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The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty
Have you ever wondered what happens in the command control of a global macro hedge fund when US stock markets plunge 35 percent in just three weeks? Welcome to the mind of Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments.
As tragic events unfolded around the world, the pandemic ruptured the sequence of price action and devoured financial markets like a black hole. Through Gurevich’s personal narrative and the team’s actual Slack messages, The Trades of March 2020 follows their frenetic efforts to survive the crisis.
From the first terrifying days of loss, both personal and professional, to the team’s redoubled attempts to identify emerging opportunities, this account of crucial, in-the-moment decisions is a faithful record of the trading moves made in the unprecedented month of March 2020.
Discover the thinking and investment philosophy that led HonTe to survive and ultimately thrive during one of the most extraordinary challenges of our time.
As tragic events unfolded around the world, the pandemic ruptured the sequence of price action and devoured financial markets like a black hole. Through Gurevich’s personal narrative and the team’s actual Slack messages, The Trades of March 2020 follows their frenetic efforts to survive the crisis.
From the first terrifying days of loss, both personal and professional, to the team’s redoubled attempts to identify emerging opportunities, this account of crucial, in-the-moment decisions is a faithful record of the trading moves made in the unprecedented month of March 2020.
Discover the thinking and investment philosophy that led HonTe to survive and ultimately thrive during one of the most extraordinary challenges of our time.
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
March 20, 2023
I cannot recommend this book with a clear conscience.
It gives an insight into the operational side of a macro hedge fund at a time of market turmoil,
which is something that those of us outside the industry will never get to observe at first hand.
The book is a sequel, of sorts, to the author's earlier book, "The Next Perfect Trade."
I am not a professional investor, although I have followed the markets for a long time.
Longer than most people active in the industry today.
I felt that the depth of analysis which was used to direct Gurevich's trading was fairly shallow.
To an extent, it's really only necessary to understand what the marginal investor in any given market thinks. If that investor thinks along the same lines as Gurevich, he will make money.
Having a sophisticated, 'fundamental' analysis will probably lead to losses, so I acknowledge that
the approach taken may be the best for this fund.
Anyway, I got the paperback version, to be able to see the coloured charts better. I wish I hadn't, and had got the kindle version instead.
The book is pretty thick with half the space taken up with transcripts of Slack chats, which seem mainly to be about the practical difficulties of executing the trades. Important for the author, but of no realistic interest to the ordinary investor who rarely has to worry about whether the market has enough liquidity to execute a trade comprising hundreds of futures contracts.
There are a lot of analogies to cosmology, and physics more generally. The metaphor is about likening trading to physics, where mostly Newton's laws work perfectly well but in extreme circumstances, of energy or size, one has to use a new paradigm (relativity, quantum mechanics, etc.). The idea is that when markets are pushed to extreme the efficient market hypothesis breaks down. I am sure there is some truth in this observation, but the book did not really provide me with any equivalent of a new theory to apply to make money that these extremes.
One, perhaps trivial, example of an interesting comment was about the Mexican peso.
Gurevich comments that it tends to trade like a petro currency, even though Mexico now is a net importer of energy. In other words, it's what other traders believe that matters, not what the underlying economics are.
It gives an insight into the operational side of a macro hedge fund at a time of market turmoil,
which is something that those of us outside the industry will never get to observe at first hand.
The book is a sequel, of sorts, to the author's earlier book, "The Next Perfect Trade."
I am not a professional investor, although I have followed the markets for a long time.
Longer than most people active in the industry today.
I felt that the depth of analysis which was used to direct Gurevich's trading was fairly shallow.
To an extent, it's really only necessary to understand what the marginal investor in any given market thinks. If that investor thinks along the same lines as Gurevich, he will make money.
Having a sophisticated, 'fundamental' analysis will probably lead to losses, so I acknowledge that
the approach taken may be the best for this fund.
Anyway, I got the paperback version, to be able to see the coloured charts better. I wish I hadn't, and had got the kindle version instead.
The book is pretty thick with half the space taken up with transcripts of Slack chats, which seem mainly to be about the practical difficulties of executing the trades. Important for the author, but of no realistic interest to the ordinary investor who rarely has to worry about whether the market has enough liquidity to execute a trade comprising hundreds of futures contracts.
There are a lot of analogies to cosmology, and physics more generally. The metaphor is about likening trading to physics, where mostly Newton's laws work perfectly well but in extreme circumstances, of energy or size, one has to use a new paradigm (relativity, quantum mechanics, etc.). The idea is that when markets are pushed to extreme the efficient market hypothesis breaks down. I am sure there is some truth in this observation, but the book did not really provide me with any equivalent of a new theory to apply to make money that these extremes.
One, perhaps trivial, example of an interesting comment was about the Mexican peso.
Gurevich comments that it tends to trade like a petro currency, even though Mexico now is a net importer of energy. In other words, it's what other traders believe that matters, not what the underlying economics are.
February 4, 2022
A rare look behind the curtains at a hedge fund in the midst of a global economic crisis, this book gives you a unique perspective and opportunity to listen into the chats and thinking behind one fund’s trades. Written by, full disclosure, a friend of mine from college (he was a graduate student while I was an undergraduate at the University of Chicago) I’ve known Alex for decades. But reading his book has given me new insights into his professional life. And new insights into how hedge funds and traders today operate and think about global markets.
I’ve worked for investment banks in the past (in a technology capacity for one of the biggest investment banks in the world) so I’ve seen some of this before. But even having worked there the decisions and trading activity of traders like Alex and his co-workers remained opaque and more than a bit mysterious. As an investor with a small portfolio I’ve over the years shifted nearly all by my family’s investments into a diverse but fairly boring portfolio of funds, etfs, and bonds. So I don’t follow the markets daily trends nor do I trade with the leverage and volatility that hedge fund traders do. As such reading this book was fascinating for me. I’m sure however I missed some nuances in the flurry of charts and trading lingo.
I docked one star for a small but sometimes frustrating technical point about the editing of the book - it has a lot of transcripts from their internal chats and in many places these are repeated at times a few pages apart so as you are reading it can feel like you have just read something because you often have in fact just read the same transcript. And relatedly some of the embedded charts in the transcripts are hard to read.
But that is largely a minor point in a book that otherwise illuminates a business that all too rarely is made available for the general public to understand. This isn’t a book that will give you stock tips, nor is it for the casual trader. But for anyone it is an invaluable insight into how hedge fund traders see the world and how their actions and constraints in turn influence the global economy.
I’ve worked for investment banks in the past (in a technology capacity for one of the biggest investment banks in the world) so I’ve seen some of this before. But even having worked there the decisions and trading activity of traders like Alex and his co-workers remained opaque and more than a bit mysterious. As an investor with a small portfolio I’ve over the years shifted nearly all by my family’s investments into a diverse but fairly boring portfolio of funds, etfs, and bonds. So I don’t follow the markets daily trends nor do I trade with the leverage and volatility that hedge fund traders do. As such reading this book was fascinating for me. I’m sure however I missed some nuances in the flurry of charts and trading lingo.
I docked one star for a small but sometimes frustrating technical point about the editing of the book - it has a lot of transcripts from their internal chats and in many places these are repeated at times a few pages apart so as you are reading it can feel like you have just read something because you often have in fact just read the same transcript. And relatedly some of the embedded charts in the transcripts are hard to read.
But that is largely a minor point in a book that otherwise illuminates a business that all too rarely is made available for the general public to understand. This isn’t a book that will give you stock tips, nor is it for the casual trader. But for anyone it is an invaluable insight into how hedge fund traders see the world and how their actions and constraints in turn influence the global economy.
June 15, 2022
Certainly gives insights into the way a hedge fund operates but limited insight into the thinking behind what drove the trades. Fairly technical in nature if you are not a pretty experienced investor.
Would have loved to hear more around how people were feeling and what they were thinking too much space taken up with Slack chat screenshots which in the book were too small to even be able to look at many of the graphs and spreadsheets.
Enjoyed it a lot less than I envisaged I would not sure if you are not a Hedge Fund manager if I could recommend it
Would have loved to hear more around how people were feeling and what they were thinking too much space taken up with Slack chat screenshots which in the book were too small to even be able to look at many of the graphs and spreadsheets.
Enjoyed it a lot less than I envisaged I would not sure if you are not a Hedge Fund manager if I could recommend it
December 14, 2022
I know nothing about the world of financial trading, stock markets, hedge funds, etc. I read this book because the author is a friend (full disclosure), but I didn't expect to be so thoroughly drawn into what turns out to be a dramatically compelling story. Beginning with noting he collapsed from the stress of guiding his company through the first month of the COVID19 pandemic, the author takes us through the daily furor of navigating a crisis he compares to flying through a black hole. With actual screenshots of Slack conversations between the company executives, interwoven with deft narrative from the author, the book gave me a window into the human side of this world. I loved seeing experienced traders commenting on the unreality of the market behavior and I learned so much about how the day to day of this profession and industry works. For all of that, it's a fast, fascinating read. Highly recommend.
Read
June 21, 2022What an excellent fly on the wall, day by day, trade by trade review of one of the most interesting and yet challenging times in modern finance.
The book brings out some of the thought processes of both Alex and the team, illustrating the dynamism of the group, the challenges and the opportunities they managed to capitalise on. This is not a "how we did it ego trip" this is a candid, open and frank summary that balances the opportunity against the gradually unfolding human tragedy that was the start of 2020 when we all learned about covid19.
