Is the American Century Coming to an End?
In these volatile geopolitical times I thought it may be instructive to read more about Australia's alliance with the U.S.. Australia is a small (population-wise), but resource rich country that punches above its weight, and as we move into the second quarter of the 21st century, it will likely have to continue to balance its security ties with the U.S. with its growing trade reliance on China as those two countries are becoming more adversarial.
Do we need a "big brother"? We have been "all the way with LBJ" ... and every other president since ANZUS has been around in the early 50's, but the author argues that it is a one-way treaty -- we have helped the U.S. out in every skirmish since that time, but it is unclear if the U.S, would reciprocate - unless it is in their interest to do so. New Zealand exited the treaty in 2012 due to its stance on nuclear weapons, but without any real impact to its relationship with America. But does that mean we should go it alone? Every playground has a bully and it can pay to have a big brother (and we have more resources than the Kiwis).
The author is clearly no fan of the U.S. From nuclear armament to climate change to rampant capitalism to race relations the U.S. has taken the wrong path and dragged Australia along with it. The arguments she makes in support of these positions tend to be a bit holier than thou (IMO) and ignore the reality of an electorate that has a short term memory and demands lots of stuff and doesn't want to pay much for it. This results in the author misstating a range of issues.
For example, referring to the success of the deterrence approach adopted by nuclear powers, Shortis notes that 70 years without nuclear armageddon is hardly a solid dataset on which to base the safety of the entire world. In fact, I would argue that the world has been safe from armageddon for the entire history of nuclear armament (with a slight blip in Japan at the outset). Sure - Reagan and Trump have done some chest-thumping in support of using nukes, but we are all still here. I do not walk the corridors of power, but (particularly with Trump - I hope!) there is likely a difference between the rhetoric and the reality.
In another chapter, she asks .."in what universe is it possible to think that environmental activism and a career on Wall Street are compatible?" In fact, capitalism and a social conscience are not mutually exclusive - many good companies (and jobs) have been created to address climate change and there are more to come. I do believe that climate change has the potential to be an existential threat to the world, but ideological purity is not the most practical response to this threat. Unfortunately Donald Trump is about to take control again and we are in for another four years of "drill, baby, drill". She also references the pettiness of large US tech companies revolting when the Australian federal government required them to pay for the use of Australian media content. Facebook definitely overreacted, but, to be clear, Facebook is a public company (albeit not state owned), not a private company (a small quibble but you may as well get your facts right). She also notes that law enforcement agencies in the US and Australia....treat violent white supremacy as a problem of individuals, of misunderstood but sympathetic figures.... I don't think anyone sees the Charlottesville mob or Timothy McVeigh as sympathetic or misunderstood!
I think the author's issues are really more related to the short-termism of political leaders (in both countries) and a U.S electoral system that is becoming less reflective of the will of the majority of its citizens because they live in populous states. Of course, you can't write a book like this today without honing in on Trump. The book was written before Trump won the November 2024 election - so we are in for another four years of mayhem. The pessimist in me argues that if Trump does what he says he will, then life as we know it will be irrevocably altered. In fact, he could be setting the stage for the end of the American century.
What does all this mean for the actions that should be taken. The U.S. (and more broadly the Western hemisphere) presumes a sense of moral authority that provides it with the cover to take unilateral action (our approach is better, therefore we can impose our will on you). Unfortunately, the author only looks at one side of this equation and does not examine the shortcomings of the other side (human rights anyone?) It would be interesting to better understand China's motives for the rest of this century (to the extent that is possible). The author deliberately shies away from offering solutions arguing that she is just focusing on summarizing the history. This strikes me as a cop-out as she offers up her opinions and critiques all the way through the book. Hiding behind an academic gown does not absolve you of the importance of offering possible solutions.
At the end of the day, the issue is one for Australia to resolve. Should it abandon ANZUS and tie its fortunes more closely to China? Should it stick with the status quo and try to muddle through? At what point could the country get caught in a U.S. initiated conflict that is a step too far? Bottom line - I have no idea, I am just a lousy book reviewer. But ... I do think the next four years will help crystalize an answer to these questions.