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BAD BELIEFS:WHY THEY HAPPEN TO GOOD PEOPLE
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations.
Bad beliefs - beliefs that blatantly conflict with easily available evidence - are common. Large minorities of people hold that vaccines are dangerous or accept bizarre conspiracy theories, for instance. The prevalence of bad beliefs may be politically and socially important, for instance blocking effective action on climate change. Explaining why people accept bad beliefs and what can be done to make them more responsive to evidence is therefore an important project.
A common view is that bad beliefs are largely explained by widespread irrationality. This book argues that ordinary people are rational agents, and their beliefs are the result of their rational response to the evidence they're presented with. We thought they were responding badly to evidence, because we focused on the first-order evidence the evidence that directly bears on the truth of claims. We neglected the higher-order evidence, in particular evidence about who can be trusted and what sources are reliable. Once we recognize how ubiquitous higher-order evidence is, we can see that belief formation is by and large rational.
The book argues that we should tackle bad belief by focusing as much on the higher-order evidence as the first-order evidence. The epistemic environment gives us higher-order evidence for beliefs, and we need to carefully manage that environment. The book argues that such management need not be once we recognize that managing the epistemic environment consists in management of evidence, we should recognize that such management is respectful of epistemic autonomy.
Bad beliefs - beliefs that blatantly conflict with easily available evidence - are common. Large minorities of people hold that vaccines are dangerous or accept bizarre conspiracy theories, for instance. The prevalence of bad beliefs may be politically and socially important, for instance blocking effective action on climate change. Explaining why people accept bad beliefs and what can be done to make them more responsive to evidence is therefore an important project.
A common view is that bad beliefs are largely explained by widespread irrationality. This book argues that ordinary people are rational agents, and their beliefs are the result of their rational response to the evidence they're presented with. We thought they were responding badly to evidence, because we focused on the first-order evidence the evidence that directly bears on the truth of claims. We neglected the higher-order evidence, in particular evidence about who can be trusted and what sources are reliable. Once we recognize how ubiquitous higher-order evidence is, we can see that belief formation is by and large rational.
The book argues that we should tackle bad belief by focusing as much on the higher-order evidence as the first-order evidence. The epistemic environment gives us higher-order evidence for beliefs, and we need to carefully manage that environment. The book argues that such management need not be once we recognize that managing the epistemic environment consists in management of evidence, we should recognize that such management is respectful of epistemic autonomy.
212 pages, Hardcover
Published December 31, 2021
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April 4, 2025
I read briefly about Levy's perspective in the book Religion as Make-Believe. Here, Leeuwen opposed Levy's emphasis on trust and his claim that our epistemic facilities are working as they should be, and it is polluted and distorted signals that result in bad beliefs. Since Leeuwen's critique did not persuade me, I was curious to read Levy's book. Interestingly, Levy interacts with Religion as Make-Believe (which was forthcoming when Bad Beliefs was written). Anyhow, there was plenty I liked in Bad Beliefs--I do wish I had written a review closer to my finishing the book, for now, several of the details have faded from my mind. I still can recall the primary reaction and the mental wrestling that followed from certain portions of the book. I will share these here.
Almost every book of this sort (I have gone through a LOT of them) uses climate deniers as the primary test case. As I am skeptical that human activity is the primary driver of climate change, I am the epitome of someone who has bad beliefs according to Levy and practically every other author who has written on the topic in modern times. I am a threat and people like me may just be the doom of the human race.
I do like how this is a book of philosophy and that he comes at the issue in a charitable manner. His point (as I took it) is the scientific consensus strongly asserts humans are the primary cause, and we as non-experts have no justification at all to disagree on the matter--in this area, we should not doubt and not question, but instead, we are to trust and obey, as we are out of our depth. He points out how oil companies took note of Big Tabacco—who attempted to sow doubt—to show the complexities and thus keep people from taking action against smoking. When the airways are so polluted, decent people will have a harder time trusting the experts and will more likely form bad beliefs. The view hints at the necessity of censorship, like what we witnessed during COVID-19, when even a Congressmen who read a scientific paper from the floor (saying cloth masks were ineffective) was banned from YouTube for mentioning something that went against the supposed "consensus" and google sought to purge all "misinformation", much of which was later learned to be true.
I do wish Levy would acknowledge one of the major reasons people like me (who trust science in most other regards) are skeptical that humans are the primary cause of global warming. Yes, why do we who go with the “consensus” in most scientific matters fail to in this case? Might we be justified?
I trust the "consensus" except when there is a religious-like, fanatical dogma, and an inquisition of sorts against anyone who is not in lockstep. If scientists can only get funding to support the "correct" narrative, and even though causation is astronomically complex, only a limited set of explanations can even asserted, I began to have my doubts. If a heretical scientist is to critically evaluate the dogmas or to research causal explanations outside of orthodoxy, means they will be labeled and lose reputation, credibility, and funding, is it any surprise that we have a consensus? When your career depends upon agreeing with the group OR ELSE, it is human nature to agree, and it is my right to question the consensus of the experts.
When things become politicized and ideological, that is when I become cautious. Levy seems to think we MUST agree with the consensus of the experts, regardless. So, if we were living during the height of Eugenics, and the scientific consensus was that racism was real--documented and well-established FACT, then our job is to unquestionably believe that and support eugenics and racist policy. Levy also seems to be in favor of censorship against science deniers who would want to question and sow doubt. Interestingly, it was the elite Progressives who loathed all the science deniers who denied the scientific consensus before the rise of Hitler. The scientific community, many politicians, and the progressive elite wholeheartedly agreed with the racist scientific consensus and believed in eugenics. It was the conservative Christians who were science deniers, they all had "bad beliefs". Interestingly, the experts believed that racial mixing was leading to catastrophe and that eugenics was necessary to SAVE civilization; without radical action, we'd see the ruin of the human species. At this time, it was only a few loan scientists who dared to go against the consensus. Anthropologists could only get funding to prove the key tenets of racism (is it any surprise they found what they were looking for?!)
So yes, think about it, Levy seems to think ordinary people should always unquestionably believe the scientific consensus, and failure to do so is to have bad beliefs, yet at the height of Lysenkoism in Russia, the scientific consensus in the USSR rejected Mendelian genetics and enacted ludicrous notions that led to the starvation of millions. The USSR made sure anyone who spoke out against Lysenko’s science went to the Gulag (it is likely a wet dream of the Progressives today, oh how they’d love to ship off all the climate deniers to concentration camps so they can save the planet). Anyhow, if the USSR allowed for freedom of speech, some people would have likely spoken out against the scientific consensus, they would be Lysenko deniers, and would thus have BAD BELIEFS, daring to disagree with the expert consensus that was killing millions.
But honestly, would it be bad beliefs?! When science becomes ideological and politicized, and the consensus is mere groupthink, then scientists must conform to the group identity beliefs OR ELSE. In Russia, it was this or execution or the gulag, in the USA it is the inability to publish, the loss of reputation, and the ruin of your career. Anyhow, THAT is the problem. Like it or not, climate science has become politicized, it is ideological—scientists are not free to disagree or explore alternative explanations. So the left is just furious, here we have almighty science, the chief authority, yet conservatives are skeptics! Well, maybe they have a reason for skepticism!
While I do not dispute that climate change is occurring, when I investigated it, I found that even global warming alarmists (when forced to act as apologists) acknowledge that human activity is almost null compared to nature, however, their talking point is to assert (without any evidence) that humans are the spark that causes natural run-away feedback loops. I learned the entire theory rests upon this premise, and yet I tried and researched this and I learned experts don't know diddly yet, it is all speculation and they acknowledge there is a lot they do not know on the feedback loops.
So we have an extremely complex system and we humans contribute something like 0.03% to the greenhouse effect. Yet dogmatically, this 0.03 is asserted to be the absolute cause of all climate change, and not only that but it is implied that we must undermine the entirety of civilization and install draconian laws to prevent imminent human extinction. This global problem is in need of global solutions, and it is impossible to make the developed world to return to our pre-industrial past without incredible power from the Elites. Talking about a politician's dream! What is horrible, is if unexplored natural factors are causing global warming, then eliminating our 0.03 contribution (at the cost of the complete ruin of all moderation) would do nothing. Climate change would continue, but we humans in taking drastic measures could lead to the death of billions, all for nothing. Getting the cause right on this IS IMPORTANT. Dogma does not help anyone. In this case, it is extremely dangerous.
Almost every book of this sort (I have gone through a LOT of them) uses climate deniers as the primary test case. As I am skeptical that human activity is the primary driver of climate change, I am the epitome of someone who has bad beliefs according to Levy and practically every other author who has written on the topic in modern times. I am a threat and people like me may just be the doom of the human race.
I do like how this is a book of philosophy and that he comes at the issue in a charitable manner. His point (as I took it) is the scientific consensus strongly asserts humans are the primary cause, and we as non-experts have no justification at all to disagree on the matter--in this area, we should not doubt and not question, but instead, we are to trust and obey, as we are out of our depth. He points out how oil companies took note of Big Tabacco—who attempted to sow doubt—to show the complexities and thus keep people from taking action against smoking. When the airways are so polluted, decent people will have a harder time trusting the experts and will more likely form bad beliefs. The view hints at the necessity of censorship, like what we witnessed during COVID-19, when even a Congressmen who read a scientific paper from the floor (saying cloth masks were ineffective) was banned from YouTube for mentioning something that went against the supposed "consensus" and google sought to purge all "misinformation", much of which was later learned to be true.
I do wish Levy would acknowledge one of the major reasons people like me (who trust science in most other regards) are skeptical that humans are the primary cause of global warming. Yes, why do we who go with the “consensus” in most scientific matters fail to in this case? Might we be justified?
