Making Sense Of A United Ireland

by Brendan O'Leary

Will Ireland really reunite?

A century ago the resolution to Ireland’s long struggle for independence was a settlement that saw six of its northern counties remain in the United Kingdom while the other twenty-six formed the new Republic of Ireland. Since partition the unification of the two parts of the island has seemed impossible, particularly because of the bloody legacy of past conflict.

However, by 2030, if not sooner, demographic and electoral advantages of Ulster unionists, who wish to remain part of the UK, will be over. And in the light of Brexit, the rising popularity of the Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin, political developments both sides of the border, and within Great Britain, Irish unification referendums will become increasingly likely. Yet even those who want these to happen are not prepared.

Making Sense of a United Ireland is a landmark exploration of this most contentious of issues. Distinguished political scientist Brendan O'Leary - a global expert on divided places, who has been profoundly engaged with the Irish question for nearly four decades - argues that the time to consider the future of the island of Ireland is now.

Genres: Ireland, Politics, Nonfiction, History, Audiobook

376 pages, Hardcover

Published September 1, 2022

Reviews

[Eoghan O'Brien · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really enjoyed this. A serious and comprehensive view on the considerations and models for a future United Ireland. It really highlighted to me how far off governments and Irish political parties in the south are in their thinking and preparation for a future referendum.

I did feel it read a little bit too academic at times.

Essential reading for anyone interested in engaging with the topic (which should be everyone :) )

[Monica · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading for anyone interested in Ireland’s political future!! Rather than arguing for or against the idea of a United Ireland, O’Leary argues that unification is reasonably inevitable and instead makes a strong case for starting preparations and planning now to avoid brexit-style referendum blunders down the line.

[Ciaran McGuiggan]

Bit too academic for me but definitely in depth and has made for some very interesting conversations about what a new Ireland might look like.

[Cian Davis · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fascinating 🤔

[Killian · Rating 4 out of 5]

A hugely detailed analysis of all the issues surrounding the idea of a United Ireland. Should be required reading for politicians north and south

[Mary Ellen · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book does not argue for a united Ireland, although the author is clearly an advocate. Instead it starts from the premise that a united Ireland is an inevitable outcome, possibly as soon as 2030. As such, the author explores numerous aspects that should be considered in order for this to happen as smoothly as possible.

The author has clearly researched this in depth and frequently goes into more detail than I needed, making it feel a bit dry at times. However I did find it very interesting overall.

[Differengenera · Rating 4 out of 5]

Brendan O’Leary is an academic and a serious, well-known commentator on the prospects for a United Ireland. I hope to take the time in a subsequent post to assess his career as an advisor to officials in post-conflict societies, but for the moment I’ll be limiting myself to a few thoughts provoked by his book Making Sense of a United Ireland and his work in the Royal Irish Academy, which publishes the results of statistically representative opinions and attitudes within Irish society regarding the form an hypothesised future state might take.

My perspectives on this are complicated. Ending partition would be the righting of an historical injustice, but one of its less important facets. I am ashamed of how badly citizens of the twenty-six counties have performed in making a state for which people have given and taken life. There has been significant economic and social advancement from the state’s foundation, a creditable record of cultural achievement, neutrality and international co-operation, but this is a record which is being undone by extremes of wealth inequality, a NATO or Atlanticist alignment; further evidence if any were needed of a regnant visionlessness given such affiliations are in their autumn years. A depressing index of the direction of travel can be seen in the results of a 2023 ARINS poll, which notes that lower-earners in the twenty-six counties increasingly align with loyalists in their racist views, a constituency which until a few years, I would have thought was confined to the cultures of imperial or ex-imperial nation states.

My personal preference would be for a socialist republic. By ‘socialist’ I mean an economy subject to democratic control, towards the moderation or abolition of class differences and the universal provision of socialised goods such as education, housing and childcare. It would be militarily neutral and advocate for peace and the rights of oppressed peoples in international bodies. By republic I mean something more symbolic. A secular state, a constitutional commitment to anti-sectarianism and asylum for those fleeing persecution or hardship. I regard this as having more pertinence for a growing (but still relatively small) immigrant population rather than just Protestant or unionist - a finding I found amusing in that poll I mentioned above arose from EU or non-EU participants who asked why there shouldn’t be reserved ministerial or veto powers for them - because I see the state having a leadership role to play in undermining rather than encourage the efforts of unionists who would seek to undermine or sabotage the functioning of the state.

Though this is the sole vision for a United Ireland I would be excited by its prospects are remote. The closest thing to this model is something like Cuba during the Cold War, which existed under a highly specific set of circumstances, attested to by the lack of other exemplars. There is also the chance that Castro was history in fatigues and doesn’t come along only once in a century, but I digress; in the advanced industrial capitalist societies of the type that exist on both states on the island, there are no present models for a successful movement for universal rights. No currently existing organisation has a convincing map for doing it in the absence of a landless peasantry, let alone with the combined presence of a petty-bourgeois property owning class and a not entirely separate population of wage earners too internally differentiated to enforce their interests, whether they have any in common or not.

Until recently the momentum seemed to be behind a post-historical demographic drift, which would follow the trajectory of Sinn Féin’s moderation into a responsible party of government and capitalise on the twenty-six county state’s status as a low-regulation / high consumption economy, highly integrated with European and USian markets. We saw this in SF’s unexpectedly high showing in the 2020 General Election, seemingly driven by a generalised frustration with FFG’s failures on resolving the many systemic issues besetting the state, foremost among which is the shortage of available housing. COVID was the first of the number of crises which have set this agenda back by knocking SF into its current pattern of confusion and vacillation, as anti-social elements were catalysed against lockdown and immigrants, encouraged both directly and indirectly by USian tech oligarchs and a partitionist D4-centric media innately hostile to those who seek to transform the nature of the state or state institutions, however modestly. The result is plain to see: climate denialists in office and SF’s disgraceful and self-defeating capitulation to anti-trans and anti-immigrant positions.

I hold two contradictory ideas in my head at the same time here. If SF do decide to get their act together I am confident a broad coalition supportive of a decommodifying and anti-anti-immigration politics is there for them to win - a constituency to which the Catholic nationalist working class in the north would be fundamental. But this is not solely a dynamic of betrayal at the top, but a symptom of contemporary political parties’ relative thinness. Professionalisation and PR-driven politics rooted in participation in state institutions foment an establishment Weltanschauung in the leadership. I agree SF are betraying what I and I imagine a good proportion of their membership would regard as what is valuable in their organisations’ history, but I don’t think they’re capable of the required mobilisation from above, I think there needs to be that projection from below, which tend to only emerge in an extraordinary situation.

My prediction is that inter-capitalist competition and instability arising out of the decline of the US, disorganisation at a European level, the rise of China will shape even the most economistic demands; cost of living crises further stoked by anti-immigrant politics, rising food prices. Decarbonisation opening issues of sourcing from a China which plans to move on Taiwan. This will create opportunities, but as anyone who lives in the six will tell you it can also generate fatalism; debates about Jesus Christ taking the place of concrete actions to fill potholes for example.

That unforeseen circumstances arising out of turbulence and crisis is what shapes geo-political boundaries can be seen firstly in how dated Brexit has become as O’Leary’s most significant macro referent and secondly in the choice of case studies or examples. Germany, Korea, Cyprus, the unity of Syria and Egypt, lack applicability to the present context. However O’Leary can’t be faulted for not seeing the future, or rooting policy discussion in potential ruptures. His work has continued within ARINS and the central lesson he seeks to extract from his account is the importance of preparation, detail and consultation. Well-taken points. But I’m struggling to find the space is for policy and contemporary governance sa lá atá inniu ann. I think we have Facebook brain from below and ‘anything we can do, we can do’ at the top. The problem isn’t state architecture, policy design or messaging but breaking the monopoly a managerial centrism has on this issue.

[Hannah JB · Rating 5 out of 5]

Currently reading - in slow motion. I tend to read physical books while on public transit, or on lunch break at work. Until I find a cover for this cover, this is something I'll read on holiday or at home. I live in East Belfast and work in city centre and recognise that people living outside of the North reading this book can't appreciate how radical this print and design style choice is. This would, at best, get wide eyed stares on the bus or train - and at work, would absolutely be cause for a call from HR. Even in conversation with a colleague who fancies himself an academic centrist - merely mentioning this book, all while being open to other book recommendations, political platforms, or other general counterpoints deeply damaged that relationship. I've not heard from him since. I'm enthralled and deeply invested and curious, but am also recognising more each day that the salience of an ideology is one thing, while the actual cultural environment may be quite another.

[Lee · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well informed perspective and the author achieves much more than anything you'll find in the media or from political parties either side of the border in outlining what might actually happen to bring about a border poll, and what changes would be felt north and south. Frankly everything else you can find on this unification is mostly hot air and flag waving - from both proponents and opponents. I would like to have read the author's perspective on what happens to British private businesses, infrastructure, media landscape, adopting the euro and other more practical matters.

This book would have been worthy of a 5/5 if it were a bit more fun and engaging, whereas some readers may be put off by the slightly dry, academic approach. 4/5 from me.

[Eamonn · Rating 4 out of 5]

Extremely informative. I am an American with only a bit of prior knowledge about the issues discussed, but I still found it to be well worth my time, and I recommend it to anyone who wants to be better informed about how the next several decades of Ireland's politics will be shaped.

[Cormac · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thoughtful, well-considered and informative. Intentionally raises more questions than it does provide answers. Personal suggestions from the author are kept to a minimum, and are pragmatic when raised.

[Robert · Rating 1 out of 5]

A United Ireland will involve dealing with many complex and difficult challenges, but unfortunately, this book doesn't come to grip with them. Most of the book focuses on minor or irrelevant details (there are two whole chapters on the d'hondt system which could be used to select ministers) while not spending enough time on the real challenges.

The author takes an overly legalistic approach and seems to believe that a United Ireland will be a success so long as we have the right constitutional amendments. There is a lot of talk about how Unionists should be respected and consulted, but the book never explains what this means in practice. Nor does it ever seriously consider what will happen if Unionists refuse to accept the Irish state and become an isolated and resistant minority.

The chapter on economics was atrocious and the author fundamentally misunderstood the issue. Firstly, he ignored all economic studies that show the high cost of a United Ireland and instead only considers one positive study, without mentioning that it was funded by Friends of Sinn Féin. He then says that the subvention is only 3% of GDP but Irish economic growth has averaged 6% over the last decade, therefore annual growth can pay the subvention twice over!

I was genuinely shocked at such a terrible misunderstanding.

The figures he cites don't take into account inflation, GDP distortions or that growth has been high partly because the economy was in a terrible state in 2010. But most of all, he fails to realise that the subvention is a budget cost and not all economic growth goes straight into the budget. Just because the economy grows by €10bn, doesn't mean the government can spend an extra €10bn. The author later says the subvention is really only 0.7% of GDP, which he calls "close to a rounding error."

[Chris · Rating 4 out of 5]

There are a lot of issues which need to be addressed when thinking about a reunified Ireland, as this book so ably points out. Another reviewer has said the book raises more questions than it answers, and I agree: in a sense it has to. We need to think long and hard about what we want a united Ireland to mean, if we really do want it. One big take-away from this book for me was that the reunification of Germany, where the west simply swallowed up the east without any constitutional changes, apart from allocating seats in the Bundestag to the east, is not the best way to do it, even more so given the history of Ireland. It was good to read the debunking of some popular myths: that Northern Ireland would be a complete drain on the finances of the Republic after unification. On present figures maybe, but in a united Ireland, with a different economic dynamic that may not be quite the case.

Another reviewer has described this book 'as dry as burnt toast'. Well, these are difficult matters to reach some sort of equitable solution to, and many (almost certainly most) people will not necessarily appreciate it all the ins and outs. If this book is dry, then perhaps it has done its job!

[Cold · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was a bad book given how much he obviously knows about Ireland and the prospect of unification.

O'Leary thinks it's a dispassionate analysis that builds a case throughout the book. In reality, he ignores all the difficult sides of Irish Nationalists until the end. He'll spend page after page lecturing about how the British state cannot be trusted, and then acts like the nationalists have always been peace loving law abiders.

He probably is right that demographic trends make unification inevitable when combined with the pre-commitments made in the Good Friday Agreement. And there's so many useful details in this book, particularly in the later chapters. O'Leary has truly thought through unification, but he is incredibly dismissive of the fears and concerns of non-nationalists.

[Kevin O · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent explanation and exploration of how the nuts and bolts of a potentially united ireland could come form after what seems like the inevitable border poll takes place.
Emotions is removed from this practical lesson in how the unification could be formed by either of two main forms ! Case 1 involves Northern Ireland remaining as a functioning sub-state with Case 2 as complete unification of the North.
Very interesting & timely ..
Recommend ALL of our islands citizens to read it and genuinely try take in what Brendan is saying ..

[Patrick Kennedy · Rating 3 out of 5]

Being sensible (or 'making sense') isn't thrilling stuff. But it's still a solid intro to some of the practical concerns, if / when this becomes a real possibility (probably when, maybe in the 2030s). Less so the emotional concerns. Best of luck to everyone involved in figuring it all out. It's.. a lot

[Matthew · Rating 4 out of 5]

A timely book that addresses a number of key themes of Irish unity. A successionist conception rather than a transformative idea of reunification, however, essential to contextualise the future debates

[Sølvi Goard · Rating 3 out of 5]

Aggressively centrist and therefore kind of lacking a clear political reason for unification, but useful.

[Daniel Mossop]

Probably too in depth for me.

[John Ó Doibhlin · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very rigorous examination with many compelling and well reasoned arguments.

[Donal · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading on the topic close to all our hearts

[Andrew · Rating 5 out of 5]

Best book I've read this year. I am so much better informed on what needs to be done IF a reunited Ireland is to happen.

[Richie · Rating 3 out of 5]

As dry as burnt toast.

[Tom M (London) · Rating 4 out of 5]

Almost brushing aside the concerns of those in the North who don't want a united Ireland, the distinguished Prof. Brendan O'Leary, esteemed for his profound expertise in political science and governance, addresses the complex issue of Irish reunification with a scholarly rigour reminiscent of his extensive advisory roles to governments worldwide. With an assertive yet nuanced approach, O'Leary delves into the historical precedents of other once-divided nations, notably Germany's successful reunification and Cyprus's failed attempts, offering a meticulous analysis of the factors that shaped their outcomes.

Drawing on his formidable experience, O'Leary dissects the challenges inherent in uniting societies with deep-seated divisions, providing insights into potential pathways forward. His examination leaves no facet untouched, emphasising the pragmatic and often mundane tasks essential to navigating such contentious transitions. While he espouses the potential benefits of a reunited Ireland, meticulously detailing its advantages, O'Leary acknowledges the formidable obstacles posed by the entrenched perspectives of Unionists.

In his weighty discourse, O'Leary challenges conventional assumptions and calls for a comprehensive reassessment of strategies by decision-makers and influencers across Ireland, North and South. His treatise, though demanding in its depth and detail, is positioned as essential reading for Irish politicians and beyond, urging a careful consideration of its insights amid the complexities of political negotiation and societal reconciliation.

[Erik Brodin · Rating 3 out of 5]

“Making Sense of a United Ireland” is a non-fiction book with a dizzyingly high flow of information, so one needs to stay focused when O’Leary goes through and evaluates different implications of a possible reunification of Ireland. The book provides an overview of the political and democratic institutions in the southern and northern parts of the island and evaluates which arrangements and approaches would be possible or even desirable to bring into a possible common future. The reading/listening of "Making Sense of a United Ireland" is both demanding and, to be honest, dry in its approach, however O’Leary delivers many interesting and eye-opening facts, clarifications, and conclusions, which eases the reading. And not to be forgotten, some truly fascinating facts and insights emerge along the reading. The part I Personally appreciated the most was the overview and comparisons with previous reunification efforts elsewhere in the world, both successful and unsuccessful, but I occasionally lost interest in parts with too much recitation of election laws, constitutional technicalities, etc.
Rating 3,5↓

Review originally written in Swedish