What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War?

by William Spaniel

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most important development in European politics since the end of the Cold War. Why did Vladimir Putin to go down that route? And how will the war end?

Using the latest advances in international relations research, William Spaniel dives deep into the underlying causes of the war. Most media attention focuses on the substantive causes of the control of Ukrainian separatist regions, Russian territorial ambitions, and natural resource extraction. Missing from this discussion is why Ukraine and Russia could not reach a bargained resolution to those issues and avoid the death and destruction of the invasion.

This book explores the most plausible problems with negotiating a settlement and how the war can solve them. In the process, it answers a number of deeper questions about the conflict. Is Vladimir Putin actually popular in Russia? Why has the United States pushed for "conditional" sanctions against Russia that will disappear after the war rather than maximize the punishment Putin suffers? How would a terminally-ill Putin affect the war? And should Ukraine worry that Putin will try this again in the future?

Genres: History, Politics

167 pages, Kindle Edition

Published June 27, 2022

Reviews

[Roger Miller · Rating 3 out of 5]

I enjoyed this, but take issue with two topics. First, the author does not cover the entire history of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. This book begins with Russia's 2014 invasion, but ignores nearly a century of prior conflicts, including the Holodomor, when Russia starved millions of Ukrainians to death as a deliberate policy of weakening Ukrainia national aspirations. Second, the author uses a geography-based tool for assessing the relative weaknesses and strengths of each side; it's not useful as an analytic tool and it clumsily obscures other, less abstract realities on the ground.

[Michael · Rating 4 out of 5]

Analytical and digestible look at game theory

Although the book is a little outdated as far as the facts and analyses of the war itself, it is a great book for analyzing why and how countries make the decision to negotiate or go to war. It is easy to digest for the layman. I very much enjoyed it.

[zikkery · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is a little heavy on the jargon but a great primer for how to think about conflict theories. It ignores a lot of the emotional aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian War. If anything, this is reading for the academic or the armchair generals, or even the real generals for that matter.

[Paul Hedeen · Rating 1 out of 5]

Dr. Spaniel is an academician and a scholar. His careful detail and intelligence are present on every page. His analyses are dispassionate and well-reasoned, that is "academic" in the good sense of that term. Unfortunately for me--as I am married to a Ukrainian and have taught, lived, and traveled in Ukraine, have made friends and family there--I found the book, as smart as it is, completely bloodless, passionless, and bereft of feeling for both the Ukrainians, who are literally fighting for their lives, identities, and nation, and the Russians, who are dying in their thousands. None of the history of these two countries seems to play a role in Spaniel's thinking and reasoning, while history is hugely important to both sides (the Russian version being mostly propaganda). No emotions seem to play a role. No anger, hate, terror, or grief. Just game theory. So the book is "academic" in the bad sense of that word, too, as if on verge of being beside the point.

[Julio The Fox · Rating 5 out of 5]

Vladimir Putin: Who had the ten Russian capos in Ukraine killed?
Yevgeny, head of the WAGNER GROUP: The Zelensky Family.
Vlad: I know, but who gave the go-ahead? I know I didn't.
Yevgeny: There was this kid I grew up with, who sort of looked up to me. We did our first work together. Made a fortune, you too Vlad. Later on, he had an idea for a multipolar world and uniting all the Slavic nations together. This was a man of guts and vision. That kid's name was Alexander Dugin, and the ideology he invented was Eurasianism. Someone tried to kill him with a car bomb. When I heard about it I wasn't angry. I knew Alex. I knew he was headstrong, talking out loud, and saying stupid things. So, when I saw the wreckage I said to myself "This is the Special Military Operation we have chosen!" I didn't ask "Who gave the order?" because it has nothing to do with war. That 30% of Ukraine you have in your pocket. I'm going to take a nap. If it is in the hands of my boys by tomorrow I'll know I have a partner. If it isn't I'll know I don't.

[Aaron · Rating 5 out of 5]

I discovered the author’s work on YouTube and was immediately attracted to his ideas of incorporating game theory and probability theory into the study of war. At times, this book is tricky to understand, as it requires one to consider whether potential land settlements would be rejected or accepted based on a country’s costs (or perceived costs). I think collecting the maps a little bit differently to illustrate where each side would prefer war or peace could be helpful. I really liked that the author began with very simple assumptions and gradually added more realistic assumptions and their consequences. I don’t think I’ll think of war the same way after reading this book, as it challenged me to think of war/peace outcomes on a continuum of possibilities (and the associates expected value of war or peace). Despite this book being released shortly into the Ukraine war, it is still extremely relevant and applicable to the war over a year later. Recommended.

[Menno · Rating 4 out of 5]

Relatively short book that gives interesting insights based on game theory.
However, it mostly answers the question of why states do not always reach a compromise that avoids war, but can still transfer territory and resources.
Therefore, the analysis obscures as much as it informs. A hypothetical settlement in 2021 where Ukraine is forced at gunpoint to peacefully transfer provinces to Russia would still be a historic and extreme event, but would be described as an efficient solution in this framework.
This analysis is certainly valuable. But it does not give answers to why Russia has certain preferences that would make a land grab inevitable in 21st century Europe. This book assumes these preferences, and unfortunately provides few answers.

[Mark Griffin · Rating 5 out of 5]

A useful lens through which to look at conflict

The author, who also hosts a YouTube channel where he analyzes current events in the conflict, provides a useful paradigm with which to consider potential motivations and options available to Ukraine and Russia (or similarly situated states in conflict). The points raised by the author are useful cor anyone following developments in this war, especially in light of the information war being conducted by both sides. It also provides a framework with which to consider other conflicts between states.

[Robin · Rating 5 out of 5]

Very interesting read, that expands on the various possible causes of the war, but focuses on the game theoretical calculations dis- and favoring each of the causes. As a novice to game theory, I did take me some time to get into the way of arguing. Still, an enjoyable read, with plenty of suggestions for further reading. I am looking forward to reading other books by the author.

[Ejpoleii · Rating 3 out of 5]

Complex & Borders

A bit complex and missed the probable geopolitical cause, defensible borders. Interesting analysis of why war happens. Worth the read.

[Mr Neil Fleming · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great read

As of late Nov 2023 this is a great assessment of the causes and ending of the Ukraine war. It is a little academic but a good read