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A Sultan in Autumn
“A comprehensive and clear-eyed political analysis of Turkey under Erdoğan, a leader whose complicated dance with internal and external actors has taken Turkey away from democracy, but, on a note of hope, has perhaps not taken democracy away from Turkey.”
JENNY WHITE, AUTHOR OF TURKISH KALEIDOSCOPE (2021)
“A sultan in autumn is a sultan at his most dangerous. Soner Çağaptay gives a full account of Erdoğan at this critical period. A crystal-clear report on the rise and fall of a quasi-dictator in the age of ascendant authoritarianism.”
ECE TEMELKURAN, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND AUTHOR OF HOW TO LOSE A COUNTRY (2019)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ruled Turkey for nearly two decades. Here, Soner Çağaptay, a leading authority on the country, offers insights on the next phase of Erdoğan’s rule. His dwindling support base at home, coupled with rising opposition, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Turkey’s weak economy, would appear to threaten his grip on power.
How will he react?
In this exceptional analysis, Çağaptay casts Erdoğan as an inventor of nativist populist politics in the twenty-first century. The Turkish president knows how to polarize the electorate to boost his base, and how to wield oppressive tactics when polarization alone cannot win elections. Çağaptay contends that Erdoğan will cling to power—with unfortunate costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies. The associated dynamics, which carry implications far beyond Turkey’s borders—and what they portend for the United States—make A Sultan in Autumn a must-read for all those interested in Turkey and the geopolitics of the next decade.
Soner Çağaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and Director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, USA. His latest book, Erdogan’s Empire, was published in September 2019 by I.B. Tauris.
JENNY WHITE, AUTHOR OF TURKISH KALEIDOSCOPE (2021)
“A sultan in autumn is a sultan at his most dangerous. Soner Çağaptay gives a full account of Erdoğan at this critical period. A crystal-clear report on the rise and fall of a quasi-dictator in the age of ascendant authoritarianism.”
ECE TEMELKURAN, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND AUTHOR OF HOW TO LOSE A COUNTRY (2019)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ruled Turkey for nearly two decades. Here, Soner Çağaptay, a leading authority on the country, offers insights on the next phase of Erdoğan’s rule. His dwindling support base at home, coupled with rising opposition, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Turkey’s weak economy, would appear to threaten his grip on power.
How will he react?
In this exceptional analysis, Çağaptay casts Erdoğan as an inventor of nativist populist politics in the twenty-first century. The Turkish president knows how to polarize the electorate to boost his base, and how to wield oppressive tactics when polarization alone cannot win elections. Çağaptay contends that Erdoğan will cling to power—with unfortunate costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies. The associated dynamics, which carry implications far beyond Turkey’s borders—and what they portend for the United States—make A Sultan in Autumn a must-read for all those interested in Turkey and the geopolitics of the next decade.
Soner Çağaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and Director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, USA. His latest book, Erdogan’s Empire, was published in September 2019 by I.B. Tauris.
- GenresPoliticsMiddle East
137 pages, Kindle Edition
Published September 9, 2021
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About the author
Soner Çağaptay
6 books23 followersSoner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.
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Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews
June 21, 2021
Soner is known on Twitter for his dumb takes on eastern European and Mediterranean geopolitics, but this book is a short and well-written attempt that explains the straits Erdogan is currently at. The author gave away the .pdf version on Twitter for free a few weeks ago, so I went ahead and read it on a flight last week; and while I understand the author's hesitation and hopping around of the subject (since we live in strange times), I believe it should be stressed out that post-1923 Turkey has always been a semi-rogue state, with 1930s imagery, thirsting for a strongman leader.
Erdogan didn't exactly force and pry his way into this Islamic dictatorship and against all odds - the throne has always been there, a relic from the Ottoman days and Kemal's strongman persona. As Soner mentions in the book, Kemal was in power for 15 years, and Erdogan now has a tenure of 18 years. What Soner definitely doesn't mention, is that Kemal's reign and secular reforms now appear to be a parenthesis, a gap that seems completely alien to modern-day Turkey, and that is understated clearly by how easy it has been for Erdogan to cast aside most of Kemal's legacy. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions know no bounds and in a calculated manner infringe upon other countries' sovereign rights, without regard for international laws (such as the joke that is 'Mavi Vatan'; google Capt. Andrew Norris' article on CIMSEC for more depth).
These neo-Ottoman ambitions are supported by pro-Turkish EU politicians and their strategy of appeasement against Turkish aggressiveness, within EU institutions; these same politicians turn a blind eye to all Turkish transgressions and hybrid war tactics, and continuously try to protect their selling of arms to Turkey, when said arms are then clearly used to threaten and attack EU member states. Erdogan has been employing a 'divide and conquer' strategy by threatening, befriending and bribing the bigger EU member states, so that they don't bat an eyelid when he bullies and threatens the smaller ones. He claims whatever he wants from neighbouring countries, he says it's his, and because no one is there to tell him 'no', he will ultimately proceed to take whatever he wants.
Erdogan has ensured that Turkey is now lost to the west, the same way Khomeini ensured Iran was lost in 1979, and western leaders should start evaluating the matter of Turkey for much further than their next elections. For years Erdogan and Putin have been playing an insidious and dangerous game that has had a huge cost on lives and democratic institutions, and they are currently sharing power and have grabbed land in 3 different countries. 20-30 years from now, historians will be wondering why the world was simply watching Turkey and Russia orchestrate wars in their neighbouring countries to break them apart, when the signs of a bigger conflict were clear as day.
Erdogan didn't exactly force and pry his way into this Islamic dictatorship and against all odds - the throne has always been there, a relic from the Ottoman days and Kemal's strongman persona. As Soner mentions in the book, Kemal was in power for 15 years, and Erdogan now has a tenure of 18 years. What Soner definitely doesn't mention, is that Kemal's reign and secular reforms now appear to be a parenthesis, a gap that seems completely alien to modern-day Turkey, and that is understated clearly by how easy it has been for Erdogan to cast aside most of Kemal's legacy. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions know no bounds and in a calculated manner infringe upon other countries' sovereign rights, without regard for international laws (such as the joke that is 'Mavi Vatan'; google Capt. Andrew Norris' article on CIMSEC for more depth).
These neo-Ottoman ambitions are supported by pro-Turkish EU politicians and their strategy of appeasement against Turkish aggressiveness, within EU institutions; these same politicians turn a blind eye to all Turkish transgressions and hybrid war tactics, and continuously try to protect their selling of arms to Turkey, when said arms are then clearly used to threaten and attack EU member states. Erdogan has been employing a 'divide and conquer' strategy by threatening, befriending and bribing the bigger EU member states, so that they don't bat an eyelid when he bullies and threatens the smaller ones. He claims whatever he wants from neighbouring countries, he says it's his, and because no one is there to tell him 'no', he will ultimately proceed to take whatever he wants.
Erdogan has ensured that Turkey is now lost to the west, the same way Khomeini ensured Iran was lost in 1979, and western leaders should start evaluating the matter of Turkey for much further than their next elections. For years Erdogan and Putin have been playing an insidious and dangerous game that has had a huge cost on lives and democratic institutions, and they are currently sharing power and have grabbed land in 3 different countries. 20-30 years from now, historians will be wondering why the world was simply watching Turkey and Russia orchestrate wars in their neighbouring countries to break them apart, when the signs of a bigger conflict were clear as day.
June 14, 2022
Don’t get me wrong,, I love Soner Çağaptay‘s writing on Turkish Politics, and as an English person living in Turkey, I have found his other books incredibly useful, fascinating, rational and unbiased (please read his other books, they are brilliant!). However, this latest book falls short on a few points. Firstly, it is not really a book at all, but more or a general pamphlet - at £10+ I was hoping for a full length book, but this is the sort of book you could read in an afternoon - not necessarily a problem, but the price tag does make it seem like more than it is. £3.20 and I’d be hiving a different review. On top of this, as someone who has read all of his other books on Erdoğan, I don’t think I learned one new piece of information from this pamphlet.
All that being said, however, if you have not read anything about Erdoğan, and want a quick, generalised summery of his political influence and position, this book is definitely a good place to start. However, don’t expect details or analysis from this offering, you’ll have to read Çağaptay’s other books for that!
All that being said, however, if you have not read anything about Erdoğan, and want a quick, generalised summery of his political influence and position, this book is definitely a good place to start. However, don’t expect details or analysis from this offering, you’ll have to read Çağaptay’s other books for that!
October 24, 2021
overview
This quick and easy read was great to get an overview of what is going on in Turkey, it’s relationship with other NATO countries and the US. I blasted through it in an afternoon and will be returning to it again for reference.
This quick and easy read was great to get an overview of what is going on in Turkey, it’s relationship with other NATO countries and the US. I blasted through it in an afternoon and will be returning to it again for reference.
Displaying 1 - 3 of 3 reviews