2034全面開戰

by Elliot Ackerman, 艾略特·阿克曼, James G. Stavridis

　　南海開戰、中共攻台、AI駭客一秒癱瘓美國、俄國伊朗印度混戰……
　　這根本不是小說，
　　而是「新型態戰爭」實況上演！

　　南海，2034/3/12，14:58（格林威治時間+8）
　　美軍阿利．伯克級艦隊巡邏時，發現一艘中國漁船失火，不僅未發出求救訊號，還抵死抗拒救援…

　　伊朗，2034/3/12，13:47（格林威治時間+4:30）
　　美軍F-35戰機飛行員潛入伊朗領空，飛機卻自行偏離航道，即使關掉自動駕駛也沒用，油門、方向舵都失靈，就連彈射椅也失控了…

　　這天結束時，伯克級艦隊遭中國擊沉，F-35飛行員遭伊朗俘虜，美國白宮所有通訊全遭竊聽。中國動用「新型態」科技武器的挑釁舉動，原本有機會和平解決，然而…美中兩國做出了致命誤判，狡猾的俄國和伊朗想趁亂撈點好處，印度則被迫參與戰爭，向來被當作棋子的台灣，會成為棄子嗎？

　　本書是美軍將領根據真實兵棋推演情報所寫，作者期待這部作品能成為第三次世界大戰的「疫苗之書」，警醒世人思考：這是我們要的未來嗎？

Genres: Fiction, War, Military Fiction, Science Fiction, Thriller, China, Politics

288 pages, Kindle Edition

First published March 9, 2021

About the author

ELLIOT ACKERMAN is the New York Times bestselling author of the novels Halcyon, 2034, Red Dress In Black and White, Waiting for Eden, Dark at the Crossing, and Green on Blue, as well as the memoir The Fifth Act: America’s End in Afghanistan, and Places and Names: On War, Revolution and Returning. His books have been nominated for the National Book Award, the Andrew Carnegie Medal in both fiction and nonfiction, and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize among others. He is a contributing writer at The Atlantic and Marine veteran who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, where he received the Silver Star, the Bronze Star for Valor, and the Purple Heart. He divides his time between New York City and Washington, D.C.

Reviews

[Yang Ji · Rating 2 out of 5]

(Update: *I have somewhat changed my mind on the book, rating this book from 1star to 2stars after watching an interview to see where the authors were coming from in writing this book. They write the book to serve a cautionary tale (not as a "techno military thriller") to warn us about a confrontation between nuclear countries could quickly go out of control. But you still WILL get bogged down by the technical aspects of the "wars" which did not make sense at all. So still poorly written my criticism still stands 😛 But I do wish they had spend more time in refining the writings and the storyline.
Interview of the authors:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMqKb...
2020/3/26)

Short review:
Unrealistic, illogical, not well-researched, lack of interconnectedness between characters and too much loose ends. And the plot felt apart after chapter 4.
The author really hit the triple threats in writing a novel:
Paper thin characters, plot that does not make sense, No clear message to communicate with readers.
To be fair there were some attempts to communicate with the readers through the narration of what happen to two of the main characters in the end, but characters development were so poor, I found it very difficult to emotionally relate to them.
And there were at best 20pages out of 300 or some pages of actual "wars" to make up the shortfall, which is what people actually paid to read.

Long reviews:
*trigger warning, some people may be offended, don't be a snowflake, just a book review. take it easy.

Prologue:
As a Sci-fi and military fan the topic of really hit the peak of my interest. I had never had such high expectation for any book of fiction. I was a little bit disappointed at Chapter 5 because the plots were falling apart, but I was still naively hoping for the author to turn it around and it turns out to be the biggest disappointment in all of my readings. This is why I am so critical of the book.

My opinion on the authors:
Both authors have Zero understanding of Chinese political culture, nuclear posture and strategic thinking. I'll bet they had never been to China nor talked to an actual Chinese person.

My personal experience on finding the <2034...> on Wired

I seldom read fictions, I read mainly classics, history and philosophy, also I read academic research on finance and the economy as they are related to my work.
I have read the first five chapters on Wired and was very intrigued, I have to say I was never so interested in a book.
I waited very long for the release since I have read the first chapter back in January and religiously checked on Wired everyday in hoping they release the next chapter earlier than the announced day. And it turns out the first five chapters was about 75% of the book, leaving those whom actually bought the book feeling shortchanged. And the ending was a huge disappointment and a lot of things throughout the first five chapters that does not quite make sense or just not quite elaborated upon which I thought were plot twists to be revealed in the last chapter, but contrary to my hope they ended up just being loose ends that did not get tighten up. And the authors offered no explanations whatsoever.

To the book itself overall,

The battle scenario is totally unrealistic. In his book the Chinese Air force does not exist nor does China have any AWACS capabilities, nor A2AD capabilities nor any situational awareness of its immediate coastal areas. Somehow a military confrontation between China and the US in 2034 that has no space battles component, no hypersonic missiles, no high altitude hypersonic reconnaissance which seems highly unlikely. Because those weapon I mentioned are already in deployment and shown to the public on Chinese National day parades Oct 1st 2019. Such as the DF-17 hypersonic missile and WZ-8 hypersonic reconnaissance drone.

On the China part,
Main Chinese character Lin Bao (An American born Chinese)with both American and Chinese nationality and a CCP member, who was mentally torn apart on the inside by the confrontation between US and China, and ideologically disapprove everything Chinese government and the CCP stands for with latent admiration of America's "liberal democratic values" and somehow he rose to the top of Chinese military force command chain. OMG, I don't think Americans can get more narcissistic and self-absorbed, but they do keep excelling themselves. 👏👏🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Here are some facts about China and the CCP, just so you know:
First of all, China does not accept dual nationality. Secondly, foreign nationals are certainly not allowed to apply for CCP membership which is just one of the clear factual errors among many.
Thirdly, A CCP membership is not your Costco card or target loyalty card, they don't just let anyone whom applied to join. Again, you don't have to believe me, go look it up yourself.😉

These obvious mistakes that you can fact check and self-correct with a simply google search only exposes the American elites' idiotic and arrogant view of how the Chinese nation and society works and their prejudice on the concept of Chinese culture and intellect.

Some others obvious factual error, like tactical nuclear bomb destroying a whole city of 10million and 33.24million. A modern tactical nuclear bomb is normally 1-10kt（TNT yield equivalent) and at best 100kt hence the word "tactical". look it up. However you modify an F-18 you are not gonna mount a 100kt tactical nuke on it, the bomb's dimension is simply just too big for a multirole fighter/bomber). And Shanghai is over 6300sq km in land Area. A fall onto the ground detonation of a 10kt nuclear bomb would at best destroyed 10-20 city blocks and that's about it. The numbers just does not add up.

Another fatal logical error is that America retaliated against China's sinking of 2 American Carriers with a "tactical" nuke (150kt that contradicting the definition of tactical) that leveled a Chinese coastal city of 7m population(Zhanjiang)which is impossible as explained above. Pushing aside the obvious moral problem of committing war crimes on the American part retaliating against civilian targets with nuclear weapon just because China had sunk some US navy warships. After America had killed 7million Chinese, the American administration decided it is safe to conduct business as usual with the president and the entire cabinet at Whitehouse as if nothing had happened? Are you kidding me? Does the entire US executive branch got a death wish or something ? Especially after China had "magically" shut down the phone internet and electricity at Washington D.C. as a demonstration of technological capabilities on Cyber. That's just defying common sense, I don't know what is the exact protocol is after striking a nuclear armed country with nuclear bomb, it is certainly not to have the president and the cabinet to keep working in the White house. Tell me that I am wrong. 🥱🥱
(this is not spoiler, this is the part that already published on Wired free to read to anyone)

Therefore it is safe to conclude the author had no understanding on how nuclear weapon are deployed and how nuclear deterrence works. The world just don't have respect for America anymore, after a series of cluster-F**** US policies both domestic and foreign that lasted for 2 decades ( Bush Jr. Obama and Trump ). Economic mismanagement at home and multiple failed military adventures that lasted till today and still going on. All of these had stirred up global resentment against America and left its coffers in massive debt.

On the India part,
I might be bias on the country although I do respect its history and past achievements, also I have worked with many Indian colleagues while I was in Singapore. but it have an industrial sophistication equal that of China in the 90s. The country does not have a large population of well-educated work force, and I am not even talking about PHDs and Masters, I am talking about low to medium skilled workers that can qualify work at the garment factories and operate semiautomated textile machineries or read the blueprint at a construction site and immediately go to work. In order to qualify those positions you have to be able to read and to have reasonable mathematic skills and rudimentary understanding of physics and chemistry. And unfortunately a lot of young Indians do not meet the fore mentioned standards.
This is a country that till today its agriculture infrastructure is so weak it can not even achieve food self-sustainability. Not the least to say India to have the potential to achieve comparable industrialization of Today's China in 15years.
In the next 10years, with the onslaught of the 4th industrial revolution (IoT, 5G, AI, additive manufacturing and automation), there would not be any labor intensive sweatshop factory that can compete with Chinese factory that require Zero person and no lights. This is not sci-fi fantasy. There is already a XiaoMi phone unmanned factory that produces one smartphone per second with hundreds of robots and 5G IoT sensory equipment at a Beijing high tech industrial park and it started production in August 2020. My point is in the next 10years instead of yielding population dividend, the vast proportion of young but not well-educated nor well-skilled Indians are more likely going to be a source of economic burden and instabilities as they get out-competed by robots in other countries (namely China and Japan and etc.). And India had not accumulate enough wealth and build enough physical and social infrastructure to retrain them to make a transition nor to cushion the blow.
India build only one aircraft carrier and it took them 17 years from planning to commission. Go google how long it took for China to build its first domestically build aircraft carrier?
Therefore it is reasonable to assume that India had a very low chance of intergrading itself into the global manufacturing supply chain in a very big way and becoming a fully industrialized country for at least in the next 30years. Certainly not in the level of development depicted in this novel.
One anecdotal evidence is according to IMF for every year 6 out of 7dollar earned in the manufacturing capital will leave India and park in Tax heaven nearby i.e. Singapore & other places in the form of "reinvestment" and "connected trades" and eventually ended up in manufacturing activity or other investment somewhere in Africa Europe and the ASEAN countries . I know this because that was my job for the last 8 years to advise rich Indian on what to invest in Singapore. Many of my clients are Indians. And they told me, they prefer just make a dash run for money and then migrate to better places with lower taxes, higher capital returns and better labor laws and less regulatory "hurdles"(i.e. brown envelopes to officials) .
They are proud Indians, but just don't have too much faith in their countries.

The part which annoyed me the most,

There are quite a lot of trash talking throughout the pages and casual American narcissisms intended to vilified China based on his cold war era ideological believes which had no connections whatsoever with the reality of the Chinese nation and the Chinese society today.

Personal Rant while I was reading the ending:
*Trigger warning: If you don't like what I wrote above then you are NOT gonna like what I write below
Here is a thought experiment:
If the CCP regime and its government are so utterly authoritarian, corrupt, oppressive, and fundamentally illegitimate (and doom to collapse) then how does China had grown from a post WWII wasteland(35yr average life expectancy 10% literacy in 1949) to the 2nd largest economy today and poised to Challenge American supremacy in every domains(already surpassed America's GDP by PPP measure in 2015 and surely would have surpassed American GDP in 2034 by any measure).
For example, My parents are both professionals (a cardiovascular surgeon and database engineer) whom are incidentally not CCP members. They lives under the "oppressive" CCP "regime" for their entire life.(except for foreign holidays and conferences)They had such a bad life only had seem their personal wealth increased from less than USD$10,000 to USD$3.5mil in the last 30years while consumer price increased for perishable goods was about 3-10 times, durable goods have actually gone down in absolute price(i.e. cars, home appliances and consumer electronics). What happens to my parents had been a very common experience among the citizens of Shenzhen. Other Chinese people in small towns and rural village had seem their lives improved significantly in the same period but not as dramatic. You know.... hopeless Orwellian dystopia run by an oppressive CCP dictatorship.🤔🤔🤔

While in America, according to Nobel laureate Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz(who wrote my economic textbook as I studied in America 13 years ago) The medium income for an American male full time worker had not increase for 42 years and at the bottom real wages had not increase for 60years, both adjusting for inflations.*1 More than 40% of Americans don't have $400 dollars emergency cash. more than 60% of Americans don't have $800 dollars emergency cash. And Top 3 richest Americans now owns more wealth than the bottom 60%.*2
You know......Freedom, liberty, human rights and prosperity😏😏😏

Chinese average life expectancy had increase from 35-77years old (1949-2020), at the same time America the country claimed they have the best healthcare system somehow had manage to have their average life expectancy in gradual declines. Note: The current life expectancy for U.S. in 2021 is 78.99 years*3. China spend a little less than 6% of its GDP on overall healthcare but managed to cover 95% of its population with public healthcare insurance. Mind you China does have 4times of the U.S. population but only have 70% of the size of American economy. At the same time America spend 19.8% of its GDP covering 90% of its population. America spends 10 times as much as China per capita on healthcare only to achieve a more or less similar outcome. Yup, best healthcare in the world.🤦‍♂️

The BIG QUESTION IS (a question which I think about a lot )

Why there is such epistemology gap in recognizing the reality of China between Chinese people who actually lives in China and America's perception of China?


Reference:
1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iaw4n...
2. https://abcnews.go.com/US/10-american...
3.https://www.macrotrends.net/countries...

[Sleepy Boy · Rating 2 out of 5]

Let's be clear; this is no Tom Clancy Red Storm Rising level of work.

The writing and plot itself are fairly interesting and a different take on 3rd World War books. The characters, though, are pretty one-dimensional. There are no actual battle scenes either until the very end, which is a real shame. The premise of a battle gets set up, and then we change perspective, and once we are back to where the battle happened, it has already gone down. Only having one battle scene puts a lot of weight on that scene's shoulders. Sadly, the writing isn't there to make that scene this gut-wrenching ride to the climax it should have been.

And that, for me personally, is what drove this into 2-star territory. I wouldn't have minded the lack of depth on the characters if it had the chops to make up for this lack of development with heart-pounding battle scenes. Instead, we're treated as if the battle scenes are taboo on a prime time made for television movie and just left with the unfulfilling fade to black just as the action heats up.

[Marialyce · Rating 5 out of 5]

Growing up in a time where the threat of nuclear war between the US and Russia was a daily worry, I was well prepared for the story Mr Ackerman was going to tell. He and his co-writer, Admiral James Stavridis were certainly two men who were more than capable of looking into and describing how this third world war could start and end.

As always, there are no real winners in war just piles of bodies and people bereft because of loss and fear. As this war begins, it is the US and China where it starts and as tensions escalate we see the emergence of the reality of what happens when a country relies too much on technology, a technology, as we have seen, which can be constantly attacked and hacked. Shut down a country's technological capabilities and you literally shut down their ability to defend themselves. Clearly in this story there is a warning that as progressed as we seem to think technology has carried us, it can also be the cause of our downfall.

Also vividly pointed out is the human error factor. One small misstep can lead to many others that lead to what these authors have written of. This is a cautionary tale, one that the reader can clearly see happening if we don't find ways to curtail our all encompassing reliance on technology. This is certainly one of those stories that could sadly come true in the future.

[Robert Morris · Rating 3 out of 5]

About a quarter of the way through I actively hated this book. Having finished it though, I very much respect the effort, and I am impressed by the two men who chose to write it.

I think the problem is one of marketing, or perhaps just my misunderstanding of the marketing. What I really wanted to read was a semi-serious analysis of what a third world war might plausibly look like. Something along the lines of early Tom Clancy or 2015's far, far superior Ghost Fleet by P.W. Singer and August Cole. Admiral James Stavridis, one of the book's co-authors, is a highly decorated veteran of the US Navy, whose career included a stint heading up NATO. Stavridis has had access to the best thinking about the next great power war. Or at least one would hope he has. I was hoping for something that would add to my sense of what's possible a little bit, or at least suggest scenarios that might aid thinking. The fact that there was a special issue of Wired Magazine dedicated to this book led me to believe that it was going to provide a meaningful glimpse of the future.

