An insightful look into the Afghanistan war and how three administrations misled the public. Whitlock depicts how Bush, Obama and Trump, lacked an essential understanding of the conflict leading to failed policies, often quite similar, and how the policy of disinformation manifested itself in all three. We get the private observations of key players from Whitlock’s unique set of sources which are the basis of the book. My notes follow.
Whitlock’s analysis relies on three primary sources. The first was interviews with soldiers and senior officials in a project called Lessons Learned conducted by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) to diagnose policy failures. The study used diplomatic cables, decision making memos and intelligence reports in addition to the interviews. After a three-year legal battle and suits filed by Whitlock’s newspaper, The Washington Post, in 2020 he got the 7,000-page study. In it many senior officials shared their private views that were the opposite of the official view at the time. Second were the “snowflakes”, memos dictated by Defense Secretary Rumsfeld containing instructions and comments. Totaling 59,000 pages, the snowflakes were obtained by another FOIA request. Third were the interviews of 600 soldiers, primarily junior officers, who served in Afghanistan conducted by the Army’s Operational Leadership Project. Whitlock also used interviews of soldiers from other organizations. We learn what government officials and soldiers actually believed about the war in their own words, which was very different from what the three administrations put out to the American people.
“I have no visibility into who the bad guys are in Afghanistan” Donald Rumsfeld told his intelligence chief two years after the war began. The first months of the war the clear enemy was al-Qaeda. al-Qaeda was quickly driven away. Who was the enemy then? The U.S. started attacking the Taliban, but they were indistinguishable from the local population. The U.S. turned to nation building, establishing a central government, an impossible task in a land always dominated by tribal leaders. A central government meant nothing to most Afghans. Michael Metrinko, head of the US embassy political section in 2002, said “Much of what we call Taliban activity was really tribal or it was rivalry or it was feuding. I had this explained to me over and over and over again by tribal elders.” What was the plan for post war occupation? What defined success? Bush wasn’t worried. He felt the war was won and he started thinking about Iraq. When Rumsfeld asked Bush if he wanted to meet General McNeil in October 2002, Bush asked “Who is General McNeil?” Rumsfeld told him he was the general in command of US forces in Afghanistan. Bush said, ”Well I don’t need to meet with him.”
On May 1, 2003 six weeks following the invasion of Iraq president Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln declaring “mission accomplished”. That same day Rumsfeld was in Kabul claiming ”The bulk of the country is permissive, it’s secure.” Privately Rumsfeld was not optimistic saying in a snowflake “…it will be a long hard slog.” Special forces officer Lt. Col. Mark Schmidt in Afghanistan in 2003 said “Quite frankly, we were just going around killing people. There was still plenty of fighting…We’d fly in, do a mission…fly out – and of course the Taliban would just flow right back in.” In September 2004 Bush said that the Taliban was “no longer in existence.”
Whitlock highlights interviews that showed training of Afghan soldiers and police was a mess. American trainers were ill prepared. They didn’t understand Afghan norms, culture and language. Trainees were often illiterate with no exposure to Western equipment and values which they often could not comprehend including ones essential to a modern army such as timeliness and discipline. Whitlock uses documents and interviews of US military and diplomatic officials to show the confusion they had about Pakistan’s role. Pakistani president Musharraf, raking in U.S. billions, played both sides allowing the Pakistani intelligence service (ISI) to help the Taliban while providing visible help to the Americans.
In 2006/7 the Taliban were coming back with tactics adopted from Iraq, suicide bombings and roadside bombs. Bush, Rumsfeld and generals towing the line engaged in a disinformation campaign saying the Taliban were losing citing whatever statistics they could make up to prove their point. But at the same time reports to their desks painted a bleak picture. Facing a dismal situation in Iraq, Bush did not want to admit Afghanistan was also rapidly deteriorating. The Army had sent retired General Barry McCaffrey to Afghanistan in May 2006 to review the situation. His report made it back to Rumsfeld noting that the war was “deteriorating”, the Taliban were “very aggressive and smart”, armed “with excellent weapons”, the Afghan army was “miserably under-resourced”, the Afghan police ”in a disastrous condition: badly equipped, corrupt, incompetent, poorly led and trained, riddled by drug use.”, “the Afghan national leadership are collectively terrified that we will tip-toe out…and the whole thing will again collapse into mayhem.” Rumsfeld’s trusted advisor Marin Strmecki sent Rumsfeld a report in August 2006 after visiting Afghanistan corroborating McCaffrey’s dark picture noting ”It is not that the enemy is so strong but that the Afghan government is so weak.” Also in August US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ronald Neumann sent a cable stating bluntly “We are not winning in Afghanistan”. Two weeks later three-star General Karl Eikenberry said on ABC News “We are winning [in Afghanistan]”. That fall Rumsfeld issued talking points “Afghanistan: Five Years Later.” Stating that “Five years on, there is a multitude of good news.” On January 9, 2007 Afghan forces training commander Major General Robert Durban said “We are prevailing”. On January 29, 2007 10th Mountain Division commander Major General Benjamin Freakley said “We’re winning.” and making “great progress” and “defeated the Taliban…at every turn.” All in contradiction to what was well known to military and civilian officials.
In May 2006 British General David Richards took command of the 35,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan. The coalition could not agree on a strategy. In later interviews Richards said “There was no coherent long-term strategy…but instead we got a lot of tactics.” Robert Gates replaced Rumsfeld in December 2006. He advised Bush to forget nation building, narrow his mission in Afghanistan and focus on Iraq. Bush was focused almost entirely on Iraq, but still doubled down on Afghanistan stating in February 2007 he would turn Afghanistan into “a stable, moderate, democratic state that respects the rights of its citizens.” Adding “We’ve made real progress.” In 2007 US General Dan McNeil replaced General Richards. In a later interview he said ”In 2007, there was no NATO campaign plan, a lot of verbiage and talk, but no plan.” In the spring of 2007 Bush made General Douglas Lute the White House “war czar”. In a later interview Lute said “We were devoid of a fundamental understanding of Afghanistan – We didn’t know what we were doing.” In February 2008 Bush said “The Taliban, al-Qaeda and their allies are on the run.” But privately he was very worried.
In 2009 Barack Obama became president. He kept Bob Gates at Defense and announced he would leave Iraq and focus on Afghanistan. The current Afghan commander General David McKiernan in May publicly called the war “stalemated” and “a very tough fight”, an unforgivable case of honesty. He was quickly replaced by General Stanley McChrystal who specialized in counterinsurgency tactics. Obama added 30,000 troops and McChrystal tried to repeat his Iraq playbook. Through the whole history of the war the mistake of thinking that what worked in Iraq would work in Afghanistan was made time and again and this time was no different. Many Afghans preferred the Taliban to their other options unlike in Iraq where Sunnis were frightened by the emergence of ISIS leading to their cooperation. In 2010 McChrystal mocked Obama in a Rolling Stone interview and was replaced by his mentor General David Petraeus who embraced the same strategy.
In December 2009 Obama announced raising the US troop total in Afghanistan to 100,000, a threefold increase since taking office. He would allocate $17 billion to reconstruction in 2010. The money largely went into the pockets of corrupt officials with the remainder building mostly useless projects. A school built where farmers required their children to herd goats went unused. In other cases, there were no teachers available. The Taliban converted some to bomb factories. Whitlock lists many more examples. A good slice of the money ended up in the hands of the Taliban who had their members embedded in the right places to get it. Afghan police were corrupt from top to bottom. The commanders stole funds intended to fund their force and the lowest tier simply took it from ordinary people. It was a grand protection racket. Afghan army commanders profited by inflating the number of troops they had to meet quotas then took the money intended for the missing soldiers. Afghan bank administrators ran their banks as a Ponzi scheme and eventually they went bust. The Karzai family and top officials ran the country as a kleptocracy. Whitlock references recordings and documents to show that US civilian and military leaders were well aware of the massive corruption but chose to do nothing about it because it was too massive to bring under control and exposing it would have completely disrupted the war effort.
The disinformation under the Obama administration was just as bad as it had been in the Bush administration. After the killing of bin Laden the rhetoric was particularly elevated. In June 2011 Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a TV interview ”We’ve made a lot of progress…From a strategy standpoint it really appears to have worked as we hoped.” In March 2012 US and NATO commander in Afghanistan General John Allen said to the Senate Armed Services Committee “The progress is real and, importantly, its sustainable…We have severely degraded the insurgency.” His successor General Joseph Dunford, Jr. said in Kabul in 2013 ”I firmly believe we are on a path to win.” General Michael Flynn (whatever you think of him), who was intelligence chief in Afghanistan, later noted “…they all said when they left they accomplished that mission. Every single commander. Not one commander is going to leave Afghanistan…and say ‘You know what, we didn’t accomplish our mission.’” Like General Flynn, US intelligence agencies did not buy in to the “progress” being made. Defense Intelligence Agency director General Ronald Burgess said to the Senate Armed Services Committee in February 2012 that the Afghan government was consumed by “endemic corruption”, the army and police suffered from “persistent qualitative deficiencies”, the Taliban were “resilient” and “confident of eventual victory.” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper explained in the same hearing why military commanders were so optimistic and intelligence agencies so pessimistic. He said “I served as an analyst briefer for General Westmoreland in Vietnam in 1966. I kinda lost my professional innocence…when I found out that operational commanders sometimes don’t agree with [intelligence officials about] their view of success of their campaign.” I think that comparison to Vietnam puts in a nutshell what we can understand about the quality of information the public was getting.
December 2014 marked what Obama called a “milestone for our country”. Obama declared the end of the “combat mission” in Afghanistan seemingly fulfilling his promise to end the war, but in reality, nothing had changed. It was just posturing. U.S. troops in Afghanistan had been reduced to under 11,000. These were still allowed to engage in “counter terrorism operations” and engage al-Qaeda and “associated forces” and aid Afghan forces. Aircraft still bombed and launched missiles on a regular basis. Obama promised to bring home the remaining troops by the end of his term but 8,400 remained when he left office in 2017. ISIS fighters in Afghanistan had complicated things, but even without them there was no way for U.S. troops to leave Afghanistan without a resulting debacle.
Trump took over in 2017. He had campaigned that “Afghanistan is a complete waste. Time to come home.” But in his first speech as president addressing Afghanistan on January 21, he said ”We will fight to win. From now on, victory will have a clear definition.” However, his policies pretty much mimicked those of the past two administrations. What differed was his arrogant, dismissive style. In a special briefing on Afghanistan with the Joint Chiefs set up by his defense secretary General James Mattis, Trump ended up telling the generals “You’re a bunch of dopes and babies.” Attendees Mattis, General Dunford, and White House national security adviser General H.R. McMaster were dumbfounded. All had extensive service in Afghanistan and irrespective of public remarks, had a pretty good understanding of the situation. But they learned how to push Trump’s buttons by touting their recommended policies as not like Obama’s. The generals learned that to influence Trump they had to emulate Trump’s style, talk about winning and claim Trump’s policies were different. But they weren’t. Trump increased the number of troops, took restrictions off their engagements and dramatically increased bombing. It made no difference. The Taliban continued to gain ground. As Trump’s term ended, he reduced the number of troops just like Obama and like Obama and Bush, he neither won the war nor left Afghanistan.
Biden took over in 2021 and he did leave Afghanistan. He had visited Afghanistan as a Senator in 2002 and followed it closely as Obama’s Vice President. He had advised Obama against the surge and counterinsurgency strategy, both of which had failed. He was and remained skeptical of what the U.S. could accomplish in Afghanistan. On April 14 Biden announced his decision for U.S. forces to leave Afghanistan by September 11, twenty years after America was attacked. Biden said “So when will it be the right time to leave? One more year, two more years, ten more years? What conditions must be met to depart? I’m not hearing any good answers to those questions. And if you can’t answer them, in my view, we should not stay.”