Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.
R. Saravanan is Professor and Head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University. He has been working as a climate scientist for more than thirty years. He built an open source simplified climate model from scratch and has worked with complex models that run on the world’s most powerful supercomputers.
Saravanan received his Ph. D. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from Princeton University and his M. Sc. in Physics from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. He carried out postdoctoral research at the University of Cambridge and subsequently worked at the National of Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. He recently helped create the TED-Ed animated short, “Is the weather actually becoming more extreme?”
P97: French biologist Louis Pasteur’s dictum: “in the fields of observation chance favours only the prepared mind.” Even the best models can not predict phenomena that we know nothing about, but they can help us be better prepared to deal with such phenomena.