Asked why he is on TV so much, Buffett responded that he likes having the electronic record, so there is no chance of him being misquoted or misunderstood.
Over the last 50 years, they have consistently sought to own either all or part of good businesses, bought at bargain prices.
Buffett was educated at the University of Nebraska. Afterward, he enrolled at Columbia Business School. He went there to learn from the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. Buffett became Graham’s star student. Afterward, Graham took him on at his investment partnership, Graham Newman. Buffett used what he learned from that experience to start his own partnership back in Omaha. He did phenomenally well from the very beginning. A $10,000 investment in his partnership in 1956 grew to $200,000 by 1969. That’s a 25.9% compounded annualized return. Incredibly, the partnership never had a down year, even though the market had six down years during that period.
Insurance companies collect premiums, of which a significant portion goes into reserves to pay future claims. This reserve (the “float”) earns money for Berkshire, leveraging the company’s return on capital. If you can operate in a way where that float is generated at a low cost and you can grow it over time, you have built a wealth-compounding machine.
If you generate float at 3% per annum and buy businesses that earn 13% per annum with the proceeds of that float, we have figured out that’s a pretty good position to be in.”
During the subprime mortgage crisis, Buffett and Munger went on an investing spree.
Berkshire vs. S&P 500 (or 751,113% vs. 11,196%) Since Buffett took over Berkshire 50 years ago, its per-share book value has grown from $19 to $146,186. That’s a rate of 19.4% compounded annually.
Graham breaks the art of investing down into two simple variables—price and value. Value is what a business is worth. Price is what you have to pay to get it.
knowing your limitations and the limitations of your information seems to be the key. Or as Keynes said, “I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong.”
Buffett and Munger basically shot them all down:
Real Estate
Munger: “Everyone talks about the big money made in realestate, but they forget to talk about the big money lost in real estate.”
Foreign Currencies
Munger: “It’s hard enough to understand the culture you’ve been raised in, much less someone else’s.”
Leverage
Buffett: “You can leverage up to your eyeballs, but you may not make it across the river.”
Hard Assets
Munger: “Someone figured out the Van Gogh painting that sold for $40 million last year yielded a 13% compounded annualized return. Berkshire shareholders have done much better.”
buy great businesses with excellent management at a fair to bargain price and leave them alone.
Golden Arches and The Big Store offer great lessons on business.
He likened the problem to eating an extra piece of toast each day. One hundred extra calories per day doesn’t seem like much, and it provides immediate pleasure. However, after a month, you’ve consumed an extra 3,000 calories and gained one pound. Keep it up and eventually you will have a significant problem.
“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
Buffett noted that many investors illogically become euphoric when stock prices rise and are downcast when they fall. This makes no more sense than if you bought some hamburger one day, returned the next day to buy more but at a higher price, and then felt euphoric because you had bought some cheaper the day before.
Advice to MBA Graduates
Buffett: “Do what you enjoy the most. Work for people you admire. You can’t miss if you do that.”
When asked how he spend a day, Buffett responded that he tap dances into work (obviously, he’s following his own career advice), reads a lot, talks on the phone a bit, and that’s about it.
Munger also claimed that much can be discerned from “the paper record.” The documented record of how people have behaved over many years has far more predictive power than a personal interview. Buffett added that this is why they don’t hire fresh MBA graduates. There is no record of on-the-job performance.
Berkshire’s position in U.K.-based Guinness is unhedged. Buffett claimed that currency hedging would be not only expensive and time-consuming but unnecessary as well since Guinness itself already earns money in many different currencies. In the long run, the currency factors should wash out.
When asked for great investment books to read, Buffett cited The Intelligent Investor (as always) but then downplayed the idea that investment secrets are hidden in books. Investing is not that complicated, he explained. Other than learning accounting, which is the language of business, the real key to investment success is to have the right mindset with a temperament compatible with those principles. As long as you stay within your circle of competence (and know where the perimeter is), you will do fine.
He said it is Wall Street nonsense to say that something that earns a lumpy 20% to 80% is “riskier” than something that earns a predictable 5% year after year.
