did their best to keep the economy going. It is still unclear if they all made the correct decisions, but I do think it makes a compelling case that many of these actions needed to be taken.
Otherwise, it is a great study of how the Fed lowered rates, bought incredibly large amounts of securities, and did their best to keep the economy going. It is still unclear if they all made the correct decisions, but I do think it makes a compelling case that many of these actions needed to be taken.
June 6, 2022
Explaining my 3-star rating. This not a bad book. This is an in-depth insight on how Fed and other stakeholders operated during the 2020-2021 pandemic also with some historical context and biographic background of Jay Powell so if you're interested in this - go for it and read it, you'll be satisfied. For me it was too detailed and didn't bring me much more insight on what was happening back then. Maybe I got some respect for Jay Powell. I read this book through Warren Buffet's recommendation who clearly respects the Fed and Jay Powell's actions during the pandemic.
April 9, 2023
"Go Big. Go Fast."
Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos is an insightful and informative book about the response to the COVID-19 crises. The author, a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, provides a detailed account of the actions taken by policymakers in response to the crisis, and the impact those actions had on the economy.
The Go Big and Go Fast decisions made by central banks to keep the world from falling into the next Great Depression was nothing short of impressive.
Have fun with this one.
Trillion Dollar Triage by Nick Timiraos is an insightful and informative book about the response to the COVID-19 crises. The author, a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, provides a detailed account of the actions taken by policymakers in response to the crisis, and the impact those actions had on the economy.
The Go Big and Go Fast decisions made by central banks to keep the world from falling into the next Great Depression was nothing short of impressive.
Have fun with this one.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
May 12, 2023
Well, I came to this book by hearing Warren Buffet recently mentioning it was worthwhile if we want to understand how US economy survived to COVID... It was a huge deal, didn't know that. However, for me, it had too much gossip and details of conversations around politicians, Fed and Trump administration at that time. Had no expectation so it wasn't defrauded but indeed for someone who would like to understand how US economical and political leaders strategized to bring a trillion dolar aid to save US people and businesses from financial disgrace, it worths a reading.
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