It does not. At least not from a technical standpoint. The battle scenes are frankly laughable. Any layman with a cursory sense of how weapons technology has developed over the past half century will be deeply disappointed by this book. The action in one early scene launches when the commodore of a group of US Navy ships sees a potential threat... with her eyes?!? These things are packed with billions of dollars worth of sensing equipment, the idea that a group of US naval ships on a "Freedom of Navigation" cruise in the South China Sea would be surprised by a ship, or even a buoy, within the horizon line, is absurd. I'm not sure there were any serious naval engagements that involved ships seeing each other in World War II, let alone the 21st century.

SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS SPOILERS FROM HERE

The world of 2034 is one where aerial dogfights between manned fighter jets are still possible. It's one where drones and missiles don't seem to exist, and aircraft carriers are somehow still useful. The area access denial weapons that will be the key to any fight for Taiwan or off the coast of China are never mentioned. Cyberwar, a very real and serious threat, that 2015's Ghost Fleet deals with much more convincingly, is a key aspect of the book. But there is zero reckoning with what it might actually entail. "Cyber" is a magical fantasy weapon, with no consistent rules, that can do whatever the plot needs it to do. Possibly the most frustrating plot point of the book is one where the US military realizes that every aspect of its civilian and military communications hardware is compromised... and then sends a couple carrier groups out to get slaughtered anyway.

Upon reflection, I can see why this book was as disappointing as it is from a technical standpoint. As a US Navy admiral, Stavridis almost certainly does have a highly developed sense what the combat mechanics of the first few days of the next great power conflict will be. The problem of course, is that that information, the true possibilities of cyber war, and the real capabilities of our ships against cyber, drones and missiles are some of the most closely guarded secrets in the world. I read this book very quickly, but I think it's quite likely that the Russian and Chinese militaries have teams of analysts who have already dissected every sentence. I would bet they are even more disappointed than I am. Stavridis is too knowledgeable to risk trying to write a real techno-thriller. The battle scenes are warmed over World War II tropes, with cyber-fantasy, because that's probably all they could get through the US intelligence censors who must have reviewed the book.

If you want a good, thought provoking techno-thriller about war between the US and China, go read Ghost Fleet.

The book's ideas around geopolitics are pretty childish as well. You can tell that it was written by at least one guy who has sat at the center of the military industrial complex for far too long. In a book involving the titanic conflict of the US, India and China, Iran somehow gets crow-barred in as a major player. The Strait of Hormuz gets major play at the beginning and the end of the book, and one of our five viewpoint characters is an Iranian general. His presence becomes inadvertently hilarious, because the writers don't have much of an idea what to do with him either. He floats around as a liaison to militaries with real roles to play, and as a pawn in intelligence games. Even the most blob-ridden, Raytheon brain-poisoned, deep state take on a world war III scenario can't imagine a context where Iran presents any real threat to the United States.

One of the most fun aspects of near-future books like this is the throw-away details. How much or how little can things change over the course of a decade and a half? Unfortunately, given the message I think these guys are trying to portray, these fun details are all deeply silly. Like Foundation for Defense of Democracies level dumb. Our Iranian general is presented as the hero of Iran's victorious battle for the Golan heights. As if the United States would nuke China over Taiwan, but sit idly by as Israel was seriously threatened. The book is filled with infuriating little details like this. The authors seem to think that the US is more vulnerable to cyber-attack because its internet architecture is too decentralized, which seems to me to be pretty counter to the way that anything really works. All our potential enemies are stereotype ridden caricatures. The Chinese are sort of noble enemies, but there are passages here that get dangerously close to asserting that the Russians and Iranians are just devious and dastardly by nature. Also in tune with somewhat delusional US national security strategies, India ten years after Modi is portrayed as much more competent and better run than I think it has any hope of being.

The way that foreign policy establishment orthodoxy sometimes shines through is a shame, because at the end of the day I think that this is a deeply subversive book. Subversive in the best way as well. The writing is never dazzling, but in the character arcs of the Indian-American national security advisor, and the 4th generation fighter pilot who knows he's an anachronism, we get some real meditation on what the United States is, and what it should be.

When I thought this book, with all its glaring failures, was heading to a place of come from behind US victory in World War III, I was incensed. I was ready to write a scathing review and troll anybody on twitter who had anything nice to say about it. But the book ends up in a much more interesting place. Perhaps even a profound one. Stavridis and Ackerman can't provide the promised techno-thriller. Because of their background, and where their paychecks used to come from, their view of the world and our adversaries is severely limited. But what these guys do know is combat and its costs, and the deep limitations of the faltering US national security state.

I'm sure that the authors would favor different solutions to our current predicament than I would. But they have a surprisingly keen sense of which country presents the greatest threat to the world. This is a book where the United States both unnecessarily starts World War III and then loses it. This is not a techno-thriller. It's a surprisingly profound, and profoundly subversive meditation on the sorry state of the US military industrial complex. It doesn't live up to its marketing, but it's a fascinating artifact of our time. Not a waste of time.

[Monica (is working the heck out of · Rating 4 out of 5]

Just know that when the smoke clears, one nation gets reduced to a middle to low income country, another rises as an economic, political and military super power and millions upon millions of people around the globe are left dead, displaced or deathly ill.

Four stars rather than five because the ending is rushed and full of holes, not something you want in a novel whose expressed purpose is to warn readers of the potential profound and far-reaching consequences of leaving geopolitical conflicts, dangers and vulnerabilities unaddressed.

More specifically, I needed to know how the consequences of the conflict played out on the ground for everyday folks, and the one to two paragraph info-dump at the end just didn't cut it.


While it was essential that the story be told from the perspectives of those at the top and/or in the thick of things, the complete silence on the experiences of those forced to navigate everyday life in the midst of a third world war is a serious flaw.

Bottom line, I wanted to see more of what was happening on the ground.


How, for example, were parents and teachers helping children to cope with the fear of and uncertainty surrounding wartime?

What did the economic fallout look like for civilian employees and employers?

Other than voting smart (hahahahaha!) and elevating country above party (sigh), what can or should average citizens do to prepare for the eventuality of such a conflict.

There were also questions about the major players that went unanswered; at the risk of spoiling things , I'll just disclose that the book is completely mum on the ultimate fait of one of the cheif players in the chest-thumping /dick-waving contest that began and kept things going.

Still, 2034 was a great and thought provoking read , one that will keep me up nights for years to come.

[Sharon Orlopp · Rating 2 out of 5]

Please read the many positive reviews about 2034: A Novel of the Next World War.

I listened to this book on audiobook and it isn't my typical genre, but I was encouraged by all the positive reviews.

Unfortunately, the pace was too slow for me and it ended up being a DNF.

[Kay · Rating 3 out of 5]

A frightening concept when your enemies have cyber capabilities to take down all your communications, and hack your fighter jets. 2034, had my full attention for over half of the book then it fizzles.

[Staś · Rating 1 out of 5]

just ridiculous, I don't know why Wired did that to me. I'm not subscribing it to be getting some mediocre political fiction, one more story about whole world against America... ah apart from India, New Delhi 13 years from now will be modern metropolis with clean streets, how? because they defeated Pakistan in 10 days, that solved all India's problems...

[Kevin F Seyler · Rating 1 out of 5]

Not what I expected

Given the credentials of the authors, I was quite disappointed by this piece.
I read a lot in this genre and was amazed by the lack of any attempt at technical explanation behind the major events in the story.
EG: three American ships are destroyed without firing a shot after being rendered totally dead by a magic cyber weapon that China employs. All comms, all sensors, all weapon systems everything gone in a flash. So what does the US Navy do? You won’t believe it either.
After the resulting slaughter of dozens of US ships of all types, no details of the engagements are forthcoming. Just the assumption of a similar fate as the first three.
So what does the US President do? You won’t believe it either. How about a tactical nuke strike on a Mainland China city.
What could go wrong? BTW, with the Chinese super cyber crippling any and all American systems, how did they manage that? Yup, no detail. It just happens
Well, that’s enough. You should save your money. There’s a lot better out there

[Joe Terrell · Rating 2 out of 5]

As the subtitle declares, 2034 is a novel about "the Next World War." Following an incident in the South China Sea between the Chinese and American navies, events begin to cascade into...something much worse. With two military veterans (one of whom has received numerous literary accolades) serving as co-authors, I was more than excited to dig into this speculative fiction read.

Unfortunately, authors Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis seem hellbent on violating the "Show, Don't Tell" cardinal rule of storytelling. While the bones of the story in 2034 are inherently compelling, the most exciting and consequential sequences of the novel occur exclusively "off-camera." Multiple times through the narrative, the action cuts away from a character about to experience a Big Moment, only for another character (and the reader) to learn about the moment and its aftermath on the news or radio.

I understand this was probably an intentional stylistic choice, but what's the point of having multiple POV characters if you're not going to let us experience the most dramatic moments of the story through their eyes? And this trend extends to other aspects of the book, as well. A disproportionate amount of time is spent on character backstories, while the more fascinating national defense tidbits are glossed over. For example, instead of reading three pages on one character's unhappy marriage, I'd rather spend more time on the one-sentence aside about how America's commitment to deregulated industry leaves its infrastructure vulnerable to debilitating cyber attacks.

Also, for those looking for a "techno-thriller" or an exploration of near-future military tactics, you may want to look elsewhere. In 2034, cyber warfare is akin to magic, and the few tactics you're privy to are nothing more than basic game theory ("If we bomb one city, they'll bomb two cities"). Additionally, no mention is made of the dire economic and trade ramifications a war between the U.S. and China would inevitably trigger. I mean, each country heavily relies on the other for supply chain purposes, and we never learn how a megawar would affect both nations' economies.

2034 isn't a complete disappointment. Ackerman and Stavridis do a good job of ratcheting up the dread and tension (though when the build-up to that tension is delivered via background "Breaking News" alerts, it loses its effect as the story reaches its (mostly off-screen) climax and resolution). And there are some pretty profound observations about how the "America we believe in" is a mere shadow of what we assume and more of a result of post-WWII overconfidence.

Unfortunately, it's not enough to salvage the reading experience - the fascinating bits appear intentionally few and far between. Reading 2034 is like watching a TV show with a budget that can't match its ambition - which doesn't make sense for a book. if you're curious about picking up 2034, I recommend dusting off a copy of Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising or Eric Harry's Arc Light instead.

[Robert · Rating 1 out of 5]

I wanted a war book like Red Storm Rising. I read the Wired excerpt by mistake. I thought it would be articles about a real-life possible war with China which is why I bought it. After finding out it was an excerpt, I still read it and was hooked. I eagerly waited for the book to come out so I could read it. That is when the disappointment set in.

For a war between China and the United States this book was woefully short on the war part. The book itself is also too short. The excerpt in Wired is a massive chunk of the book. It is also unfortunately the best part of the book.

It has also got all the progressive eye-rolling nonsense that we seem to have to live with these days in everything in life. Right down to the Michelle Obama attack submarine. I thought that part was hilarious but then realized that it is possible for today’s White House to name a submarine after her. It is all part of being woke.

Then there is the technological angle. I can believe the Chinese can mess with America's power structure aka turn off our lights. I can even believe that the Chinese could temporarily blind our ships with some new technological breakthrough. I cannot believe that America has no way of dealing with this. That we are literally crushed. The American's also lose an F-35 to this new technology and all because they foolishly decided to fly the F-35 with a new stealth package over Iran. What? Who would make such a stupid decision to test a new system by flying over Iran?

Also, it appears the Indian military has made a significant leap in technology that not even China or America sees coming at the end of the book. It is literally a Deus Ex Machina. The Indian military can make major moves that no one on the planet sees happening until it is too late. It is also implied but never stated out right the Indian military has the same tech China does to shut off an enemy’s systems. Oh, and somehow the Indians have a diesel submarine with new technology that gives it unlimited range as if it was a nuclear submarine. It is said right there in the book. I could not believe it.

There were no battles of significance in the book. In Red Storm Rising you had several battles. Some may think it is unfair to compare this book to Red Storm Rising but again I wanted a war book on the level of Red Storm Rising.

Russia decides to seize the moment and invade Poland to take back some land so it can connect Kaliningrad to Russia. A single Polish plane survives long enough to attack the Russian invasion fleet and that is it. The rest of the battle is not described and frankly is forgotten about in the rest of the book. We never learn if Poland gets the land back or for that matter what is NATO doing since Poland is a member of NATO. (member since 1999)

China wipes out 37 American ships including two Aircraft Carriers yet again the battle is talked about after it has happened. We do not actually see the battle on paper. A massive disaster for the United States Navy and given the number of ships sunk you easily have over 10,000 dead sailors. But it is not in the book. It is just described afterwards in a few tidbits here and there. That is not enough.

China invades Taiwan. We never see this battle. We hear only its outcome which of course is a Chinese win. After that we hear nothing else about Taiwan. Looks like China got to keep it after the war.

Russia decides instead of helping the Chinese like agreed to by cutting a couple internet wires on the bottom of the ocean so America's internet is only slowed down the Russians stab China in the back and just blow up all the wires and almost take out America's entire internet. The Russians apparently want total war between the United States and China.

At this point, America believing that China took out the internet, hits a Chinese port with a tactical nuclear weapon. Only one problem; this nuke is a 150-kiloton nuclear weapon. That is not a tactical nuclear weapon. That is a strategic level nuke. At least it would be in the eyes of the Chinese government. Also, this weapon kills millions. Nuclear weapons are nasty, and I hope they are never used but a single nuclear weapon, even a 150 kiloton one, is not going to kill millions of people in a city. I know China has a lot of people packed into cities, but it is still not going to happen. The target was the port. Not downtown.

China of course retaliates and nukes two US cities also causing millions of deaths. Again, not going to happen. Yes thousands, hundreds of thousands, could die in such an attack but the nukes just are not big enough to do it. You would need to use multiple nukes on each city to make sure you covered every square foot of the city in a nuclear fireball to get a kill number into the millions. But since the book makes no mention of how many nukes China used on each city; we have no idea. As far as we know only a single nuke was used on each city.

And just three nukes are enough to interfere with weather patterns around the whole world. So much so that Iran defeats a Russian surprise invasion (the Russians are just bastards in this book LOL) by sheer luck. The Russian troops parachute into the water by accident and that is the end of that invasion. Since Iran and Russia are friendly towards each other no one knows how to handle this invasion of Iranian territory.

America of course decides to retaliate with more nukes and instead of using ICBM or SLBM missiles they use F-18 aircraft that have been stripped of all the electronics to the point the pilots have to fly using maps, watches, and pencil to navigate. The Indians meanwhile have sunk the Chinese aircraft carrier. The Indians then magically chase down the American F-18 aircraft and shoot them all down except for one. That one manages to make it to Shanghai and detonate its nuke and kill 30 million people. 30 MILLION. Chinese response? Nothing. The war essentially stops because of India. I'd think that in real life if we hit a Chinese city and killed 30 million people the Chinese would tell India where it could go, and China would nuke America and we'd have an all-out nuclear war.

But the book essentially just stops. World economy is wrecked. America is wrecked economically. The current administration does not survive a scandal where someone in it did not listen to India which could have prevented Shanghai's destruction. The state of China’s government and economy is not mentioned but both are assumed to have survived. India is now the world’s top dog apparently as both China and America are kowtowed. We get some character closures and that is it. It is all over.

We get no real battles on the page. We also get no explanation for how the Chinese technological perfidy works. We also get no explanation as to why American submarines are not out there hunting down Chinese ships. It is as if the submarine fleet, including the USS Michelle Obama, took the war off. They will show up in the next war.

And how did this war start?

China decided that it wanted the South China Sea to itself, so it lured America into a trap. Sunk three American destroyers killing hundreds of American sailors and stole an F-35 (that landed in Iran thanks to the unexplained Chinese technology). It expected that America would back down in such a situation and let China take the area. Then when America does not back down the Chinese sink a further 37 American ships, two of which are aircraft carriers, and still expects America to back down.

Japan in real-life believed that it could hit Pearl Harbor, a bunch of other American bases across the Pacific and we would back down and let them run the western Pacific. That did not work for Japan. Why would China think a similar scenario, attacking and killing Americans, would work for them?

Let us hope the real-life Chinese are not that stupid. America would not back down in such a situation. No administration could afford to, and the nation would not allow it.

And I seriously doubt that China would accept India sinking it's aircraft carrier with no response.

This book was a disappointment. :(

[George K. · Rating 4 out of 5]

Για σχεδόν τρεις μήνες το είχα στο περίμενε το βιβλίο, αλλά έπρεπε να έχω την κατάλληλη διάθεση για να διαβάσω ένα πολεμικό/πολιτικό θρίλερ όπως αυτό, τώρα είχα τη συγκεκριμένη διάθεση και έτσι το απόλαυσα σε μεγάλο βαθμό. Οφείλω να πω ότι είναι από τα πιο εθιστικά και ευκολοδιάβαστα βιβλία που έχω διαβάσει ποτέ, από τη μια η γραφή και από την άλλη ο τρόπος αφήγησης και φυσικά η θεματολογία του με έκαναν να το διαβάσω σε δυο μεγάλες δόσεις, ουσιαστικά με ελάχιστα διαλείμματα. Εντάξει, αντικειμενικά είναι λίγο αμερικανιά, ίσως λίγο απλοϊκό ως προς την παγκόσμια πολιτική και τη γεωστρατηγική, αν και η αλήθεια είναι ότι το περίμενα περισσότερο αμερικανιά, περίμενα ότι οι Αμερικάνοι θα ήταν οι καλοί και οι Κινέζοι, οι Ρώσοι, οι Ιρανοί και οι λοιποί η προσωποποίηση του Κακού, ο ίδιος ο Σατανάς επί της Γης. Αλλά όχι, όλοι ήταν εξίσου ανόητοι και απερίσκεπτοι να ξεκινήσουν και να συνεχίσουν μια κόντρα με πολλά, πολλά θύματα και μεγάλες καταστροφές. Τέλος πάντων, κάποιος που είναι πιο ψαγμένος με τις συμμαχίες των χωρών, με τη γεωστρατηγική, με τα διεθνή συμφέροντα, αλλά και την τεχνολογία, ίσως να βρει πολλά ψεγάδια, πολλές τρύπες και πολλές αστοχίες, όμως εγώ που απλώς ξέρω τα βασικά και σε τέτοια βιβλία δεν ενδιαφέρομαι και τόοοοσο πολύ για τον ρεαλισμό και την αληθοφάνεια, πέρασα πολύ ωραία, η ιστορία με καθήλωσε, με άγχωσε, με έκανε να αγωνιώ για το τι στο διάτανο θα γίνει παρακάτω, ενώ επίσης μου άρεσε αρκετά η γραφή και ο τρόπος αφήγησης, με την εναλλαγή σκηνικών και χαρακτήρων κάθε τόσο, ώστε να βλέπουμε ταυτόχρονα τις κινήσεις του ενός και του άλλου. Μπορώ κάλλιστα να καταλάβω αυτούς που θα του βάλουν τρία ή δυο ή ακόμα και ένα αστεράκι, όμως εγώ του βάζω τέσσερα, απλά γιατί πέρασα καλά και επειδή με κράτησε στην τσίτα από την αρχή μέχρι το τέλος!

[Bryan Alexander · Rating 4 out of 5]

2034 is a thriller about a future war between the United States and China.

It's in the tradition of military warning fiction, stories aimed at convincing a government or public to take steps against an impending danger. Think of Conan Doyle's "Danger!" (1914), which warned Britain of a looming submarine war threat, or general John Hackett's The Third World War (1978/82), which urged NATO to expand its defenses against a Soviet attack. 2034 is aimed at the United States, calling on the country to rapidly develop cyberwar capacities, lest an intercontinental disaster loom.

So the book has two missions, nail-biting adventure and a nonfiction argument. To the authors' credit it does both well. The thriller aspect is handled through multiple points of view, limited information, and many cliffhangers. There are some melodramatic touches, like prophetic dreams and gratuitous animal harm, which feel intended to raise our sympathies while humanizing a large scale conflict. One of the authors is an admiral, which is probably why most of the action is naval. Ground combat largely happens off-stage.

The nonfiction argument is interesting, in that it's fairly cryptic. Here I need to hide behind spoilers. China pulls off the much-anticipated "electronic Pearl Harbor," easily defeating American navies and air power. Yet we don't learn much beyond that. Was it clever hacking?
AI? No details appear on this score. But that is the warning to America. Not build more ships, nor improve fighters, but get that cyber capacity at world beating level.

There's also an interesting twist near the end which I didn't quite buy. Again with the spoilers. India enters the stage as a global player, effectively blocking the US and China. The narrative tries to make this work with an Indian-American character from the start, but otherwise it feels too sudden. It's not established how India would advance so quickly.

We can take 2034 as a signal from the American military mind, a warning about a possible disaster. As such the novel offers a useful read on our times.

[Martin, I stand with ISRAEL · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book is just sad.

Here we go. The United States sends some ships through the South China Sea to challenge Chinese sovereignty and the Chinese torpedo the US ships. Well this doesn’t sit well with the United States, so they send more ships into the area. Once again, the Chinese torpedo all the U.S. navy ships. Well now the U.S. is really, really upset and nuke a Chinese city. The Chinese are so upset they seek revenge by nuking San Diego, CA and Galveston, Texas. Etc….etc…etc

In the mean time, America’s other enemies decide they should get in the act. Russia blast the United States internet cables in the North Sea. Why? To cause trouble. Iran decides to close the Straits of Hormuz. Why? 🤷‍♂️.

This book has many failings.
1. The authors hardly mention U.S. and Chinese leaders. This whole war is performed by underlings in their respective governments.
2. This book makes the Iranians look as respectable and responsible. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
3. This book is very anti-Semitic. They call the Israel Defense Force cowardly. The Indian admiral recoils from Israelis. Persians hate Israel.
4. The authors are Republicans. They mention the Pence administration. Former Vice-President Mike Pence as president? Really? Really? Yes, I have an issue with this.

Don’t waste your money or time on this book.

[Carlex · Rating 3 out of 5]

Three and a half stars

Good ideas and a development that manages to surprise the reader. The novel does well what it wants to explain: necessarily in a simplified way, by means of a few characters, a conflict between the USA and China and its repercussions worldwide.

[Mike]

It was a few months ago that I started to receive Harper's magazine in the mail for some unknown reason. Not that I mind, although there is something disconcerting about the idea that a magazine can abruptly begin to appear in your mailbox monthly- or even bi-weekly, for all we know- and that there's nothing you can do about it. I went to the Harper's website, tried e-mailing them- no answer. There didn't seem to be the slightest shred of evidence that I was subscribed to Harper's, or any reason that it was being sent to me, meaning that my only course of action has been to accept the insolubility of the mystery...and to read Harper's, of course. A couple of weeks ago, while I was up to go to the bathroom in the middle of the night- which happens all the time now, because I'm old- I retrieved the latest issue from the mailbox. It was about 4:30 in the morning. The headline (sic?) of the featured story on the cover read:

The Next Civil War: Are We Living Through Another Antebellum Era?

As I brought the magazine back to my room, a thought flashed through my mind: "they want it to happen, don't they?" It was just a thought, maybe an uncharitable one. I even had reason to feel uncharitable. I was still pretty steamed at Harper's, after all, for neglecting to ask me to contribute a piece to their "what's next after Trump?" issue. Did they lose my contact information or something? Bastards. Anyway, the issue in my hands, as I noticed while looking at the table of contents, also contained a story about the "dangers" of meditation. As I laid back down, I couldn't help wondering: if meditation is "dangerous", what isn't dangerous?

Come to find out a few days later that the author of the "next Civil War" piece, former Marine Elliot Ackerman, is also one of the authors of this new book, 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, co-written with Jim Stavridis, retired four-star admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO.

