Terrorism is a persistent form of political violence, but it appears intermittently, afflicting certain places in certain eras while others remain unscathed. Since the late nineteenth century, it has risen and fallen in recurrent generation-long spasms in which hundreds of short-lived groups wreak havoc. Why have past outbreaks of terror tended to come in waves, and how does this pattern shed light on future threats?
David C. Rapoport, a preeminent scholar of political violence, identifies and analyzes four distinct waves of global terrorism. He examines the dynamics of each wave, contrasting their tactics, targets, and goals and placing them in the context of the much longer history of terrorism. Global terror emerged in the 1880s after technological changes transformed communication and transportation and dynamite enabled individuals or small groups to carry out bombings. Emanating from Russia, a first wave of anarchists assassinated prominent figures in what they called “propaganda of the deed.” This was followed by a second wave of anticolonial terrorism that arose in the British Empire in the 1920s. Beginning in the 1960s, a third wave of New Left movements took hostages and hijacked airplanes. Most recently, religious movements—mostly but not entirely in the Islamic world—have constituted a fourth wave, pioneering self-martyrdom or suicide bombing. Rapoport also considers whether a fifth wave of anti-immigrant or white supremacist terror is emerging today. Recasting the complex history of modern political violence, Waves of Global Terrorism makes a major contribution to our understanding of the roots of contemporary terrorism.
David Rapoport (who sadly passed away just last year) is pioneer and titan in the field of terrorism/extremism studies. In particular his 'wave theory' (articulated in many of his previous talks/articles, but finally presented here in book format), remains one of the most compelling ways of understanding the history and development of contemporary terrorism.
The main argument is that terrorism in the modern age (which for the sake of this book, starts in the late 1800s), emerges in various 'waves', each lasting a generation (roughly 40 years) and following a roughly deterministic pattern of rise, peak, and eventual decline. The 'character' of these waves (in addition to the preferred tactics of the various groups belonging to them) are based largely on the global economic, political, cultural, and technological issues/developments of their time.
For instance, after the invention and proliferation of dynamite in the late 1800s, explosions became the dominant terrorist tactic of the first wave. As commercial airline travel became more affordable/accessible in the 1960s, airplane hijackings became the new dominant terrorist tactic, and so forth.
The four waves outlined here (the Anarchist Wave, the Postcolonial Wave, the New Left Wave, and the Religious Wave) are well-defined and justified via plenty of examples, even if there isn't nearly enough space in this book to explore most of the background of such things beyond a somewhat cursory level. Sometimes this results in very hasty/simplistic overviews (and in some cases, minor errors - Air India Flight 182, for instance, went down just off the coast of Ireland, not over Canada as suggested in the text).
Given that the Religious Wave (which is marked here as beginning in 1979) has essentially reached the 40ish year lifespan of a typical wave, the book concludes with a discussion of a potential fifth wave (an oft-discussed topic in the terrorism field today) and what that wave might look like. Rapoport concludes the fifth wave will likely be marked by the far-right response to global immigration (particularly in North America and Western Europe) and recession, and it's hard to disagree with this characterization, at least based on what the statistics have shown over the last ten years or so (though I do think the immigration question is slightly over-emphasized here, many modern accelerationist/far-right groups also being driven by issues of climate change and environmentalism, for example).