A real-life thriller about a nation in crisis, and the controversial decisions its leaders made during the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, the government instituted no restrictions. Then, it didn’t order the wearing of face masks. While the rest of the world looked on with incredulity, condemnation, admiration, and even envy, a small country in Northern Europe stood alone. As COVID spread across the globe rapidly, the world shut down. But Sweden remained open.
The Swedish COVID strategy was alternately lauded and held up as a cautionary tale by international governments and journalists alike — with all eyes on what has been dubbed ‘The Swedish Experiment’. But what made Sweden take such a different path?
In The Herd, journalist Johan Anderberg narrates the improbable story of a small nation that took a startlingly different approach to fighting the virus, guiding the reader through the history of epidemiology and the ticking-clock decisions that pandemic decision-makers were faced with on a daily basis.
The Herd is an odd beast, one that is grounded and unprovocative until it isn't. Perhaps the title tips the wink, but as a maths and stats man, the fundamental arguments that run through The Herd, and its exploration of Sweden's approach to the COVID pandemic is one I had myself just over two years ago. We apply a cost-benefit analysis to health decisions all the time, particularly in countries with socialised healthcare - even if we pretend not to. What was it about COVID 19 that was different, why was a disease with what looked like such a low mortality rate (particularly in the young) the trigger for massive lockdowns. The Herd is interesting because it looks particularly at the Swedish case, identifies a few stubborn key players, and teases it all out in a true crime way waiting for the shoe to drop. Which it never really does. The eventual thesis of the book is that Sweden did the right thing. I think to get to that conclusion it ignores a few salient points about risk management and the global response, but makes a solid number of good points.
This is a Swedish story which has to explain in translation why what people think of as social democratic and progressive Sweden isn't quite the Sweden on 2020. It also has to explain how much power government departments have under the Swedish constitution (its against the law for ministers to meddle in the operation of their own departments for example). Couple that with a few historical missteps (a vaccination crisis in the 90's), and an absolutist zeal that the damage done to the young is greater than the effect of the death toll in the old, and the perfect scenario is created. Sweden followed the science, but it also followed the social science, and broadly - a weak and rather anonymous Prime Minister was happy to let the experts fight their corner. And as the numbers break down, they weren't particularly wrong - the UK - who were initially fellow travellers on Herd Immunity - have had a much worse death toll and a much greater economic impact.
However I had two problems with The Herd: which probably stem from being inside the Swedish bubble. The book never really lets us see the dynamic internal media position on COVID. There is a lot of talk about the general public confidence in the health office, and some talk of dissenting op eds - but no sense on whether this was seen as pressure on the government or not. Equally it does not really saw how the "optional" restrictions worked. There is no talk of numbers of people choosing not to socialise, how voluntary restrictions worked compared to compulsory ones (it starts to talk more and more about freedom in its back half once confident in snaring its oppositional readers). Because the biggest flaw is a lack of engagement in the psychology of the lockdown mentality. Right or wrong, it is a mentality which existed in private companies before it existed in some governments, the responsibility workplaces had to their staff and customers. The responsibility we had to teachers and other people on the frontline. It may well be that prolonged lockdowns did nothing to stop the eventual death-toll, but the individual unable to risk assess for themselves, or their family properly were also people who might have to tell bar staff to keep working. And the same for governments, who wanted to be responsible for huge death tolls - or at least to try to make the argument that doing nothing might be a proactive step? The Herd also does not talk about variants, and how unchecked spread allows for mutation, and this seems a flaw particularly when you get to the second wave (and before we hit Omnicron).
Nevertheless The Herd is a well researched book without a particularly didactic point of view. And its question - interesting when you consider China's continued chase after Covid Zero - is if we can really say lockdowns worked (outside of New Zealand...), and if not, will they be repeated in future. The Herd has an interesting point of view on that - though I fear its central learning is one which will be the same as everywhere else - once committed to a course it is very hard to change.
Everyone has heard about Sweden and COVID-19. While the rest of the world locked down and stayed home, the people of Sweden lived a relatively normal life during 2020. They went to school or work, and dined in restaurants before dancing in nightclubs. But why was Sweden so different? More importantly, how well did Sweden fare compared to other countries? This book describes what happened, why and how it changed.
The Herd describes a number of key figures in Sweden’s initial pandemic response and how the decisions not to lockdown were made, with the background to understand why. News reports declined to share how these decisions were made (and they weren’t made easily, with a lot of discussion, consultation and thoughts). One of the key differences is that Sweden’s initial handling of the pandemic was managed by public health experts without including political rivalries or how things would look to voters. Another thing to keep in mind is that Sweden took a different path during the swine flu pandemic, vaccinating the entire population, which led to some harm with some people developing Guillain-Barre syndrome. (If you don’t remember swine flu, it’s because it really didn’t have the impact initially predicted). So Sweden was determined to be cautious, consider the evidence and make decisions without politics being the major factor.
Anderberg has really done his homework, with descriptions of emails between the main players, as well as describing the evidence and models (with their benefits and shortcomings). He makes obvious how much we just didn’t know at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and why some of the initial models ended up being way off. (The short of it is, the better the data you put in, the more accurate the output is. Or, it’s like baking a cake when you only know one ingredient. You can guess the rest, but it probably won’t taste the same). There are good descriptions of not only modelling, but cost benefit analysis which make sense to the lay reader. It also describes how muddied the message can get when other factors are at play like egos and political drive.
The events are clearly laid out and told in a logical, orderly fashion without suggesting Sweden’s path was superior to that taken to other countries. (It does go into the resulting data though). It’s a fascinating look at a different pathway that made me reconsider a lot of the history I’ve read about pandemics. Is the way it’s always been the right way? Or can we do more with the tools we have (models, cost-benefit analyses)? Well worth a read if you’re interested in pandemic responses.
Thank you to Scribe for the copy of this book. My review is honest.
This reads like a history book, for me, except that the events happened in the not so distant past! This made it utterly captivating. We can all recount our own experiences of the pandemic, but reading this account of how it was experienced by Sweden's leading politicians / epidemiologist etc puts a whole new slant on it that is a real eye opener.
The author is a journalist, and with detailed background information relating to the main players he has clearly done his homework.
Sweden's approach to the pandemic is truly fascinating and it is a pleasure to be able to read about it in this well written portrayal.
My thanks to Netgalley, author and publisher for the opportunity to review this book in exchange for an advance copy.
A serious and detailed account of how things could have been done differently, for the greater benefit of all humankind, without detriment of the dangers inherent in a viral pandemic, all based in reason and politically unbiased scientific research.
The only nation in the whole world that made things right!
This was an excellent book that outlines how the Swedes approached the covid period. Their leaders did better than much of the rest of the world, far better than the vile, fearmongering fanatics who governed Australia and the United Kingdom. And yet had they not given into fear, they could have done even better. The battle that the agency did against pressure was very noble, and they fought well until the government moved in and overruled them.
I already had a positive opinion of Anders Tegnell (the leader of the relevant Swedish agency for pandemic control) and this book only strengthens that view. He was rigorously scientific in his approach but there was also the fact that he (and Sweden) had overreacted to swine flu in 2009. They had been burnt and did not want to be burnt so again. Because Sweden made a small mistake earlier, they were less likely to make that big mistake that virtually all other countries did.
How only one country managed a 'bare pass' in their reaction to covid continues to amaze me.
I am not a non-fiction reader but this book was written in a way that kept my attention, it even had an element of suspense. It covers so much more than just covid and the Swedish strategy. It was such an eye opener to learn why the Swedes did what that they did and that lockdowns in other countries were often political and later found to be ineffective. A very interesting read.
Interesting book about the how the 2020 pandemic was handled in Sweden and the results. Analysis of how Sweden's results compared with the rest of the world were included. The information was presented in short, very readable chapters and was easy and interesting to read. I gained many new insights and perspectives. This book is worth reading.
The Herd is a thrilling read about tight-knit groups of microbiologists and epidemiologists, old grudges, new alliances, and fiery emails … Anderberg is ambitious, knowledgeable, and fearless. Dagens Nyheter
The Herd is exemplary journalism of the kind that comes close to the truth through skilled craftsmanship. Anderberg portrays the events in the right order. He relies on relevant facts. He puts the last year in a historical context. He examines without preconceived opinions … Anderberg’s book is like a Corona commission in its own right and a beautiful example of the important role journalism plays in the service of the truth. Barometern
Reading Johan Anderberg’s book is not just a way to get perspective and background, detailed descriptions of how the Swedish strategy was formed and what it led to. It is also a way to be released from the debate, both in social and other media. It is extremely cooling. The Herd is no debate book; it is a nuanced report from an incredibly strange time. So strange you need help finding the words to talk about it. Aftonbladet
Journalist Johan Anderberg makes a brave effort to tell the story about how Sweden chose its path through the pandemic … Anderberg’s narrative has an effortless ease that manifests itself once the writer has a clear overview, and truly masters his subject without getting sidetracked and stuck on details. Sydsvenskan
Anderberg masters to perfection the societal reportage that closely examines the authorities, effortlessly taking us into the meeting rooms and email inboxes where the Swedish Corona strategy took shape. With efficiency and humour, he visualises his protagonists … In a climate where media personalities — myself included — often acted as supporters, critics, and hobby epidemiologists, Anderberg has instead buried himself in facts and tried to paint the overall picture … Questions remain after having finished reading The Herd, but this in no way takes away the honour of having accomplished this impressive pioneering work with such energy and wit from Johan Anderberg. The Herd is sure to greatly impact the debate that we’ve only seen the nascent beginnings of so far. Expressen
The Herd is not only a real page-turner, it takes the reader on a journey through the history of pandemi in an exemplary educational way. You learn a lot! In addition, the book is nicely written and contains many warm and funny personal descriptions of all those who were invalde and took responsibility for the Swedish corona strategy. So read the Herd!
I was "gifted" this book and then told the person who gave it to me wanted to read it and then pass it on to a third person, so I decided I'd better read it quickly and get it on it's way.
The Herd is a thrilling read about tight-knit groups of microbiologists and epidemiologists, old grudges, new alliances, and fiery emails … Anderberg is ambitious, knowledgeable, and fearless. Dagens Nyheter
The Herd is exemplary journalism of the kind that comes close to the truth through skilled craftsmanship. Anderberg portrays the events in the right order. He relies on relevant facts. He puts the last year in a historical context. He examines without preconceived opinions … Anderberg’s book is like a Corona commission in its own right and a beautiful example of the important role journalism plays in the service of the truth. Barometern
Reading Johan Anderberg’s book is not just a way to get perspective and background, detailed descriptions of how the Swedish strategy was formed and what it led to. It is also a way to be released from the debate, both in social and other media. It is extremely cooling. The Herd is no debate book; it is a nuanced report from an incredibly strange time. So strange you need help finding the words to talk about it. Aftonbladet
Journalist Johan Anderberg makes a brave effort to tell the story about how Sweden chose its path through the pandemic … Anderberg’s narrative has an effortless ease that manifests itself once the writer has a clear overview, and truly masters his subject without getting sidetracked and stuck on details. Sydsvenskan
Anderberg masters to perfection the societal reportage that closely examines the authorities, effortlessly taking us into the meeting rooms and email inboxes where the Swedish Corona strategy took shape. With efficiency and humour, he visualises his protagonists … In a climate where media personalities — myself included — often acted as supporters, critics, and hobby epidemiologists, Anderberg has instead buried himself in facts and tried to paint the overall picture … Questions remain after having finished reading The Herd, but this in no way takes away the honour of having accomplished this impressive pioneering work with such energy and wit from Johan Anderberg. The Herd is sure to greatly impact the debate that we’ve only seen the nascent beginnings of so far. Expressen