“We go where the probabilities are good.”
(“Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut.”) and to keep things simple (“I’d rather multiply by three than by pi.”).
Each year, Buffett and Munger toss cold water on hot academic theories.
‘Listen to your customers’ as a business principle does not require a 300-page book.”
Buffett said, when accounting appears confusing, avoid the company. The confusion may well be intentional and reveal the character of the management.
“It’s extraordinary how resistant some are to learning.” “Especially when it’s in their own interest to do so,” Buffett continued.
When Buffett asked if he had anything else to add, Munger said, “No.” Buffett quipped, “Charlie does not get paid by the word.”
Every year, Buffett gets the “What-if-you-get-hit-by-a-truck?” question. Munger asked rhetorically, “Will Coca-Cola stop selling Cokes because Warren is no longer here? Will Gillette stop selling razor blades because Warren is no longer here?”
Diversification makes no sense for someone who knows what they are doing. “To buy number one on your list equally with number 37 strikes us as madness. Diversification is a protection against ignorance, a confession that you do not know the businesses you own.” Buffett claimed that three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life and would serve you much better than 100 average businesses.
soft drinks, candy, shaving, chewing gum. “There’s not a whole lot of technology going into the art of the chew.”
Buffett launched into an intriguing thought problem he called “the ovarian lottery.” You are to be born in 24 hours. You are also to write all the rules that will govern the society in which you will live. However, you do not know if you will be born bright or retarded, black or white, male or female, rich or poor, able or disabled. How would you write the rules? Buffett said how one comes out in this lottery is far more important than anything else to one’s future. He and Munger were huge winners having been born American (“in Afghanistan, we wouldn’t be worth a damn”), male (at a time when many women could only be nurses and teachers), white (when opportunities for minorities were slim) and good at valuing businesses (in a system that pays for that like crazy). Buffett noted it is important to take care of the non-winners of the ovarian lottery. Therefore, some sort of taxation is in order. Given that few people with money and talent are turned away from free enterprise under the current system, the 28% capital gains tax is probably okay.
Quality People—Buffett said he looks for a manager who bats .400 and loves it. Munger noted there are many wonderful people and many awful people. Avoid the awful. Stick to those who take their promises seriously. Good Businesses—Go with those that are understandable with a sustainable edge. The pond you choose is far more important than how well you swim.
Despite the excess, Buffett said the real sin is mediocre management. That is what costs the shareholders money. It is almost impossible to overpay for good management. For example, Coca-Cola’s market value was $4 billion and stagnant when Roberto Goizueta took over in 1981. Today, the market value is $150 billion. The right manager can have an absolutely huge impact. Find people with brains, energy and integrity, and you can own the world.
Berkshire takes on very large exposures (up to $1 billion) with its supercat writings. Buffett explained that, while such exposures can be large dollar amounts, Berkshire knows exactly what they are. Munger noted that a billion-dollar loss would be just 2.5% of liquid assets. The real supercat risks are those borne unwittingly by insurance companies that could be wiped out by an unforeseen event. Buffett recalled Twentieth Century Industries, which all but went broke after the Northridge Earthquake. Buffett intoned, “Surprises in insurance are never symmetrical. They are all bad.”
He quoted Patton: “It’s an honor to die for your country. Make sure the other guys get the honor.”
Currently, Buffett sees no bargains among large cap stocks. When he cannot find things to buy, the money piles up. When he does find something, he piles in.
technology and pharmaceuticals are two big areas in which he has not participated.
He noted there are some 400 companies in the U.S. that earn more than $200 million in after-tax profit. In five years, the list may grow to 450–475.
Similarly, biotech stocks were all the rage five years ago, yet how many are making $200 million today? In a capitalist society, everyone is watching you. Competition is fierce. The $3 billion market cap company is rare. He concluded, “You want to think about the math of it.”
The bigger the moat, the less great management is needed. As Peter Lynch has said, “Find a business any idiot could run because eventually one will.”
Same food. No important difference in clothes, cars, TVs.
After you have enough for daily life, all that matters is your health and those you love. Likewise in work, what really matters is that you enjoy it and the people with which you work.