I trust the "consensus" except when there is a religious-like, fanatical dogma, and an inquisition of sorts against anyone who is not in lockstep. If scientists can only get funding to support the "correct" narrative, and even though causation is astronomically complex, only a limited set of explanations can even asserted, I began to have my doubts. If a heretical scientist is to critically evaluate the dogmas or to research causal explanations outside of orthodoxy, means they will be labeled and lose reputation, credibility, and funding, is it any surprise that we have a consensus? When your career depends upon agreeing with the group OR ELSE, it is human nature to agree, and it is my right to question the consensus of the experts.
When things become politicized and ideological, that is when I become cautious. Levy seems to think we MUST agree with the consensus of the experts, regardless. So, if we were living during the height of Eugenics, and the scientific consensus was that racism was real--documented and well-established FACT, then our job is to unquestionably believe that and support eugenics and racist policy. Levy also seems to be in favor of censorship against science deniers who would want to question and sow doubt. Interestingly, it was the elite Progressives who loathed all the science deniers who denied the scientific consensus before the rise of Hitler. The scientific community, many politicians, and the progressive elite wholeheartedly agreed with the racist scientific consensus and believed in eugenics. It was the conservative Christians who were science deniers, they all had "bad beliefs". Interestingly, the experts believed that racial mixing was leading to catastrophe and that eugenics was necessary to SAVE civilization; without radical action, we'd see the ruin of the human species. At this time, it was only a few loan scientists who dared to go against the consensus. Anthropologists could only get funding to prove the key tenets of racism (is it any surprise they found what they were looking for?!)
So yes, think about it, Levy seems to think ordinary people should always unquestionably believe the scientific consensus, and failure to do so is to have bad beliefs, yet at the height of Lysenkoism in Russia, the scientific consensus in the USSR rejected Mendelian genetics and enacted ludicrous notions that led to the starvation of millions. The USSR made sure anyone who spoke out against Lysenko’s science went to the Gulag (it is likely a wet dream of the Progressives today, oh how they’d love to ship off all the climate deniers to concentration camps so they can save the planet). Anyhow, if the USSR allowed for freedom of speech, some people would have likely spoken out against the scientific consensus, they would be Lysenko deniers, and would thus have BAD BELIEFS, daring to disagree with the expert consensus that was killing millions.
But honestly, would it be bad beliefs?! When science becomes ideological and politicized, and the consensus is mere groupthink, then scientists must conform to the group identity beliefs OR ELSE. In Russia, it was this or execution or the gulag, in the USA it is the inability to publish, the loss of reputation, and the ruin of your career. Anyhow, THAT is the problem. Like it or not, climate science has become politicized, it is ideological—scientists are not free to disagree or explore alternative explanations. So the left is just furious, here we have almighty science, the chief authority, yet conservatives are skeptics! Well, maybe they have a reason for skepticism!
While I do not dispute that climate change is occurring, when I investigated it, I found that even global warming alarmists (when forced to act as apologists) acknowledge that human activity is almost null compared to nature, however, their talking point is to assert (without any evidence) that humans are the spark that causes natural run-away feedback loops. I learned the entire theory rests upon this premise, and yet I tried and researched this and I learned experts don't know diddly yet, it is all speculation and they acknowledge there is a lot they do not know on the feedback loops.
So we have an extremely complex system and we humans contribute something like 0.03% to the greenhouse effect. Yet dogmatically, this 0.03 is asserted to be the absolute cause of all climate change, and not only that but it is implied that we must undermine the entirety of civilization and install draconian laws to prevent imminent human extinction. This global problem is in need of global solutions, and it is impossible to make the developed world to return to our pre-industrial past without incredible power from the Elites. Talking about a politician's dream! What is horrible, is if unexplored natural factors are causing global warming, then eliminating our 0.03 contribution (at the cost of the complete ruin of all moderation) would do nothing. Climate change would continue, but we humans in taking drastic measures could lead to the death of billions, all for nothing. Getting the cause right on this IS IMPORTANT. Dogma does not help anyone. In this case, it is extremely dangerous.
July 27, 2023
A riveting view on the importance of distributed epistemic labor.
Humans as social and cultural agents rely heavily on the peers, experts, and in general higher-order evidence as a means to scaffold cognition.
This comes as an evolutionary advantage while the caveats remain as made more noticeable in modern parlance as various forms of epistemic pollution. The book in parts downplays these downsides albeit presenting some solutions to decontaminate these aberrant takes and misinformation. Nevertheless, I agree with the overall idea.
Humans as social and cultural agents rely heavily on the peers, experts, and in general higher-order evidence as a means to scaffold cognition.
This comes as an evolutionary advantage while the caveats remain as made more noticeable in modern parlance as various forms of epistemic pollution. The book in parts downplays these downsides albeit presenting some solutions to decontaminate these aberrant takes and misinformation. Nevertheless, I agree with the overall idea.
October 18, 2025
It reads pleasantly for a philosophy book, with interesting ideas, but that is partially due to it all remaining somewhat superficial. Some of the proposals, outsourcing beliefs in particular, lead to much more complications than is pretended here. They need more detail and argument. It occasionally read more like public rather than academic philosophy.
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