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On Borrowed Time: North America's Next Big Quake

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Finalist, 2021 Balsillie Prize for Public PolicyThe Big One and what we can do to get ready for it.

Mention the word earthquake and most people think of California. But while the Golden State shakes on a regular basis, Washington State, Oregon, and British Columbia are located in a zone that can produce the world’s biggest earthquakes and tsunamis. In the eastern part of the continent, small cities and large, from Ottawa to Montréal to New York City, sit in active earthquake zones. In fact, more than 100-million North Americans live in active seismic zones, many of whom do not realize the risk to their community.

For more than a decade, Gregor Craigie interviewed scientists, engineers, and emergency planners about earthquakes, disaster response, and resilience. He has also collected vivid first-hand accounts from people who have survived deadly earthquakes. His fascinating and deeply researched book dives headfirst into explaining the science behind The Big One — and asks what we can do now to prepare ourselves for events geologists say aren't a matter of if, but when.

236 pages, Kindle Edition

Published September 28, 2021

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Gregor Craigie

8 books16 followers

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Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews
Profile Image for Julie.
1,092 reviews1 follower
December 28, 2021
Written in an engaging way, interspersing personal accounts with facts and scientific research, Craigie makes the threat of earthquakes feel immediate and … something we should definitely pay attention to. I have done reading about earthquakes before, not long after moving to Victoria when I realized that I knew next to nothing about them. This book would have made an excellent addition to my education. I like how it covers coast to coast, with references to other big quakes around the world, and also discusses tsunamis and volcanoes. Very interesting, and I learned a ton!

I do admit that I didn’t have much interest in the masonry of buildings, and one thing I would have appreciated with this book would be some pictures, and maybe more maps. That would have helped complement some of the descriptions. But overall, a fascinating, informative read, and I recommend it for anyone interested in the topic.

Now I’m off to restock my emergency rations!
Profile Image for zunggg.
549 reviews
March 9, 2025
The best parts of the book — the only really engaging parts — are the primary source accounts of historical temblors. The chapter on prediction is quite interesting. And I didn't know about the 1886 Charlotte quake or the 1929 Burin peninsula tsunami. But for the most part this is dry and workaday stuff. Each case study — Cascadia, Missouri, Quebec, Utah, etc. — boils down to the same recitation of building codes and retrofitting scenarios. This repetitiveness and the absence of any overarching narrative gives the book the air of a public safety advertisement. Kathryn Schulz's 2015 New Yorker piece is an example of how to do it well.

Also, for a book about North American earthquakes, it's quite odd that there's a whole chapter about volcanoes yet only the briefest mention in passing of Mexico, the most quake-prone part of North America.
Profile Image for Ramon Stoppelenburg.
Author 1 book3 followers
April 6, 2024
Did that recent earthquake in New York make you think "huh"? Yes, they happen there and I recently read so much and way more about this all in Gregor Craigie's non-fiction book "On Borrowed Time: North America's Next Big Quake". Highly recommended reading if you wish to survive.

Canadian journalist Gregor Craigie has spent over a decade interviewing scientists, engineers, and emergency planners, gathering firsthand accounts from earthquake survivors. His meticulously researched book delves into the science behind seismic events like The Big One, urging proactive preparation for inevitable occurrences, as warned by geologists.
Profile Image for Marie Barr.
528 reviews21 followers
March 5, 2022
Interesting look at how prepared North America is for the next big quake. Really liked the map that shows areas of concern. We all need to be more prepared in case a disaster happens. Loved this book from a Canadian author.

4.5 rounded up.
9 reviews1 follower
March 16, 2022
well worth the read

Gregor Craigie has done a marvelous job of distilling and explaining scientific and engineering information for the lay reader. Reminds me it’s time to upgrade my emergency kit!
Profile Image for Liz Rachel Walker.
39 reviews3 followers
June 5, 2023
An excellent read and impressively researched. On Borrowed Time has a great balance of interesting history, useful scientific information, and compelling personal stories. I'm inspired to update my earthquake kit and to better prepare my home.
854 reviews
April 27, 2023
Excellent book about earthquakes, past, present and future risks. Very readable.
Profile Image for Joyce.
435 reviews55 followers
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December 21, 2022
I enjoyed this book, which deals with most of the large earthquakes and a few volcanic eruptions in North America during the last couple centuries. However I have to admit that most of the good stuff is in the first section of the book, which covers Pacific Rim earthquakes. I learned that until the 1970's geologists did not even agree that Seattle was earthquake-prone!!!

The later sections of the book cover the midwest and then the Atlantic coast, and they are not as exciting because earthquakes in those areas are rare although they have the potential to be devastating. By the end of the book I was feeling kind of full of dread, because it was so clear that outside the Pacific coast of North America there is no political will to ameliorate earthquakes that may never come.

The author is Canadian, and his book has a lot of Canadian virtues: not US-centric (although I would have loved to read more about Mexican earthquakes), well-researched, and not sensationalistic. That is NOT a way of saying it's boring, because I found it a very easy and captivating read.
Profile Image for Jane.
598 reviews
May 9, 2024
A really interesting book on earthquakes in North America. Well researched and written making me realize we all need to get ready for the next big one.
201 reviews4 followers
February 19, 2025
Excellent wakeup call for all those living in earthquake/tsunami/landslide risk zones in Canada and mainland USA. Although California and Alaska (and many parts of North America south of the USA not mentioned in the book) have long been aware of earthquake risk, the Pacific northwest coast in between only recently learned that there is a major risk that the very large earthquake and resulting tsunami off the coast in 1700 could repeat itself at any time. Such an earthquake could level any unreinforced masonry building or other buildings on alluvial soil, and bring down bridges (including highway overpasses) not built to adequate seismic standards. The tsunami could wipe out coastal communities built on low ground, and the people in them unless they are able to evacuate to high enough ground in 15-30 minutes. This is not a counsel of despair - warning systems have improved to the point you can receive a tsunami warning before you feel the earthquake; we know how to build earthquake resistant structures, and governments have started upgrading bridges, schools and hospitals to modern standards along the west coast. However you cannot evacuate if buildings collapse on you or collapsed buildings block your evacuation. Unfortunately, it seems politically difficult for governments to force private buildings to be made safe, especially where there is inadequate affordable housing. Unaffordable property insurance should be an indication that you should upgrade or move, but some jurisdictions block those price signals through insurance regulation and lack of requirement that property insurance should cover all disaster costs.
East of the west coast is another story, despite a history of major earthquakes/landslides on the Wasatch front in Utah, the central Mississippi/Ohio valley, Charleston NC, NYC, the Ottawa/St Lawrence valley from Ottawa to the Saguenay, and of a devastating tsunami resulting from an earthquake-triggered slump in the edge of the continental slope south of Newfoundland in 1929. The low frequency of most of these events in any one region, and the perception that there are more important/imminent risks to attend to (floods, tornados, hurricanes, wildfires, and ice storms) has resulted in little action east of Utah.
And then there are all the other facets of emergency preparedness to consider (rising sea levels, increasingly powerful storms, rising average temperatures...)
Profile Image for Sharon.
974 reviews
December 1, 2021
Not sure how this book landed on my radar, but it was a look at the history of earthquakes in North America and how likely various locales are to experience one in the future. It explored both the difficulties of predicting earthquakes and of convincing governments to do the work to withstand one. Very interesting.
Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews

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