A great read.
The book brings out some of the thought processes of both Alex and the team, illustrating the dynamism of the group, the challenges and the opportunities they managed to capitalise on. This is not a "how we did it ego trip" this is a candid, open and frank summary that balances the opportunity against the gradually unfolding human tragedy that was the start of 2020 when we all learned about covid19.
A great read.
January 23, 2022
Informative but too Mechanical
I found this book a rare insight into the macro trading world. The author has provided lots of information but I found the book really mechanical and lacking in personality. Would still recommend to trading die hards.
I found this book a rare insight into the macro trading world. The author has provided lots of information but I found the book really mechanical and lacking in personality. Would still recommend to trading die hards.
April 19, 2023
So much potential but an utter disaster. This is not how serious macro traders operate. Next to no discussion on timeline of world events or detailed analysis behind the trades. Reads like an operational trade blotter the author is using to brag during a year everyone did well
June 13, 2025
“Have you ever wondered what is going on in the command center of a sophisticated hedge fund? Have you ever wanted to be a fly on the wall of a CIO’s office when the markets are melting down?” 6.
Alex Gurevich gives us exactly that. The Trades of March 2020 is a behind-the-scenes look into his Slack chat logs during the most chaotic month in recent market history. To my knowledge, there is nothing close to a book like this. The unparalleled access to a HF during probably the most stressful time in the 21st Century to be a HFM is remarkable.
For someone like me who is incredibly interested in trading and understanding how funds work, but with no FT experience yet, this book was extremely valuable. I felt Gurevich helped transfer some of his wisdom (and battle scars) to me, the reader. For that alone, this book is a must-read.
There are a few bits of wisdom that I think were very helpful to me and are worth repeating:
1. Gurevich’s idea of a dominant trade, better elaborated on in his book The Next Perfect Trade, is put to practice throughout the book. He is willing to admit when he makes mistakes here, yet always tries to frame trades through this lens.
1. For those unfamiliar, the idea of a dominant trade is that if A —> B, then you should bet on B, not A (even if A is more intuitive) because B happens in a wider variety of scenarios
2. While he doesn’t explicitly mention reflexivity (if interested, check Soros on Soros (which I reviewed here) or Alchemy of Finance (which I haven't yet finished), his trading philosophy is deeply rooted in believing markets have a reflexive nature to them. This trading style is rather fun and I feel leads the reader to get a deeper understanding of market dynamics—even if it isn’t always successful
3. The idea of “Psychologically Neutral Positioning” is intuitive and helpful. Gurevich believes that usually the correct position size is one in which you do not care about daily price action. If the price goes up, you’ve made money quickly and early and can move on. If the price falls, you can add to your position and profit further. This is pretty related to a lot of the mean-reversion trade sizing that Sinclair talks about in Volatility Trading, yet Gurevich does it in a more intuitive way.
Now, the elephant in the room is that Gurevich was unbelievably lucky in March 2020. He does admit as much, but it is rather astounding to me what appeared to happen. Gurevich had been a massive bond bull for many, many years before 2020. In 2019, Gurevich believed the economy was weakening and bought long bonds and options on bonds expiring in March/April 2020 that would be profitable if rates fell a lot. His economic thesis was undoubtedly wrong (the economic data up until the pandemic came in hot), but COVID seemed to have bailed him out of these positions, causing him to make a ton of money. One can only imagine there is a reverse Gurevich who had a correct economic view and got torched by the pandemic. While Gurevich was “super long gamma and the market [was] moving in [his] favor so rapidly that [he couldn’t] take profits fast enough to stay under [his] risk limits,” there was likely another fund that took the other side and was getting blown up by this shock. I guess this goes to show that position sizing matters and controlling tail risk is very important!
Gurevich is also rather hilarious. His personality really shines through here and I really enjoyed getting to know him better! He captures the emotional toll of managing risk under extreme pressure with honesty and insight as well.
Now, despite all the positives of the book and my deep recommendation for any practitioner to read this, there are some drawbacks. First, according to the reviews, it appears if you order the physical book, the Slack screenshots are very difficult to read. I read this on Kindle and still had some trouble reading some parts of the Slack conversations, but found it mostly readable. Because of this, I recommend reading this electronically.
Second, Gurevich seems to have some difficulty understanding who his audience is. The book alternates between advanced macro discussions and basic explanations of obvious concepts. The concepts discussed in the Slack are advanced and there is a lot of nuance that would be missed by someone that isn’t experienced and hasn’t either read a lot of macro or worked in macro. I have read a fair bit of macro and still found myself not understanding parts of it (though I am, obviously, inexperienced!). The book is often written as if it is geared towards beginners with little to no knowledge, but I find it hard to believe that these readers would be able to enjoy the book thoroughly. Beginners will likely be overwhelmed and experienced readers might feel condescended to. The book tries to straddle the line between primer and practitioner-level, yet sometimes misses the mark for both.
