Contagion: The Financial Epidemic That is Sweeping the Global Economy... and How to Protect Yourself from It

by John R. Talbott

Bestselling author John Talbott outlines the troublesome economic times ahead and what can be done about them Tough times are here, and author John Talbott-who accurately predicted the dot.com technology stock collapse as well as the recent housing, mortgage, and financial crises-argues that the coming global recession will be unlike anything we've ever seen. In Contagion, Talbott turns his attention to this crisis and offers insights on what can be done to navigate such treacherous terrain. Talbott sets the stage by discussing how government borrowing and spending on the war, healthcare, Social Security, and corporate giveaways combined with dramatic increases in personal spending, fueled by credit card and mortgage debt, have funded unsustainable levels of personal and government consumption.

Genres: Nonfiction

272 pages, Hardcover

First published December 31, 2008

About the author

John Talbott is an economic consultant who has authored academic papers on economic growth and development and made presentations on the subject to the governments of Russia, Jordan, and Qatar. A visiting scholar at the Anderson School at UCLA, Talbott is also a former vice president in the investment banking division of Goldman, Sachs, and Company.

Reviews

[William Lawrence · Rating 4 out of 5]

Talbott was entirely on target with the financial crisis of 2008-09. I'd like to read some of his newer books like Survival Investing and Obamanomics: How Bottom-Up Economic Prosperity Will Replace Trickle-Down Economics. Contagion is a great historical record of what President Obama was faced with as he entered office and the systematic problems that still exist in 2017. Talbott explains, "The current corrupt model of government in the United States is not one that encourages a healthy economy. Free markets are great for creating wealth, but without regulation and the rule of law there can be no free markets" (2009, p. 164).

[Marcus · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is a MUST READ if you want a clear unbiased view of what is happening to the US Economy. John Talbott wrote a book called THE COMING CRASH IN THE HOUSING MARKET in 2003!!! I read it at the time and he correctly predicted the current mess including the failure of Fannie Mae. Mr. Talbott employed a concept called Diversity of thought to come to right conclusion, he is not an economist and did not bring that baggage to the problem. Mr. Talbott was previously a Private Equity investor at Goldman Sachs he talked about how much debt they could use when buying a company and when the deals failed and when they worked. He then applies this to the housing market and correctly determined that people were taking on more than they could hope to repay. His new book explains how this crisis was caused: "How is it that REAL ESTATE agents could collude with independent APPRAISERS, that MORTGAGE BROKERS could fraudulently doctor mortgage applications, that COMMERCIAL BANKS could lie about the quality of their products, that RATING AGENCIES could reinforce these lies and that all of this occurred without some government invtervention or supervision?" ....."The real reason why this disaster happened was that the US government has been co-opted by lobbyist of the above organizations, they were paid to look the other way! Book goes on to describe how this mess will likely unfold. Essential reading to protect yourself and your family and to understand what our elected officials have been up to. In a nutshell, no short term recovery in sight. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Stop relying on the news for information, THEY HAVE BEEN WRONG!! Pick up a copy today and get informed.

[Justin · Rating 4 out of 5]

There was more actionable advice here than in other similar books, but still not too much.

[Tom S · Rating 3 out of 5]

The author clearly has incredible knowledge on recession caused by the the over-leveraged and debt-fuelled banking crises the world is currently experiencing. The first 2/3 of the book is genuinely interesting, detailing the US housing boom, how it started and why it grew to such highs.

There is decent coverage on the macroeconomic effects of the fallout, including how banks, governments and individuals are all affected in different ways when the true value of losses were accounted for. You'll also find decent details into how the true debts are significantly above reported values due to financial instruments such as CDS markets and off balance sheet debts making financial institutions hugely over leveraged to the point of instability.

What really lets this book down is the constant reference to blaming it all on the baby boomers, individual greed and government being in bed with big business and lobbies. The last 40 or so pages are essentially the same points on repeat. I could not bring myself to finish the book.

[E · Rating 5 out of 5]

Frightening financial assessment

John R. Talbott is a prescient, provocative financial writer. In this book, he points the finger at those he sees as the real culprits behind the global financial collapse. He relates the U.S. real estate market slump to the broader economic deterioration in American fundamentals. He forecasts a long, hard road to recovery, one that is so difficult, he says, that the U.S. may choose not to take it. That, of course, would be a disastrous decision, but he pessimistically posits that it would be in keeping with the self-centered baby boom generation. In addition to diagnosing a nearly terminal disease of corruption in the American system, Talbott makes some recommendations for investment strategies that getAbstract finds may help individuals cope with challenging times.

[Linda · Rating 2 out of 5]

This author is supposed to know what he is talking about, but what I take away from it is that baby-boomers are selfish and have ruined the world. Our houses are too big, we use too much stuff, and we have vacation homes, I just wonder where this author lives and how he has spent the money he has made selling all his books.
He was an investment banker so I guess all his friends probably are responsible for the economic mess.

[Desiree · Rating 5 out of 5]

A defintely sobering look at the mess the United States has created, not only for ourselves, but for the rest of the world. The author believes this crisis is even bigger than the United States! We have already spent trillions of dollars trying to clean up the mess, but how much more will be needed? Cash is king right now. He advises buying into the Chinese stock market at these levels.

Would recommend this to anyone concerned about the coming ramifications of this epidemic!