A smart analytical book that knows where the facts are and how far to reach into the realm of supposition.
My first thought is that it’s the mistake of the victors playing out again.
After WWI, the allies piled on a defeated Germany and thus engendered the very forces that led to the Second World War.
It seems that the US winning the Cold War is determined to make the same mistakes over a beaten Soviet Union.
To be clear: my position is nothing happening in Ukraine is worth an increase in the chance of nuclear war.
Putin was a young hooligan, uninterested in school, devoted more to a kind of judo than anything else. Through timely academic applications and real success in that sport, Putin found himself in law school and then the KGB.
A competent administrator, Putin became the right hand of a Leningrad politician, Sobchak, as Gorbachev began liberalization.
Like Stalin before him, who actually ran things, while the Lenin and the Trotskys speechified, Putin demonstrated a managerial flair for running Leningrad.
Later, Putin would help his boss flee charges. That loyalty was noticed by Moscow and Yeltsin.
Putin became the indispensable man in Moscow and then it’s president successor to Yeltsin.
That said, here’s some book quotes and what I think people should garner from them
“In this one Russian city, more people died than all the Americans who have died in every foreign war the United States has ever fought.”
—750,000 Russians died in Leningrad. The great patriotic war is still central to Russian self identity.
“Russia lost 27 million people, 15 per cent of the population, during the war, a gargantuan blood-letting from which the country has still not recovered. For Russians, it was the defining event of the twentieth century, overshadowing the Bolshevik Revolution, the Civil War, the horrors of Stalin’s purges and the collapse of communism.”
“In the Soviet Union, that was what most people did. There was no point saving money because there was so little to spend it on”
“No honest man survived Stalin” and more down to earth, during Brezhnev’s era, “they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.”
“Private ownership, Putin concluded, was key. If people were to be motivated, they had to be allowed to accumulate property and to pass it on to their children. If the economy was to develop, there had to be competition.”
—even Putin understands socialism can’t work.
“known as blat, had always been part of the Soviet system. But there was a difference between voluntarily giving preference to a friend; feeling obliged to give preference”
Drunkenness was such a problem that in some parts of the Soviet Union, one child in six was born mentally retarded from an alcoholic mother.”
—several aspects of how broken Russia was when Putin took over.
‘free-market system, an endeavour which the American Ambassador, Jack Matlock, described as ‘like trying to convert a submarine into an airplane while keeping it functioning with the same crew throughout’.
—more evidence of the impossible struggle Putin was dealt, and more evidence of how tyranny was inevitable.
“At one high school, one in six of the girls in the senior classes said they wished to work as prostitutes after graduation. Half of the rest thought that was a legitimate choice but were deterred by the risk of AIDS or parental opposition.”
—more broken Russia
“Clinton put pressure on the IMF to disburse aid which had been delayed. The French President, Jacques Chirac, provided a secret loan of 1.5 billion US dollars, and Germany 3.5 billion, to be used to pay pension arrears and finance other social needs. The businessmen, meeting in February at the World Economic Forum in Davos, agreed to provide Yeltsin with all the media and financial resources they could muster.”
—the US gave Yeltsin billions so he could win his election.
The US tampered in Russia’s election far more than some facebooks memes
“To ensure that there would be no return to communist rule, the United States and other Western governments aided Yeltsin’s reelection campaign. Nonetheless, a precedent had been created which, 20 years later, would come back to haunt Americans–or should have done, had anyone remembered it.”
—The US is a giant hypocrite in this
“Crimea territory, a peninsula almost the size of Belgium, jutting out into the Black Sea, had been part of Russia since 1783. It was transferred to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954”
—Crimea is part of Russia
Baker had told Gorbachev in February 1990, in the context of German reunification, that ‘not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction’. 70 When Gorbachev doubled down and insisted that there should not be ‘any extension of the zone of NATO’…
…Although nothing was put in writing, from then on the State Department worked on the basis that there would be no eastward expansion of NATO and so did America’s allies. 72 Helmut Kohl, François Mitterrand and Margaret..
…Thatcher’s successor, John Major, about possible NATO enlargement, the British Prime Minister assured him that ‘nothing of the sort will happen’”
— so what is Russia to think when NATO continues to expand? The USSR has been dead for 30 years.
“short-term gains from admitting the Eastern and Central Europeans to NATO would be outweighed by the long-term damage it would do to the relationship with Russia. The same message was conveyed to the White House by the CIA”
— warnings a decade ago
“There was no way that American security would be enhanced by taking on a commitment to defend the European states abutting Russia’s borders. Francis Richards, who was at that time Under Secretary at the British Foreign Office, remembered: ‘No one was going to pause and consider the wisdom of giving them an unconditional military guarantee, which seemed to me lunacy.’ It was a blank cheque that could never be honoured, and ‘dishing out cheques that can’t be honoured is … destroying the credibility of NATO as a defensive organisation.”
It would be wrong to focus on NATO enlargement and the Kosovo affair as the origin of all America’s subsequent problems with Russia. But the combination was devastating. As Moscow saw it, less than three weeks after NATO had admitted its first Eastern European members, it had begun bombarding Serbia, a traditional Russian ally. It was the first sustained combat operation the alliance had conducted since its founding, 50 years before, and it had been undertaken without UN authorisation and in disregard of Yeltsin’s entreaties to find a diplomatic solution. Without the bombing raids, Milošević would no doubt have bludgeoned the Kosovars into submission. But under international law, Kosovo was part of Serbia. To Russia, NATO’s intervention was a crude attempt to modify a post-war European border by armed force.”
— a valid point
“ 335 hostages died, including 186 children, killed either by the hostage-takers or when the building was stormed.”
- a terrorist attack in Chechnya, and I bet you never heard of it. I hadn’t. More evidence that we have no business interfering in places where we know less than nothing.
Ingushetia
— that’s a province in Russia, yeah, thought it was a made up word too
“Ambassador Burns had written to Condoleezza Rice earlier that month:Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In my more than two-and-a-half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russia’s interests. At this stage a MAP offer would be seen not as a technical step … but as throwing down the strategic gauntlet. Today’s Russia will respond.”
In speech after speech, Putin listed the obstacles to economic growth: high taxes, capital flight, the ‘offshorisation’ of profits, the arbitrariness of the bureaucracy, corruption in the state monopolies, rampant crime, uncompetitive industry, inadequate guarantees for property rights, restrictions on the buying and selling of land, a still primitive banking system, the burden of foreign debt, the failings of the judicial system and demographic decline.”
— more impossible challenges for a president to overcome without abdication of civil rights
“The notion that land could be bought and sold, like any other commodity, was so alien that when it was debated in the Duma, in 2001, the Communists swarmed the tribune and a fist fight broke out.“
— more evidence of how backward Russia was even 20 years ago
“When Putin took office, the Russian bureaucracy, consisting of public servants, members of the security forces and employees of state-owned enterprises, numbered 25 million people, more than a third of the total workforce. In March 2004, he launched an ambitious programme…
Far from declining, public-sector employment during Putin’s first two terms increased by three million to reach 40 per cent of the workforce, almost twice the level in developed market economies.”
—America’s deep state would be envious
“For the Americans, there were no good options. Military intervention was ruled out. ‘Are we prepared to go to war with Russia over Georgia?’, Bush’s National Security Adviser, Steve Hadley, asked. Short of that, Washington’s leverage was negligible.”
Is won’t fight in Georgia or Crimea but will on Ukraine proper? Why?
When folks think Putin if pushed wouldn’t put nuclear weapons in play bc that would be illogical..
“After 12 years in power, Putin had come to see himself as the incarnation of the state. He felt ‘one with the Russian soil,’ he said. ‘Russia is my life … Not for a second can I imagine myself without her … It’s not just love that I feel … I feel part of our people.’ It was not a president
but a priest-king speaking…
…It brought to mind Angela Merkel’s comment, years earlier, that he was living on a different planet…
…The staging of the Security Council meeting at which he had publicly cross-examined his subordinates had overtones of megalomania…
…Nixon’s ‘madman’ theory, intended to make him appear so irrational and unpredictable that adversaries would hesitate before testing his resolve.
And then there’s Ukraine and it’s sordid history..
“Putin’s grievances against Ukraine went back to the 1990s. The country’s role in the break-up of the Soviet Union; the status of Crimea; squabbles over the lease of port facilities at Sevastopol for Russia’s Black Sea fleet, arguments over the demarcation of the two countries’ borders; disputes over culture, language, history and even between rival branches of the Orthodox Church–all ensured that Ukraine would be Russia’s prickliest partner,
Putin starting to regard the EU as a stalking horse for NATO. He told Angela Merkel: ‘When I look at the membership of the EU and I look at the membership of NATO, I see basically the same thing. So when I hear about an Association Agreement for Ukraine, I know that NATO will follow….But, above all, Merkel was concerned that no one seemed to have thought through the implications of Ukrainian partnership. In public, Putin insisted that Russia would respect whatever decision Ukraine made. In private he offered Yanukovych a choice. If he signed with the EU, Russia would retaliate; if he did not, Moscow would provide substantial aid, including preferential prices for gas and a 15 billion US dollar credit. All through the summer of 2013, the Ukrainian leader dithered. Even with hindsight, it is hard to understand why no one in the European Commission realised that they were playing with fire. Ronald McIntosh, who had held a succession of posts at the top of the British civil service, wrote in disbelief: Did the European policy-makers in Brussels (the capital of a country whose ethnic, linguistic and religious differences are uncannily similar to those
of Ukraine) not know that any Russian government [would] resist with the utmost vigour any attempt to bring the strategically located state of Ukraine, through which all Russia’s invaders in the last century have passed, into the orbit of the European Union and therefore, by extension, of NATO? For anyone with a knowledge of history, this was not difficult to foresee…Putin had made clear at Bucharest that any move towards Ukrainian membership of NATO would have grave consequences….The only certainty was that neither the United States nor any other Western government was contemplating a military response. Putin’s instincts had been correct. There would be symbolic protests against the takeover of Crimea and, no doubt, economic sanctions. But no one would actually try to stop it…independence from Serbia, of which it had been part, did not violate international law. If the Kosovars had the right to secede, it was hard to argue that the people of Crimea did not.
Ukraine is no Virgin…
“Likewise the EU. The level of corruption was, as one expert put it, ‘insane’. There was no functioning government and the country was culturally and linguistically divided. Ukraine, like Iraq, began to look like a poisoned chalice which the West would have done better to leave alone”
More evidence Putin might not be that powerful and thus not really in control of how Russia would respond to defeat in Ukraine..
Putin did express reservations over the increasing use of sharia law in Chechnya, under which polygamy and honour killings–illegal in Russia–were encouraged, women were expected to wear headscarves and men to grow beards…The Kremlin had nothing to gain from his death and relations with the West, already dire, would get even worse if Russia were shown to be involved. Afterwards, however, he covered up for those responsible. The men the British accused of being GRU operatives…in this country’, wrote Moskovsky komsomolets. ‘Now the “fools” are showing that they, not the President, are in charge.’ That was certainly what it looked like. Putin’s criticisms had been very publicly ignored. Like his failure to punish Kadyrov, it raised questions about who held the real power in Russia…
mode in which he had been running Russia since the middle of his third term, the final decision had been taken by siloviki in his inner circle who assumed that he would be only too glad to see his long-time adversary removed.
Biden making up stories, and if true, shouldn’t Biden be worried that a soulless Putin might decide a few tactical nukes would give him a victory in Ukraine?
“Biden went on to recall that, when he had met Putin as Vice President, ten years earlier, he had referred to George W. Bush’s much maligned into Putin’s eyes and ‘got a sense of his soul’. Biden said he had told him: ‘When I look into your eyes, I don’t think you have a soul.’ Putin, he said, had responded: ‘We understand each other.’
Biden was for the nordstream pipeline..before he blew it up
“Biden announced that the United States would waive threatened countermeasures against companies
involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, a project which had been fiercely opposed by both the Obama and Trump administrations. It was made clear that the United States had not abandoned its reservations but that it would no longer try to enforce them.”
US weakness..
Then, in the second half of August, came the debacle of America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. To the Kremlin, it signalled chronic weakness. In Kabul, as in Saigon 50 years earlier, faced with fierce resistance, the Americans had cut and run, leaving their one-time allies to their fate. Georgia had had a similar experience when it
Ukraine and Russia are ridiculously intertwined…
Zelensky was a Russian-speaking…The close ties between the two peoples–more than 40 per cent of Ukrainians have relatives in Russia…The conflict was fratricidal–not quite a civil war
And a great quote on how this author never strays too far into the intellectual navel gazing and news to real politique
“Counterfactuals, as they are now called, a term conferring a veneer of academic respectability on idle speculation, are inherently beguiling”