So what does this mean? What conclusions should I draw from this?

I don't know. I don't want to slander anyone, especially an ex-Marine. Never antagonize Marines unnecessarily, as a friend of mine likes to say. It's good advice. And it's entirely possible that the novel isn't jingoistic bullshit, even if it is doing its best to look like it. It's also possible that I'm only superficially reminded of Cold War propaganda movies like the Patrick Swayze vehicle Red Dawn, about a small band of American patriots who have to fight off a Soviet invasion (they re-made it in 2012 with North Korea as the villain). But it does make me want to ask: how subversive can you really be, as a writer, when you're co-writing novels with a retired admiral? Also, do they have a writing office for you at the Pentagon?

I've noticed other talk of coming war. While masochistically scanning the New York Times editorial page a couple of weeks ago, for example, a page perhaps best described as "a group of people who all agree with each other, and also Ross Douthat", I noticed that one of Bret Stephens's recent pieces is called, "How Will We Win the Second Cold War?" Damn, I'd completely forgotten about that one.

So just to keep things straight, we have at least three (3) catastrophic wars on the way:

(1) the second American Civil War;
(2) the third World War, also known as the Sino-American War (estimated date: 2034);
(3) the second Cold War, which may or may not be going on as we speak (also against China, as I understand it).

Of course, you'd think that (2) and (3) couldn't take place at the same time; if anything, (3) would seem to lead into (2). Except that if "we" win (3), as Bret Stephens implicitly assures us we will, wouldn't that preclude the need for (2)? And wouldn't it make sense to win (3) as quickly as possible, so we can get on with (1)?

A friend of mine stopped by last weekend to drop off more of the items I've been packing and mailing for him, having acquired more of the unnamed items in question through his extremely shadowy international distribution network. The items were delayed, he explained, and he made vague references to problems in the South China Sea, about which I asked no questions; he pays me in cash, after all, which allows me to evade my many vengeful creditors. I'm sure the calls I've started receiving with nothing but heavy breathing on the other end of the line are just a coincidence. In any case, he listened patiently to a rough version of what I've just written here. "Maybe", this friend suggested, "we'll avoid the next Civil War by uniting in a war against China."

That's perfect. Now why didn't I think of that? Well, it's okay- hopefully some people in positions of power are thinking along those lines right now. But how to impress upon the body politic this vital need for...no, no, inevitability of...war? Well, people like stories. If only we could find some writer...

[Teck Wu · Rating 3 out of 5]

3.5 stars. If you would like to see a version of how war could be escalated in the future, this is a really good book, as it is well-researched and executed. The anxieties of peace-time military leaders can really be felt. It really makes you wonder what goes on in their heads.

[Robyn · Rating 3 out of 5]

2034: A NOVEL OF THE NEXT WORLD WAR

I had to start this two different times to get into it. The first, I guess I just wasn't ready to read it and the second time, it took. I was clearly afraid I was going to DNF it, just because I couldn't get my interest up.

The story is set in the future, and so there is always the chance that something similar to it might occur. Clearly, America is dependent on the grid and Internet and if that were to fail, then we might be in a pickle much like the author imagines. After all, we are looking at cars that can drive themselves and airplanes that are auto-piloted by computers so how far-fetched is it to believe the computer might be cracked or a virus? So, the premise is interesting, to say the least.

The story is about a female Naval Commodore (Sarah Hunt) and a US Marine aviator (Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell). These two military professionals encounter major issues on the same day, one losing a guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones to the bottom of the China Sea and the other an F35E Lightning aircraft to the Iranians. Clearly, China and Iran have partnered up to defeat the US, or at least bring them down a few rungs on the ladder. America seems to have fallen from the super world power.... but the fight isn't over.

I have to say that the book, because of my location made me stop and think about smart bombs and tactical nukes. Living in the Houston/Galveston area makes you stop and think... the economic security the area offers vs the targetability of the area.

I found the book interesting and plausible, if we learned anything from 9/11 is to never discount imagination. So if someone can imagine it, then it can happen. I enjoyed the superficial political maneuvering in the book, but it seemed very lightly touched. There were no epic battles, although I guess when you use nukes you don't need hand-to-hand combat so one plane chasing the other is probably what you get. The battles were cleanly handled in other words, discussed from the after-the-fact position.

The characters were hand-designed for their purpose and were not very deep... sort of the Tom Cruise fighter pilot thing without the flybys. I ended up without a favorite character, there were many, Commodore Hunt and Wedge were the main ones, but again sort of deep as paper.

I am going to call the book OK, I did enjoy it, but I am not bouncing around going yeah!!! or OMG, no tears running down my face. The book, once I got into it was very readable, straightforward, what is it they say, 'short, sweet and to the point'. It struck me like a Clancy novel, but where Clancy burdens his reader with details and descriptions, Ackerman does not, so they seem evenly matched to me.

3 stars

Happy Reading!

[Jeff Stanley · Rating 2 out of 5]

I was excited given the reviews by the press, but found the read more along the lines of pure fiction, more along the lines of a laughable military movie (and I was in the Marines) than a "this is what could happen" type of book. I disagree with the favorable comparisons of "The Third World War" by Sir John Hackett.... the basic simplicity of the writing, the premise of the vast difference in technical capabilities and even the incongruities of the initial encounter with the boat.

Reminds me more of a spy movie where one guy with a pistol and 1 magazine takes out 77 bad guys in a gun fight, I guess it could happen - like the NHL calling me up to play at age 59 - but the odds are so long to makes the whole idea laughable.

I could go on and on, but if I were in the military I would be offended that a retired admiral thinks so little of my abilities to stamp his name on this portrayal.

[Amy Sutton · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was such an interesting read - a speculative fiction about what may cause the next world war in 2034. Several different narratives unfold following a US Navy Commodore, Marine aviator, the US president, and interrogators and leaders in India, Iran, and China. I sometimes don't enjoy stories with alternative perspectives, but this was the perfect balance of viewpoints from a very large cast. The background and personal perspectives were so well developed. I could believe that these people were completely real. I felt tender hearted towards so many of these characters; I would easily pick up any one of their autobiographies if it existed.

The only thing I wish was slightly different was that the war was slightly more complex and ended differently. This was beautifully character-focused and an overall great story.

[Paul · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good stuff. An imaginative story using present-day facts combined with the authors’ years working at the highest levels of national security creates a cautionary tale that presents the reader a dark yet possible future. The authors do a good of job depicting the costs of geopolitical disagreement, while not concentrating on hardware like most military thrillers. Some of the more exciting scenarios occur offstage. This might be best for readers seeking a realistic look at how a future world war might play out.

Thanks very much for the ARC for review!!

[Zeb Kantrowitz · Rating 4 out of 5]

Imagine if the Red Chinese were able to block all relevant electronic emissions so that all communications in the US so that all plane avionics, naval communications and telecom control became useless. What if you couldn't fly because all of your computer systems were dead, so that you had no working radar or sonar or satellite communication. That's the premise of the start of this book. The part about sabotaging all of our computers systems is plausible, the after effect has many iterations, this is just one.

Just as the loss of any fuel would bring this country to a halt (all electrical generation and transport) the country would be plunged into the dark and food couldn't be delivered. There would be panic and vigilantism across the country. How would the US protect itself from attack by our enemies like China, Russia, Iran, etc. Who would come to our aid after Trump and his followers have help to gut NATO and anger most of our friends.

Ackerman follows through on the effect the government would have with the all-true saboteurs that are located in many top levels of the country. They will prevent the country from reacting in a way like they did on Jan 6. Reps and Senators still refuse to blame the Far Right, and continue to put out lies to complicate the truth and confuse people.

[Meg ✨ · Rating 3 out of 5]

all that for just 2 pages of ending was a *choice*

[Jason Pettus]

2021 reads, #8. DID NOT FINISH. Mediocre race-baiting technothriller nonsense. Not so much a "disturbingly plausible" and "chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller" like the dust jacket declares, but more a cartoonishly unrealistic and childishly written war-hawk wet dream, in which an all-ascendent Chinese military ten years from now deliberately triggers a world war by deploying technology so advanced it might as well be magic spells by Hogwarts students. How do you know the Asians are the baddies? Why, their military leader menacingly eats M&Ms on the front porch of the White House right at the 10 percent mark! Ouch, stop hitting me directly on the nose so hard, Ackerman and Stavridis! If you listen closely, you can hear Tom Clancy spinning in his grave, which is perhaps this book's greatest crime, far beyond its attempt to justify its ugly racism -- of insulting the very audience it's supposed to be geared towards. As more informed reviewers at Goodreads have pointed out, this book doesn't get even the first thing right about China's military structure or cultural norms, which is the most obvious sign of the authors' contempt for their readers; say what you will about Clancy, but he at least respected the Soviets enough to make them the kind of smart and rational villain that can truly drive political thrillers like these. Ackerman and Stavridis have no such respect for their own villains, making this book a disappointment to all but the most hardcore Tr*mp-loving, gun-toting xenophobes, just itching for an excuse to shoot up some Asian-Americans and destined to use this plodding, nonsensical novel as their excuse for doing so. ("Dem chin-chins were gonna blow up all our cellphones with their magic lasers, and dem libtards were gonna let 'em! U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!") Avoid at all costs; or better yet, boycott your local bookstore for even carrying it, as well as the now fully fallen and currently morally bankrupt Wired magazine for giving the book all its original hype. Fuck you, Penguin Press; do better than this.

[Owlseyes]

“The purpose of ‘2034’ is to show how miscalculation — a faulty understanding of controlling the ladder of escalation and an inability to understand what the other side aims to accomplish — could lead the U.S. and China into a war.”


In:https://www.noemamag.com/war-with-chi...

[Tim Joseph · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5

A strong read that seems ripped from the headlines of today, outlining the path humanity may take in the upcoming future. With Clancy-style descriptive precision, this military thriller will both get your pulse pounding, and make you think about the future outlined, and how close it may strike to the truth....

[Branko Jeličić · Rating 4 out of 5]

Not exactly Tolstoy but Wow, wow, wow for the plot. Admiral makes it believable. First chapter is BANG, 2nd one is BANG, BANG....

It is a pity the writer did not put more effort into building characters, the plot is great, but needs more flavour around it

[Nathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Pretty fascinating novel about an hypothetical outbreak of war and the sociological underpinnings of war.

[Charles · Rating 2 out of 5]

A cautionary tale set 10-minutes Years Into the Future military fiction/political thriller mashup in which the Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo (People’s Republic of China (PRC)) instigates a regional showdown which through miscalculation and misadventure spirals into nuclear war.


McDonnell-Douglas F/A-18 Hornet—Still serving in 2034. First flown in 1980, a 54-year old aircraft.

My audiobook was 10-hours, 49-minutes long. A dead tree copy would be a modest 230-pages. The book had a US 2021 copyright. The audio book had five (5) narrators: Emilly Woo Zeller, P.J. Ochlan, Vicas Adam, Dion Graham, and Feodor Chin voicing the story’s ensemble cast of characters.

This book was co-authored. James Stavridis is a retired United States Navy admiral, currently involved in numerous high-level commercial, academic and media positions. He is the author of about ten (10) non-fiction books on military and political topics. Elliot Ackerman is an American author and former Marine Corps officer. He is the author of five works of fiction. This is the first book I've read by either author.

Firstly, it is not completely necessary to have any previous: military, military history, geography or technology background to be reading this book. However, it would be helpful to have a Popular Mechanics -level understanding of contemporary military systems, a familiarly with military and both PRC and US political organization, and a grasp of Western Pacific Ocean and South Asian, as well as Iranian politics and geography.

Secondly, I have spent several years amongst U.S. and allied soldiers, sailors and airmen, both officers and rankers. I’m also familiar with several US weapon systems, a scant few of which appeared in the narrative. I also fancy myself an amateur military historian and armchair general admiral. This makes me somewhat more critical of the authors, than most folks.


This book was part of the long tradition of modern, hypothetical wars, military fiction first made recently popular in the 1980’s by books like John W. Hackett’s The Third World War: August 1985 and Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. These genre-books include a detailed military narrative of a future war against the West’s (typically American) then-current geopolitical rivals. Military technology, soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines, as well as politicians and political leaders are deeply woven into the story.

Finally, this book likely came into shape in 2020, two years before the Russian Federation’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine. In the story, the octogenarian Vladimir Putin is still the Russian president in 2034. Russian actions in the story are likewise in-line with recent history.

TL;DR Review

This is how The American Century ends. In the story, there was a Sino-American Great Politics Mess-Up over territorial claims in the South China Sea. This results in a cyber coup de main where modern naval tactical and operational warfare ensues. The US military computer-based systems are revealed to have been thoroughly pwned by the PRC. Meanwhile, Russian and Iranian malfeasance, and combatant governmental miscalculation propel an ‘incident’ into tactical nuclear exchanges between the PRC and USA. The story ends through an unexpected great power intervention to forestall Armageddon which changes the global Balance of Power. The geopolitics of the story were too contrived once past their grounding in the present. Some operational aspects of the combat sidestepped national military doctrine(s) to cater to a better naval combat centered story. However, the combat vignettes were good, albeit brief. The machinations and the exposed flaws Inherent in the System of government of both the US and PRC were more detailed. The authors were too heavy-handed in the lessons learnt. The story illustrated (to me) that, With Great Power Comes Great Insanity.

The Review

Writing was technically good. Descriptive prose was written in a clear, unaffected manner. A competent, details oriented, ‘writing team’ typically produces a well-groomed narrative. The narrative contains a moderate amount of details in scenes on both sides of the conflict. Dialog, at least that related to action scenes was good too. However, I thought the prose meant to elicit emotional impact to be too melodramatic.

In addition, be prepared for an over-use of martial quotations from: Napoleon, Sun-Tzu, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, Abraham Lincoln, etc. Oddly, I don’t recall any American admirals or generals being quoted? I have also left the reader of this review a few quotes I favor.

I had a several real issues with the prose.

Firstly, the characters felt very flat. This was an artifact of the very short, chapters with changing POVs and only a modest number of pages. It did not leave a lot pages for character development, nor did they give me time to become invested in most of them.

Secondly, there was a lot of exposition. This was an advantage in the cut ‘n dried techo-political plotlines. However, the narrative fell flat when attempting to describe emotional relationships other than the “comrades-in-arms” type. Male, female relationships (all relationships were heterosexual) came out as too on the nose.

Finally, as previously written, I have spent some time in the company of ranker: soldiers, sailors and Marines. The lowest ranking member of the US Armed forces receiving any real notice in the prose was a Chief Petty Officer. This story was "the view from above". The lowest rank contributing a POV was a Marine Major. Most were or soon to be admirals. The politicians and governmental office holders were of likewise rarified office appointed or elected.

Two Indians, five Chinese, five Americans, A Russian and an Iranian character carry the story. However, five of the characters provided POVs. Note that in my audio book with its five (5) narrators, each narrator ‘did’ one character. I'll write this again,"Five POVs was too many POVs in the story". Each POV was there to demonstrate an aspect of the conflict. Frankly, there were two (2), perhaps three (3) too many POVs? Except for one, none of them received the development needed.


First amongst equals protagonist-wise was Marine Maj. Chris “Wedge” Mitchell. He was the anchoring USMC POV. He’s a pilot from a family of Marine aviators. Mitchell received the most development of all the characters. He's a warrior and a pilot. He was the tragic, Action Hero. Sandeep "Sandy" Chowdhury is Mitchell’s opposite. He’s a first-generation Indo-American, policy-wonk on the National Security Council . Chowdhury is the Indo-American every man in the White House who sees the situation clearer than his superiors, but is discounted. Chowdhury is also there to anchor the authors' Pro-immigrant theme. He was the Cowardly Lion. Commodore Sarah Hunt, later Admiral Hunt, provides insight into the operational aspects of the conflict. She also adds the woman’s perspective of it and a naval career leading to high rank. She was the woman successful in a man's world, but doubting her success as a woman. Iranian Brigadier General Qassem Farshad provides the second-world perspective to the conflict. He was the warrior who found peace. Chinese Admiral Lin Bao, is the PRC’s expert on Americans, being half-American and graduate of both Harvard Kennedy School of Government and the U.S. Naval War College. Bao provides the PRC military contrast to the U.S. admirals. He was the Gentleman and a Scholar fall guy.

The antagonists include the PRC’s Central Political Bureau, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and the still ruling despot Vladamir Putin. The Bao character is the interface with the Chinese Politburo. The Farshad character is the interface with the Russians through a Russian character intermediary. He is also the Iranian leadership interface. Chowdhury is the interface with the antagonists in the White House. By interface, I mean delivering the exposition needed for a reader to understand the structure of power of the nations involved.

The final chapter, “Coda: The Horizon”, was a terribly awkward attempt at The Summation trope, from the surviving POVs. It was the schmaltziest of chapters that had verged on schmaltz throughout.

The book contained no sex, a small amount of drugs, and a small amount of music references. (That's, sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll.) There was a lot of violence, including torture. Alcohol was the only drug consumed. That was in moderation. Music references came from references to background music. Oddly, traditional Indian music received more attention than western. Violence was: physical, small arms, and military heavy weapons. Violence was not gory and only mildly descriptive. Although, there was a particularly descriptive scene with violence against animals. As in many thrillers, the POV contributing protagonists had remarkable stamina and healing capability. Body count was high. (There was a war on.)


There were no maps included in the book, not that I expected them with an audio book. Yet, there should have been maps. I found myself using Google Earth to keep pace with the narrative and to access the terrain. For example: South China Sea .

“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”
-- General Omar Bradley US Army

I also found the time/space aspect of the plot to be suspect. Events did not take into account the vast distances of the Pacific or the friction of wartime conditions on operations. This was all very surprising to me considering the authors' military credentials?

For example, Lin Bao leaves command of the Zheng He off-shore of Taiwan on 6 July supporting the invasion of that island. The Zheng He participates on a nuclear strike on San Diego on 29 July. That's 23 days. Its about 11,100 km from Taipei to San Diego. For reference, a cargo vessel takes 12-16 days (weather dependent) to make that trip. That's a direct, least distance crossing. The Zheng He's carrier battle group would need to plan and execute that strike on San Diego in three weeks (23 days) coming from a combat engagement. That includes: refit and reprovision and stealthily cross the Pacific, while presumably taking anti-submarine precautions. Note the 'stealthy' approach to avoid observation on the shorter sea lanes, while continuously taking anti-submarine countermeasures could easily double the direct route travel time. Also, provisioning a battle group depleted from supporting an amphibious invasion of a hostile shore is not an 'overnight' task.

Frankly, I was greatly surprised the Chinese were not intercepted by American submarines before reaching the North American shore. I would have expected one or a pair of Chinese Shang-class SSNs (Type 093) to have launched a newly developed naval version of the DF-10 long-range land-attack cruise missile. This would not have risked the Chinese surface battlegroup, prudently maintaining them as a fleet-in-being in the relative safety of the western pacific. Also, the naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii would have made a better target than the San Diego naval base. However, The Admiral needed a better story, not a more realistic war?


First and foremost, this story was a story of disruptive technology. Another is that miscalculation, and plain bad luck are endemic to war plans. (I was surprised the authors missed the opportunity to quote Helmuth von Moltke ?) Also that opportunist adversaries of the U.S. like the Chinese, Russians and Iranians are likely to play important roles in widening confrontations. Unlike many techno-fests of this genre, the story wasn’t completely there to support the military hardware. In fact, the US’s military hardware was its greatest liability. The real message of the story was, “Asia is rising. The wealth and power of the US are in relative decline.” The subtext was, “Fighting a war with China would be a disaster”

Having written that, the levels of detail were only moderate. The weapons, combat systems and the doctrine applied were very correct. For example, the cyber-attack on some elements of the US Command and Control infrastructure used all the correct terminology and was a textbook example of what could be accomplished by a well-resourced and determined aggressor.

While I thought the guns, drums, smoke, and bugles were good, I also thought the authors took liberties to bend their story to be an epic Pacific air/surface (sea) combat story ala WWII in the Pacific Theater. Inconvenient to the authors’ story were the US Army, Air Force and most of the Marine Corps. While Marine air featured in the story, no Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) were deployed. In general, there was no ground combat by US forces in the narrative. Strategically, the opportunist assault by the Russians in Poland would have sparked a massive land war. Also under represented in the story was that the US Silent Service. The submarines of other fleets were remarkably more successful and survivable than American boats.

In addition, the crucial plot element of the decisive cyber-strike on US Naval computer-based systems was not realistic. In fact, it was almost magical. IRL, a crippling cyber-strike capability would be a one trick pony. Hacks are like magic tricks. A good-as or better magician once they know of a trick—can figure it out. The best Chinese and Indian software folks are no better than the best Americans. The incapacitating hack or hacks would be quickly diagnosable, and patched. Those patches would be tested, before putting sailors back in harms way. However, it was a much better story for the Navy to stop using computers, and for the US to never have figured out, “How did they do that?” Finally, given that the Chinese had suborned so many military systems, why did the Americans believe their strategic nuclear weapons had not been pwned too?

I also found the politics of the story to be very contrived. At the very beginning they were right out of the daily news feed. The Chinese pressure on nations bordering the South China Sea was realistic and contemporary. So was the Chinese pressure on Taiwan. The American response and the Russian and Iranians taking advantage of the situation in some way was also credible. It was downhill from there. . That the story ended with the South China Sea returning to the status quo ante bellum while the US devolved into a great power with a big radiation and internal refugee problem and no longer a super power. What state China was left in, which suffered more from the war going nuclear, was left to the reader’s imagination. However, I understood the purpose of the ending political situation was there to forward the authors’ theses.

"Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."
— Winston Churchill

This book was a hybrid-fiction/non-fiction work. At heart its about how unknown unknowns can topple a well ensconced leader. Putting aside the techno-bling of future air/ sea/cyber/ warfare it was pretty thin soup. Five POVs starved the characters of development. There were too few pages for them to be anything but stereotypical. Note that the authors ignored certain aspects of American war fighting doctrine and available war fighting resources to make a better war story on the Pacific’s surface. There were numerous plot holes, particularly with technology and how tech-savvy folks approach 'technical' challenges. They went against the 'realistic' grain of the overall book. There was a lot of exposition. I could not avoid thinking the basic themes of the book were pessimistic and too contrived. However, if you’re a MIL-tech geek into modern war pr0n this would be a decent beach read. Although, this book was of the category, where the individual trees were of more value than the forest.

I recommend reading Asia's Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific (my review) and Red Storm Rising to which this book owes its naval roots ahead of this book.

[Mike · Rating 1 out of 5]

I picked up the book as it seem to promise to be about future conflict & a warning about American complacency. Larry Bond this is not. It is hyper contrived to get the conflict in place. Plausible is not the watch word I would use here.

The book is as bad as _Ghost Fleet_, which also so happens to use the tagline "Novel of the Next World War."

Contrived as in the Chinese can shut down military communication with a snap of their fingers, with magic cyber weapons. That a president wouldn't be able to link in to commanders in the USA & no one really does anything about it. Or that the CCP wants to fight an overt war that leads to a nuclear exchange. They are more about covert threats and posturing. They are not stupid.

It is always a bad sign when authors try to sound technical, but come off as ignorant. "...racks of blinking miniature hard drives and plasma screens." In 2034, such things would not be used. Especially if it is meant to look super high tech. The kids on the USA ship would know immediately their phones are more sophisticated.

Add to that characters that are paper thin, it isn't a fun book to read.

The only thing I found correct was one of the Chinese admirals making a comment about the lack of imagination. This is true, as our minds, when confronted with something it doesn't know or understand will attempt to place it into a known mental model. 9/11 is seen as a lack of imagination on the part of the USA to predict or take seriously such an effort. But that thought is a couple sentences buried in a book that is simply not living up to its marketing of blurb of sounding a warning of future conflicts.