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Hậu khủng hoảng - Bảy bí quyết bảo toàn của cải trong thời gian tới
Trong tâm trí người bình thường chúng ta, hơn 12 năm qua có lẽ vẫn chưa hết kinh hoàng và đau đớn từ khủng hoảng tài chính toàn cầu năm 2008! Gần như chỉ qua một đêm, hàng triệu con người bình thường với những khoản vay bình thường để xây dựng cuộc sống ấm no bình thường — vay mua nhà, vay vốn làm ăn, người về hưu gửi tiết kiệm lấy lãi để đắp đổi thu nhập… — đột nhiên phải gánh chịu lãi suất khoản vay điều chỉnh tăng chóng mặt, còn lãi suất tiết kiệm rớt theo chiều ngược lại…
Hơn 12 năm qua, nói đến thị trường tài chính, hầu hết dân thường đều như chim sợ cành cong! Mọi người hết sức chật vật sinh tồn, và mơ hồ tin rằng các ngân hàng trung ương trên thế giới đã nỗ lực ngăn chặn được một sự sụp đổ hoàn toàn của các thị trường vốn, khôi phục tăng trưởng tự-duy-trì. Kinh tế toàn cầu đang trên đường phục hồi, có lẽ vậy! Và ai mà không muốn tin như vậy.
Nhưng cái mà người bình thường dễ nhìn ra nhất là bong bóng bất động sản, chẳng phải chúng lại đang vào chu kỳ trương phồng ở khắp nơi nữa sao? Và giá vàng liên tục lập những đỉnh mới!
Ngay trang đầu giới thiệu, "Hậu khủng hoảng" đưa ra cảnh báo chắc nịch rằng cuộc khủng hoảng 2008 chưa bao giờ thực sự kết thúc! Và như trận Xích Bích chỉ còn chờ gió đông, tác giả James Rickards khẳng định chỉ cần có một trong những chất xúc tác sau đây là củi khô bùng cháy: chiến tranh, bất ổn chính trị, và… đại dịch!
Đại dịch? Chúng ta ở trong đại dịch Covid-19 hai năm rồi!
Trong cuốn sách thực tế nhất của mình cho đến nay, chuyên gia tài chính và cố vấn đầu tư James Rickards chỉ ra cho chúng ta thấy nguyên nhân gây ra cơn sốt giá giả tạo trên thị trường tài chính toàn cầu, chứng khoán và các tài sản tài chính đang được thổi giá như thế nào — và những nhà đầu tư thông minh có thể làm gì để bảo vệ tài sản của mình.
Có lên ắt có xuống. Những đỉnh cao chóng mặt của thị trường chứng khoán không thể tiếp tục vô thời hạn — nhất là vì tài sản đã được thổi giá tăng giả tạo bởi sự lạc quan của giới đầu tư thời chính quyền Trump, lãi suất thấp khủng khiếp và kinh tế học hành vi thâm nhập vào đời sống tài chính. Giới quyền thế tiền tệ đã chuẩn bị sẵn sàng, nhưng những nhà đầu tư bình thường phải làm gì?
James Rickards, tác giả những cuốn sách tiên tri, như "Các cuộc chiến tranh tiền tệ", trình bày những rủi ro thực sự đối với hệ thống tài chính toàn cầu, và đưa ra lời khuyên vô giá về cách tốt nhất để vượt qua cơn bão. "Hậu khủng hoảng" là cuốn sách mà mọi nhà đầu tư thông minh sẽ muốn chạm tay vào – càng sớm càng tốt.
Hơn 12 năm qua, nói đến thị trường tài chính, hầu hết dân thường đều như chim sợ cành cong! Mọi người hết sức chật vật sinh tồn, và mơ hồ tin rằng các ngân hàng trung ương trên thế giới đã nỗ lực ngăn chặn được một sự sụp đổ hoàn toàn của các thị trường vốn, khôi phục tăng trưởng tự-duy-trì. Kinh tế toàn cầu đang trên đường phục hồi, có lẽ vậy! Và ai mà không muốn tin như vậy.
Nhưng cái mà người bình thường dễ nhìn ra nhất là bong bóng bất động sản, chẳng phải chúng lại đang vào chu kỳ trương phồng ở khắp nơi nữa sao? Và giá vàng liên tục lập những đỉnh mới!
Ngay trang đầu giới thiệu, "Hậu khủng hoảng" đưa ra cảnh báo chắc nịch rằng cuộc khủng hoảng 2008 chưa bao giờ thực sự kết thúc! Và như trận Xích Bích chỉ còn chờ gió đông, tác giả James Rickards khẳng định chỉ cần có một trong những chất xúc tác sau đây là củi khô bùng cháy: chiến tranh, bất ổn chính trị, và… đại dịch!
Đại dịch? Chúng ta ở trong đại dịch Covid-19 hai năm rồi!
Trong cuốn sách thực tế nhất của mình cho đến nay, chuyên gia tài chính và cố vấn đầu tư James Rickards chỉ ra cho chúng ta thấy nguyên nhân gây ra cơn sốt giá giả tạo trên thị trường tài chính toàn cầu, chứng khoán và các tài sản tài chính đang được thổi giá như thế nào — và những nhà đầu tư thông minh có thể làm gì để bảo vệ tài sản của mình.
Có lên ắt có xuống. Những đỉnh cao chóng mặt của thị trường chứng khoán không thể tiếp tục vô thời hạn — nhất là vì tài sản đã được thổi giá tăng giả tạo bởi sự lạc quan của giới đầu tư thời chính quyền Trump, lãi suất thấp khủng khiếp và kinh tế học hành vi thâm nhập vào đời sống tài chính. Giới quyền thế tiền tệ đã chuẩn bị sẵn sàng, nhưng những nhà đầu tư bình thường phải làm gì?
James Rickards, tác giả những cuốn sách tiên tri, như "Các cuộc chiến tranh tiền tệ", trình bày những rủi ro thực sự đối với hệ thống tài chính toàn cầu, và đưa ra lời khuyên vô giá về cách tốt nhất để vượt qua cơn bão. "Hậu khủng hoảng" là cuốn sách mà mọi nhà đầu tư thông minh sẽ muốn chạm tay vào – càng sớm càng tốt.
405 pages, Paperback
Published January 1, 2021
412 people are currently reading
1072 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 66 reviews
August 13, 2019
I picked this book up on a whim when I was at Barnes and Noble. This seems to be a cautionary tale on how the economy not only in the United States but also globally can go wrong. Rickards offers some general investment ideas on how investors can protect themselves. Very interesting read.
Aftermath notes:
By purchasing long-term treasury securities, the Fed lowered their total return and made them less attractive to investors. In turn, this made stocks and real estate more attractive on a relative basis.
Mercantilism makes China the fastest growing major economy, while free trade leaves the United States to languish with depression level growth.
The debt to GDP ratio is merely national debt divided by national output calculated in the form of gross domestic product, or GDP.
During the Reagan years, the US debt to GDP ratio grew from 32.5% to 53.1% the highest level seen since the early 1960s.
Clinton presided over the longest peacetime economic expansion in US history. At the end of Clinton's presidency, he even produced a small budget surplus for the first time since 1969.
The combination of tax cuts and increased spending signaled the return of trillion dollar annual deficits that will soon push the US debt to GDP ratio from my 105% to 115% (trump)
1. Reduce exposure to high valuation, High growth stocks and technology, media and advertising ( Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google)
2. Allocate part of one's portfolio to sectors that perform well in low growth and deflationary environments, including utilities, 10 year US treasury notes, and high quality municipal bonds.
3. Increase your allocation to cash.
I have yet to meet a hedge fund billionaire, and I've met many, who does not have a large personal allocation to physical gold.
The main difference between today's market crashes and past market crashes is automation––automation trading.
Today, over 15% of US debt is owed to foreign countries including China, Taiwan, and Japan.
The GBI, also called universal basic income, UBI or simply basic income is an old idea offered as a new remedy for an economy that produces too few jobs with decent wages. The idea is strikingly simple. Government will pay every citizen a basic income from public resources. It is paid without any requirement for work and regardless of any other income.
How does an investor prepare for a world that could be inflationary or deflationary? This solution is called the barbell portfolio. On one side of the barbell you have inflation protection consisting of gold, silver, land, and other hard assets. On the other side of the barbell you have deflation protection consisting of 10 year treasury notes, utility stocks, and technology companies that continually reduce costs. Connecting the two sides of the barbell it's an allocation of cash. The cash reduces the overall volatility of the portfolio and provides optionality to pivot towards inflation or deflation protection if either becomes dominant.
Aftermath notes:
By purchasing long-term treasury securities, the Fed lowered their total return and made them less attractive to investors. In turn, this made stocks and real estate more attractive on a relative basis.
Mercantilism makes China the fastest growing major economy, while free trade leaves the United States to languish with depression level growth.
The debt to GDP ratio is merely national debt divided by national output calculated in the form of gross domestic product, or GDP.
During the Reagan years, the US debt to GDP ratio grew from 32.5% to 53.1% the highest level seen since the early 1960s.
Clinton presided over the longest peacetime economic expansion in US history. At the end of Clinton's presidency, he even produced a small budget surplus for the first time since 1969.
The combination of tax cuts and increased spending signaled the return of trillion dollar annual deficits that will soon push the US debt to GDP ratio from my 105% to 115% (trump)
1. Reduce exposure to high valuation, High growth stocks and technology, media and advertising ( Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google)
2. Allocate part of one's portfolio to sectors that perform well in low growth and deflationary environments, including utilities, 10 year US treasury notes, and high quality municipal bonds.
3. Increase your allocation to cash.
I have yet to meet a hedge fund billionaire, and I've met many, who does not have a large personal allocation to physical gold.
The main difference between today's market crashes and past market crashes is automation––automation trading.
Today, over 15% of US debt is owed to foreign countries including China, Taiwan, and Japan.
The GBI, also called universal basic income, UBI or simply basic income is an old idea offered as a new remedy for an economy that produces too few jobs with decent wages. The idea is strikingly simple. Government will pay every citizen a basic income from public resources. It is paid without any requirement for work and regardless of any other income.
How does an investor prepare for a world that could be inflationary or deflationary? This solution is called the barbell portfolio. On one side of the barbell you have inflation protection consisting of gold, silver, land, and other hard assets. On the other side of the barbell you have deflation protection consisting of 10 year treasury notes, utility stocks, and technology companies that continually reduce costs. Connecting the two sides of the barbell it's an allocation of cash. The cash reduces the overall volatility of the portfolio and provides optionality to pivot towards inflation or deflation protection if either becomes dominant.
July 29, 2019
This is the best of the four; it repeats some thoughts and reasoning first established in the other 3, but even these are presented with more depth and flair. The book is a fundamental reflection on the zeitgeist, with relevant conclusions and potentially life saving, concrete advice. For some 20 dollars, there isn't better value for money in an any other consultancy you may hire. It's also amazingly well written, with extremely effective phrasing that is always a pleasure to read.
It's also a surprisingly human text, almost a la Cory Doctorow (a consideration that probably will be rejected by both, but still). This for instance took me directly to "Masque of the Red Death" and the interview Doctorow gave Scalzi for the Los Angeles Times ("The end of civilization isn’t something we should be preparing bunkers for, it’s something we should be striving to avert and getting ready to remediate when the signs get bad. The heroes of the disaster aren’t the rich dudes wetting their beds in luxury bunkers — it’s the people who get the sanitation going again."): "The key to survival in a true collapse is not a bunker, rifle, or private jet. The key is community. You will not survive on your own, yet you might just survive in a community that is prepared to share food, fresh water, labor, and artisanal skills. Your skill as a carpenter, dentist, or field hand might be richly rewarded with corn, cheese, milk, and bacon."
Rickards reasoning at its best, 3 illustrations.
First: "The objections of conventional monetary elites to this new gold standard are easily stated. Any fixed exchange rate, whether to gold, dollars, or another numeraire, impedes a central bank’s ability to steal from citizens through inflation and devaluation. The inflation-theft paradigm is critical to elite efforts to transfer wealth to themselves and their state apparatus in pursuit of a globalist policy agenda. Elites also claim that a fixed exchange rate invites a drain on the hard currency reserves of a currency issuer when the fixed rate is viewed as out-of-line with market prices. A fixed exchange rate arguably eliminates one leg of the Mundell-Fleming triangle..." (N.B.: Read the rest in the book.)
Second: "There is a feeling that children will not do as well as their parents. There is a feeling of job insecurity. There is a feeling of overtaxation relative to other echelons of society. Above all, there is a feeling of a rigged game in which the rich share inside information, the poor are subsidized, and the middle class does all the work and receives no respect from elites or political leadership. None of these feelings is misplaced. Burdens placed on the middle class have never been greater, even as society’s rewards are snatched by super-rich investors or recipients of government assistance."
Third: "This scenario of the rich getting richer and the middle class falling behind is playing out in areas besides investing. Inequality is true in college admissions, where the wealthy continue to send their sons and daughters to elite schools while the middle class are restrained by sky-high tuitions and the burden of student loans. It’s true in the housing market, where the rich picked up mansions on the cheap in foreclosure sales while the middle class were frozen in place by negative equity. It’s true in health care, where the rich could afford all the insurance they needed while the middle class were handicapped by unemployment and the loss of job-related benefits. These disparities also affected the adult children of the middle class. There are no gold-plated benefits packages in the gig economy. The extent of this income redistribution toward the rich and away from the middle class is revealed in recent research from Deutsche Bank."
About style.
Uno: "The usual remedies are land redistribution, progressive income taxation, higher estate taxation, free education, greater access to good schools, support for preschool programs, free lunches and improved nutrition, universal health care, an end to preferential legacy school admissions, an end to discrimination in hiring, and greater diversity in the management of large companies. Scheidel’s second conclusion is that none of these remedies has any chance of becoming law on a large enough scale to have a material impact on income inequality. (...) Periodically society experiences what Scheidel calls a “leveling,” in which income distribution is compressed and gaps between rich and poor are greatly reduced. That’s the good news. The bad news is that leveling is achieved only through death and violence as a result of mass mobilization warfare, extreme revolution, pandemic plague, or a systemic collapse."
Duo: "Bernanke relied on what he called the portfolio channel effect. The idea is that if the Fed holds short-term rates at zero, and depresses long-term interest rates by buying Treasury notes, investors are forced to look elsewhere for higher yields. In doing so, investors will bid up the prices of stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, emerging markets, and other assets. The resulting gains in asset prices will provide collateral for loans to corporations and boost consumer confidence as the gains show up in 401(k) statements. This newfound wealth and confidence would gin up spending and more lending. The combination of corporate borrowing, investment, and consumer spending would soon set the U.S. economy back on the path of self-sustaining trend growth. Bernanke’s experiment failed. Investment and consumption did not return to trend."
Tertio: "In other words, hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value."
Look, there's much, much more. The book's a treasure trove. Just buy it and relish in the reading.
It's also a surprisingly human text, almost a la Cory Doctorow (a consideration that probably will be rejected by both, but still). This for instance took me directly to "Masque of the Red Death" and the interview Doctorow gave Scalzi for the Los Angeles Times ("The end of civilization isn’t something we should be preparing bunkers for, it’s something we should be striving to avert and getting ready to remediate when the signs get bad. The heroes of the disaster aren’t the rich dudes wetting their beds in luxury bunkers — it’s the people who get the sanitation going again."): "The key to survival in a true collapse is not a bunker, rifle, or private jet. The key is community. You will not survive on your own, yet you might just survive in a community that is prepared to share food, fresh water, labor, and artisanal skills. Your skill as a carpenter, dentist, or field hand might be richly rewarded with corn, cheese, milk, and bacon."
Rickards reasoning at its best, 3 illustrations.
First: "The objections of conventional monetary elites to this new gold standard are easily stated. Any fixed exchange rate, whether to gold, dollars, or another numeraire, impedes a central bank’s ability to steal from citizens through inflation and devaluation. The inflation-theft paradigm is critical to elite efforts to transfer wealth to themselves and their state apparatus in pursuit of a globalist policy agenda. Elites also claim that a fixed exchange rate invites a drain on the hard currency reserves of a currency issuer when the fixed rate is viewed as out-of-line with market prices. A fixed exchange rate arguably eliminates one leg of the Mundell-Fleming triangle..." (N.B.: Read the rest in the book.)
Second: "There is a feeling that children will not do as well as their parents. There is a feeling of job insecurity. There is a feeling of overtaxation relative to other echelons of society. Above all, there is a feeling of a rigged game in which the rich share inside information, the poor are subsidized, and the middle class does all the work and receives no respect from elites or political leadership. None of these feelings is misplaced. Burdens placed on the middle class have never been greater, even as society’s rewards are snatched by super-rich investors or recipients of government assistance."
Third: "This scenario of the rich getting richer and the middle class falling behind is playing out in areas besides investing. Inequality is true in college admissions, where the wealthy continue to send their sons and daughters to elite schools while the middle class are restrained by sky-high tuitions and the burden of student loans. It’s true in the housing market, where the rich picked up mansions on the cheap in foreclosure sales while the middle class were frozen in place by negative equity. It’s true in health care, where the rich could afford all the insurance they needed while the middle class were handicapped by unemployment and the loss of job-related benefits. These disparities also affected the adult children of the middle class. There are no gold-plated benefits packages in the gig economy. The extent of this income redistribution toward the rich and away from the middle class is revealed in recent research from Deutsche Bank."
About style.
Uno: "The usual remedies are land redistribution, progressive income taxation, higher estate taxation, free education, greater access to good schools, support for preschool programs, free lunches and improved nutrition, universal health care, an end to preferential legacy school admissions, an end to discrimination in hiring, and greater diversity in the management of large companies. Scheidel’s second conclusion is that none of these remedies has any chance of becoming law on a large enough scale to have a material impact on income inequality. (...) Periodically society experiences what Scheidel calls a “leveling,” in which income distribution is compressed and gaps between rich and poor are greatly reduced. That’s the good news. The bad news is that leveling is achieved only through death and violence as a result of mass mobilization warfare, extreme revolution, pandemic plague, or a systemic collapse."
Duo: "Bernanke relied on what he called the portfolio channel effect. The idea is that if the Fed holds short-term rates at zero, and depresses long-term interest rates by buying Treasury notes, investors are forced to look elsewhere for higher yields. In doing so, investors will bid up the prices of stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, emerging markets, and other assets. The resulting gains in asset prices will provide collateral for loans to corporations and boost consumer confidence as the gains show up in 401(k) statements. This newfound wealth and confidence would gin up spending and more lending. The combination of corporate borrowing, investment, and consumer spending would soon set the U.S. economy back on the path of self-sustaining trend growth. Bernanke’s experiment failed. Investment and consumption did not return to trend."
Tertio: "In other words, hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value."
Look, there's much, much more. The book's a treasure trove. Just buy it and relish in the reading.
August 26, 2019
My first time reading Rickards and I am impressed. This book ties together economic trends, history and financial advice. This book analyzes economic trends up till 2018 with some discussion on the Trump policies. Rickards has a great easy to read style despite a deep technical analysis of economics. Rickards combines together his own personal financial experience and interactions with other economists.
More detail and quotes in the spoiler
More detail and quotes in the spoiler
August 19, 2019
I found Road to Ruin more profound, but maybe that was because it was my first Rickard’s book. Jim has a wide range of financial and professional experience, he combines that with being very well read, well traveled, and compelling interests outside of finance to produce well written and well rounded books. That’s a lot of “well”s, but I think you’ll agree. I stand ready to audiobook his next one as soon as it comes out.
September 12, 2021
How would you preserve your wealth before an impending economic collapse? One word: Preparation.
That is the overall solution I understood after reading James Rickards' "Aftermath". While certainly not one of his best books, Mr. Rickards still makes worthwhile points on the dangers of economic crashes and how to best protect yourself before such events.
Each chapter in "Aftermath" is saturated with deep research into the historical causes behind troubles in the economy, as well as a summary to end the chapter with 'investment secrets' (seven in total) directed to readers so they may use the advice to better prepare themselves financially. While I thoroughly enjoyed reading the chapters, I found myself not too interested in these secrets. The problem is that the secrets are forgettable due to their placements at the very end of the lengthy chapters.
However, the chapters themselves contain a mine of information useful for people wanting to know more about modern financial and economical history. The author even adds his own experiences within the financial sectors to highlight the importance of knowing what happens behind the scenes. Plenty of corrupt tactics are revealed to have been done by politicians, corporate CEOs, and others that serve as warning signs of desparation by world powers to keep the economy afloat at the expense of everyday citizens. There are times when Mr. Rickards dabbles too much into politics and subjects that are not very related to the topic at hand. Still, he at least tries to connect the topics to keep them as relevant as possible to his research. And the tricks to preparing for economic chaos are well thought out, helping readers take basic steps in preparation for their own safety.
"Aftermath" may not be the most influencial work from James Rickards, but it is still fairly exciting to read. People will still be glued to the book until the end as Mr. Rickards yet again presents valuable research-backed information on the increasingly volatile economic climate, and tops it all with tips to prepare for the eventual breaking point.
That is the overall solution I understood after reading James Rickards' "Aftermath". While certainly not one of his best books, Mr. Rickards still makes worthwhile points on the dangers of economic crashes and how to best protect yourself before such events.
Each chapter in "Aftermath" is saturated with deep research into the historical causes behind troubles in the economy, as well as a summary to end the chapter with 'investment secrets' (seven in total) directed to readers so they may use the advice to better prepare themselves financially. While I thoroughly enjoyed reading the chapters, I found myself not too interested in these secrets. The problem is that the secrets are forgettable due to their placements at the very end of the lengthy chapters.
However, the chapters themselves contain a mine of information useful for people wanting to know more about modern financial and economical history. The author even adds his own experiences within the financial sectors to highlight the importance of knowing what happens behind the scenes. Plenty of corrupt tactics are revealed to have been done by politicians, corporate CEOs, and others that serve as warning signs of desparation by world powers to keep the economy afloat at the expense of everyday citizens. There are times when Mr. Rickards dabbles too much into politics and subjects that are not very related to the topic at hand. Still, he at least tries to connect the topics to keep them as relevant as possible to his research. And the tricks to preparing for economic chaos are well thought out, helping readers take basic steps in preparation for their own safety.
"Aftermath" may not be the most influencial work from James Rickards, but it is still fairly exciting to read. People will still be glued to the book until the end as Mr. Rickards yet again presents valuable research-backed information on the increasingly volatile economic climate, and tops it all with tips to prepare for the eventual breaking point.
August 17, 2020
It is a very controversial book.
I’ll start with the bad:
- Rickards is quite emotional in his writing. Not the good kind of emotional that makes you feel stuff. The kind where you want to put the book down, pick up the phone, and tell the author to just stick to the facts.
- His storytelling isn’t great. At the chapter level, it is alright, but at the book level, you don’t finish it and think wow, that was a great story. I had that feeling with The Art of Learning for example (https://valentin.vincendon.com/book-s...). Not there. All the more frustrating that he repeats that it is his 4th book in this series - the only one I tried because it had the highest reviews on Goodreads plus I assumed his thesis would have gained in maturity.
- His logical chain of thought is not always 100% iron-clad. It made me think - not for the best - of translating some of Plato’s rhetoric back in high school. “You know how baby horses can stand up from birth? In the same way, humans need to adapt fast to their environment. It means you should buy gold.”
- Long story short, it does not always make perfect sense to me why his conclusion is always to include gold in your personal portfolio’s asset allocation. I do agree with the idea, but either he should have made each chapter a full book with much more detailed explanations and logical steps, or he should have tweaked his story a bit.
- In a book like this one, I would have expected a chapter on cryptocurrencies / decentralised ledgers.
The good side of the story:
- With a bit of critical thinking and side research, I fundamentally agree with most of the points he makes.
- Some parts of his story are often personal conversations with very senior public figures, which would be very hard to come by via any other source.
- He did his thorough research on monetary mass gold-backing. Some of the ratios he uses are rather unique. I had initially seen the book quoted for those a financial report, and I could not find corroborative data anywhere. This is why I decided to get the book in the first place.
His most interesting points:
- Great experience and thinking around trade balances and geopolitics - it really gives a solid overview and introduces the right concepts.
- Very solid thesis on monetary supply and gold as a reserve value. I would have loved more/older historical lessons, but still well-researched and instructive. This is the book’s core idea.
- Some decent facts and ratios about debt, but I would much rather refer to Ray Dalio’s Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises or Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed Or Fail.
- Interesting second-order thinking about passive investments and the ETF wave. I already shared his concerns, but the significant positive societal impact can’t be ignored either.
- Extremely original thoughts on behavioural economics applied to “improve” society - a very interesting take both from a moral and practical perspective.
In conclusion, neither the book I would bring on my desert island nor one I would re-read from cover to cover, but definitely not regretting the read either.
Read my full reading notes here: https://valentin.vincendon.com/book-s...
I’ll start with the bad:
- Rickards is quite emotional in his writing. Not the good kind of emotional that makes you feel stuff. The kind where you want to put the book down, pick up the phone, and tell the author to just stick to the facts.
- His storytelling isn’t great. At the chapter level, it is alright, but at the book level, you don’t finish it and think wow, that was a great story. I had that feeling with The Art of Learning for example (https://valentin.vincendon.com/book-s...). Not there. All the more frustrating that he repeats that it is his 4th book in this series - the only one I tried because it had the highest reviews on Goodreads plus I assumed his thesis would have gained in maturity.
- His logical chain of thought is not always 100% iron-clad. It made me think - not for the best - of translating some of Plato’s rhetoric back in high school. “You know how baby horses can stand up from birth? In the same way, humans need to adapt fast to their environment. It means you should buy gold.”
- Long story short, it does not always make perfect sense to me why his conclusion is always to include gold in your personal portfolio’s asset allocation. I do agree with the idea, but either he should have made each chapter a full book with much more detailed explanations and logical steps, or he should have tweaked his story a bit.
- In a book like this one, I would have expected a chapter on cryptocurrencies / decentralised ledgers.
The good side of the story:
- With a bit of critical thinking and side research, I fundamentally agree with most of the points he makes.
- Some parts of his story are often personal conversations with very senior public figures, which would be very hard to come by via any other source.
- He did his thorough research on monetary mass gold-backing. Some of the ratios he uses are rather unique. I had initially seen the book quoted for those a financial report, and I could not find corroborative data anywhere. This is why I decided to get the book in the first place.
His most interesting points:
- Great experience and thinking around trade balances and geopolitics - it really gives a solid overview and introduces the right concepts.
- Very solid thesis on monetary supply and gold as a reserve value. I would have loved more/older historical lessons, but still well-researched and instructive. This is the book’s core idea.
- Some decent facts and ratios about debt, but I would much rather refer to Ray Dalio’s Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises or Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed Or Fail.
- Interesting second-order thinking about passive investments and the ETF wave. I already shared his concerns, but the significant positive societal impact can’t be ignored either.
- Extremely original thoughts on behavioural economics applied to “improve” society - a very interesting take both from a moral and practical perspective.
In conclusion, neither the book I would bring on my desert island nor one I would re-read from cover to cover, but definitely not regretting the read either.
Read my full reading notes here: https://valentin.vincendon.com/book-s...
August 13, 2024
I guess the biggest takeaway I got from this book was the sound financial advice to diversify your portfolio in an ever changing market. The author backs this with historical examples throughout the book. The thing I admired the author for the most was his bluntness and not being afraid to call a spade a spade. This book was the final installment in a four part series by the author. Now all I have to do is go back and read the other three!!
April 20, 2022
Her fikrine katilmam mumkun degil ancak harika ve surukleyici anlatimi ve verdigi orneklerle farkli bir perspektif kazanmanizi sagliyor. Bircok konuda da ongorulerinin dogrulugu da yadsinamaz…tavsiye ederim…
February 26, 2022
The author is very knowledgeable on the macro side, but often deviates and you have to get through some crud until you get back to the subject of the book.
I'll start with the positives about the book:
- has a very nice history of US debt and why today it is troublingly off path
- presents the different monetary policy groups of today - the post-keynesians, the neo-keynesians, and modern monetary theorists - and what impacts could their policy have on the economy (especially the MMT group)
- shows where IMF fits into the whole scheme, talks about the SDR (special drawing rights)
- explains the emerging markets debt crises and why they happen
The negatives:
- has many rants that bring no value to the book, it seems to me that their only purpose is to inflate the ego of the author; he mentions high-profile persons he met, projects he worked on, and sometimes just injects overly-complicated phrases which have little to do with the discussed subject and doesn't develop on them either, e.g.: "These elements [...] can be combined in neural networks as nodes populated with market data and plain text read with meaning by machines like IBM's Watson using advanced cognitive linguistic techniques. The nodes are linked with weighted recursive functions to produce actionable third-wave AI predictive analytics"
- makes multiple references to the Reinhart-Rogoff research about the debt-to-GDP ratio, but doesn't also show the criticism of the study and how it is flawed; I'm sure a high debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't help a country, but it would have been nice to show the other side as well
- criticizes passive investing but greatly exaggerates its impact on the market, without basing his analysis on any facts or data; Nicolas Rabener debunked this myth in a recent post
- also criticizes smart-beta/factor investing for being just a marketing scheme; while it's true that there are hundreds of factors without any real base, there is also ample research on proven factors (see Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today)
- the investment advice at the end of each chapter is not only vague and sometimes redundant (gold is mentioned in almost all chapters), but sometimes utterly useless: "Allocate 10 percent of investible assets to private equity and venture capital by investing in firms where you personally know the founders and operators"
I'll start with the positives about the book:
- has a very nice history of US debt and why today it is troublingly off path
- presents the different monetary policy groups of today - the post-keynesians, the neo-keynesians, and modern monetary theorists - and what impacts could their policy have on the economy (especially the MMT group)
- shows where IMF fits into the whole scheme, talks about the SDR (special drawing rights)
- explains the emerging markets debt crises and why they happen
The negatives:
- has many rants that bring no value to the book, it seems to me that their only purpose is to inflate the ego of the author; he mentions high-profile persons he met, projects he worked on, and sometimes just injects overly-complicated phrases which have little to do with the discussed subject and doesn't develop on them either, e.g.: "These elements [...] can be combined in neural networks as nodes populated with market data and plain text read with meaning by machines like IBM's Watson using advanced cognitive linguistic techniques. The nodes are linked with weighted recursive functions to produce actionable third-wave AI predictive analytics"
- makes multiple references to the Reinhart-Rogoff research about the debt-to-GDP ratio, but doesn't also show the criticism of the study and how it is flawed; I'm sure a high debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't help a country, but it would have been nice to show the other side as well
- criticizes passive investing but greatly exaggerates its impact on the market, without basing his analysis on any facts or data; Nicolas Rabener debunked this myth in a recent post
- also criticizes smart-beta/factor investing for being just a marketing scheme; while it's true that there are hundreds of factors without any real base, there is also ample research on proven factors (see Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today)
- the investment advice at the end of each chapter is not only vague and sometimes redundant (gold is mentioned in almost all chapters), but sometimes utterly useless: "Allocate 10 percent of investible assets to private equity and venture capital by investing in firms where you personally know the founders and operators"
November 21, 2021
James Rickards is an economic alarmist who some will point to his predictions having failed to come true... while others would say ...yet. I early read his books for advice in case the "yet" actually happens. Reading this book in 2021 is interesting as there has never been a time in my life where market fundamentals have been so out of touch with performance. A substantial portion of my portfolio is in cheap index funds, which has served me well, but this book exposed me to the market risk being perpetuated by index funds. I better understand the disconnect, and am driven to diversify/modify my portfolio as a result.
Action(s) I will take a result of reading this book:
-adjust the asset classes in my portfolio, increasing precious metals and cash, decreasing securities within index funds
-shifting index fund holdings to minimally diversified basket of actual shares in companies that have weathered financial crises (note: I'll continue to use index funds to accumulate due to ease and low cost, but will now add index to share conversion to my rebalancing exercise - likely annually)
Key takeaways from book:
-hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value
Investment Secret #1: Tariffs and trade surpluses are back in style. Prepare for a more mercantilist world. Action: invest in gold, silver, useful precious metals
Investment Secret #2: Prepare for slow growth and periodic recessions for the decades to come. Action: Avoid FAANG stocks. Invest in US Treasury notes/municipal bonds etc, keep portion in cash to hedge against deflation and to be able to buy stocks when markets collapse.
Investment Secret #3: Beware the hidden hand of behavioral manipulation. Watch out for nudges e.g. does my employer opt me in to index fund investing? Ask why, who benefits... what are the better alternatives?
Investment Secret #4: Seek diversification away from exchange-traded markets by allocating to cash, gold and alternatives. Action: 30% cash; 10% gold; 10% VC/PE
Investment Secret #5: Low productivity may mean inflation... or deflation. Action: build a barbell portfolio: gold, silver, land, and other hard assets for inflation protection; 10-year Treasury notes, utility stocks, and productivity-improving technology companies for deflation protection
Investment Secret #6: Prepare for asset-backed currencies with digital gold.
Investment Secret #7: Allocate wealth to alternative assets.
I have yet to meet a hedge fund billionaire, and I've met many, who does not have a large personal allocation to physical gold.
Action(s) I will take a result of reading this book:
-adjust the asset classes in my portfolio, increasing precious metals and cash, decreasing securities within index funds
-shifting index fund holdings to minimally diversified basket of actual shares in companies that have weathered financial crises (note: I'll continue to use index funds to accumulate due to ease and low cost, but will now add index to share conversion to my rebalancing exercise - likely annually)
Key takeaways from book:
-hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value
Investment Secret #1: Tariffs and trade surpluses are back in style. Prepare for a more mercantilist world. Action: invest in gold, silver, useful precious metals
Investment Secret #2: Prepare for slow growth and periodic recessions for the decades to come. Action: Avoid FAANG stocks. Invest in US Treasury notes/municipal bonds etc, keep portion in cash to hedge against deflation and to be able to buy stocks when markets collapse.
Investment Secret #3: Beware the hidden hand of behavioral manipulation. Watch out for nudges e.g. does my employer opt me in to index fund investing? Ask why, who benefits... what are the better alternatives?
Investment Secret #4: Seek diversification away from exchange-traded markets by allocating to cash, gold and alternatives. Action: 30% cash; 10% gold; 10% VC/PE
Investment Secret #5: Low productivity may mean inflation... or deflation. Action: build a barbell portfolio: gold, silver, land, and other hard assets for inflation protection; 10-year Treasury notes, utility stocks, and productivity-improving technology companies for deflation protection
Investment Secret #6: Prepare for asset-backed currencies with digital gold.
Investment Secret #7: Allocate wealth to alternative assets.
I have yet to meet a hedge fund billionaire, and I've met many, who does not have a large personal allocation to physical gold.
July 30, 2020
VERY sobering read on where the economy around the world is and what is happening. It's non-partisan. Rickards doesn't spare anybody their blame. However, it's a troubling read in that there is finally going to be a bill come due that can't be solved by printing. At some point, we have to pay.
He offers some interesting takes on how this might sort itself out as well as how you can protect yourself. He's a great writer on these subjects (Currency Wars was great) and I will continue to follow him and read his work. If you're interested in economics, currency, monetary theory, and how you can best protect and prepare for it.
He discusses our relationship with China and how that looks to unfold and wind up and how we got o this point with them in the final chapters of the book. A very engaging and well thought out book.
He offers some interesting takes on how this might sort itself out as well as how you can protect yourself. He's a great writer on these subjects (Currency Wars was great) and I will continue to follow him and read his work. If you're interested in economics, currency, monetary theory, and how you can best protect and prepare for it.
He discusses our relationship with China and how that looks to unfold and wind up and how we got o this point with them in the final chapters of the book. A very engaging and well thought out book.
July 27, 2021
A really long book to tell you to buy physical gold because our economy is corrupt and self-imploding. There was a lot of great information in it though regarding the politics surrounding the stock market.
February 15, 2020
This was a very well researched and eloquently presented book. The author has deep experience in threats to finance and economics. It was for me a combination of new information and analysis combined with very practical advise I had heard before. Well worth the read, I would highly recommend reading this book. I read this, the last in the series, first, I look forward to reading the rest of the series.
May 19, 2025
Central banks dread deflation more than inflation because deflation increases the real value of debt, leading to defaults that threaten the stability of the banking system. It also raises the real standard of living for citizens in ways that governments find difficult to tax. As cash becomes more valuable, consumption slows—strangling economic growth, which remains the cornerstone of modern capitalist systems.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, central banks launched three successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE), vastly expanding the base money supply from $800 billion to $4 trillion. Contrary to critics' warnings, this unprecedented money printing did not trigger immediate inflation. From 2008 to 2018, inflation remained subdued. The missing ingredient was velocity—people were saving, repaying debt, and restoring household balance sheets rather than spending. As a result, while QE failed to ignite consumer price inflation, it did inflate asset bubbles across financial markets.
Meanwhile, the global economic order has been drifting away from free trade toward a resurgence of mercantilist principles. Historically, America’s most prosperous eras were underpinned by protectionism. From Alexander Hamilton’s early industrial policies to Ronald Reagan’s tariffs on Japanese cars, economic nationalism played a central role in building domestic strength. Today, the United States is once again turning its back on unfettered globalization. The modern revival of tariffs, demands for trade reciprocity, and policies favoring local production all point to a new era of economic self-interest—one in which accumulating physical assets like gold and silver is increasingly aligned with national strategy.
At the same time, the United States faces an escalating debt crisis. Historically, the U.S. maintained fiscal discipline, accumulating surpluses during peace to offset wartime spending. However, since the Civil War and especially under Woodrow Wilson and during WWII, debt levels have surged during conflict and emergency. Post-war administrations once managed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio dramatically—from 120% to 40% by 1969—but that fiscal prudence has since vanished. Today, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 120%, with no political will or strategy to reverse the trend. Even more troubling is the student loan crisis, now over 50% larger than the 2008 subprime mortgage bubble. With nearly all student loans guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury, defaults feed directly into the federal deficit.
This towering debt load implies an unavoidable reckoning. While outright default is unlikely—since the Federal Reserve can always print money—the real threat is inflation. A bloated money supply combined with rising velocity could trigger a sudden loss of confidence in the dollar. In such a moment, citizens would flee cash, seeking refuge in real assets, foreign currencies, or tangible goods. The resulting inflation—or even hyperinflation—would be swift and destabilizing.
Looking forward, the most probable scenario is not a dramatic crash, but rather the slow erosion of growth—a pattern seen in Japan after its 1990 asset bubble. As the U.S. undergoes its own “Japanification,” investors should expect sluggish growth, low productivity, and rising inflation. To preserve wealth in such an environment, portfolios need to shift. High-growth tech stocks may falter, while defensive assets like utilities, long-term treasuries, and high-grade municipal bonds offer relative stability. Holding significant cash reserves adds flexibility and protection, allowing investors to reposition quickly in times of crisis or opportunity.
Investor psychology also plays a critical role in this landscape. Over 180 cognitive biases, such as overconfidence and recency bias, can distort decision-making. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s work exposed how these mental traps influence markets. Meanwhile, governments and corporations increasingly employ “choice architecture” to manipulate decision-making at scale—raising ethical questions and highlighting the need for investor self-awareness and independence.
Compounding market fragility is the rise of passive investing. Index funds, once heralded for their efficiency, now create positive feedback loops that drive prices higher as more money flows in—regardless of underlying value. When the loop reverses, markets may face a scenario with no active buyers left: a “no-bid” collapse where prices fall without a floor. Passive strategies, it turns out, are parasitic on active investment. As the balance shifts too far, systemic risk increases.
At the core of all this lies the hard ceiling of debt. When a nation’s debt surpasses 90% of GDP, added debt ceases to contribute to growth. Instead, it fuels stagnation and raises the risk of default—whether through inflation, non-payment, or restructuring. Investors must prepare for both inflationary and deflationary outcomes. Gold, silver, land, and other hard assets provide protection from inflation, while treasury notes, utility stocks, and cost-cutting tech firms offer safety in deflationary times.
Finally, history suggests that a global monetary reset is inevitable. Since the collapse of the classical gold standard in 1914, major international monetary reforms have occurred roughly every two decades. The next shift may involve gold-backed currencies, digital SDRs, or other mechanisms to restore confidence in money. Meanwhile, elites continue to exploit inflation as a subtle form of wealth transfer—consolidating power under the guise of policy. In a world of fragile money and manipulated markets, the best strategy for investors is to think independently, diversify wisely, and hold enduring assets that transcend political and monetary upheaval.
The Seven Investment Secrets
1. Prepare for a Mercantilist World
- Protectionism is on the rise. Expect more tariffs and tax policies favoring domestic production.
- Allocate part of your wealth to physical gold and silver, key assets in a mercantilist framework.
2. Acknowledge the Implications of High Debt-to-GDP
-The U.S. (at 123% debt-to-GDP) faces slow growth, inflation, tax increases, and defaults.
- Expect the “Japanification” of the economy. Adjust portfolios accordingly.
3. Understand and Guard Against Behavioral Manipulation
- Recognize cognitive biases and resist being influenced by psychological “choice architecture.”
- Stay rational and informed to make independent investment decisions.
4. Diversify Away from Index Funds
- Passive investing creates systemic risk.
- Keep at least 30% in cash, 10% in gold, and a portion in alternatives like private equity or venture capital.
5. Hedge Against Both Inflation and Deflation
- In an inflationary environment: hold hard assets like gold, silver, and land.
- In deflation: focus on treasury bonds, utilities, and tech companies that reduce costs.
6. Prepare for a Global Monetary Reset
- Expect new asset-backed currencies or systems (e.g., gold-pegged SDRs).
- Maintain at least 10% of your investable assets in physical gold as insurance and diversification.
7. Allocate Strategically to Alternative Assets
- Markets are complex and fragile.
- A well-diversified portfolio should include meaningful allocations to gold and other non-traditional assets.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, central banks launched three successive rounds of quantitative easing (QE), vastly expanding the base money supply from $800 billion to $4 trillion. Contrary to critics' warnings, this unprecedented money printing did not trigger immediate inflation. From 2008 to 2018, inflation remained subdued. The missing ingredient was velocity—people were saving, repaying debt, and restoring household balance sheets rather than spending. As a result, while QE failed to ignite consumer price inflation, it did inflate asset bubbles across financial markets.
Meanwhile, the global economic order has been drifting away from free trade toward a resurgence of mercantilist principles. Historically, America’s most prosperous eras were underpinned by protectionism. From Alexander Hamilton’s early industrial policies to Ronald Reagan’s tariffs on Japanese cars, economic nationalism played a central role in building domestic strength. Today, the United States is once again turning its back on unfettered globalization. The modern revival of tariffs, demands for trade reciprocity, and policies favoring local production all point to a new era of economic self-interest—one in which accumulating physical assets like gold and silver is increasingly aligned with national strategy.
At the same time, the United States faces an escalating debt crisis. Historically, the U.S. maintained fiscal discipline, accumulating surpluses during peace to offset wartime spending. However, since the Civil War and especially under Woodrow Wilson and during WWII, debt levels have surged during conflict and emergency. Post-war administrations once managed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio dramatically—from 120% to 40% by 1969—but that fiscal prudence has since vanished. Today, the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 120%, with no political will or strategy to reverse the trend. Even more troubling is the student loan crisis, now over 50% larger than the 2008 subprime mortgage bubble. With nearly all student loans guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury, defaults feed directly into the federal deficit.
This towering debt load implies an unavoidable reckoning. While outright default is unlikely—since the Federal Reserve can always print money—the real threat is inflation. A bloated money supply combined with rising velocity could trigger a sudden loss of confidence in the dollar. In such a moment, citizens would flee cash, seeking refuge in real assets, foreign currencies, or tangible goods. The resulting inflation—or even hyperinflation—would be swift and destabilizing.
Looking forward, the most probable scenario is not a dramatic crash, but rather the slow erosion of growth—a pattern seen in Japan after its 1990 asset bubble. As the U.S. undergoes its own “Japanification,” investors should expect sluggish growth, low productivity, and rising inflation. To preserve wealth in such an environment, portfolios need to shift. High-growth tech stocks may falter, while defensive assets like utilities, long-term treasuries, and high-grade municipal bonds offer relative stability. Holding significant cash reserves adds flexibility and protection, allowing investors to reposition quickly in times of crisis or opportunity.
Investor psychology also plays a critical role in this landscape. Over 180 cognitive biases, such as overconfidence and recency bias, can distort decision-making. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s work exposed how these mental traps influence markets. Meanwhile, governments and corporations increasingly employ “choice architecture” to manipulate decision-making at scale—raising ethical questions and highlighting the need for investor self-awareness and independence.
Compounding market fragility is the rise of passive investing. Index funds, once heralded for their efficiency, now create positive feedback loops that drive prices higher as more money flows in—regardless of underlying value. When the loop reverses, markets may face a scenario with no active buyers left: a “no-bid” collapse where prices fall without a floor. Passive strategies, it turns out, are parasitic on active investment. As the balance shifts too far, systemic risk increases.
At the core of all this lies the hard ceiling of debt. When a nation’s debt surpasses 90% of GDP, added debt ceases to contribute to growth. Instead, it fuels stagnation and raises the risk of default—whether through inflation, non-payment, or restructuring. Investors must prepare for both inflationary and deflationary outcomes. Gold, silver, land, and other hard assets provide protection from inflation, while treasury notes, utility stocks, and cost-cutting tech firms offer safety in deflationary times.
Finally, history suggests that a global monetary reset is inevitable. Since the collapse of the classical gold standard in 1914, major international monetary reforms have occurred roughly every two decades. The next shift may involve gold-backed currencies, digital SDRs, or other mechanisms to restore confidence in money. Meanwhile, elites continue to exploit inflation as a subtle form of wealth transfer—consolidating power under the guise of policy. In a world of fragile money and manipulated markets, the best strategy for investors is to think independently, diversify wisely, and hold enduring assets that transcend political and monetary upheaval.
The Seven Investment Secrets
1. Prepare for a Mercantilist World
- Protectionism is on the rise. Expect more tariffs and tax policies favoring domestic production.
- Allocate part of your wealth to physical gold and silver, key assets in a mercantilist framework.
2. Acknowledge the Implications of High Debt-to-GDP
-The U.S. (at 123% debt-to-GDP) faces slow growth, inflation, tax increases, and defaults.
- Expect the “Japanification” of the economy. Adjust portfolios accordingly.
3. Understand and Guard Against Behavioral Manipulation
- Recognize cognitive biases and resist being influenced by psychological “choice architecture.”
- Stay rational and informed to make independent investment decisions.
4. Diversify Away from Index Funds
- Passive investing creates systemic risk.
- Keep at least 30% in cash, 10% in gold, and a portion in alternatives like private equity or venture capital.
5. Hedge Against Both Inflation and Deflation
- In an inflationary environment: hold hard assets like gold, silver, and land.
- In deflation: focus on treasury bonds, utilities, and tech companies that reduce costs.
6. Prepare for a Global Monetary Reset
- Expect new asset-backed currencies or systems (e.g., gold-pegged SDRs).
- Maintain at least 10% of your investable assets in physical gold as insurance and diversification.
7. Allocate Strategically to Alternative Assets
- Markets are complex and fragile.
- A well-diversified portfolio should include meaningful allocations to gold and other non-traditional assets.
April 28, 2021
Reading this book in 2021 was like being transported back to a completely different era—which is odd, considering that it was published in 2019. In some ways, the book feels unfortunately dated, with numerous references to the Trump Administration's trade and China policies, and warnings about the possibility of an economic downturn… sometime in the mid-2020s. Youch! Of course, there was no way that Rickards could have foreseen the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent coronapocalypse—and in his defense, he does list several possible "hundred-year flood" type events in the last chapter—including the explicit mention of a pandemic.
So even though the book feels quite dated only two years after its publication, it is still quite relevent. In fact, I would even say that it's important. Too much of the devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic has been caused by the response to the virus, not the virus itself. How much of that chaos was the result of the sheer stupidity of our leaders, and how much of it was intentionally engineered, in order to create a crisis that would enable them to reshape the world? I suspect that historians will debate that question for the next several decades, perhaps even centuries.
With that in mind, this book provides a remarkable perspective on the state of the world just before the arrival of the storm. It outlines with precision and clarity several of the key fault points in our global economy and financial system, and demonstrates that those systems were already starting to come apart even before the pandemic struck. Subsequent events have overshadowed just how bad things had already gotten, and I suspect that those responsible for this are using the chaos of 2020 to cover up their own failures and hide just how broken our world already was.
The writing can be a bit dry at times, especially in the middle of the book. But Rickards is very skilled at breaking complex ideas down to their component parts, and dispassionately outlining the potential outcomes and consequences when bad theories are put to application. Indeed, I felt that he understated just how terrifying the prospect of MMT going mainstream would be, especially under our current regime which is blurring the lines between corporation and state. At other points, where Rickards shares personal stories from his time with the CIA, the writing is quite engaging, so it's not completely dry.
All told, an excellent book, especially for those interested in finance, geopolitics, and in understanding the chaos that has currently gripped our world.
So even though the book feels quite dated only two years after its publication, it is still quite relevent. In fact, I would even say that it's important. Too much of the devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic has been caused by the response to the virus, not the virus itself. How much of that chaos was the result of the sheer stupidity of our leaders, and how much of it was intentionally engineered, in order to create a crisis that would enable them to reshape the world? I suspect that historians will debate that question for the next several decades, perhaps even centuries.
With that in mind, this book provides a remarkable perspective on the state of the world just before the arrival of the storm. It outlines with precision and clarity several of the key fault points in our global economy and financial system, and demonstrates that those systems were already starting to come apart even before the pandemic struck. Subsequent events have overshadowed just how bad things had already gotten, and I suspect that those responsible for this are using the chaos of 2020 to cover up their own failures and hide just how broken our world already was.
The writing can be a bit dry at times, especially in the middle of the book. But Rickards is very skilled at breaking complex ideas down to their component parts, and dispassionately outlining the potential outcomes and consequences when bad theories are put to application. Indeed, I felt that he understated just how terrifying the prospect of MMT going mainstream would be, especially under our current regime which is blurring the lines between corporation and state. At other points, where Rickards shares personal stories from his time with the CIA, the writing is quite engaging, so it's not completely dry.
All told, an excellent book, especially for those interested in finance, geopolitics, and in understanding the chaos that has currently gripped our world.
May 29, 2021
Great reading.
- Investment Secret #1: Tariffs and trade surpluses are back in style. Prepare for a more mercantilist world.
- Investment Secret #2: Prepare for slow growth and periodic recessions for decades to come.
- Investment Secret #3: Beware the hidden hand of behavioral manipulation. Watch out for nudges.
- Investment Secret #4: Seek diversification away from exchange-traded markets by allocating to cash, gold, and alternatives.
- Investment Secret #5: Low Productivity May Mean Inflation . . . Or Deflation.
- Investment Secret #6: Prepare for Asset-Backed Currencies with Physical Gold.
- Investment Secret #7: Allocate Wealth to Alternative Assets.
- Investment Secret #1: Tariffs and trade surpluses are back in style. Prepare for a more mercantilist world.
- Investment Secret #2: Prepare for slow growth and periodic recessions for decades to come.
- Investment Secret #3: Beware the hidden hand of behavioral manipulation. Watch out for nudges.
- Investment Secret #4: Seek diversification away from exchange-traded markets by allocating to cash, gold, and alternatives.
- Investment Secret #5: Low Productivity May Mean Inflation . . . Or Deflation.
- Investment Secret #6: Prepare for Asset-Backed Currencies with Physical Gold.
- Investment Secret #7: Allocate Wealth to Alternative Assets.
"It appears to have been the common practice of antiquity to make provision, during peace, for the necessities of war, and to hoard up treasures beforehand as the instruments either of conquest or defence; without trusting to extraordinary impositions, much less to borrowing, in times of disorder and confusion. . . . We have always found, where a government has mortgaged all its revenues, that it necessarily sinks into a state of languor, inactivity, and impotence." —David Hume, “Of Public Credit” (1752)
"The larger problem is that whatever Ariely’s leanings, not all experts in behavioral psychology are as scrupulous as he. Some choice architects are mercenaries—guns for hire—who work for Big Tobacco or big banks in ways detrimental to the physical or financial health of everyday citizens. Other experts are pure ideologues, out to prevail for a particular cause without regard to money, ethics, or other constraints. There’s nothing new in this. Joseph Goebbels and Leni Riefenstahl used radio and film to make Hitler appear charismatic on the one hand, and a warm friend to children and pets on the other. What is new is the project’s global reach and the relatively low distribution costs compared with traditional media. When manipulative content is combined with data mining, microtargeting, and digital platform distribution, the effect on behavior is forceful and pervasive."
August 29, 2019
An analysis of the bearish case for the economy that does a good job of focusing on commonly misunderstood ideas.
One major theme is the non-linear behavior of complex systems. The author uses several illustrations like avalanches and phase changes. This is a great point because common intuition can be very misleading at moments in time where markets make dramatic moves. In particular, the author has an insightful look at the relationship between automated trading in the securities markets and derivatives markets and how they create self-reinforcing cycles.
The concept of a phase change leads to concern about different levels of debt to GDP ratios. In particular, the idea that the Keynesian multiplier may be different at different levels of debt and at some point it would likely fall below one making the familiar stimulus operations futile. I suspect there may be other factors at play so I would be interested in other analysis of how the multiplier acts. But as debt to GDP levels rise, future governments are very likely to encounter more difficult constraints so the core argument is reasonable. The analysis of debt leads to China of course. I found this to be a very interesting discussion.
There is an extensive analysis of social stratification and prospects for greater fairness. This included several valid points and some good information but I didn't feel the analysis was as solid as that of the other sections.
The author makes some interesting points about gold and the optionality that a significant allocation of cash allows.
The book starts with an extensive narrative that I did not find particularly interesting, but I suspect many people would find it engaging. I kept hoping to find some original brilliant idea. I didn't really find that but I did find several compelling perspectives on issues so it is good food for thought.
One major theme is the non-linear behavior of complex systems. The author uses several illustrations like avalanches and phase changes. This is a great point because common intuition can be very misleading at moments in time where markets make dramatic moves. In particular, the author has an insightful look at the relationship between automated trading in the securities markets and derivatives markets and how they create self-reinforcing cycles.
The concept of a phase change leads to concern about different levels of debt to GDP ratios. In particular, the idea that the Keynesian multiplier may be different at different levels of debt and at some point it would likely fall below one making the familiar stimulus operations futile. I suspect there may be other factors at play so I would be interested in other analysis of how the multiplier acts. But as debt to GDP levels rise, future governments are very likely to encounter more difficult constraints so the core argument is reasonable. The analysis of debt leads to China of course. I found this to be a very interesting discussion.
There is an extensive analysis of social stratification and prospects for greater fairness. This included several valid points and some good information but I didn't feel the analysis was as solid as that of the other sections.
The author makes some interesting points about gold and the optionality that a significant allocation of cash allows.
The book starts with an extensive narrative that I did not find particularly interesting, but I suspect many people would find it engaging. I kept hoping to find some original brilliant idea. I didn't really find that but I did find several compelling perspectives on issues so it is good food for thought.
July 14, 2021
I couldn't say excactly what I expected when I jumped at this book as soon as it launched and waited for it eagerly before... but I can't say I got that.
+ Overall the book is probably pretty right, and for those new to the subjects treated it might still bring a lot. I had read/listened to the author's previous books and while his "Currency Wars" blew me away, this one by comparison brought less to the table (maybe because I also listened to his podcasts for a few years?).
-, - something I didn't like was the somewhat journalistic/newspaper structure some of the chapters had, with a bit too much details about people and personal experiences for my taste (i prefer more analysis)
+, - +, -, + I guess some things can't really be said, or must be said mildly, ... this the author sort of does with warnings and suggestions, but this also makes for a less dramatic reading than more apocalyptic clear predictions. I guess it's for those high up that are more used to reading between the lines more aware how one wrong word can lead to a PR nightmare
- I don't remember now all the details as I'm writing this quite some time after finishing it but I did have the impression I might not agree with some of his views for America and maybe also about China... that of course remains to be seen if he's right... though when it comes to his homeland it makes sense that he'd wish for the best even if he's otherwise balanced
Overall I found the book ok, not breathtaking, but still treating important subjects and from a probably overall correct point of view even if it was less spicy and predictive than i'd have liked to and a bit too braggy personal stories for my taste even if he might deserve it.
+ Overall the book is probably pretty right, and for those new to the subjects treated it might still bring a lot. I had read/listened to the author's previous books and while his "Currency Wars" blew me away, this one by comparison brought less to the table (maybe because I also listened to his podcasts for a few years?).
-, - something I didn't like was the somewhat journalistic/newspaper structure some of the chapters had, with a bit too much details about people and personal experiences for my taste (i prefer more analysis)
+, - +, -, + I guess some things can't really be said, or must be said mildly, ... this the author sort of does with warnings and suggestions, but this also makes for a less dramatic reading than more apocalyptic clear predictions. I guess it's for those high up that are more used to reading between the lines more aware how one wrong word can lead to a PR nightmare
- I don't remember now all the details as I'm writing this quite some time after finishing it but I did have the impression I might not agree with some of his views for America and maybe also about China... that of course remains to be seen if he's right... though when it comes to his homeland it makes sense that he'd wish for the best even if he's otherwise balanced
Overall I found the book ok, not breathtaking, but still treating important subjects and from a probably overall correct point of view even if it was less spicy and predictive than i'd have liked to and a bit too braggy personal stories for my taste even if he might deserve it.
July 30, 2020
I got my hands on this as soon as I finished The New Case For Gold, which was my first foray into Rickards' work and a definite eye-opener. Fortunately this was just as solid of a read with plenty of useful insights and nuggets on the future of the global economy, and I learned a ton from it as well.
Aftermath is a lot longer and more broad in discussion than TNCFG as Rickards touches on a variety of topics ranging from global commerce and the monetary system all the way to trade wars, and in his signature, candid style he tells it like it is. His writing style makes it easy to follow even if all of the concepts aren't totally up your alley, and I appreciated that because economics is definitely not my strong suit. It's also not a topic that I was interested in very much before I read his material, and now I'm sorta hooked on it. When Rickards talks, you feel compelled to listen and absorb what he's saying because he clearly knows what he's talking about, and genuinely wants to help the reader prepare for the worst.
If you're curious about what to do financially during all this craziness and market instability, I would definitely get your hands on this. Heeding his advice is a sound strategy for being prepared for the unknown...which as he points out, is the situation that we face versus any complex system like global markets, so you can never be too complacent with that.
Aftermath is a lot longer and more broad in discussion than TNCFG as Rickards touches on a variety of topics ranging from global commerce and the monetary system all the way to trade wars, and in his signature, candid style he tells it like it is. His writing style makes it easy to follow even if all of the concepts aren't totally up your alley, and I appreciated that because economics is definitely not my strong suit. It's also not a topic that I was interested in very much before I read his material, and now I'm sorta hooked on it. When Rickards talks, you feel compelled to listen and absorb what he's saying because he clearly knows what he's talking about, and genuinely wants to help the reader prepare for the worst.
If you're curious about what to do financially during all this craziness and market instability, I would definitely get your hands on this. Heeding his advice is a sound strategy for being prepared for the unknown...which as he points out, is the situation that we face versus any complex system like global markets, so you can never be too complacent with that.
March 24, 2024
The dinosaurs could not imagine how their era was going to end. Maybe the “economicus” man doesn't imagine it either. We feel so in control of everything, so under control and that we fix everything in one way or another.
Let's look at, for example, the 1929 recession, which was so difficult in the world, and compare it with 2008. Economists already knew how to handle it and prevented it from being as serious as that of the last century.
However, today we have a much more complicated world economically: the most powerful country in the world is highly indebted. Great powers such as China, Russia and the US fight for economic hegemony.
We have as president of the United States someone who should already be retired and as a presidential contender a crazy megalomaniac. What could go wrong?
This wonderful book tells us many things that could go wrong, and also tells us how to take care of ourselves so as not to lose everything. Of course, if the problem is the destruction of society, there won't be much to do.
What do the rich think about it?
Let's look at, for example, the 1929 recession, which was so difficult in the world, and compare it with 2008. Economists already knew how to handle it and prevented it from being as serious as that of the last century.
However, today we have a much more complicated world economically: the most powerful country in the world is highly indebted. Great powers such as China, Russia and the US fight for economic hegemony.
We have as president of the United States someone who should already be retired and as a presidential contender a crazy megalomaniac. What could go wrong?
This wonderful book tells us many things that could go wrong, and also tells us how to take care of ourselves so as not to lose everything. Of course, if the problem is the destruction of society, there won't be much to do.
What do the rich think about it?
April 1, 2025
"Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos" is a thought-provoking read that delves into the complex world of finance. The overarching message of purchasing gold as a safe haven in times of economic instability may appeal to some, although it doesn't escape the same pitfalls of trust and confidence that any currency endures. The author astutely unravels the intricacies of the financial system, making a compelling case for the fragility of money as an entity reliant on collective faith. His observations about the US's economic trajectory, rampant money printing, and reckless spending raise valid concerns. Yet, the book also highlights the discord among economists, painting them as a chaotic group whose polar opposite predictions often seem self-serving or confused. While the book may not convince everyone to invest in gold, it certainly fosters a deeper understanding of our precarious economic climate, making it a worthwhile read.
February 28, 2021
Rickards’ articles are republished on conspiracy laden sites like zerohedge, generally ranting about inevitable upcoming roiling of the markets and sure-to-be crashes, whipping up their conspiracy minded readers with the latest in deep state plots and subterfuge knowing insider information that the mainstream press is just too timid and cowed to discuss. It’s a real disservice to publish this kind of stuff for the average investors wanting to know what to do with their hard earned dollar. In the end with these types of books, it’s always gold or mining investments, or some other type of asset class that they themselves have lost money in and are hoping to pump up – if he was 20 years younger this would likely be filled with how Bitcoin was going to the moon and other blockchain hype. Jack Bogle this aint…
July 9, 2020
Много съм щастлив, че се обогатих (почти като уран-235) с тази книга. Написана е на разбираем език и всички термини са разказани, описани и сравнени с подходящи примери. Книгата си я поръчах по времето на началото на "пандемията" на COVID-19 и ако бях е прочел още тогава (сиреч, преди 3 месеца), сега щях да съм вече с по-високо благоденство. Насоките, който са дадени в книгата, се развиват сякаш е писана днеска сутринта (09.07.2020) !!!!
Има надежда, че има време да се реагира и да се вземат правилните индивидуални действия!
В заключение, едина от интересните метафори:
"Фактът, че самолетът лети през гъстата мъгла на неправилни предположения за цените в миналото и степента на разпределение, изглежда , не смущава пътниците ни най-малко"
Има надежда, че има време да се реагира и да се вземат правилните индивидуални действия!
В заключение, едина от интересните метафори:
"Фактът, че самолетът лети през гъстата мъгла на неправилни предположения за цените в миналото и степента на разпределение, изглежда , не смущава пътниците ни най-малко"
September 13, 2023
A follow up after "Currency Wars" and "Death of Money". In this book, Rickards, mentions the 7 investment secrets for us readers to consider and play closer attention towards. Some "secrets" and now in open play already, and the world is taking shape differently based on these strategies. We must stay up to date on many issues.
While Rickards may have simplified the study of finance and investment to easier terms (great for a noob like me) there is still so much more to learn and understand deeper. The message is clear; diverse, not keep all my eggs into one basket. That's self-hedging, for the instability and risk if all in one pot can be a cost heavy to bear. Keep cash, gold and as much liquid assets as possible. Stay informed, stay updated, keep learning.
While Rickards may have simplified the study of finance and investment to easier terms (great for a noob like me) there is still so much more to learn and understand deeper. The message is clear; diverse, not keep all my eggs into one basket. That's self-hedging, for the instability and risk if all in one pot can be a cost heavy to bear. Keep cash, gold and as much liquid assets as possible. Stay informed, stay updated, keep learning.
June 7, 2025
One main theme it demonstrated in detail is the Achilles' sword hanging over us—the debt in the major economic market. This theme is accompanied by triggering factors such as the unemployment rate, tariff wars, and fear.
The author emphasizes the impact of cognitive behavioral science while explaining the economy and highlights the uncertainty that accompanies it.
In addition to the information- and history-packed content, I appreciate that it also provides a simple personal finance suggestion: 10% in gold, 30% in cash, and the rest in other investments such as stocks, enterprises, and so on. Meanwhile, be cautious of high-growth tech companies that may be overvalued, and pay attention to public services companies, especially during economic turmoil.
The author emphasizes the impact of cognitive behavioral science while explaining the economy and highlights the uncertainty that accompanies it.
In addition to the information- and history-packed content, I appreciate that it also provides a simple personal finance suggestion: 10% in gold, 30% in cash, and the rest in other investments such as stocks, enterprises, and so on. Meanwhile, be cautious of high-growth tech companies that may be overvalued, and pay attention to public services companies, especially during economic turmoil.
August 19, 2019
Compelling evidence for an economic crash of epic proportions. Rikards provides in-depth reasons for the crash which will revolve around massive government debt. I didn’t realize China was massively in debt and had exaggerated it’s growth. The only real place to be is gold although Rikards gives some other options, the one he mentions the mist is gold. So reduce / eliminate your own debt, start stockpiling your food and meds, invest in gold, hold some cash at home and sit back and enjoy the ride!
January 3, 2021
By the end of 2018, the economy was already on the verge of breakdown. Inflated asset prices, near-zero interest rates, bubbles everywhere. Rather than simply asserting it, the author travels across the world through meetings with powerful business, economic, and political figures, speaking about and diagnosing the pitfalls of our current approach to the economy.
In painful detail, it tells the story of our off-the-rails economy and those who try to control it, ending right before COVID hit and gave them the "miracle" they needed to bail themselves out.
In painful detail, it tells the story of our off-the-rails economy and those who try to control it, ending right before COVID hit and gave them the "miracle" they needed to bail themselves out.
April 17, 2021
Before buying the book, I listened to some of Rickards’ interviews online. In a good way, he writes the way he speaks. And so the book came off immensely readable despite the dense subject matter. His analyses is cogent, rife with convincing examples, and had a personal touch necessary for engaging contemporary readers.
As a Malaysian, it was also pleasantly surprising to read in the sub-chapter, “A Gold Standard without Gold” in Chapter Six, the author’s perspective and relationship with Dr. Mahathir.
This is my first Rickards’ book. I have made the intention to acquire the other three.
As a Malaysian, it was also pleasantly surprising to read in the sub-chapter, “A Gold Standard without Gold” in Chapter Six, the author’s perspective and relationship with Dr. Mahathir.
This is my first Rickards’ book. I have made the intention to acquire the other three.
April 23, 2023
I thoroughly enjoyed this book even though at times it was too “smart” to get straight away but I’ve learnt a lot and most of it is distressing! I’ve learnt about the state of the US sovereign debt and why it is important further away in Europe, I’ve learnt about alternative strategies for investment (ie gold) and even though the book sometimes reads too gloomy, some of the things (like overvaluation of FAANG stocks) did indeed come through in Jan 2022. I’d like to read more books of this author now
September 8, 2019
Definitely causes one to question a lot of accepted truths
A pretty eye opening book for me about some of the more negative use cases and future outcomes that our decade of low interest rates, QE and historically high debt to GDP ratios that has brought the US to the precipice financially that we face today. Will we see a big crash or will we experience the lost decade as Japan did. Interesting times are ahead and some massive fortunes will me made in this chaos.
A pretty eye opening book for me about some of the more negative use cases and future outcomes that our decade of low interest rates, QE and historically high debt to GDP ratios that has brought the US to the precipice financially that we face today. Will we see a big crash or will we experience the lost decade as Japan did. Interesting times are ahead and some massive fortunes will me made in this chaos.
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