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Quarterly Essay #82

Exit Strategy: Politics After the Pandemic

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In the wake of the pandemic, will we see a new politics of social security and concern for the future?  Between the fires and the plague, Scott Morrison had no choice but to adapt his style of leadership. But does he have an exit strategy for Australia from the pandemic?  In this original essay, George Megalogenis explores the new politics of care and fear. He shows how our economic officials learnt the lessons of past recessions and applied them to new circumstances. But where to from here? Megalogenis analyses the shifting dynamics of the federation and the appeal of closed borders. He discusses the fate of higher education - what happened to the clever country? And he what should government be responsible for in the 21st century, and does the Morrison government have the imagination for the job?  'Morrison has no political interest in talking about the future. But passivity does not reduce the threat of another outbreak. In any case, the future is making demands on Australia in other ways.' George Megalogenis has 35 years of experience in the media, including more than a decade in the federal parliamentary press gallery. His book The Australian Moment won the 2013 Prime Minister’s Literary Award for Non-fiction and the 2012 Walkley Book Award and formed the basis for the ABC documentary series Making Australia Great . 

144 pages, Kindle Edition

First published June 28, 2021

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About the author

George Megalogenis

16 books35 followers
George Megalogenis has written three previous Quarterly Essays. His book The Australian Moment won the 2013 Prime Minister's Literary Award for Non-fiction and the 2012 Walkley Award for Non-fiction. He is also the author of Faultlines, The Longest Decade, Australia's Second Chance and The Football Solution.

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Displaying 1 - 22 of 22 reviews
Profile Image for Nick.
252 reviews10 followers
July 8, 2021
This essay asks us to consider what, if any, underlying principles the Morrison govt will use to form policy decisions when we are not in constant crisis. Morrison’s style of passive and knee jerk aggressive reactionary leadership was perhaps uniquely suited to our current circumstance, able, for instance, to roll out historic financial aid in direct opposition to Liberals ‘Debt and deficit’ prior shrieking. But what comes next?

Leigh Sales said it best when she took Frydenberg to task: “The coalition was absolutely screaming blue murder [at Labor spending] during the Global Financial Crisis, claiming that was waste and profligacy… my point is, as you well know, Treasurer, that the Coalition's rhetoric on debt was that it was pure evil. And now you're arguing, when it's needed, that you embrace it. It's a total shift in rhetoric.”

The terrifying reality being that Morrison seems to have no coherent organising principles, policy agenda, or world view, that will actually propel Australia. God help us all.

As an aside, it was distinctly weird reading an essay describing the unfolding of the pandemic and government response play by play. Particularly as NSW (and other states) just entered into a new round of lockdowns. Surreal.
546 reviews2 followers
August 28, 2021
Megalogenis's essay is doomed to irrelevance by the utter failure of the NSW Government to manage the Delta wave and the toxic politics that this abrogation of public policy has delivered. Nevertheless he makes some telling points.
What is more fascinating is the bollocking that Finkel has rightly received for his apologist essay in the correspondence.
Profile Image for Loki.
1,454 reviews12 followers
July 11, 2021
A shorter work from Megalogenis, an overview more than an in depth look at the Morrison government's performance over the 2020-21 period. The title may actually seem misleading, and the subtitle most certainly is (the book is far more about politics during the pandemic), but it serves to draw attention to the fact that there's a whopping great void where there should be an exit strategy and always has been.
Profile Image for Joel D.
339 reviews
July 14, 2021
I'm often critical of Quarterly Essays and this one covered similar terrain to an earlier QE by Katharine Murphy, of which I was pretty scathing. In this case though, I have nothing but praise.

Megalogenis looks at how economic ideology is changing globally alongside (but not necessarily due to) the COVID-19 pandemic. He brings an excellent historical lens, looking at the shifting economic philosophies in the Anglosphere through the 20th and early 21st century. This is more like economic history than just 'hot take' journalism, and I found it really useful. It's a matter of subjective judgment which journalists actually have good insight, but I find that what Megalogenis writes makes sense to me in a rich way and I think has a knack for being true.

That said, while this essay was a pleasure to read and ponder, I'm not sure if Megalogenis was really willing to offer a clear thesis. Maybe it's too soon and the ideas will percolate up for me in future conversations? If I was going to say anything he basically seems to be saying that we are in an era of governments being newly willing to spend (eg USA with Biden, but even Trump before him) and that it remains to be seen whether Australia takes advantage of this or stuffs it up.
27 reviews1 follower
July 21, 2021
I really enjoyed reading this. Very clearly written setting up the context for where we are now politically. His description of what has happened to our education system, especially tertiary education is a sad tale. Where do we go from here. Not sure we know yet.
Profile Image for Maxine.
46 reviews2 followers
July 6, 2021
I think it’s hasty to be writing anything as if we are post pandemic however, Megalogenis still has a respectable crack at summarising the political responses to COVID-19 in Australia drawing on a long sighted view of politics in this country.
It’s clear that all levels of federal government and politics have lost this institutional memory so thankfully we have journos to remind us from time to time.
In summary, Morrison is a hack who will be passive until the 11th hour when his pragmatism kicks in. We should be grateful however that he is no idealogue parroting about debt and deficit still. As for Labor, I don’t think the word Alabanese came up in that entire essay. Telling.
Profile Image for Andrew.
Author 2 books14 followers
September 19, 2021
Reading George Megalogenis’s eloquent and thoroughly researched essay on Australia’s recent political economy, it’s hard not to relive the rollercoaster of emotions that accompanied the onset of the pandemic in Australia. His essay recalls the pride in Australia’s collective response, the sense of security that came with a system of government that functioned when it needed to, enabling us to get on top of the virus and respond appropriately to the economic challenge. There were the trials and quiet traumas of long lockdowns, accompanied by the guilt that came with the knowledge that what we were suffering did not compare with the devastation experienced in places such as the United States or the United Kingdom. And finally, there is our present bewilderment at Australia’s lack of any obvious pathway out of the crisis, even as other nations are opening up.

Megalogenis’s central insight – that lessons from past recessions informed our economic response to the pandemic – is an important one. It points to the method we might deploy as we shape our approach to recovery, once we finally figure out how to emerge from the shadow of the pandemic: lessons from past crises have the potential to shape the recovery that remains ahead of us.

Megalogenis shows us that the transfer of insight from the global financial crisis to the present was largely by virtue of the personal experience of Treasury officials. While this demonstrates the value of this type of policy transfer, it also reveals that Australia’s approach to learning across time and from other jurisdictions is somewhat ad hoc and perhaps Anglocentric. Other nations, such as Singapore, embed policy transfer deeply into the fabric of their public sectors, regularly sending public servants on learning missions abroad, where they seek to absorb knowledge from the world’s best. Australia has room for improvement here.

It must have been challenging for Megalogenis to land a piece like this in the midst of an evolving crisis; the pandemic has yielded a steady supply of plot twists. I am writing this response just as Melbourne enters its sixth lockdown and, with Sydney showing no signs of being able to rein in the virus, it’s clear that Australia’s response is not quite so textbook as it may have seemed when Megalogenis completed his essay. With the pandemic having a way to run, it’s now clear that the depth of the 2020 recession is an inadequate – and overly simplistic – way to assess Australia’s economic performance. More important will be where Australia finds itself when the pandemic is over. In May – before Australia’s latest Delta-driven wave – the OECD was forecasting that Australia would be back to its pre-pandemic GDP per capita by the first quarter of 2022 (surely now an optimistic assessment), meaning we would have experienced two years of lost growth. That puts us tenth among the G20 countries – mid-pack. While our 2020 recession wasn’t as deep, other countries – with higher vaccination rates and more open economies – are recovering faster. As the pandemic has progressed, the importance of the health response to the economy has only become clearer.

While the essay is subtitled “Politics after the Pandemic,” its focus is predominantly on politics during – and in the years before – the pandemic. The promise of an exploration of what comes next remains largely unfulfilled. Yet there are enough insights to point us to a method with which to approach the challenges that await. While Australia responded well to the GFC, it squandered the recovery, experiencing a decade of stagnant economic growth, negligible improvements to productivity and median incomes that went backwards. An effective tactical response to the crisis won’t be enough if we forgo the opportunity the crisis presents.

Following the Spanish Flu in 1918–19, the United States boomed through the Roaring Twenties, fuelled by new technology and social change. In the 1930s, President Roosevelt’s New Deal inspired the confidence that pulled the country out of the Great Depression, with enhanced social security, labour protections and infrastructure investment. Germany and South Korea boomed in the decades after World War II and the Korean War, driven by a determined focus on education and industry policy; both countries pulling themselves out of misery to emerge as among the world’s most advanced economies.

What is common to successful recovery from a crisis is a big ambition for what the nation might become, and a preparedness to plan and deliver over the medium to long term. What might such an agenda look like for Australia? Most obviously, fiscal stimulus must flow for as long as it takes to build economic momentum. The opportunity now is to fashion that stimulus into an agenda that fuels long-term economic growth, ideally while tackling legacy challenges at the same time. Megalogenis is right to point to climate change as the obvious candidate here, and there are no shortages of projects that deliver on this dual objective. Large amounts of private-sector capital are poised and ready to be spent on decarbonisation projects. To unlock this potential, it’s critical that governments provide policy certainty. This will involve a fast-tracked transformation of energy supply towards renewable sources and investment in infrastructure such as energy storage and transmission. Germany, for example, is investing more than €50 billion of its stimulus on initiatives such as electric vehicle–charging infrastructure and the establishment of a green hydrogen sector, a next-generation export industry that will enable it to store and sell surplus renewable energy. South Korea’s “Green New Deal” involves a US$62 billion investment in advanced technology to create jobs – in areas such as renewable electricity, electric vehicles and the circular economy.

The central message that the study of past crises yields, though, is that they do not have to leave a long-term legacy of harm. Places recovering from devastation can create prosperous, exciting futures. People living in New York, Aceh or South Korea now enjoy a quality of life that far exceeds what existed before their crisis. In many instances, such places have not merely recovered, they have gone on to lead the world. It will soon be time – if it’s not already – for Australia to craft a similarly suitable ambition for the decade ahead.

Recovery is not guaranteed. History is also strewn with examples of places that failed to recover. They withdrew economic stimulus too early, or held too tight to their pre-crisis world view. As Megalogenis demonstrates, it’s important that we approach our future in a considered fashion, learning the lessons of the past. While the Covid-19 pandemic has been the biggest crisis of a generation, our recovery also represents an enormous opportunity.

(Response published in Quarterly Essay 83)
Profile Image for Ron Brown.
430 reviews28 followers
July 12, 2021
I always look forward to the arrival of a new Quarterly Essay and Megalogenis’ essay maintains the high standard of essays that this journal continues to produce.
The question Megalogenis asks is will Australian politics be different once the country emerges from this ghastly pandemic? A most valid question.
This essay reminds me of a Peter Fitzsimmons biography of Kim Beazley. The book was published half-way through Beazley’s career. Much more happened in Beazley’s life after the book was published. We are nowhere near the end of COVID.
As I write this review the greater Sydney area is in the grip of another wave of Coronavirus spread. May be this outbreak will lead to different consequences for the country. May be Megalogenis has been too quick off the mark.
My concern is not so much with the politicians, they are fairly predictable in the ideological responses. My concern is the willingness of the Australian electorate being able to embrace change. The result of the 2019 election demonstrated that they are not.
Megalogenis starts his essay by arguing that what is happening with the Biden Presidency is that we are seeing the end of neo-liberal economic and social theory. The old trickle down don’t work! Government intervention is back on the drawing board. National debt is no loner the big bad bogeyman that conservatives have made out. Finally, there are many things that governments can do better than private enterprise. This is something I hope Dan Andrews and Labor has learnt.
The author describes in detail a history of economic reform since the Hawke/Keating days and how both major parties adopted aspects of neo-liberalism in their policy platforms. He touches on how an appalling leader Abbott was as PM and how successful he was as an Opposition Leader. He describes the steps Rudd, Henry and co took to successfully save Australia from the consequences of the GFC.
His essay moves on to the Morrison’s Government response to the COVID pandemic. Personally, I think Morrison has at no stage displayed great leadership. As many on social media say, “ScoMo from marketing” has little to offer in vision as to what Australia needs to do now and in the future to improve the lives of those who have suffered. As he has said, “I don’t hold the hose mate” and “It’s not a race” reflects his excuse making and his failure get out in the front in the leadership game.
I would have appreciated Megalogenis explaining in greater detail what happened between the first financial assistance package, the second and then the third. From my memory it was what the Conservative Government in the UK decided to do and pressure from the ACTU that prompted the LNP to go further.
Megalogenis promotes the role of the Treasury secretary, Steven Kennedy and the National Cabinet as the driving force. Whatever was the story the cost of JobKeeper, JobSeeker and supplementary support to business was going to cost billions of dollars. The LNP would preside over the greatest deficit since WW2.
Megalogenis mentions it and I have pondered this question constantly. What would have been the LNP and the Murdoch media’s reaction if Shorten had been elected in May 2019 and it was a Labor Government overseeing this huge growth in debt? I can just hear the pundits on Sky!! The author writes, “Only a conservative free of ideology could have dropped the dogma of debt and deficit without prevarication or regret.” I only hope that the electorate remembers this if and I believe when a future LNP government cries debt and deficit and launches attacks on welfare recipients and others at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder.
Megalogenis deals with the manner in which the LNP dealt with the tertiary education sector and private education. It was an amplified demonstration of right-wing ideology dealing with sectors of the community they despise and sectors that they pander.
One of my favourite quotes from the essay is “Shrinking Australia’s ambition to fit an electoral map in which the quarry trumps the brain economy is a model for decline.” On previous pages Megalogenis had written a most fascinating section on voting patterns across Australia and how politicians aim their speech and some policies specifically at those seats. We saw how successful the LNP was in winning so many Queensland seats in 2019.
In his concluding pages Megalogenis discusses the present and future problems this country faces.
Decline in population due to falling immigration. This is also linked to a skills shortage in the Australian workforce. The bigger role of government in the economy. “… care is primarily the business of government, not the market.” The role of states and premiers in national decision making. The huge issue of climate change. One issue that he ignores is Australia’s relationship with China. Morrison’s greatest diplomatic blunder has been his handling of our relationship with this powerful authoritarian state and his calling for an investigation into the origins of COVID in China. I am neither a Chinafile nor a Chinaphobe but I have been absolute appalled at the manner in which our government has catapulted us to the top of the China hate pile, not that we are alone. The absurdity of LNP ministers and senior bureaucrats talking of war is gobsmacking in its idiocrasy It will be some time before this relationship is mended.
I think this is a timely essay, the author has reflected on Australia over the last few decades and how we have reached the position we are in today. Megalogenis is reserved in his beliefs about Morrison’s ability to lead us out of this COVID catastrophe. I am not, I don’t think Morrison has one strand of leadership in his whole make up. His party is stuck back in the twentieth century and I don’t think Morrison has the intellect or the stamina to deal with the issues this country will face as it exists the COVID pandemic.

Profile Image for A.M..
Author 7 books58 followers
July 23, 2022
Ah my sweet summer child. Fancy thinking in - checks notes - June 2021 - that the pandemic would be over soon? Our economy recovering? And that Australia would not be in one TRILLION dollars debt after the LNP held government for almost a decade?

I really think John Howard is our Ronald Reagan. You know that set of graphs where you can put an arrow at when they were elected leader, and everything after that just gets worse.

3 stars
Profile Image for Greg.
565 reviews14 followers
December 10, 2021
A very good essay from a very good author. Essentially about Scott Morrison's plans for the future after the pandemic (if he has any). Has he learnt any lessons form the bushfires and the pandemic or is he merely going to try to rotten to business as usual? Probably the latter.
Profile Image for Alex.
320 reviews
July 13, 2021
Succinct review of the Morrison government's economic response to the pandemic and the ideological underpinnings of its decision.
Profile Image for Holstein.
202 reviews1 follower
August 21, 2021
A concise and insightful overview of pandemic politics with a good comparison to Australia's response to the GFC.
Profile Image for Andrew.
Author 2 books3 followers
October 13, 2021
Maybe one of the most valuable Quarterly's to read before the next election.
Profile Image for Kerry.
983 reviews27 followers
January 19, 2024
this shows a hopeful picture of the future of Australian politics. Let's hope his predictions are correct!
Profile Image for John.
51 reviews1 follower
September 23, 2021
Very interesting read. Extremely well written and critiques the key players without bias.
Profile Image for Sam Schroder.
564 reviews7 followers
August 19, 2021
Between the fires and the plague, Scott Morrison has shown us the kind of ‘leader’ he is. And in so doing, leaves us pondering what chance there is that he has an exit strategy for the nation. Is it all just as simple as spend, spend, spend?
In this truly engrossing essay (they’re often not), Megalogenis analyses the shifting dynamics of a country with closed borders and asks what kind of government we will need as we traverse this truly brand new world. He argues that Morrison has no political interest in talking about the future.
Of particular interest to me, Megalogenis also discusses the decimation of higher education, as Morrison locked universities out of the deeply generous financial support he so happily lavished on business in 2020, we have every right to ask, what, indeed, has happened to the clever country?
Profile Image for Kerry.
983 reviews27 followers
August 19, 2021
Very interesting commentary on our future directions. It is a perfect time to change directions but I can't see it happening.
Profile Image for Benjamin Stahl.
2,271 reviews72 followers
August 13, 2021
A brief but informative analysis of the Morrison government's handling of the pandemic. While its overall tone was fairly critical, it does not feel like an overly biased hit-piece against the prime minister who, personally, I actually like. The most sad and frustrating thing about reading this is the fact that the dreaded worst-case scenario of a third outbreak has now happened, at least within my home state of New South Wales.
Profile Image for Clare Snow.
1,282 reviews102 followers
did-not-finish
September 25, 2024
DNF 20%

Reading this as "we slip from the short list of countries to be envied." NSW premier says we'll all get Omicron, while our world-class health system feels the strain.

Then I got bored and stopped reading...
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