That being said, I think this book is a must-read. It is a one of a kind look into the inner workings of a hedge fund and I gained a lot from Gurevich. I hope he writes another book! (Also, reading this during the volatility in April 2025 made the book wayyy more fun.)
Alex Gurevich gives us exactly that. The Trades of March 2020 is a behind-the-scenes look into his Slack chat logs during the most chaotic month in recent market history. To my knowledge, there is nothing close to a book like this. The unparalleled access to a HF during probably the most stressful time in the 21st Century to be a HFM is remarkable.
For someone like me who is incredibly interested in trading and understanding how funds work, but with no FT experience yet, this book was extremely valuable. I felt Gurevich helped transfer some of his wisdom (and battle scars) to me, the reader. For that alone, this book is a must-read.
There are a few bits of wisdom that I think were very helpful to me and are worth repeating:
1. Gurevich’s idea of a dominant trade, better elaborated on in his book The Next Perfect Trade, is put to practice throughout the book. He is willing to admit when he makes mistakes here, yet always tries to frame trades through this lens.
1. For those unfamiliar, the idea of a dominant trade is that if A —> B, then you should bet on B, not A (even if A is more intuitive) because B happens in a wider variety of scenarios
2. While he doesn’t explicitly mention reflexivity (if interested, check Soros on Soros (which I reviewed here) or Alchemy of Finance (which I haven't yet finished), his trading philosophy is deeply rooted in believing markets have a reflexive nature to them. This trading style is rather fun and I feel leads the reader to get a deeper understanding of market dynamics—even if it isn’t always successful
3. The idea of “Psychologically Neutral Positioning” is intuitive and helpful. Gurevich believes that usually the correct position size is one in which you do not care about daily price action. If the price goes up, you’ve made money quickly and early and can move on. If the price falls, you can add to your position and profit further. This is pretty related to a lot of the mean-reversion trade sizing that Sinclair talks about in Volatility Trading, yet Gurevich does it in a more intuitive way.
Now, the elephant in the room is that Gurevich was unbelievably lucky in March 2020. He does admit as much, but it is rather astounding to me what appeared to happen. Gurevich had been a massive bond bull for many, many years before 2020. In 2019, Gurevich believed the economy was weakening and bought long bonds and options on bonds expiring in March/April 2020 that would be profitable if rates fell a lot. His economic thesis was undoubtedly wrong (the economic data up until the pandemic came in hot), but COVID seemed to have bailed him out of these positions, causing him to make a ton of money. One can only imagine there is a reverse Gurevich who had a correct economic view and got torched by the pandemic. While Gurevich was “super long gamma and the market [was] moving in [his] favor so rapidly that [he couldn’t] take profits fast enough to stay under [his] risk limits,” there was likely another fund that took the other side and was getting blown up by this shock. I guess this goes to show that position sizing matters and controlling tail risk is very important!
Gurevich is also rather hilarious. His personality really shines through here and I really enjoyed getting to know him better! He captures the emotional toll of managing risk under extreme pressure with honesty and insight as well.
Now, despite all the positives of the book and my deep recommendation for any practitioner to read this, there are some drawbacks. First, according to the reviews, it appears if you order the physical book, the Slack screenshots are very difficult to read. I read this on Kindle and still had some trouble reading some parts of the Slack conversations, but found it mostly readable. Because of this, I recommend reading this electronically.
Second, Gurevich seems to have some difficulty understanding who his audience is. The book alternates between advanced macro discussions and basic explanations of obvious concepts. The concepts discussed in the Slack are advanced and there is a lot of nuance that would be missed by someone that isn’t experienced and hasn’t either read a lot of macro or worked in macro. I have read a fair bit of macro and still found myself not understanding parts of it (though I am, obviously, inexperienced!). The book is often written as if it is geared towards beginners with little to no knowledge, but I find it hard to believe that these readers would be able to enjoy the book thoroughly. Beginners will likely be overwhelmed and experienced readers might feel condescended to. The book tries to straddle the line between primer and practitioner-level, yet sometimes misses the mark for both.
That being said, I think this book is a must-read. It is a one of a kind look into the inner workings of a hedge fund and I gained a lot from Gurevich. I hope he writes another book! (Also, reading this during the volatility in April 2025 made the book wayyy more fun.)
May 23, 2022
as far as I can judge, it's a pretty accurate description of the work/thought process of a macro HF manager. interesting insights.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews