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After Brexit: The Economics of Scottish Independence
Pressure for independence remains a major force in Scotland, but the case for it has changed substantially since the referendum of 2014. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 60 per cent of the Scottish electorate voted to remain part of the European Union– the only part of the UK to reject Brexit so unequivocally.
This new analysis takes into account a host of economic issues including deficit, debt, currency, energy (including North Sea oil and gas), pensions, mortgages and the financial sector. It weighs up the advantages of rejoining the EU single market, either as a full EU member or as a member of the EEA, with the disadvantages of a hard border with the rest of the UK.
Independence would create opportunities, but it would also bring many thorny problems which the Scottish government, and the Scottish people, would have to face.
This new analysis takes into account a host of economic issues including deficit, debt, currency, energy (including North Sea oil and gas), pensions, mortgages and the financial sector. It weighs up the advantages of rejoining the EU single market, either as a full EU member or as a member of the EEA, with the disadvantages of a hard border with the rest of the UK.
Independence would create opportunities, but it would also bring many thorny problems which the Scottish government, and the Scottish people, would have to face.
208 pages, Mass Market Paperback
Published May 3, 2022
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
March 9, 2022
Given the current international situation, it seems strange to read a book on the implications of Scottish independence, but as long as the present war doesn’t escalate into a world-wide conflict, then there will probably be another referendum on independence in the next 5-10 years. I want to try to understand the ramifications.
The author is a moderately well-known figure in Scottish public life, who is now almost 90 years of age. His mind is clearly as sharp as ever though. This is an extremely well-written book, with complex economic matters presented in a way that makes them accessible to the layman. McCrone covers both high-level strategic economic issues and the question of what independence might mean for ordinary people who are paying mortgages or living off pensions. Unionists will take more arguments from this book than nationalists will, but I would still recommend it to moderate nationalists, even if only to get people thinking about the issues that would need to be confronted by the government of an independent Scotland, and what policies that government should adopt. There’s a daunting list of problems!
Most of the issues considered will only be of interest to a Scottish readership, so I won’t comment on them in detail. McCrone does however consider the future relationship between an independent Scotland and both the remainder UK and the EU, which might be of more interest to my GR Friends in Europe and the rest of the UK. He thinks Brexit was a bad idea but acknowledges it has significant implications for an independent Scotland.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) have said that an independent Scotland would apply to join the EU. Under current circumstances that would unavoidably mean a customs border between Scotland and England, something which has not existed since 1707. At present 60% of Scottish trade is carried out with the rest of the UK. There is also a possibility of passport checks at the border. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that a desire to control immigration from the EU was a major factor in the Brexit vote, so the UK government would likely not tolerate a situation where Scotland could be used as a backdoor means of entry for immigrants trying to get to the UK.
The above forms part of McCrone’s next argument, which is that an independent Scotland would be better off as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) rather than a full member of the EU. Members of the EEA are part of the European Single Market and have to conform to relevant EU regulations, but they are also free to agree their own bilateral trading arrangements with non-EU countries. McCrone argues therefore that such an arrangement would allow Scotland to join the Single Market whilst avoiding the worst economic effects of a customs barrier with the remainder UK. The obvious downside of the EEA is that non-EU members are “rule-takers” without having any ability to influence decisions taken in the EU, but McCrone argues, with some justification I think, that if Scotland were an EU country it would be a small state amongst 27 other members, with very limited ability to genuinely influence EU decisions.
EEA members do not have to adopt the Euro, and McCrone definitely thinks the Euro would be a bad idea for Scotland. He also feels that the SNP’s policy of using Sterling would, sooner or later, lead to considerable economic distress in Scotland, and advocates Scotland adopting its own currency. That would come with its own issues, but it coincides with the view I held before reading the book.
There was one area where I might disagree with the author, about how long it would take Scotland to join the EU, but overall I thought this book was excellent. It’s remarkable how McCrone has summed up the issues so clearly and concisely.
The author is a moderately well-known figure in Scottish public life, who is now almost 90 years of age. His mind is clearly as sharp as ever though. This is an extremely well-written book, with complex economic matters presented in a way that makes them accessible to the layman. McCrone covers both high-level strategic economic issues and the question of what independence might mean for ordinary people who are paying mortgages or living off pensions. Unionists will take more arguments from this book than nationalists will, but I would still recommend it to moderate nationalists, even if only to get people thinking about the issues that would need to be confronted by the government of an independent Scotland, and what policies that government should adopt. There’s a daunting list of problems!
Most of the issues considered will only be of interest to a Scottish readership, so I won’t comment on them in detail. McCrone does however consider the future relationship between an independent Scotland and both the remainder UK and the EU, which might be of more interest to my GR Friends in Europe and the rest of the UK. He thinks Brexit was a bad idea but acknowledges it has significant implications for an independent Scotland.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) have said that an independent Scotland would apply to join the EU. Under current circumstances that would unavoidably mean a customs border between Scotland and England, something which has not existed since 1707. At present 60% of Scottish trade is carried out with the rest of the UK. There is also a possibility of passport checks at the border. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that a desire to control immigration from the EU was a major factor in the Brexit vote, so the UK government would likely not tolerate a situation where Scotland could be used as a backdoor means of entry for immigrants trying to get to the UK.
The above forms part of McCrone’s next argument, which is that an independent Scotland would be better off as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) rather than a full member of the EU. Members of the EEA are part of the European Single Market and have to conform to relevant EU regulations, but they are also free to agree their own bilateral trading arrangements with non-EU countries. McCrone argues therefore that such an arrangement would allow Scotland to join the Single Market whilst avoiding the worst economic effects of a customs barrier with the remainder UK. The obvious downside of the EEA is that non-EU members are “rule-takers” without having any ability to influence decisions taken in the EU, but McCrone argues, with some justification I think, that if Scotland were an EU country it would be a small state amongst 27 other members, with very limited ability to genuinely influence EU decisions.
EEA members do not have to adopt the Euro, and McCrone definitely thinks the Euro would be a bad idea for Scotland. He also feels that the SNP’s policy of using Sterling would, sooner or later, lead to considerable economic distress in Scotland, and advocates Scotland adopting its own currency. That would come with its own issues, but it coincides with the view I held before reading the book.
There was one area where I might disagree with the author, about how long it would take Scotland to join the EU, but overall I thought this book was excellent. It’s remarkable how McCrone has summed up the issues so clearly and concisely.
December 2, 2022
A very interesting ,and thought provoking, analysis of the various issues which would face Scotland in the event of voting to become independent. Naturally, Brexit has in many respects affected the narrative and McCrone writes his account with regard to this. To those considering the pros and cons of independence, particularly, from an economic perspective I recommend this book.
February 21, 2022
This is a must read for anyone interested in the future of Scotland and the likely consequences of independence. It is rare to get an objective view on the realities of independence and a deep insight into the many economic challenges that an independent Scotland would be presented with.
July 7, 2022
A sequel of sorts to Gavin McCrone's original book on the economics of independence prior to the 2014 referendum.
McCrone states that a second book was required because of the implications of Brexit and the democratic deficit that was shown by the different results between Scotland and the rest of the UK in terms of leaving the EU.
He also states quite forthrightly that this means a second independence referendum is justified, both morally and in terms of common sense, as a refusal by the UK government would cause resentment and fuel national resentment.
This follow up seemed much heavier on the minutiae and details of economics than its predecessor, which now serves as an excellent grounding for me and understanding the ideas in the book.
McCrone is neutral throughout but seems much less positive about the outcomes associated with independence, focusing on the major upheaval it would cause and the liklihood that the early years would see a drop in living standards and a rise in inflation.
He does, however, make the case that the longer term future could be much brighter as a small independent country providing the Scottish government follow an intelligent economic path. He places significant emphasis on joining EFTA and then the EEA rather than outright return to the EU, and creating a new currency and pegging it to the pound rather than joining the Euro.
He offers no real conclusion, rather lying out the economic implications, and while he definitely seems concerned about the implications in the short term, he doesn't rule that Scottish independence would work out in the medium to long term, warning that Ireland took 30 years, from 1922 to the 1950s, to forge a strong path. It now has a higher GDP than the UK.
McCrone states that a second book was required because of the implications of Brexit and the democratic deficit that was shown by the different results between Scotland and the rest of the UK in terms of leaving the EU.
He also states quite forthrightly that this means a second independence referendum is justified, both morally and in terms of common sense, as a refusal by the UK government would cause resentment and fuel national resentment.
This follow up seemed much heavier on the minutiae and details of economics than its predecessor, which now serves as an excellent grounding for me and understanding the ideas in the book.
McCrone is neutral throughout but seems much less positive about the outcomes associated with independence, focusing on the major upheaval it would cause and the liklihood that the early years would see a drop in living standards and a rise in inflation.
He does, however, make the case that the longer term future could be much brighter as a small independent country providing the Scottish government follow an intelligent economic path. He places significant emphasis on joining EFTA and then the EEA rather than outright return to the EU, and creating a new currency and pegging it to the pound rather than joining the Euro.
He offers no real conclusion, rather lying out the economic implications, and while he definitely seems concerned about the implications in the short term, he doesn't rule that Scottish independence would work out in the medium to long term, warning that Ireland took 30 years, from 1922 to the 1950s, to forge a strong path. It now has a higher GDP than the UK.
October 27, 2022
Now I understand! A vital read.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews