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Flawed Prophets: Why we love predicting the future, and how we can be better
Have you ever wondered why humans love to predict the future?
When we talk about prophecies, we only think about the mystical ones like Nostradamus or the Mayans - we forget that we all do it. All the time. We bet on the outcomes of sporting events; we try to figure out optimal career paths; we forecast stock market prices - we seem to be animals obsessed with the future. Why?!
At the same time, why are we often so bad at predictions? Why couldn't our experts predict the 2008 financial market crash or the great plague of London? We all need to be able to foresee what's coming down the road and our mental flaws obscure that view. We are all prophets, yes, but we are also flawed. Can we become better?
What did the most accurate visionaries of human history - the ones who saw further into the future than the rest of us (Einstein, Kepler, Rachel Carson, or Michelangelo) - do differently? Can we learn from their strategies? What can we learn from firefighters? What happened when Centaurs fought Hydras? Why do we need to remove classrooms from schools and traffic lights from roads?
In this book, you'll find answers to these questions.
When we talk about prophecies, we only think about the mystical ones like Nostradamus or the Mayans - we forget that we all do it. All the time. We bet on the outcomes of sporting events; we try to figure out optimal career paths; we forecast stock market prices - we seem to be animals obsessed with the future. Why?!
At the same time, why are we often so bad at predictions? Why couldn't our experts predict the 2008 financial market crash or the great plague of London? We all need to be able to foresee what's coming down the road and our mental flaws obscure that view. We are all prophets, yes, but we are also flawed. Can we become better?
What did the most accurate visionaries of human history - the ones who saw further into the future than the rest of us (Einstein, Kepler, Rachel Carson, or Michelangelo) - do differently? Can we learn from their strategies? What can we learn from firefighters? What happened when Centaurs fought Hydras? Why do we need to remove classrooms from schools and traffic lights from roads?
In this book, you'll find answers to these questions.
180 pages, Paperback
Published July 31, 2021
4 people are currently reading
140 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews
August 25, 2021
I’m glad the “about the author” section was at the end cuz it would’ve been hard to focus on the book had i known how dashing he was right at the start.
all jokes aside though this is a book you will be smarter at the end of reading. It is a wonderfully written and entertaining book that perfectly walks the fine line between nerd and layman. i urge everyone to read it!
all jokes aside though this is a book you will be smarter at the end of reading. It is a wonderfully written and entertaining book that perfectly walks the fine line between nerd and layman. i urge everyone to read it!
August 17, 2021
The consummate storyteller 5/5
The utmost easy as to which one story gives way to the next belies the herculean efforts the author put into the research of this book.
The subject matter of the book is as intimidating as it is complex but in the hands of a master storyteller that is Mr. Saha each story unfolds with complete ease and understanding.
The book opens with the story of Greg and Roslyn an ordinary couple who wondered and predicted what the future might be. This is a masterstroke of storytelling from Tirthak, it is a completely relatable story and from here the book pulls you in.
From the birth of the universe to the birth of cinema, from seeking instant gratification to more controlled and logical rational reasoning, this book takes us on many journeys.
Given the complexities of the book’s subject matter, it really is a testament to the strength of Tirthak’s storytelling that momentum and interest never wanes. Each story is told with effortless ease.
Weaving the theme of human prediction, how and why we do it, how and why we fail and succeed, the stories that explore this theme are gloriously edifying.
A number of highlights for me were chapters 2 where I had to put the book down, pause and take stock of what I just read, chapter 3 equally fascinating with regards to our understanding of the dopamine affect and the various studies within that field, chapter 8 and the calculation error and chapter 9 remembering to forget.
Told with enthusiasm and passion, this book makes you think, and it encourages you to ask questions and to seek answers and makes you realise the limitless possibilities of mankind
Whilst reading the book, there were several times I felt my walls of ignorance being blasted away.
Forged by the burning passion of a great storyteller, open this book, read this book, read this book again, read this book with an open mind and allow it to question your long held beliefs on how things should be done absorb the book and enjoy the journey of mankind’s predictions.
The utmost easy as to which one story gives way to the next belies the herculean efforts the author put into the research of this book.
The subject matter of the book is as intimidating as it is complex but in the hands of a master storyteller that is Mr. Saha each story unfolds with complete ease and understanding.
The book opens with the story of Greg and Roslyn an ordinary couple who wondered and predicted what the future might be. This is a masterstroke of storytelling from Tirthak, it is a completely relatable story and from here the book pulls you in.
From the birth of the universe to the birth of cinema, from seeking instant gratification to more controlled and logical rational reasoning, this book takes us on many journeys.
Given the complexities of the book’s subject matter, it really is a testament to the strength of Tirthak’s storytelling that momentum and interest never wanes. Each story is told with effortless ease.
Weaving the theme of human prediction, how and why we do it, how and why we fail and succeed, the stories that explore this theme are gloriously edifying.
A number of highlights for me were chapters 2 where I had to put the book down, pause and take stock of what I just read, chapter 3 equally fascinating with regards to our understanding of the dopamine affect and the various studies within that field, chapter 8 and the calculation error and chapter 9 remembering to forget.
Told with enthusiasm and passion, this book makes you think, and it encourages you to ask questions and to seek answers and makes you realise the limitless possibilities of mankind
Whilst reading the book, there were several times I felt my walls of ignorance being blasted away.
Forged by the burning passion of a great storyteller, open this book, read this book, read this book again, read this book with an open mind and allow it to question your long held beliefs on how things should be done absorb the book and enjoy the journey of mankind’s predictions.
March 12, 2023
The book is as awesome as the author is. Smart funny and with full of amazing facts. It’s a delight to read this book. Finished it in one sitting. If I could I would give one extra star for its gorgeous author. Crushing over him since came to know about him 😁
June 14, 2022
I loved the perspectives on important historical stories and how it was woven into the essence of the book.
But, the book keeps shifting its focus from one point to another and each chapter felt disconnected from what the author was trying to say. Ultimately the message seems lost in a bunch of loosely connected stories.
But, the book keeps shifting its focus from one point to another and each chapter felt disconnected from what the author was trying to say. Ultimately the message seems lost in a bunch of loosely connected stories.
August 30, 2022
Great read! Those who liked Fluid by Ashish Jaiswal, will definitely like this one too! 👌
July 30, 2023
It is an amazing book with a lot of history, good storytelling and science mixed together in a funny way that makes you ponder more and more over the future.
September 24, 2024
Such a brilliant book. Each chapter was exciting and informative!
The author is famously known for his story telling skills, I expected it to be good, the book served ♥️
The author is famously known for his story telling skills, I expected it to be good, the book served ♥️
February 6, 2026
There are so many anecdotes with which Saha examines : the human predilection for making predictions, the conditions which ensure greater accuracy in our predictions and the human potential in precarious times. The anecdotal references are wide ranging from scientific breakthroughs to AI, to industrial case studies to art. You name it! All taken from different time periods.
The subject is contemporary and he has such fresh insights to offer all the while keeping the language simple and the book crisp yet profound.
The subject is contemporary and he has such fresh insights to offer all the while keeping the language simple and the book crisp yet profound.
May 17, 2022
tl;dr: It's a fairly decent book if you're just getting into non-fiction.
It presents a bunch of good stories and facts, without delving into any one of them.
This left me wanting more out of each story, but might also be favoured by new readers who wouldn't have the attention span, or the interest for the details
The most annoying thing I found about the book was its transitions from one story to the next. It lacked direction and felt like a LinusTechTips sponsor segue
It presents a bunch of good stories and facts, without delving into any one of them.
This left me wanting more out of each story, but might also be favoured by new readers who wouldn't have the attention span, or the interest for the details
The most annoying thing I found about the book was its transitions from one story to the next. It lacked direction and felt like a LinusTechTips sponsor segue
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews