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Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers
‘Morland predicts the future of humanity in 10 illuminating statistics (could the Japanese and Italians now go the way of the dodo?) and looks back to how ebbs and flows of population have shaped history, such as the Soviet Union’s plummeting birth rate in the 1960s, which hastened the end of the Cold War.’ - The Daily Telegraph ‘The Best Books for Summer 2022’The great forces of population change – the balance of births, deaths and migrations – have made the world what it is today. They have determined which countries are superpowers and which languish in relative obscurity, which economies top the international league tables and which are at best also-rans.The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.Tomorrow’s People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way – portents for still larger migrations ahead – which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change – remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production – which have made all these epochal developments possible.Tomorrow’s People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it.
313 pages, Kindle Edition
First published March 17, 2022
27 people are currently reading
624 people want to read
About the author
Paul Morland
9 books25 followersDr Paul Morland is associate research fellow at Birkbeck College, University of London and a renowned authority on demography. A French speaker with dual German and British citizenship, Paul was educated at Oxford University, and was awarded his PhD from the University of London.
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Displaying 1 - 29 of 29 reviews
September 5, 2023
The secret to the future of humanity lies in the level of education of the female population.
May 10, 2022
The world population is just shy of 8 billion and is the largest it has ever been and shows no signs of slowing anytime soon. Or does it? The factors that have brought us to this point in the global population are changing and the demographic will be utterly different in the coming decades.
In Tomorrow’s People, Paul Morland takes ten numbers that show different ways that it is changing and speculates on the way that the global population will differ in the future. Beginning with the number 10, the current infant mortality rate in Peru per 1000 births, he shows how the advent of medicine and better healthcare means that they have been able to halve the rate in only 25 years. This doesn’t’ mean that they will have a population boom though, as people who lose fewer children have fewer babies in the end.
His next number is 4 billion, this is the current population of Africa, and as he says, it is this figure that will change global politics in so many ways. This continent is growing so fast as it has a high birth rate and there is improving infant mortality. Not only will the population head out from there but there is massive internal migration too with a whole series of factors behind it. Just over a century ago there were about a dozen cities with a population of over one million people. Now China alone has 121 cities that have a population that size. India has over forty now and most people couldn’t name hardly any of them. In this chapter, he explains how the urban environment sucks in people and resources and how they will set the trends for the population in future
The figure that is needed to maintain a steady population is about 2.1 children. In Singapore, though the fertility rate is 1. We are beginning to think that overpopulation of the world might not be a problem as many countries are now showing these low rates for a raft of reasons, which he goes into in this chapter. This coupled with ageing populations, the median age in Catalonia is now 43 and in other countries is higher still is also adding to the decline in some countries’ populations.
I thought the concept behind this book really worked well. Morland takes the way that the world is changing by exploring ten numbers from populations and countries around the world and expanding them in detail. Not only is it a way of understanding how we have got to where we are at the moment, but it is a good way of seeing the way that the world is heading in the short and medium-term. For me this book worked really well, I liked the way that a simple statistic can explain so much about the world in the past and the way that it is going to be shaped tomorrow.
In Tomorrow’s People, Paul Morland takes ten numbers that show different ways that it is changing and speculates on the way that the global population will differ in the future. Beginning with the number 10, the current infant mortality rate in Peru per 1000 births, he shows how the advent of medicine and better healthcare means that they have been able to halve the rate in only 25 years. This doesn’t’ mean that they will have a population boom though, as people who lose fewer children have fewer babies in the end.
His next number is 4 billion, this is the current population of Africa, and as he says, it is this figure that will change global politics in so many ways. This continent is growing so fast as it has a high birth rate and there is improving infant mortality. Not only will the population head out from there but there is massive internal migration too with a whole series of factors behind it. Just over a century ago there were about a dozen cities with a population of over one million people. Now China alone has 121 cities that have a population that size. India has over forty now and most people couldn’t name hardly any of them. In this chapter, he explains how the urban environment sucks in people and resources and how they will set the trends for the population in future
The figure that is needed to maintain a steady population is about 2.1 children. In Singapore, though the fertility rate is 1. We are beginning to think that overpopulation of the world might not be a problem as many countries are now showing these low rates for a raft of reasons, which he goes into in this chapter. This coupled with ageing populations, the median age in Catalonia is now 43 and in other countries is higher still is also adding to the decline in some countries’ populations.
I thought the concept behind this book really worked well. Morland takes the way that the world is changing by exploring ten numbers from populations and countries around the world and expanding them in detail. Not only is it a way of understanding how we have got to where we are at the moment, but it is a good way of seeing the way that the world is heading in the short and medium-term. For me this book worked really well, I liked the way that a simple statistic can explain so much about the world in the past and the way that it is going to be shaped tomorrow.
January 8, 2023
An informative if unexciting read that explains key trends and future projections in demography, education and food production. Besides a few interesting facts and figures, however, this book would be nothing revelatory to anyone sufficiently well-versed in A-Level Geography.
June 20, 2024
Read if you want facts and numbers. The conclusions are mostly old news.
December 19, 2024
This book promises a look over the edge at the near future of humanity. Although packed with facts, it fails, ultimately, to deliver. It would be fair to say that Morland stands on the centre-right of politics, and has very little sympathy for doom-mongers that preach imminent catastrophe, whether from climate change or overpopulation. And with good reason — Marxist policies on feeding populations have always led to disaster (‘Marxism Today: Famine Tomorrow’); and, in any case, doomsayers make political capital from preaching bad news. As Morland shows, the world’s human population is ageing, and is set to top out and begin a decline perhaps towards the end of the present century. In many countries it is below the natural replacement rate. In recent centuries the world has undergone at least one, and in many cases two, so-called demographic transitions. In the first, life expectancy at birth is increased but fertility remains high, so the population balloons. This is essentially what happened in Britain in the Industrial Revolution and led Thomas Malthus to predict widespread starvation. Paul Ehrlich was still doing this in 1968 in his book The Population Bomb when world population growth was at its peak. But then came the second demographic transition, when people moved to cities and had fewer children. This is what is happening now in most countries. In some the population is contracting at a remarkable rate, and whole swathes of countryside have been abandoned in countries as varied and widespread as Bulgaria, Russia and Japan. City dwellers have less environmental impact than people in the country. And there’s another side benefit – older populations tend to be less warlike. On the whole, there are fewer conflicts in the world than there used to be. The big exception is sub-Saharan Africa. Africa — and especially West Africa — is in the throes of the first but not the second demographic transition. As Morland shows, the population of Africa is booming even as it is shrinking elsewhere. Tomorrow’s people are likely to be more African than Chinese or Indian. After noting that the population of Africa will be four billion in 2100, I was waiting in vain for the other shoe to drop. A burgeoning population is a young population, and bellicose. The increasing drought in the Sahel adds to the endemic corruption and poor governance that are ever exploited by revolution and war. The ravages of Islamist militancy in countries such as Mali make few headlines. The multi-nation war that rages, on and off, in the Congo Basin, even fewer. Europe is already feeling the pressure of northward migration as conflict and climate make life in parts of Africa increasingly intolerable. Eventually, Africa will settle down, and the population will start to decline. Most migration in Africa stays within that continent, and the movement is generally towards mega-cities such as Lagos, after which the second demographic transition will take place. But the road before that might be rocky. Morland really should have said so.
October 27, 2024
Paul Morland, born in 1964 and residing in London, is a demographer and an associate research fellow at Birkbeck, University of London and a senior member at St Antony's College, Oxford. His book “Tomorrow’s People” examines the impact of demographic changes on society, analyzing trends in aging and birth rates in developed countries and discussing how these trends may eventually affect developing nations. Notably, Morland uses global statistics to approach demographic shifts through an interdisciplinary lens, connecting history, economics, geography, and culture. This approach makes his book unique, as he encourages readers to consider future decisions based on extensive data.
A recurring theme is the importance of individual choice in shaping humanity’s future, a stance that suggests a move away from relying solely on government decisions. The book also includes many insights on Japan, my country, discussing innovations for an aging society, declining birth rates and women’s social roles, and Japan’s strict immigration policies. These reflections provide a global perspective on Japan’s unique challenges and achievements.
However, some parts of the book lack depth. For instance, Morland’s praise of the "Green Revolution" on page 228 overlooks critiques, such as its role in increasing poverty in developing countries due to the high cost of pesticides and hybrid seeds. Similarly, on pages 234–235, his comments on obesity in Palestinian territories imply economic improvement but overlook that lower-income groups often consume high-sugar, high-fat, and low-nutrition foods due to affordability issues.
Despite these criticisms, Morland’s book provides valuable, accessible insights into demographics for Japanese readers. With appropriate supplementary content from Japanese demographic experts, a Japanese translation could facilitate productive discussion on demographic challenges.
A recurring theme is the importance of individual choice in shaping humanity’s future, a stance that suggests a move away from relying solely on government decisions. The book also includes many insights on Japan, my country, discussing innovations for an aging society, declining birth rates and women’s social roles, and Japan’s strict immigration policies. These reflections provide a global perspective on Japan’s unique challenges and achievements.
However, some parts of the book lack depth. For instance, Morland’s praise of the "Green Revolution" on page 228 overlooks critiques, such as its role in increasing poverty in developing countries due to the high cost of pesticides and hybrid seeds. Similarly, on pages 234–235, his comments on obesity in Palestinian territories imply economic improvement but overlook that lower-income groups often consume high-sugar, high-fat, and low-nutrition foods due to affordability issues.
Despite these criticisms, Morland’s book provides valuable, accessible insights into demographics for Japanese readers. With appropriate supplementary content from Japanese demographic experts, a Japanese translation could facilitate productive discussion on demographic challenges.
April 23, 2023
3.5 stars. It's a great overview and update of what you've learned in demography in high school or college. Much of the world and population has changed and this book gives you a light and quick overview. It won't answer all your deeper questions such as, what would happen to the decline of the superpowers we now have? Or what happens when cultures die? Or to the planet.
But what it will do is give you enough appetite to ask further questions and look into them. I would even say for demographers dealing in macro data, he's pretty positive about what will happen in the world. Not overpopulation despite the size but a population collapse. He skates over in depth ones.
I did learn several interesting stuff like the decoupling of small family size to economic wealth provided there's education and violence is linked not to poverty but age. How GMOs have continued to save the Global South and will continue to do so. We all know that Japan is collapsing but not Bulgaria. Little tidbits of facts that are interesting and a jumping board to other books and questions.
It's a fun light read when you want to know stuff but busy with other heavier books.
But what it will do is give you enough appetite to ask further questions and look into them. I would even say for demographers dealing in macro data, he's pretty positive about what will happen in the world. Not overpopulation despite the size but a population collapse. He skates over in depth ones.
I did learn several interesting stuff like the decoupling of small family size to economic wealth provided there's education and violence is linked not to poverty but age. How GMOs have continued to save the Global South and will continue to do so. We all know that Japan is collapsing but not Bulgaria. Little tidbits of facts that are interesting and a jumping board to other books and questions.
It's a fun light read when you want to know stuff but busy with other heavier books.
July 13, 2022
Paul Morland has seen the future, and it's about...people.
In particular, it's about the number of people we'll have living on Earth fifty years from now.
Looking carefully into falling birth rates AND falling death rates, Morland finds a planet whose population is stabilizing and heading for reduction. A planet where humans are gathering more and more in urban areas. A planet where a higher and higher proportion of the population will be African in the future.
Chock full of insights, this book really takes the long view. For many years in my own country, the United States, economic growth surged as a result of "free" land (stolen from indigenous people) and low wages fueled by immigration. Looking ahead, countries have already begun to entice skilled migrants as birth rates throughout the developed world have fallen below replacement levels.
New models of economic growth and stability will be needed in the era that is to come.
In particular, it's about the number of people we'll have living on Earth fifty years from now.
Looking carefully into falling birth rates AND falling death rates, Morland finds a planet whose population is stabilizing and heading for reduction. A planet where humans are gathering more and more in urban areas. A planet where a higher and higher proportion of the population will be African in the future.
Chock full of insights, this book really takes the long view. For many years in my own country, the United States, economic growth surged as a result of "free" land (stolen from indigenous people) and low wages fueled by immigration. Looking ahead, countries have already begun to entice skilled migrants as birth rates throughout the developed world have fallen below replacement levels.
New models of economic growth and stability will be needed in the era that is to come.
April 16, 2023
A fascinating book, very easy to read, illustrating the nuances and drivers behind familiar topics relating to population such as ageing societies and predictions on future global population.
Observations such as ageing populations result in reduced likelihood of revolution or wars.
Who knows the future? Behind the calamitous headlines, there is so much positive progress in improving people’s lives which this book illustrates.
