I've been curious about Russia since my early teens, and current events gives impetus to take a close look at modern developments. There are many excellent books about Russia by American and European historians, but I thought it was time to get a Russian perspective (albeit, by someone presently at the LSE).
VZs Collapse focusses on a narrow snippet of Russian/Soviet history: the few years leading up to the moment when the USSR went out of existence. The story filled in some gaps, confirming some suspicions, moderated some generally accepted notions of what happened, and contained some surprises.
The first surprise was the amount of detail publicly available. I'd seen this before with S Kotkin. Events are recorded meticulously. Often, multiple accounts are provided, showing the different interpretations each participant gave to them.
Another surprise was the extent to which practically all the Soviet participants eagerly threw themselves into the hands of the Americans.
It's an odd relationship between the Americans and the Soviets. Each goes to great lengths to threaten the other with the most horrible fate. But as soon as the Soviets/Russians get themselves into some difficulty - which happens at intervals of about 50 years - they come running to the Americans for help. And what do the Americans do? They drop everything to respond. A strange rivalry. Americans and Russians stood side by side through great crises. But there are hardly any instances of Americans or Russians directly causing each other fatalities.
The US president, George Bush, was an essential off stage actor throughout the unwinding of the USSR. The participants turned to him for financial support, intellectual guidance (how to set up a capitalist economy and banking system, how to govern a democracy) and - most of all - for moral support. Gorbatschow would turn to Bush for encouragement when he ran into a setback. Yeltsin would call for advice on how to overcome resistance to his programmes. Whenever any Soviet leader experienced a success, he would rush to call President Bush. At times, the president comes across as the father of a group of squabbling children competing to win his approval. All while the USA and USSR were threatening each other with instant annihilation.
I have always admired Bush (pere) and this account strengthened that conviction. The president did a terrific job of guiding without interfering. The situation presented opportunities, but also a great many dangers, to the USA, to the USSR states and to the world. There were enormous numbers of nuclear weapons, the control of which came into question. The breakup of the USSR raised perplexing questions about borders, and the distribution of assets and liabilities. Strongly nationalistic tendencies emerged with populist leaders agitating for settling scores. Minority populations in newly formed nations suddenly fell under threat.
Some of the new leaders showed an astonishing level of naivety about basic economics and foreign policy. President Bush, from the sidelines, raised the right issues to the right people at the right moment, almost always steering matters in a safe direction. The seeds of today's conflict between Ukraine and Russia are clearly visible and would have been much worse and ignited much sooner, without Bush's guidance.
The US president was often surprised by the extent of his influence. There were moments where he prepared to cautiously approach a Soviet leader with a request, only to be pre-empted by that leader anticipating his intention, spontaneously offering a larger concession.
Different views were held by Bush's advisors, with Secretary of Defence Cheney consistently argued that for crippling the USSR - advice which the president didn't follow. It was interesting to see how much Bush's decision were made on the basis of the personal affection he felt for individual leaders.
In the context of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, Jeffery Sachs makes the point that Gorbachow was given assurances that NATO would not move one inch to the east. This assurance was given as a condition for USSR agreeing to German reunification. As we know, NATO has expanded many times eastward and the threat of inclusion of Ukraine is often cited as the percipitant cause of the war.
In my opinion, Sachs is right about the cause of the war. The claim that Putin is intent is to reestablish the Soviet Union overlooks a lot of evidence. VZ throws an interesting light on the matter. First by reiterating assurance to Gorbatschow about NATO enlargement, but also adding that on two occasions Gorbatschow suggested (once directly, once through Foreign Minister Pankin) that central European countries should be able to decide for themselves whichever alliance structure they wish to belong to. Gorbatschow expressed this view spontaneously, that is to say, not in response to any prompting or pressure from third parties.
VZ also indirectly addressed Sachs' complaint that western nations failed to provide anything like the same level of financial support new nations of the USSR that were offered to Poland and other CEE countries. VZ pointed out that the Russian request lacked a coherent implementation plan. Similarly, an early Russian interest for inclusion into NATO was met with skepticism, largely because Russia was regarded as too large and too complex to be accommodated.
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After some reflection I realise that I made this book sound as if it was about George Bush. That is mistaken. Bush is a supporting character in this story, just as he was in real life. VZ's real protagonist is Mikhail Gorbachov. But who was he? First, let me say who he was not. MG was not a politician, and certainly not a politician of the Soviet imprimatur. MG was an intellectual, more interested in ideas than he was in leading. As General Secretary, MG was outfitted with unlimited power, but it was deeply against his conviction to use it. Most of all, he hated the idea of using violence in pursuit of political ends.
MG tended to dither, especially at moments when rapid action was needed. Deep down, the man I am describing was a university professor.
MG could be very stubborn. He persisted with his intention to turn the USSR into a democratic socialist country long after it was clear that this wasn't ever going to happen. MG could also be cagey and resourceful. He had enormous resilience and self confidence, and this allowed him to bounce back from defeat after defeat, but without ever getting close to achieving his end.