Currently, 6%–7% of investment funds in the U.S. are indexed.
Buffett said what really matters is share of market and share of mind. Coca-Cola’s market share is marvelous, and its share of mind is overwhelmingly favorable with a ubiquity of good feeling. The keys to analyzing Coca-Cola’s economic progress are l) unit cases sold (more is better), and 2) number of shares outstanding (the fewer the better).
(Munger interjected that 10–15 year projections can tune out a lot of noise.)
Buffett returned to a concept he has brought up numerous times, relating that “if share of mind exists, the market will follow.”
Low-cost float has turbo-charged Berkshire’s returns. Furthermore, Buffett has grown the float incredibly from $17 million in 1967 to $27 billion at year-end 2000.
the value of American business will grow roughly at the rate of GDP growth. That growth, in turn, should probably be around 5% a year with a couple of points a year of inflation as well.
Munger asserted, “It’s stupid the way we extrapolate the past.
Buffett advised younger attendees to start saving early. He acknowledged that he was fortunate that his dad paid for his education. As a result, he was able to save $10,000 by the time he was 21 —a huge head start. He noted that it’s much easier to save during your teen years when your parents are taking care of your financial obligations. He surmised that every dollar saved then is worth $20. He also suggested that getting knowledge about business has a similar compounding effect. He recommended learning about local businesses—which ones are good and why, which ones went out of business, etc. As you go, you’ll build a database in your mind that is going to pay off over time.
He observed that if you were going to buy a parachute, you wouldn’t necessarily take the low bid.
(Buffett joked that buying the Buffalo News was Munger’s idea: Munger was stuck in Buffalo during a blizzard, and he called Buffett to ask what he should do. So Buffett told him to go out and buy a paper.)
Imagine a genie comes to a 17 year old and offers to get him any car he wants. However, there is one catch—whatever car he chooses he must make it last a lifetime. Well, you can imagine that the young man would read the owner’s manual 10 times, would change the oil twice as often as suggested, etc. to help that car last 50 years. In the same way, Buffett continued, we each receive one body and one mind for a lifetime. You cannot repair them at age 60. You must maintain them. One’s greatest asset is one’s self. Develop your mind and good health habits when you are young, and it will enhance your life. If not, you may have a wreck at age 70.
Wall Street loves their investment banking fees.
Munger noted that the fraud group percentage is high for those who talk “EBIDTA.”
Berkshire vastly prefers businesses where you get the cash up front (like insurance).
Munger noted that one of the great inventions of all time was double-entry bookkeeping by an Italian monk.
Munger shared that it helps to have a passionate interest on knowing why things are happening. That cast of mind over a long time, he asserted, will improve its ability to cope with reality. Those that don’t ask why are destined for failure, even those with very high IQs. Buffett noted that lots of folks with very high IQs fail financially.
By selling to Berkshire, Clayton will have access to capital and Berkshire’s AAA credit rating.
Asked if he recommended any books on accounting. Munger complimented Buffett’s command of accounting, saying, “You might as well ask him if he has any good books on breathing.”
Buffett railed against all sorts of expenses being hidden in the footnotes: “Why not put everything in the footnotes, then you could have just two lines to report: revenue and income?”
He cautioned, “There’s seldom one cockroach in the kitchen.”
Buffett spoke against the Bush plan to eliminate double taxation of dividends. If approved, Buffett could dividend out hundreds of millions of dollars to himself, effectively lowering his tax rate to less than 1%, while his secretary continued to pay taxes at a 30% rate. Such a differential could only breed resentment.
Munger asserted that their ability to take constructive criticism has been a key factor in Berkshire’s success
Wall Street Journal and Fortune as favorite sources and included the usual corporate filings.
he never reads analysts’ reports.
all intelligent people base decisions on opportunity costs.
the “market is there to serve you, not to instruct you.”
Munger noted the common error is not thinking through the consequences of the consequences.
While intelligence is helpful, Buffett and Munger asserted that having the proper temperament was far more critical.
business does not require high math, and it may even be a disadvantage to know high math. Buffett concluded with a smile, “When my mother sang me songs about compound interest, there was no need to go further.”
Buffett noted that most people underestimate how important good habits are. Munger added that it is critical to “avoid dumb stuff” like going to the race track, risking AIDS, experimenting with cocaine or getting into debt. He suggested developing good character and good mental habits and to learn as you go.
Buffett said he receives letters every day from people in financial trouble, and he tells many of them to take bankruptcy since they’ll never be able to catch up.
He warned that it is very tempting to spend more than you make. Buffett also recommended hanging around people better than you. Munger added, “If that causes problems with your peers, the hell with them.” Buffett concluded with the story of the woman who turned 103 and was asked, “What do you like about being 103?” She responded, “No peer pressure.”
Some 3,000 to 4,000 tons of gold go from South Africa to Fort Knox annually and do not do much along the way.
California, for example, has had 25 6.0 earthquakes in the last 100 years.
Missouri, which has had three quakes of greater than eight on the Richter Scale. Buffett observed that if you take a centuries-long view, you will see that extraordinary things have happened.
He believes that a good school system is like virginity: it can be preserved but not restored. As a country with $40,000 of per capita income, we have the resources. To the extent the rich go to private schools and the poor go to “armed camps,” we create a two-tier system of unequal opportunity.
Buffett concluded, “We’re a long way from Jimmy Stewart in It’s a Wonderful Life.”
Munger noted that Berkshire does no asset allocation. They merely go where the opportunities are regardless of categories, and that is totally out of step with modern investment theory.
In 1790, there were four million people in America, 290 million in China and 100 million in Europe. Yet 215 years later, America has 30% of the world’s GDP. It is an incredible success story.
He also said Berkshire needs to keep a minimum of $10 billion around in reserves for mega-cat insurance policies written. So with around $40 billion on hand currently, Berkshire would need to invest $30 billion over the next three years. Well, not quite. Berkshire will also throw off more than $10 billion in cash annually, so that’s another $30 billion over three years for Buffett to invest.
“What happens after Warren is gone?” Buffett noted that there are three obvious successors, and it will be up to the board. 3 He referred to Wal-Mart as an example of “personalized institutional legacy,” where the company has become even stronger since the founder passed on.
Munger emphasized that Berkshire does not train executives, it finds them. He said CEO Eitan Wertheimer’s character and talent jumped off the page. Munger concluded, “If a mountain like Mount Everest stands up, you don’t have to be genius to see it’s a high mountain.”
“To what extent do the managers think like owners?” According to Buffett, the job of the board is to 1) get the right CEO, 2) keep the CEO from overreaching and 3) exercise independent judgment on acquisitions.
There are three boxes—“in,” “out” and “too hard.” It is important to know what is too hard for you and stick to what you do best. He quoted IBM CEO Tom Watson, “I’m smart in spots.” Buffett noted that if you’re fast, you can run the 100 meters for the gold medal. You don’t have to throw the shot put.
Buffett noted that, as a general rule, he ignores what is hot.
“Clayton is so good, it’s hard to find No. 2.” While it will take a few years, Munger sees manufactured housing eventually taking a much larger share—“it’s so logical.”
Buffett noted that Berkshire is the No. 1 mega-catastrophe underwriter in the world. Prices are up a lot. But are the exposures up even more?
Buffett then thought even bigger. Katrina was a $60 billion event. Berkshire took a $3.4 billion hit. Buffett theorized that there could be a disaster as great as four times Katrina, or $250 billion. In that event, Buffett estimated that Berkshire’s exposure would be 4%, or $10 billion. For that reason, Buffett wants to maintain at least a $10 billion cash position.
Buffett noted that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is not a particularly good measure of inflation. First, “core” inflation excludes food and energy. “Not much is more core!” Buffett exclaimed. Second, since CPI uses a rent equivalent factor for living costs, it hasn’t captured the rising cost of housing. In sum, the CPI understates inflation.
He cited Jon Alter’s book, The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope
He noted he would own Coca-Cola whether it was based in the U.S. or in Amsterdam.