I appreciate books that help provide evidence based observations (which this does) so I can feel I can understand why future events happen.
Some reviewers criticise the book for stating facts that are obvious to them - and I agree, some of the facts are to anyone interested in this subject, but Paul presents them as part of an overall picture or conclusion. At the same time I didn’t feel he was forcing conclusions on me.
Well worth reading for a constructive observation on population and the future of humanity.
Observations such as ageing populations result in reduced likelihood of revolution or wars.
Who knows the future? Behind the calamitous headlines, there is so much positive progress in improving people’s lives which this book illustrates.
I appreciate books that help provide evidence based observations (which this does) so I can feel I can understand why future events happen.
Some reviewers criticise the book for stating facts that are obvious to them - and I agree, some of the facts are to anyone interested in this subject, but Paul presents them as part of an overall picture or conclusion. At the same time I didn’t feel he was forcing conclusions on me.
Well worth reading for a constructive observation on population and the future of humanity.
September 20, 2023
Morland discuss 10 items related to population growth and decline in a generalizing but not strict context of rules. The strongest advantage of the book is that he is not restricted by the nonsensical limits of political correctness, and he's letting some comments to slip through the cracks that debunk liberal myths.
On the other hand, he is self-imprisoned in a cosmopolitan, liberal way of thinking, which leads him focus a little too much on the numbers and neglect the significance of qualitative analysis of numbers instead of just a quantitative one.
Maybe the most important message from the book is that there is no pre-defined future for demographic problems, the assumptions that scientists make are great leading to significant difference between their predictions (or even the assessment of the current condition) and a lot are at stake in the area of religious/ideological/ethnic way of self-identification and formation of the society.
On the other hand, he is self-imprisoned in a cosmopolitan, liberal way of thinking, which leads him focus a little too much on the numbers and neglect the significance of qualitative analysis of numbers instead of just a quantitative one.
Maybe the most important message from the book is that there is no pre-defined future for demographic problems, the assumptions that scientists make are great leading to significant difference between their predictions (or even the assessment of the current condition) and a lot are at stake in the area of religious/ideological/ethnic way of self-identification and formation of the society.
September 8, 2022
Ooooh, this was a fascinating book! I don't think I have ever read a book that was written by a demographer before and it certainly piqued my interest, well and truly.
Paul Morland explains how populations change and he raises some interesting questions as well. There were some things that I suspected about why a particular country is not doing as well as others, and there were other things that I had clearly not thought deeply enough about and the author brought these to my attention. I know I am being a bit vague, but it is hard to describe this book.
Just know that 10 different factors regarding populations and how they change are discussed in this book and it will really make you think. Eye-opening, and a little frustrating too.
4.5 stars from me.
Paul Morland explains how populations change and he raises some interesting questions as well. There were some things that I suspected about why a particular country is not doing as well as others, and there were other things that I had clearly not thought deeply enough about and the author brought these to my attention. I know I am being a bit vague, but it is hard to describe this book.
Just know that 10 different factors regarding populations and how they change are discussed in this book and it will really make you think. Eye-opening, and a little frustrating too.
4.5 stars from me.
December 11, 2022
I bought this book after hearing Paul Morland speak at TEDx Vienna. This book will open your eyes to the way changes to populations through things like aging, education and fertility can affect things like war and jobs and which nations will be super powers. The saddest thing in the book is that some young people may only ever know authoritarianism because there are not enough young people to make a revolution. There are many positives in the book particularly the increasing priority in female education. The conclusion also left me hoping that I’m around to see the future.
January 30, 2023
A rare non fiction book which is exactly the right length, not 30x the right length. Fascinating, fact based, reasonable, and fun to read, despite some troubling information he brings up. This book had shifted my perspective on a way that few have in the last decade, giving an entirely new (for me) legs through which to view the trends in human events.
The usual left of center biases I expect from academics and writers is present but not so much as to be annoying, and it does but at all take away from his conclusions.
Five stars!
The usual left of center biases I expect from academics and writers is present but not so much as to be annoying, and it does but at all take away from his conclusions.
Five stars!
December 7, 2024
يتحدث عن عشر أرقام مهمة يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرات علي الاتجاه البشري نحو التطور
من هه الارقام: عمر الإنسان الي بدأ في التزايد في لفترة الأخيرة، فقبل نحو قرن من الزمان كان الإنسان لا يعيش لأكثر من أرعبن سنه
والقليل من البشر كانوا يتخطون هذه المرحلة العمرية
وضرب المؤلف مثلا بعائلة مالكة في بريطانيا وذكر تقريرا عن أعمارهم وكيفية تأثير الموت المبكر علي وراثة العرش، وضرب مثلا بعائلة شديدة الفقر في بنجلاديش، كان فقراء بنجلاديش أكثر خظا في البقاء علي قيد الحياة
أيضا نسبة بقاءؤ المواليد بعد ولادتهم علي قيد الحياة، فقد كانت النسبة ضئية جدا سابقا وانخفضت حتي كادت تنعدم في أغلب بلاد العالم
كثير من الأرقام المشابهة التي يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرا عالميا علي تحول نوع البشر
من هه الأرقام عدد البشر علي الأرض وكيف ستتحمل الأرض بقاء كل هذا العدد
الكتاب ممتاز لكن انا لا أهوي الأرقام والاحصاءات
من هه الارقام: عمر الإنسان الي بدأ في التزايد في لفترة الأخيرة، فقبل نحو قرن من الزمان كان الإنسان لا يعيش لأكثر من أرعبن سنه
والقليل من البشر كانوا يتخطون هذه المرحلة العمرية
وضرب المؤلف مثلا بعائلة مالكة في بريطانيا وذكر تقريرا عن أعمارهم وكيفية تأثير الموت المبكر علي وراثة العرش، وضرب مثلا بعائلة شديدة الفقر في بنجلاديش، كان فقراء بنجلاديش أكثر خظا في البقاء علي قيد الحياة
أيضا نسبة بقاءؤ المواليد بعد ولادتهم علي قيد الحياة، فقد كانت النسبة ضئية جدا سابقا وانخفضت حتي كادت تنعدم في أغلب بلاد العالم
كثير من الأرقام المشابهة التي يمكن اعتبارها مؤشرا عالميا علي تحول نوع البشر
من هه الأرقام عدد البشر علي الأرض وكيف ستتحمل الأرض بقاء كل هذا العدد
الكتاب ممتاز لكن انا لا أهوي الأرقام والاحصاءات
July 16, 2022
I haven't finished this audiobook, the narration is terrible and boring me to tears. Also I suspect it's just saying much of what we already know, that our increasing numbers are a pox on the planet and women's education and contraception is the key to keeping our family sizes smaller.
January 6, 2023
Libro molto interessante, che porta a considerare aspetti dell'evoluzione demografica mondiale apparentemente contrari alla narrazione prevalente dei media. Gli ultimi 3-4 capitoli però mi sono sembrati un po' troppo approssimativi.
February 25, 2023
A really good insight into population and demography trends with a balanced look over all continents. Losing a star because of the conclusion. The author’s views on climate change and vulnerability are completely outdated for such a new release.
June 5, 2023
The book is interesting, but the writing could use some improvement. I had to read some sentences three times because the author's grammar is at times a bit all over the place. Furthermore, his sentences sometimes lack cohesion with each other, and he repeats himself all too often.
July 6, 2023
Light reading. Abundance of Fun facts. Wished there was more depth of unique analysis and perspective on the ‘so what’ implications of these numbers. Nonetheless, a good entry level read to discover more on each topic of interest.
August 1, 2022
A good book if you know nothing about the topic, but dull to read if you have even introductory knowledge
October 15, 2022
A must read if interested in how future world will be.
July 15, 2023
Very interesting
September 9, 2023
Excellent summary of demographic trends
February 28, 2024
This was a really interesting book but I found that it was written in quite an academic style.
August 5, 2024
Scrapes a four. Fascinating and important subject but a lot of repetition.
January 4, 2025
Good and very interesting content. Thoroughly annoyed by the fact the numbers on the cover have little to no relevance to the actual chapters
August 17, 2025
Well written. The author's pro-Israel bias shines through. Factual rehash of well-known arguments. Nothing insightful, but a useful primer.
October 18, 2025
A nice, stimulating airport book on demography, impeccably edited for political correctness, yet somehow still manages to convey a pro-natal perspective.
January 22, 2023
Libro interessante e ben scritto, che affronta temi demografici e sociali con un'attenzione e una precisione non indifferenti, risultando mai banale. Stile semplice e allo stesso tempo accurato: consigliato.
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