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Great Boom Ahead: Your Guide to Personal & Business Profit in the New Era of Prosperity
Predicting the decline of Japan and the re-emergence of the United States as the most powerful economy on the planet, the Harvard economist offers readers practical advice on taking advantage of the situation.
288 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1993
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About the author
Harry S. Dent Jr.
36 books76 followersHarry S. Dent, Jr. (born 1950) is an American financial newsletter writer.
Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written several books.
Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written several books.
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Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews
January 12, 2019
My own book, SSFP, offers this about this groundbreaking book:
The number of late-to-mid-career workers in an industrial economy. Harry S. Dent, Jr., Ph.D. and James V. Smith, Jr. did the groundbreaking work on this factor (Dent 1993). They found that 49-year-olds (give or take five years or so) are the engine of modern economies far more powerfully than any other age group; they drive corporate profits and stock price growth. These people are at or near their peak value (profitability on their talent) to companies, they spend far more than any other demographic group, save (and especially buy stocks) more than any other demographic, they contribute more to social health and welfare plans than any other. In contrast, people in older demographics draw from social welfare plans (health plans, especially), they directly drive down stock values by selling off their equities (both for income and to reduce equities exposure), and their productivity approaches zero due to retiring. What Dent observed in public birth records, and related to stock price movements over the last century because the economic power of these “49-ers” is proven causal to economic trends, is this: The birth rate, from which we can accurately predict 49-ers numbers, has not changed only gradually as most people assume; it changes dramatically in reaction to booms and busts existing at the time of conception; that is, when times are good, people have more babies and vice versa.
There is almost a one-to-one correlation between and the number of these 49-ers in the economy (height of the gray) and the stock price trends emerging (The Dow stock price index) as the demographic shows major changes. Birth rate is a leading indicator of the Dow, especially looking forward to the number of 49 year-olds in the economy. This strong correlation extends farther back even than the graph below shows, as far back as 1920. The Great Depression was caused by reducing demand because of a 1928 reversal of growth in the population of peak-earners. If investors begin to believe this relationship (it is causal to a strong degree), they will anticipate downturns and upturns in stock prices. This factor is strong, but impossible to model with all other factors such as oil discoveries, political changes, tax changes, and many others that are unpredictable but also very influential. But one thing is certain: This demographic factor has been increasingly a negative leading indicator of economic growth and stock prices since 2010; it will bottom out in 2022, followed by a 19-year upswing.
“We had a recession in 2008 and recovery well past 2010,” you may retort, “and Dent predicted a boom from 2001 through 2008 that did not materialize.” Yes but anomalous factors overcame and obscured this demographic factor: the 9/11 Terror Attacks and ensuing worldwide enhanced security costs, followed by a credit crisis due to mendacity in the secondary mortgage market; we kicked the can down the road in 2008 with trillions in borrowed money pumped into the economy. The lesson of Dent’s work remains: Though demographic risk, as I will call it, can be overcome by other, adequately strong, factors (low oil prices, I hope) and its strength has not yet been reliably modeled, most economists know it to be a profound and causal factor for stock price trends and to be the only such factor that can be predicted fifty years into the future. More at HSDent.com
The number of late-to-mid-career workers in an industrial economy. Harry S. Dent, Jr., Ph.D. and James V. Smith, Jr. did the groundbreaking work on this factor (Dent 1993). They found that 49-year-olds (give or take five years or so) are the engine of modern economies far more powerfully than any other age group; they drive corporate profits and stock price growth. These people are at or near their peak value (profitability on their talent) to companies, they spend far more than any other demographic group, save (and especially buy stocks) more than any other demographic, they contribute more to social health and welfare plans than any other. In contrast, people in older demographics draw from social welfare plans (health plans, especially), they directly drive down stock values by selling off their equities (both for income and to reduce equities exposure), and their productivity approaches zero due to retiring. What Dent observed in public birth records, and related to stock price movements over the last century because the economic power of these “49-ers” is proven causal to economic trends, is this: The birth rate, from which we can accurately predict 49-ers numbers, has not changed only gradually as most people assume; it changes dramatically in reaction to booms and busts existing at the time of conception; that is, when times are good, people have more babies and vice versa.
There is almost a one-to-one correlation between and the number of these 49-ers in the economy (height of the gray) and the stock price trends emerging (The Dow stock price index) as the demographic shows major changes. Birth rate is a leading indicator of the Dow, especially looking forward to the number of 49 year-olds in the economy. This strong correlation extends farther back even than the graph below shows, as far back as 1920. The Great Depression was caused by reducing demand because of a 1928 reversal of growth in the population of peak-earners. If investors begin to believe this relationship (it is causal to a strong degree), they will anticipate downturns and upturns in stock prices. This factor is strong, but impossible to model with all other factors such as oil discoveries, political changes, tax changes, and many others that are unpredictable but also very influential. But one thing is certain: This demographic factor has been increasingly a negative leading indicator of economic growth and stock prices since 2010; it will bottom out in 2022, followed by a 19-year upswing.
“We had a recession in 2008 and recovery well past 2010,” you may retort, “and Dent predicted a boom from 2001 through 2008 that did not materialize.” Yes but anomalous factors overcame and obscured this demographic factor: the 9/11 Terror Attacks and ensuing worldwide enhanced security costs, followed by a credit crisis due to mendacity in the secondary mortgage market; we kicked the can down the road in 2008 with trillions in borrowed money pumped into the economy. The lesson of Dent’s work remains: Though demographic risk, as I will call it, can be overcome by other, adequately strong, factors (low oil prices, I hope) and its strength has not yet been reliably modeled, most economists know it to be a profound and causal factor for stock price trends and to be the only such factor that can be predicted fifty years into the future. More at HSDent.com
February 11, 2010
Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
UPDATE November, 2008:
Amazing. Forget about ALL of Mr. Dent's predictions after this book was written. Here are some direct quotes from this book. And he wrote this in 1993.
Mr. Dent states very clearly on page 16 "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023. How long will the depression last? 12 to 15 years. Why? The peak of the baby boom births occurred between 1957 in 1961. The next wave of births did not turn up until 1973 to 1976, or 12 to 15 years later. So you can expect a major economic downturn, starting around 2008 and lasting to around 2022 to 2023. No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930s." Now he wrote this book in 1993! Housing "housing will grow dramatically from 2000 to 2004".
Business failure. "This is a period of reckoning for the excesses that develop in the growth boom. As they prosper, industries invest far too much and building capacity in the race for leadership in growth markets. Therefore, when consumer demands drop predictably after a peak of a generation's spending wave, the economy is left with a pool of excess capacity. Price wars result from everybody dumping product at lower prices. A shakeout occurs, leading to the survival of the fittest. Only strong companies with greatest economic scale and brand loyalties will survive these times. This shakeout process results in layoffs and bankruptcies, which generate persistently high levels of unemployment and deflation in prices. Depressions occur at very specific time in the industry cycle. They can be predicted, and even tempered, but not prevented."
1993. He predicted this in 1993.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
UPDATE November, 2008:
Amazing. Forget about ALL of Mr. Dent's predictions after this book was written. Here are some direct quotes from this book. And he wrote this in 1993.
Mr. Dent states very clearly on page 16 "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023. How long will the depression last? 12 to 15 years. Why? The peak of the baby boom births occurred between 1957 in 1961. The next wave of births did not turn up until 1973 to 1976, or 12 to 15 years later. So you can expect a major economic downturn, starting around 2008 and lasting to around 2022 to 2023. No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930s." Now he wrote this book in 1993! Housing "housing will grow dramatically from 2000 to 2004".
Business failure. "This is a period of reckoning for the excesses that develop in the growth boom. As they prosper, industries invest far too much and building capacity in the race for leadership in growth markets. Therefore, when consumer demands drop predictably after a peak of a generation's spending wave, the economy is left with a pool of excess capacity. Price wars result from everybody dumping product at lower prices. A shakeout occurs, leading to the survival of the fittest. Only strong companies with greatest economic scale and brand loyalties will survive these times. This shakeout process results in layoffs and bankruptcies, which generate persistently high levels of unemployment and deflation in prices. Depressions occur at very specific time in the industry cycle. They can be predicted, and even tempered, but not prevented."
1993. He predicted this in 1993.
August 5, 2025
Read when first issued. Helpful book. Very informative perspective on population demographics relating to mrkts.
January 4, 2024
man this a while to get through, although its dated, I believe in order to understand the future, we must too study the past - and also wanted to see how his predictions worked out in real life, as this is an early 1990s book - and he was pretty much bang on!
Am starting to see wealth cycles, and also too how we will always go through ups and downs - this book aided me with that, just remember for someone checking it out now, its dated and non-relevant info, but a good study to the past and credibility of the author, check out the polar opposite now, and his next prediction - the great depression ahead...(ouch) - but we must prepare
To Our Continued Success!
Seemy
Waseem.tv/Blog
👆🏼 P.S -
If you found this review helpful - I’d like to invite you to discover more on our blog. Where the community share some of our most important insights to level up each others knowledge 💡- from experience in studying books like this, training programs, podcasts and much more - visit the blog link above to find out more.
P.P.S 😅 - You probably noticed from my profile that I’ve reviewed a LOT of books over the years now - if you love seeking knowledge like me I’d love to connect with you further as a like minded person (send me a friend invite! 😀) - Also if you are curious - here is my preferred and recommended resource for seeking timeless wisdom - Check it out via the website invite link below 👇🏼 (You’ll be able to claim some awesome books for free 📚)
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Am starting to see wealth cycles, and also too how we will always go through ups and downs - this book aided me with that, just remember for someone checking it out now, its dated and non-relevant info, but a good study to the past and credibility of the author, check out the polar opposite now, and his next prediction - the great depression ahead...(ouch) - but we must prepare
To Our Continued Success!
Seemy
Waseem.tv/Blog
👆🏼 P.S -
If you found this review helpful - I’d like to invite you to discover more on our blog. Where the community share some of our most important insights to level up each others knowledge 💡- from experience in studying books like this, training programs, podcasts and much more - visit the blog link above to find out more.
P.P.S 😅 - You probably noticed from my profile that I’ve reviewed a LOT of books over the years now - if you love seeking knowledge like me I’d love to connect with you further as a like minded person (send me a friend invite! 😀) - Also if you are curious - here is my preferred and recommended resource for seeking timeless wisdom - Check it out via the website invite link below 👇🏼 (You’ll be able to claim some awesome books for free 📚)
https://Waseem.tv/GoodReadsBookInvite
June 6, 2016
Completed the abridged version of this book on tape. I have his newer books I am currently reading so I wanted to see if his forecasts from 1992 was correct. Lo and behold - he was spot on! He has been right in the past, so he is worth listening to about the future.
October 9, 2012
Helps to understand how and why certain things happened in the past, to better prepare for our glorious and continuous future.
February 5, 2016
A very good book on the generations and how they impact the markets.
March 21, 2016
Some good ideas.
Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews