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Geopolitics for the End Time: From the Pandemic to the Climate Crisis
A sharp vision of our changing world order as Covid and climate breakdown usher in a new ‘survival of the fittest’.
How well have different cultures and societies responded, and could this become a turning point in the flow of history?
Before Covid, a new competition was already arising between alternative geopolitical models–but the context of this clash wasn’t yet clear. What if it takes place on neutral ground? In a state of nature, with few or no political rules, amid quickly evolving chaos? When the greatest threat to national security is no longer other states, but the environment itself, which countries might rise to the top?
This book explores how Covid-19 has already transformed the global system, and how it serves as a prelude to a planet afflicted by climate change. Bruno Maçães is one of the first to see the pandemic as the dawn of a new strategic era, heralding a profoundly changed world-political landscape.
How well have different cultures and societies responded, and could this become a turning point in the flow of history?
Before Covid, a new competition was already arising between alternative geopolitical models–but the context of this clash wasn’t yet clear. What if it takes place on neutral ground? In a state of nature, with few or no political rules, amid quickly evolving chaos? When the greatest threat to national security is no longer other states, but the environment itself, which countries might rise to the top?
This book explores how Covid-19 has already transformed the global system, and how it serves as a prelude to a planet afflicted by climate change. Bruno Maçães is one of the first to see the pandemic as the dawn of a new strategic era, heralding a profoundly changed world-political landscape.
240 pages, Hardcover
Published September 2, 2021
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Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews
October 23, 2021
There are pages upon pages of erudite sophistication and not an ounce of common sense.
This is a short thing, perfect for an Edinburgh-London train ride or perhaps to sit with when you are stuck waiting for a transfer at Schiphol (the latter will add a nice veneer of cosmopolitanism, which this book reeks of). There are only four chapters altogether, all built and named after the main idea that we, the humanity, are riding the Earth like a huge spaceship.
The first one is a huge trip through the author's personal paranoia laced with narcissism: he is a very important person, coveted intellectual, and so he is touring Asia just as the virus breaks out in Wuhan. What we are reading is, essentially, Mr Maçães' travelogue and so we are navigating through the dense miasma of fear coupled with a solid admiration for everything that is Asian (For the record, I have checked the latest numbers for Singapore when reading because I could not believe this laudation for what I essentially believe to be a dystopian state overreach, and laughed). He tries to reflect on fear, but it is so badly done that if you are interested in how politicised fear works go for Politics of Fear (cannot recommend it high enough) or A State of Fear: How the UK government weaponised fear during the Covid-19 pandemic. Even Be Very Afraid: The Cultural Response to Terror, Pandemics, Environmental Devastation, Nuclear Annihilation, and Other Threats, which was written 10 years ago has more to offer in this regard.
The second chapter is perhaps the only one worth reading in the whole book. It looks at the latest changes in the international system and attempts a reading of geopolitical cards, especially pondering the Sino-American conundrum (best if you read Destined for War: can America and China escape Thucydides’ Trap? earlier for a wider perspective).
The third one is a cursory look at globalisation, including economy and technology. The former, is a school of red herrings (you might like it if you are a believer in Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer the Austrian school so instead of praises for the manic money printing I wanted to read something about the impending hyperinflation - there was nothing - alas!), the latter is a fervent religious zealot preaching.
Then there is the climate change mantra, for the grand finale. Again, no serious issue is even questioned once. It is all about decarbonisation and a race to new technologies that will set the standards and remake the world anew. Also, the oil will cost less than 20$ per barrel. In the face of the ongoing energy crunch, one needs to admit the obvious disparity between politically-driven ideological agendas and our current palette of viable solutions that in fact make the situation worse (More solar panels and electric vehicles means more mining means more energy consumption means more solar panels means that we end up like Texas last winter.) And yet, such a conclusion is missing in the book.
And this is my biggest problem here, even though Mr Maçães poses many clever questions and ponders several lofty ideas, not even once does he question the most fundamental issues that should be examined, given where we are finding ourselves nearly two years into the pandemic (check those Singapore numbers, you will see that we are roughly back to square one). As important as the things he writes about are the things that do not fit his relatively small purview: Australia changes into the largest prison on earth, nuclear power, or the Scandinavian way of dealing with the public health challenge.
Do not get me wrong, I appreciate Mr Maçães as one of the more interesting personas that have their distinct voice when it comes to commenting on the current state of affairs. However, this book is an excellent example of something that is as ludicrous as it is shortsighted. If you want to read it, read it fast, lest it becomes either obscure or an absurdity.
This is a short thing, perfect for an Edinburgh-London train ride or perhaps to sit with when you are stuck waiting for a transfer at Schiphol (the latter will add a nice veneer of cosmopolitanism, which this book reeks of). There are only four chapters altogether, all built and named after the main idea that we, the humanity, are riding the Earth like a huge spaceship.
The first one is a huge trip through the author's personal paranoia laced with narcissism: he is a very important person, coveted intellectual, and so he is touring Asia just as the virus breaks out in Wuhan. What we are reading is, essentially, Mr Maçães' travelogue and so we are navigating through the dense miasma of fear coupled with a solid admiration for everything that is Asian (For the record, I have checked the latest numbers for Singapore when reading because I could not believe this laudation for what I essentially believe to be a dystopian state overreach, and laughed). He tries to reflect on fear, but it is so badly done that if you are interested in how politicised fear works go for Politics of Fear (cannot recommend it high enough) or A State of Fear: How the UK government weaponised fear during the Covid-19 pandemic. Even Be Very Afraid: The Cultural Response to Terror, Pandemics, Environmental Devastation, Nuclear Annihilation, and Other Threats, which was written 10 years ago has more to offer in this regard.
The second chapter is perhaps the only one worth reading in the whole book. It looks at the latest changes in the international system and attempts a reading of geopolitical cards, especially pondering the Sino-American conundrum (best if you read Destined for War: can America and China escape Thucydides’ Trap? earlier for a wider perspective).
The third one is a cursory look at globalisation, including economy and technology. The former, is a school of red herrings (you might like it if you are a believer in Modern Monetary Theory, I prefer the Austrian school so instead of praises for the manic money printing I wanted to read something about the impending hyperinflation - there was nothing - alas!), the latter is a fervent religious zealot preaching.
Then there is the climate change mantra, for the grand finale. Again, no serious issue is even questioned once. It is all about decarbonisation and a race to new technologies that will set the standards and remake the world anew. Also, the oil will cost less than 20$ per barrel. In the face of the ongoing energy crunch, one needs to admit the obvious disparity between politically-driven ideological agendas and our current palette of viable solutions that in fact make the situation worse (More solar panels and electric vehicles means more mining means more energy consumption means more solar panels means that we end up like Texas last winter.) And yet, such a conclusion is missing in the book.
And this is my biggest problem here, even though Mr Maçães poses many clever questions and ponders several lofty ideas, not even once does he question the most fundamental issues that should be examined, given where we are finding ourselves nearly two years into the pandemic (check those Singapore numbers, you will see that we are roughly back to square one). As important as the things he writes about are the things that do not fit his relatively small purview: Australia changes into the largest prison on earth, nuclear power, or the Scandinavian way of dealing with the public health challenge.
Do not get me wrong, I appreciate Mr Maçães as one of the more interesting personas that have their distinct voice when it comes to commenting on the current state of affairs. However, this book is an excellent example of something that is as ludicrous as it is shortsighted. If you want to read it, read it fast, lest it becomes either obscure or an absurdity.
October 3, 2021
You might not fully agree with all the arguments and conclusions but Bruno’s view on complex issues is always refreshing.
As with Belt and Road he has once again shown a capacity to aggregate facts and thoughts from various sources into simple and understandable arguments from which he reaches his own conclusions.
We are still in the middle of the pandemic and so there is a big margin for error, especially when instead of keeping to the orthodoxy Bruno dares to get off the beaten track bringing forth original ideas and arguments, but that just makes this book more commendable.
As with Belt and Road he has once again shown a capacity to aggregate facts and thoughts from various sources into simple and understandable arguments from which he reaches his own conclusions.
We are still in the middle of the pandemic and so there is a big margin for error, especially when instead of keeping to the orthodoxy Bruno dares to get off the beaten track bringing forth original ideas and arguments, but that just makes this book more commendable.
October 7, 2021
Like the rest of Bruno's work, Geopolitics for the End Time is bold, counterintuitive and deeply engaging. In this book he convincingly lays out what he sees as the contours of an emerging international order in which technological competition and adaptation to an increasingly hostile natural environment will take precedence over direct conflict between states. Strongly recommended.
January 16, 2023
Too philosophical for my taste and sometimes even utterly boring. I terms of geopolitics I prefer Tim Marshall’ s books.
December 31, 2021
These are the latest thoughts of the author about how the world is shaping up. I have to admit to being a fan of his work, so I bought the book more or less as soon as it came out. It didn't serve to disappoint me. There are some really acute observations in the book, many that are worthy of further reflection and development.
The main thesis of the book is that the plate tectonics of geopolitics are changing. America is in relative decline and China is very much a rising power. The course of the next couple of decades will be determined by how the two rub along together. In unwinding the analysis, the author makes a number of propositions, which we can accept or reject, but which paint an interesting picture.
A key point is that the relationship between China and the US underwent a fundamental change in the years of President Trump, and is likely to continue along those lines for some time to come. In the first two decades of the century, the US was accommodating to China's rise. China was admitted into the various global institutions without first having to undertake fundamental reform. Just recently, that policy has been exchanged for one of containment and confrontation, especially in East Asia.
How can China react to this? So far, much of the reaction has been in terms of a 'whole of government' approach to international conflict, where trade and finance are just one of a number of tools open to be used in the struggle against America. In order to reconcile the competition of the national struggle with the co-operation needed in international trade, China has developed the policy of 'Dual Circulation' - foes at home and friends abroad. This allows us to view Chinese trade through the lens of a wider struggle.
This may not mean the end of either globalisation or capitalism. It does mean that both are likely to change in the near future. Trade and finance are likely to have greater state control imposed as they start to become policy instruments. Co-operation will be directed to giving one party an advantage over the other. Satellite states will be developed to implement state policy.
Where does this all end? In the book, it ends with global crises (the pandemic, climate change) being weaponised as a vehicle through which nations can compete. It is all about asserting superiority and gaining an advantage. We may worry that this could well end up with something far more sinister, but the book does not concern itself with possible solutions to this apparent problem.
There is certainly enough to keep the mind occupied in this book. It's fairly short and quite compact, which means that it is not a difficult read. Some parts are a bit obscure, and could do with a second read. I imagine that it is a book to which I shall return frequently in the years ahead.
The main thesis of the book is that the plate tectonics of geopolitics are changing. America is in relative decline and China is very much a rising power. The course of the next couple of decades will be determined by how the two rub along together. In unwinding the analysis, the author makes a number of propositions, which we can accept or reject, but which paint an interesting picture.
A key point is that the relationship between China and the US underwent a fundamental change in the years of President Trump, and is likely to continue along those lines for some time to come. In the first two decades of the century, the US was accommodating to China's rise. China was admitted into the various global institutions without first having to undertake fundamental reform. Just recently, that policy has been exchanged for one of containment and confrontation, especially in East Asia.
How can China react to this? So far, much of the reaction has been in terms of a 'whole of government' approach to international conflict, where trade and finance are just one of a number of tools open to be used in the struggle against America. In order to reconcile the competition of the national struggle with the co-operation needed in international trade, China has developed the policy of 'Dual Circulation' - foes at home and friends abroad. This allows us to view Chinese trade through the lens of a wider struggle.
This may not mean the end of either globalisation or capitalism. It does mean that both are likely to change in the near future. Trade and finance are likely to have greater state control imposed as they start to become policy instruments. Co-operation will be directed to giving one party an advantage over the other. Satellite states will be developed to implement state policy.
Where does this all end? In the book, it ends with global crises (the pandemic, climate change) being weaponised as a vehicle through which nations can compete. It is all about asserting superiority and gaining an advantage. We may worry that this could well end up with something far more sinister, but the book does not concern itself with possible solutions to this apparent problem.
There is certainly enough to keep the mind occupied in this book. It's fairly short and quite compact, which means that it is not a difficult read. Some parts are a bit obscure, and could do with a second read. I imagine that it is a book to which I shall return frequently in the years ahead.
March 20, 2022
This is a very sober book - it doesn't praise and it doesn't condemn. It rather seeks to understand. It wants to understand why different countries and different peoples reacted in massively different ways to the pandemic. Why some were willing to drastically change their lifestyles to adapt to the new realities while others stubbornly refused to inconvenience themselves even in the slightest ways. The author, having experienced the pandemic in the East and in the West, is in a unique position to elaborate on the mentality of people and the way the pandemic was viewed through vastly different lenses. On the one hand, it is viewed through thrpugh the prism of government structures but, on the other, it is viewed through the eyes of individuals.
I found chapter two particularly interesting. Chapter two, titled "Star Wars", contains a number of figures pertaining to global trade, focusing on the relationship between China and the US. In November 2020 the biggest market for Chinese goods was the US which bought almost $52 billion worth of goods, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%. The author makes a fascination connection - the pandemic stimulus packages served to subsidize Chinese manufacturing which quickly recovered after the initial shock of the pandemic. The latest Biden stimulus package alone could lead to an 0.5% increase in China's GDP. 2020 was also historic for the EU as well since this was the year China deposed the IS as the EU's main trading partner.
From a socio-economic perspective, the pandemic also exposed deep societal inequalities and deepened them further still. The 100 richest Americans added $600 billion to their wealth in 2020. But at the same time it showed us "the impossible" - the economy had to be and was indeed put on pause in order to save lives. It also demonstrated that "some forms of production and commerce meet basic human needs, while others have no legitimate claims to uninterrupted revenue streams and can be discontinued forthwith."
The book finally explores why this crisis is perceived differently from the climate crisis and has evoked a different response but why the climate crisis may end up being very similar to the pandemic crisis in that it will also become a competition between nations. It ends with "the return of geopolitics" in the real sense - the return of the struggle for control over strategic territorial deposits of the raw materials necessary for the technological revolution bound to happen as states decarbone their economies.
The ending is not optimistic. But maybe it shouldn't be optimistic.
I found chapter two particularly interesting. Chapter two, titled "Star Wars", contains a number of figures pertaining to global trade, focusing on the relationship between China and the US. In November 2020 the biggest market for Chinese goods was the US which bought almost $52 billion worth of goods, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%. The author makes a fascination connection - the pandemic stimulus packages served to subsidize Chinese manufacturing which quickly recovered after the initial shock of the pandemic. The latest Biden stimulus package alone could lead to an 0.5% increase in China's GDP. 2020 was also historic for the EU as well since this was the year China deposed the IS as the EU's main trading partner.
From a socio-economic perspective, the pandemic also exposed deep societal inequalities and deepened them further still. The 100 richest Americans added $600 billion to their wealth in 2020. But at the same time it showed us "the impossible" - the economy had to be and was indeed put on pause in order to save lives. It also demonstrated that "some forms of production and commerce meet basic human needs, while others have no legitimate claims to uninterrupted revenue streams and can be discontinued forthwith."
The book finally explores why this crisis is perceived differently from the climate crisis and has evoked a different response but why the climate crisis may end up being very similar to the pandemic crisis in that it will also become a competition between nations. It ends with "the return of geopolitics" in the real sense - the return of the struggle for control over strategic territorial deposits of the raw materials necessary for the technological revolution bound to happen as states decarbone their economies.
The ending is not optimistic. But maybe it shouldn't be optimistic.
December 22, 2021
Written in the midst of still-unfolding events and so something like a second draft of history, it starts slow with some fairly routine commentary on the early period of the pandemic, but hits its stride on what this means for his vision of geopolitics (a world game for control of nature) that is original and stimulating.
July 5, 2022
There's nothing wrong with being a one-hit-wonder. Bruno Maçães definitely achieved that with History has Begun. This book is something different, the message gets lost in the author's multiple ideas... it reads as over researched but lacking direction.
If anything, read History has Begun and dispense this book.
If anything, read History has Begun and dispense this book.
January 25, 2022
Liked it. Very insightful summation of the covid crisis and how various governments particularly China and the USA reacted to it.
January 30, 2022
Interesting interpretation of our current state of (economically & politically) affairs globally, and what might be next to come.
February 26, 2022
1.5 stars
The book started off with some promise, then really failed to deliver.
Also, on values - I’m a universalist
The book started off with some promise, then really failed to deliver.
Also, on values - I’m a universalist
March 1, 2022
A whirlwind tour of the previous 24 months. I relived the early days of the pandemic and also got some insights into how the disruption will be changing the future for good.
March 6, 2022
Messy in its articulation and shallow in its analysis.
May 18, 2022
Insightfull
December 4, 2024
In Geopolitics for the End Time, Bruno Maçães delves into the diverse global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, using them as a lens to examine broader geopolitical trends and the rise of alternative governance models. The book positions the pandemic as a precursor to the larger crises humanity will face in a climate-challenged world, providing sharp insights into how power dynamics are evolving on a global scale.
Maçães raises intriguing questions and skillfully brings together a wide array of facts and perspectives, crafting arguments that push readers to reconsider traditional approaches to geopolitics. However, the book often prioritizes breadth over depth, leaving certain crucial connections—such as those between governance approaches and climate resilience—only partially explored. This lack of deeper analysis left me to wish for a more robust framework to tie his observations together.
Moreover, Maçães refrains from offering concrete solutions to the monumental problems he identifies, such as global inequality in crisis responses or the transition to sustainable systems. This omission leaves the book feeling more diagnostic than prescriptive—a wake-up call without a clear direction forward. But perhaps this omission make the conclusion even more obscure.
Maçães raises intriguing questions and skillfully brings together a wide array of facts and perspectives, crafting arguments that push readers to reconsider traditional approaches to geopolitics. However, the book often prioritizes breadth over depth, leaving certain crucial connections—such as those between governance approaches and climate resilience—only partially explored. This lack of deeper analysis left me to wish for a more robust framework to tie his observations together.
Moreover, Maçães refrains from offering concrete solutions to the monumental problems he identifies, such as global inequality in crisis responses or the transition to sustainable systems. This omission leaves the book feeling more diagnostic than prescriptive—a wake-up call without a clear direction forward. But perhaps this omission make the conclusion even more obscure.
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15 reviews