Hothouse Earth

by Bill McGuire, Mike Cooper (Reader)

We inhabit a planet in peril. Our once temperate world is locked on course to become a hothouse entirely of our own making.

Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide provides a post-COP26 perspective on the climate emergency, acknowledging that it is now practically impossible to keep this side of the 1.5°C dangerous climate change guardrail. The upshot is that we can no longer dodge the arrival of disastrous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown that will come as a hammer blow to global society and economy.

Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards, explains the science behind the climate crisis and for the first time presents a blunt but authentic picture of the sort of world our children will grow old in, and our grandchildren grow up in; a world that we catch only glimpses of in today's blistering heatwaves, calamitous wildfires and ruinous floods and droughts. Bleak though it is, the picture is one we must all face up to, if only to spur genuine action - even at this late stage - to stop a harrowing future becoming a truly cataclysmic one.

Genres: Nonfiction, Climate Change, Environment, Science, Politics, History, Audiobook

Audio CD

Published September 1, 2022

About the author

William J. "Bill" McGuire (born 1954) is Emeritus Professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at University College London and is one of Britain's leading volcanologists. His main interests include volcano instability and lateral collapse, the nature and impact of global geophysical events and the effect of climate change on geological hazards.

Reviews

[Brian Clegg · Rating 4 out of 5]

There have been many books on global warming, but I can't think of any I've read that are so definitively clear about the impact that climate change is going to have on our lives. The only reason I've not given it five stars is because it's so relentless miserable - I absolute accept the reality of Bill McGuire's message, but you have to have a particularly perverted kind of 'I told you so' attitude to actually enjoy reading this.

McGuire lays out how climate change is likely to continue and the impacts it will have on our lives in a stark way. Unlike many environmental writers, he is honest about the uncertainty, telling us 'Despite meticulous and comprehensive modelling, we just don't know how bad things will get, nor can we know.' But any climate change deniers seeing this as an escape clause entirely miss the point. The uncertainty is over how bad things will be, but not over whether or not things will be bad. As we are told, 'tipping points and positive feedback effects are the real flies in the ointment when trying to pin down how bad things will get'.

Possibly the hardest thing to get across to people is why the 'Hothouse' of the title is real. When we're talking about warming of a couple of degrees Celsius, to many this doesn't sound much. We can but hope that the sweltering temperatures of July 2022 make it a bit clearer what an impact a small-sounding increase in average temperatures can have on the day-to-day weather.

What doesn't help is telling us things are going to be disastrous without any guidance on doing something about it - otherwise a book like this would be little more than the literary equivalent of one of those people proclaiming 'end of the world is nigh' on a street corner. McGuire does relatively briefly explore how we can stop a bad situation getting worse. He makes it clear that the efforts of activists might have raised awareness, but they do nothing to actually mitigate the impact of climate change. Accelerating the move away from fossil fuel is one big message, as is to stop destroying forests.

Sometimes McGuire's solutions seem more disputable. We are told that beef and dairy result in greenhouse gas emissions - so cut back consumption. That's fine, but there are also excellent ways to reduce the emissions from the animals without killing them all off, which surely would be better. Similarly, the response can be a little parochial. If the UK, for example, were we to go carbon neutral tomorrow, it would only make a tiny contribution to reducing the speed of advance of climate change. Yes, as McGuire says, 'we all need to do our bit' - but it is only if the really big emitters make quick changes that things will start to turn round. And like almost all academics (who fly a lot and enjoy their conferences a bit too much), he doesn't mention the huge impact of flying as a percentage of the global warming contribution of any individual who flies a lot.

McGuire ends up by pointing out to those who think he is being alarmist that in a situation like the one we are in, alarm is the only sensible response. He's right. This is a book to read and think twice about our future. Before it's too late.

[Carlos Martinez · Rating 5 out of 5]

4.5, rounded up because you should definitely read it.

A short but surprisingly thorough assessment of where we're at (as of 2022) with preventing climate catastrophe. It really doesn't look good. McGuire paints a fairly stark picture of what the planet will be like in 20, 50 and 100 years if we don't take urgent action to massively reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases.

While the author makes a decent effort to not be as eurocentric as these books often are, he doesn't sufficiently highlight the extent to which the "first world" is responsible for the situation, and therefore questions of climate justice aren't properly covered. I'm looking forward to reading A People’s Green New Deal on that. Also, the role of imperialist war is altogether missing. When NATO destroys whole countries, it is engaged in (among other things) an act of environmental vandalism, destroying resources, emitting enormous quantities of carbon dioxide, spreading pollutants, and creating a level of economic and political instability that makes it basically impossible to address ecological issues. I would have thought an obvious demand would be for the US's 800 billion dollar annual military budget to be repurposed towards renewable energy.

Anyway, do read the book.

[สฤณี อาชวานันทกุล · Rating 5 out of 5]

หนังสือเกี่ยวกับวิกฤติสภาพอากาศที่ดีที่สุดเล่มหนึ่งเท่าที่เคยอ่าน เขียนโดยนักธรณีวิทยาผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านภูเขาไฟ อธิบายผลกระทบของ climate change ต่อธรรมชาติและสิ่งปลูกสร้างของมนุษย์ ทั้งเชิงภูมิศาสตร์โดยรวม ดินน้ำลมไฟ เกษตรกรรม และภัยพิบัติต่างๆ อย่างแจ่มชัดและเข้าใจง่าย เป้าหมายของผู้เขียนสำหรับหนังสือเล่มนี้คือเพื่อสรุปให้เราตื่นตัวแต่ไม่ตื่นกลัวว่า “ภาวะโลกร้อน” คุกคามทั้งชีวิตเราและสิ่งมีชีวิตร่วมโลกขนาดไหน จะได้ลงมือปฏิรูปเปลี่ยนแปลงระบอบเศรษฐกิจและสังคมเพื่อรับมือกับมัน ดังที่เขาเขียนประโยคหนึ่งในหนังสือว่า “ข้อเท็จจริงที่ว่าอนาคตดูมืดมนนั้น ไม่ใช่ข้ออ้างที่จะไม่ทำอะไรเลยหรือจินตนาการว่ามันสายเสียแล้ว ในทางตรงกันข้าม มันคือเสียงปลุกให้เราลุกขึ้นสู้”

หนังสือเริ่มต้นอย่างน่าสนใจด้วยการฉายภาพชีวิตของมนุษย์ที่ผ่านมาตั้งแต่ยุคน้ำแข็ง และทำไมเราต้องจำกัดการเพิ่มขึ้นของอุณหภูมิเฉลี่ยโลกไม่ให้เกิน 1.5 องศาเซลเซียส (ตอนนี้อยู่ที่ 1.2 องศาแล้วนับจากจุดเริ่มต้นของยุคปฏิวัติอุตสาหกรรม) ด้วยการลดการปล่อยก๊าซเรือนกระจกลงให้ได้ถึง 45% ภายในปี 2030 เขาสรุปอย่างแจ่มชัดว่า IPCC ลั่นระฆังเตือนมนุษยชาติมาแล้วกี่ครั้งแต่การเปลี่ยนแปลงในระดับที่จำเป็นต้องเกิดยังไม่เกิดเลย

เนื้อหาที่ชอบมากในหนังสือคือตอนที่ผู้เขียนสรุปงานวิจัยล่าสุดที่หักล้างความเชื่อเดิมๆ หรือข้อมูลเก่าเกี่ยวกับผลกระทบของ climate change ยกตัวอย่างเช่น ก่อนหน้านี้เคยคิดกันว่าถ้าโลกร้อนขึ้นมาก ดินจะดูดซับคาร์บอนได้มากขึ้น แต่งานวิจัยล่าสุดที่ทดลองให้พืชอาบคาร์บอนไดอ็อกไซด์มากขึ้น 50 เปอร์เซ็นต์พบว่า ป่าไม้เติบโตได้ดีกว่าเดิมแต่คาร์บอนในดินกลับไม่เพิ่มขึ้น เพราะการเติบโตของต้นไม้ที่สูงขึ้นส่งผลให้ดูดสารอาหารออกจากดินมากกว่าเดิมโดยการทำงานของจุลชีพใต้ดิน ผลลัพธ์คือคาร์บอนไดอ็อกไซด์ถูกปล่อยสู่ชั้นบรรยากาศมากขึ้น ไม่ใช่ดูดซับในดินอย่างที่เคยเข้าใจกัน นอกจากนี้ การล่มสลายของดินฟ้าอากาศจะก่อหายนะต่อเกษตรกรรมโลกอย่างไร้ข้อกังขาโดยไม่ต้องมานั่งไล่ว่าพืชชนิดไหนอาจได้ประโยชน์ เพราะพื้นที่เพาะปลูกจะลดลงมากจากอุณหภูมิสุดขั้ว ภัยแล้ง น้ำทะเลหนุนสูงและการกลายเป็นทะเลทราย

ผู้เขียนอธิบายด้วยว่า ตั้งแต่ราวปี 2060 เป็นต้นไป แม่น้ำหลายสายจะเริ่มแห้งเหือดเมื่อธารน้ำแข็งละลายหายไป ซึ่งไม่เพียงแต่จะส่งผลมหาศาลต่อภาคการเกษตรเท่านั้น แต่เขื่อนผลิตไฟฟ้าที่สร้างกั้นแม่น้ำก็จะใช้การไม่ได้อีกต่อไปด้วย ทำให้หลายประเทศสุ่มเสี่ยงที่จะขาดทั้งอาหารและพลังงานในเวลาเดียวกัน (บริษัทไหนอยากสร้างเขื่อนแล้วจะเอาสัมปทานยาวนานถึง 35 ปี ช่วยตื่นมารับรู้หน่อยว่าสัมปทานอาจอยู่นานกว่าเขื่อนแกอีก!!)

หนังสือร่วมสมัยที่มนุษย์ทุกคนควรอ่าน เวลาผ่านไปตัวเลขต่างๆ ในหนังสือเล่มนี้อาจล้าสมัย แต่คำอธิบายที่แจ่มชัดเรื่องเส้นทางการเกิดผลกระทบต่างๆ ของ climate change และวิสัยทัศน์ที่ปลุกให้เราตื่นตัวของผู้เขียนจะยังอยู่ไปอีกนาน

[Kate Vane · Rating 5 out of 5]

Hothouse Earth, written by geologist and activist Bill McGuire, is a great summary for the general reader of the key issues around global heating. It’s just under 200 pages and is broken down into short sections.

The areas it covers include the scientific evidence for the effects of global heating on climate, food security, humanity and biodiversity. He also discusses the likely social consequences – including heat-related deaths, mass migration and civil unrest. There’s also an interesting critique of some of the technological fixes offered by the private jet class as an excuse not to do anything.

Some of this was new to me, some of it was information that I sort-of thought I knew from reading about it or hearing it on a podcast. The beauty of Hothouse Earth is that it brings everything into one book you can refer back to.

Hothouse Earth is very accessible and the warmth and commitment of Bill McGuire shines through. It could leave you despairing – there’s a calamity coming, we know what we need to do, but too many people in power have an interest in doing nothing. But it’s also, somehow, inspiring and a call to action.
*
I received a copy of Hothouse Earth from the publisher via Netgalley.

[Maťa · Rating 5 out of 5]

4,5/5

Horúca planéta je nonfiction o dôsledkoch klimatickej krízy a budúcnosti planéty, ale v skutočnosti je to asi najväčší horor, čo som kedy čítala (a to, že horory nečítam, je irelevantné).

Z tejto knihy doslova mrazí, lebo ukazuje, čo sa na planéte deje teraz (napríklad ako rýchlo sa rozpúšťajú ľadovce), ale aj to, čo sa môže diať v najbližších rokoch a tiež to, čo sa celkom určite bude v najbližších rokoch a desaťročiach diať. Ukazuje napríklad aj to, ako klimatická kríza ovplyvní medzinárodné konflikty či aké choroby môže priniesť.

Pri čítaní tejto knihy mi nebolo všetko jedno. Čítalo sa to hrozne a desí ma, čo ma vďaka tomu počas môjho života čaká. Vedecké pedpovede sú maximálne príšerné a nakoľko mám len 26 a pravdepodobne ma čaká ešte plus mínus 50 rokov života, bojím sa o svoje pohodlie. Ale teda tiež som veľmi rada, že nechcem žiadne deti a nikto sa vďaka mne nebude musieť týmito problémami zaoberať.

Každopádne, túto knihu by si mal prečítať úplne každý, hoci pri čítaní budete pociťovať veľké zúfalstvo a hrôzu. Ale aj tak to stojí zato. Autor píše veľmi zrozumiteľne, takže je to vhodné aj pre čítateľov, ktorí nonfiction normálne nevyhľadávajú. Občas som však mala pocit, že mi podsúva svoje predstavy o svete, ktoré sa nutne nezhodujú s mojimi, čo je jediná kritika, čo na knihu mám. Inak fakt výborné.

[Amanda · Rating 4 out of 5]

An accessible, yet alarming (not alarmist) overview of the effects of climate change.

The first third of the book covers climate change since pre-history, leaving the reader wondering whether McGuire has anything new to say. Once it gets to the twenty-first century, this is a riveting read, covering meteorology, oceanography and socio-political issues, Cause and effect are well-explained.

Bill McGuire is Emeritus Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London.

Includes a list of online and offline resources.

[Philip · Rating 4 out of 5]

Let's start with the obvious, this is an activist's book and that brings with it a few caveats.

Ok, with that out of the way, I highly recommend this short book. It punches way above its weight (or, well, length). "Hothouse Earth" is a succinct gut-punch of a book. McGuire did a great job summarizing the dire situation facing humanity, the proverbial Hothouse Earth.

The book is well-written, directly confronts its critics before they've had time to say "actually," and does not mince words. In short, it's a reality check. One that way too many people will ignore. Collectively, we'll likely all pay the price.

That does not, however, warrant some of the action items the author mentions towards the end. And that's my first criticism here, but not the biggest. The biggest is the curt dismissal of any and all ideas to address the looming crisis that the author disagrees with.

All in all though, I think everyone should read this book. Period.
You won't like it - I have some really serious questions for you if you do - but you should read it.
And that's my two cents...

[Daniel · Rating 5 out of 5]

Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide (2022) by Bill McGuire summarizes the state of man-made climate change in 2022.

Pros: summarizes the physical science and impacts of climate change. Decent bibliography.

Cons: has only one chapter on mitigation (how to fix the problem), which barely scratches the surface. Ignores psychology almost completely. Occasionally implies that climate change is primarily the fault of "capitalism" and fossil fuel CEOs rather than, equally, the willful ignorance, greed, and immorality of their customers (i.e. everyone). Irresponsibly advocates eco-terrorism, but thankfully only in passing. Doesn't clearly emphasize the need for everyone to read and promote dozens more books on all aspects of climate change to address the knowledge and skill voids.

I give the book 5 stars for general scientific accuracy and importance, and to combat the downvotes of science deniers. If you give this book less than five stars, you tell the algorithm to serve the interests of Vladimir Putin and ExxonMobil. Climate change is an enormous threat, on par with other existential threats such as an asteroid impact. But unlike the asteroid threat, which has a low probability of wiping out humans in the near future, climate change is virtually guaranteed to smack us hard and fairly soon if we keep doing what we've been doing.

McGuire is a physical scientist who focuses on the "what" aspects: what is the climate doing under human influence, and what is it on pace to do in the future? He doesn't seem to know much about psychology, so he largely ignores the behavioral and psychological aspects of climate change other than to lament them. If you want to know why humans are inadvertently in a mass murder-suicide pact with fossil fuels, you won't find the answer here. Neither will you find any clue about how we can persuade people to upend their lifestyles to stop burning fossil fuels. To be fair, nobody knows how to do this. It's a psychological challenge on par with curing all other behavioral pahologies of the human condition (e.g. crime, addiction, denialism, religion i.e. belief without evidence, low IQ, racism, etc.). The psychology profession hasn't emptied the prisons yet, nor made every street safe to walk along all night. However, psychologists have at least started on the behavioral aspects of climate change, and it would be nice if physical scientists like McGuire would acknowledge that.

Otherwise, just telling people how bad things are and that most people are making things worse disturbs the reader and leaves them with no clear way to respond. Sure, we can vote for politicians who at least don't deny climate science, but what else can we do? McGuire makes a passing recommendation to blow up oil pipelines, which may be inexpedient (more on that below).

If you've read earlier books on climate change, little in this book should come as a shock, other than being more up-to-date about the steadily worsening climate situation. Most of what the book reports has been predicted and/or observed for years. The well-informed reader already knew climate change is bad - very bad - and getting worse. Experts have been calling for "action" on climate change for decades, and yet human-caused greenhouse gas emissions just keep going up and up, with the rise temporarily slowed only by the occasional recession or pandemic. Probably everyone you know continues to burn fossil fuels as if science is a hoax. Stand along a busy street and watch multitudes of ordinary people working hard to destroy civilization. There aren't too many other domains of fact in which so many people (i.e. virtually all of them) are some combination of wrong, willfully ignorant, disengaged, personally distanced, or blaming anyone but themselves. Most people are making plans for the future and popping out babies as if we - and they - have a future. Glance at social media, for example, and you'll probably see your friends boasting about about their holiday travels, or posting selfies from their cars, all while encouraging each other with "likes" to rape the planet harder. How many are aware that they are killing people? This is what fossil-fueled travel amounts to - a perfect crime. The fossil fuel customer gets to kill people and never be charged or punished.

McGuire explains where this is all leading. While there may still be time for humankind to salvage some sort of a future, thus far there is no hint of sufficient effort. It's as if we're tossing a few cups of water on a burning city, and telling ourselves we did enough. Man's reponse to climate change has been at best performative. To avoid cooking civilization off the planet, humans have to do something they've never done: voluntarily stop using an energy source before they exhaust it. So far there is nothing to suggest humans are going to do that. The book will probably be difficult for many people to read, particularly those who have been living under a rock and missed the last 20-plus years of climate science. But that's the problem - people have a psychological tendency to react to bad news by ignoring it, or worse by denying it. Or transferring it - pretending that climate change is a problem caused by someone else (e.g. the fossil fuel companies), impacting someone else (e.g. strangers who live far away in space and/or time), and being someone else's resonsibility to fix (e.g. the government).

Climate change is a vast topic, and no single book can cover the whole thing. The IPCC divides the topic among three working groups for its assessment reports:
* The Physical Science Basis (WGI)
* Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII)
* Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII)

Most books on climate change touch on all three areas. McGuire spends most of Hothouse Earth on the first two, the science of climate itself, and the impacts of climate change. He (barely) covers mitigation in the last chapter, stating in very broad terms what needs to happen.

McGuire says almost nothing about the psychological aspects of climate change, other than to mention emotional responses after the damage has been done - such as thousands of farmers in India committing suicide, with climate stress seemingly a contributing factor. He doesn't say anything about the psychology of pro-social and pro-environmental behavior, belief change, denialism, individual differences, and behavioral genetics. For example, why do different people respond so differently to the same facts? At the pro-environment extreme, a handful of people hear about climate change, seek out the facts, distinguish reliable sources from the flood of fossil-fuel-industry-funded disinformation, and respond by slashing their individual contributions to climate change. At the opposite extreme, other people respond by becoming consciously anti-environmental (see: "rolling coal"). But in the great middle, most people just keep driving, flying, heating, and cooling, mainly by burning fossil fuels, along with eating meat, owning meat-eating pets, and procreating (these are for many people their largest contributions to climate destruction). Why do individuals differ so markedly in their level of concern for the health of Earth's biosphere? The job of psychology is to study those questions.

The problem for physical scientists like McGuire is that they are critical thinkers who mostly function in the world of facts. When the facts have convinced them, they tend to assume the facts will convince everyone else. Sadly, this is very far from being true. Scientists have been trumpeting the facts for over 20 years since climate change really started to get on the radar, and humankind for the most part has ignored them. If people cared about facts, we'd see airlines filing for bankruptcy because people would abandon flying. Instead, only a handful of people care enough about truth to do that.

One great cause of these individual differences is DNA. See the books:
* Blueprint: How DNA makes us who we are
* Predisposed: Liberals, Conservatives, and the Biology of Political Differences
Obtaining compliance with pro-environmental policies is as elusive as it is critically important. Given that for almost any complex behavior that varies between people, there will be a corresponding polygenetic score, behavioral geneticists should perform GWAS to identify the SNPs that associaste with pro-environmental behavior. The claim which demands testing is this: most of Homo sapiens is genetically maladapted for living with advanced technology on Earth. But rare genetic variants already present and manifesting in rare individuals may define a template for Homo ecologicus, the Environmentally Responsible Man. It may be that the only hope for human survival is to insure, via genetic engineering, that no more humans will be created in the traditional random way, but only those who are genetically equipped to survive on Earth without destroying its habitability.

There are many books on the psychology of climate change. A sample:

* Why Aren't We Saving the Planet?
* The Psychology of Climate Change
* The Psychology of Sustainable Behavior

Other quibbles:

McGuire exhibits an almost Martian-like unfamiliarity with humans and their psychological flaws:

Humans have done some pretty dumb things in the past, both as individuals and collectively. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine that we would sign up to self-imposed genocide simply to put a bit more cash in the pockets of fossil fuel company CEOs.

First, the phrase "simply to" does not apply, as it erroneously implies conscious intent. Nobody drives to a filling station with the aim of helping Vladimir Putin finance his latest illegal war of aggression. Rather, that is an unintended consequence of Vlad's customers buying fossil fuels so they can consume direct benefits to self (e.g., effortless mobility). Does McGuire also think cocaine addicts have the goal of enriching the latest Mexican drug cartel? No; cocaine addicts simply want to get high.

Second, the vast majority of people are simply oblivious to the genocide they cause by burning fossil fuels. Most people take pains not to read any books like this one. What's crystal-clear to McGuire and his readers is opaque to the average person. Even people who acknowledge the reality of climate change rarely behave as if they've connected it to their own actions.

Third, McGuire rightly acknowledges that people have done some other dumb things. But he doesn't seem aware of just how dumb. At least when people burn fossil fuels, almost all of the harm they inflict lands on someone else. The long-term nature of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means that most of the heating effect of your individual emissions will accumulate after you die. Not so with the stupidity of drinking alcohol, smoking tobacco, and using other recreational drugs. Much of the harm from those activities lands on the people who do them. Tobacco for example kills around 460,000 Americans per year. Booze kills another 140,000. The sloth-gluttony nexus kills another 200,000. During the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the disease killed over one million Americans, and America's death rate was several times higher than Japan's, mainly because in Japan nearly everyone wears masks in public. So many Americans were killed by their own stupidity during the pandemic that a Web site documents some who boasted about it.

Compared to all the other stupid ways that millions of Americans sicken and kill themselves, we can't be too surprised when they enrich the fossil fuel industry with their genocide pact. If it's hard for McGuire to imagine just how stupid so many people are, he should read psychology.

I mentioned that McGuire recommends blowing up oil pipelines, because he found the arguments in a book convincing. I'm surprised that a scientist could be persuaded by arguments, rather than by evidence. Arguments don't tell us whether a particular strategy will be useful for fighting climate change. Instead we need actual data.

Fortunately (or not), we have Vladimir Putin testing that claim right now in Ukraine. The Russian military has been raining missiles on Ukraine's "energy infrastructure" (a euphemism that generally refers to fossil-fueled electricity generating plants). Thus we have a large-scale, real-world experiment to test whether blowing up fossil fuel infrastructure actually produces a durable reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. McGuire should stop being convinced by arguments i.e. speculation and wait for some high-quality studies.

One obvious problem with eco-terrorism is that if you're not a nation-state like Russia, indulging in it tends to land you in prison. See for example the eco-terrorist Ted Kaczinsky (the "Unabomber"). Humans have a long experience with violence as a political tool. And governments have a long experience with combating it. This seems to be just about the stupidest way to fight climate change I can think of.

Since greenhouse gas emissions are caused by human behavior, blowing up pipelines will only help if it persuades somebody to drive and fly less. Given that most people do not connect their personal consumption habits to climate change in any way, how will blowing up pipelines educate them?

In any case, if we're going to try negative messaging, there are plenty of legal options to try first. You probably won't go to prison if you verbally abuse the planet-rapers you see. Such as everyone who drives a fossil-fueled car or flies on a fossil-fueled airplane. I call this the "social carbon tax." Make people pay a little price in social opprobrium when they help to wreck the climate. Best of all, we don't need any help from the politicians to do it.

[Erik Champenois · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was the second book-length treatment of climate change I've read (after Spencer Weart's "The Discovery of Global Warming"). It's a useful overview of the dangers of climate change today and in the years ahead, and particularly informed by the author's profession as a geologist with contextualized information about how climate change today and in the future compares to past geological and climate events.

I must admit that the book frightened me. In the Afterword, McGuire states that he intentionally wants his readers to be frightened or worried, and says that he suspects his readers will either "be seething at what you perceive to be gratuitous alarmism or biting your nails with worry." I'm not a big fan of that approach, which contrasts with the rather more sensible and gentle approach that Weart takes in his book (which admittedly focuses more on the history of scientific discovery than on the projected impacts of climate change). On the other hand, I can appreciate the feelings of anxiety, depression, and discouragement that many climate scientists experience, aware of the dangers and potential impacts of climate change and observing all too little action taken by leaders around the world to drive down emissions and lower the risks.

McGuire describes the geological history of planet Earth as one that modulates between the three settings of "greenhouse" (ice-free and tropical conditions extending to the poles-this has been the case for three-quarters or more of Earth's history), "fridge" (lower temperatures with ice sheets at the poles), and "freezer" (the Earth entirely or almost entirely covered with ice). The "freezer" state has only happened twice, both times long before humans existed, with the most recent time, the Cryogenian Period between 720 and 635 million years ago, resulting in a global average temperature of -12 C. Since the Cambrian Explosion 541 million years ago, Earth has mostly been in the "greenhouse" setting, with average temperatures averaging 27 C or even 30 C. Ice ages have intervened, however, with the last glacial episode peaking 20,000 years ago, at temperatures at least 6 C lower than today. (Today's global average temperature is 14.9 C.)

McGuire also mentions the "8.2ka" event (8200 years ago), when a glacial lake in North America emptied into the North Atlantic, raising sea levels by up to 4 meters almost overnight and slowing or stopping the Gulf Stream, triggering centuries of cooling with temperatures falling by as much as 5 C in some parts of the world, resulting in drought and a paucity of water that may have encouraged the eventual development of irrigation and gathering together into bigger communities in Mesopotamia. While 5-6 C doesn't sound like much, the fact that this is what separates us from the peak of the last glacial episode and that this amount of degree change may have been what trigged the development of agricultural civilization should prepare us for potentially significant societal effects resulting from a similar level of warming if such were to occur in the years ahead. (Fortunately, we should peak at less than that, and most likely under 3 C, but that will still result in significant impacts, and we ought to take more drastic action to lower the temperature change as much as possible).

The rest of the book lists the numerous impacts of climate change in the years ahead: rising sea levels, more frequent and more severe heat waves, sea level rises and heating potentially making parts of the currently inhabited world uninhabitable, drought, flooding, impacts on agricultural yields and food security, more severe hurricanes, and the spread of infectious diseases including cholera, malaria, etc.

McGuire is at his most controversial in his "stings in the tail" chapter that covers high-risk events/processes that some scientists postulate could happen but around which there isn't yet full scientific consensus: the possibility of the Gulf Stream shutting down (which would lead to much colder temperatures in northern Europe and North America and contribute to drying out the Amazon), forests and vegetations potentially turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources, "methane bombs" emerging from the thawing Arctic permafrost and leading to a self-reinforcing cycle of further warming, and a potential rise in the frequency and severity of earthquakes. McGuire also treats the potential political implications of climate change in a chapter on "climate wars."

At well under 200 pages, in a short sized format, and without any footnotes or endnotes, McGuire doesn't cover the science of climate change impacts as sensibly, carefully, or contextually as I would have wished, quantifying potential impacts here and there, but without the kind of contextualization that would help me feel satisfied that I have a good understanding of just how severe the climate crisis is or can be and where the world is headed - especially when it comes to the more complicated geopolitical and geo-economic arena. Of course, it is still unclear how quickly the world will decarbonize, and the rate and level of projected impacts have significant potential ranges in many cases. And how those impacts will interact with political and economic trends is an even more complex question, likely dependent more on the institutions and resiliency of institutions involved than on the climate itself.

McGuire's approach - to focus as much, if not more, on the risks than on "the most likely end result" of climate impacts - is one approach, important in itself for raising the alarm and drawing attention to the need to take action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. At the end of the book he pictures two different versions of London in 2100 to demonstrate the choice before us. I would personally have preferred a longer treatment and more contextualized approach that covers both risks and the most likely trajectories in front of us, including attention to the positive developments that are already taking place, even if not enough to avoid the 1.5 or 2.0 degree targets set internationally. Still, this is a good but sobering introduction to climate change, but I recommend taking a break from the literature and/or contextualizing with other sources to avoid "biting your nails with worry" too much.

[Kai · Rating 4 out of 5]

To the point: we’re fukt

[Ryan Mizzen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Hothouse Earth by Bill McGuire is crucial reading for everyone with a stake in the future.

This science-based book is easy to read and provides an overview of how climate breakdown will affect everyone and everything.

It was released during the summer that's seen the UK's hottest day on record, as well as drought, heatwaves and wildfires take hold across the northern hemisphere. This book shows that we can't afford to bury our heads in the sand any longer. Each and every person has a responsibility to fight for climate action and to join the climate movement now.

My full review can be read here: www.ryanmizzen.com/hothouse-earth-by-...

[Angel Lemke]

Give this to anyone you know is considering having kids. The situation is not without hope, but it could be by the time the pandemic babies reach adulthood. There's a line in Angels in America that comes to mind: "Before life on earth becomes impossible, it will--for a long time before--be unbearable."

[Donald Firesmith · Rating 5 out of 5]

This should be mandatory reading for every person on the planet. And politicians should have to read it over and over again until they take the climate crisis seriously and take the necessary steps. Dr. McGuire pulls no punches when he presents the latest scientific understanding in a clear and forceful manner.

[Peter Tucker]

McGuire's climate timeline is not as pessimistic and as short as say Guy McPherson's Nature Bats Last. He's also not as philosophical as William Reese. On the optimistic end, most authors refer to the IPCC's timeline as a sort of compromised consensus. Also as a UK Volcanologist and Emeritus Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards McGuire has much more credibility than say journalists like David Wallace Wells on the subject. McGuire's book contains plenty to be depressed about. And yet he still advocates the fight. Its authors and teachers like McGuire and Kevin Anderson, who inspire the rest of us.

In America we have pretenders like Roy Scranton ("We're Doomed, Now What?") who's 'creative writing' is worse than worthless. Maybe Douglas Adams can scale down his "Restaurant at the End of The Universe" to fit the occasion? With current human population the largest, yet still only a small percentage of those ever born, its fortuitous to be a witness to climate catastrophe, on the edge of a demographic cliff and decline. I'm near 70, with no children; I'm vegan, grow my own vegies, walk and cycle rather than drive, don't fly. What else?

Take solace in the conversations of Michael Dowd's Post-Doom? The writings of Dahr Jamail, Jordon Perry, Jem Bendell, and others? Tom Wessel's "Forest Forensics". Rediscovering Aldo Leopold, Wendell Berry.

[Johan D'Haenen · Rating 5 out of 5]

Bill McGuire maakt een stand van zaken op en, zoals te verwachten was, is die absoluut niet rooskleurig. Voor elk aspect van de klimaatverandering haalt hij de nodige cijfers aan en wijst erop hoe alles met alles in verband staat... het ene lokt het andere uit.
Voor wie zich al jaren met de materie bezig houdt komt er niets nieuws uit de bus, maar toch mag en moet het allemaal nog maar eens gezegd worden.
Is dit een gids? Wat mij betreft niet. Dit is een vaststelling... en al wie deze vaststelling niet ernstig neemt is een doortrapte egoïst wie het geen barst kan schelen hoe het de volgende generaties zal vergaan.

[O.S. Prime · Rating 4 out of 5]

One could find this book somewhat bleak, but if you already have an understanding of where climate is going, this book may simply confirm your internalized bleak outlook. Otherwise, it is good. What I liked best is how McGuire covered so many different aspects of climate change, more often stated as "climate breakdown". In particular, McGuire links the geological record to where we are now and may soon be in a way that firms up what most people only know from climate models.

[Cordelia · Rating 5 out of 5]

An exploration of the possible extent and impacts of climate change written by an eminent climate scientist. Depressing but fascinating reading. I wish everyone who cares about someone who might be around for more than the next decade or so would read this book and act!

For me it leads straight to the questions of what I can do (he has some sound suggestions at the end) and what kind of life do I want for my children?

[Rhiannon Bevan · Rating 4 out of 5]

The statistics in place got a bit overwhelming and repetitive sometimes (I gathered that last summer was hot after the 5th example of wildfires) but aside from that, did the job.
I'm successfully fucking terrified.

[Shay · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is terrifying, and written in the sort of style and with the sort of approach that would normally turn me off. But it’s full of data and it’s really refreshing to read a book that tackles the climate crisis head on without being conservative. It paints an incredibly bleak picture of the future of climate breakdown; I didn’t find it optimistic at all about how likely we are to avert disaster, but the global response to Covid-19 leads me to suspect that this is probably correct - or at the very least highly plausible.

[Gnost · Rating 4 out of 5]

The kind of blunt and urgent explanation of our future we need in a world of anxious malaise with regards to climate action. 4 stars instead of 5 because of his shitty fanfic in the last few pages

[Donovan · Rating 5 out of 5]

you should read this

[Sara · Rating 4 out of 5]

We are fucked. This pulled no punches and it was great.

[Rohini Murugan · Rating 4 out of 5]

I was punched in the face with a deluge of facts. Just numbers after numbers. And they kept coming.

CO2 concentrations have increased by zz ppm since the 1800s. Inches that the sea will rise in x number of years. The xx million people who might die or lose their livelihood because of increasing carbon emissions. The xx% increase in tropical diseases because temperatures are going to rise which means it is sauna time for all disease vectors. How urban cities are y degrees hotter than rural areas or the suburbs because we have designed our cities so badly that we are all going to be burnt alive in its embers.

My memory is very sketchy about the exact details of all the different phenomena by which we are building a pyre for the entirety of humanity through climate change. It was a LOT of phenomenon. And the human mind's working memory is only so much. I, and I presume much of the readers, would have started blocking out the statistics and the numbers by at least the fifth page of the book. It is enough that I know a lot of people are going to go through gruesome deaths. I do not need to know exactly how many people. One is already too many.

So, I hope this dark hopeless dreary review has motivated you to grab a copy of this book. If it hasn't yet, know that I am from the subcontinent of India and I have personally begun to make architectural decisions for the house, keeping climate change in mind. Because it is no longer in the future. It is no longer a speculative theory that can be made into beautiful apocalyptic films. It is here. It is the present. So, you might as well arm yourself with as much knowledge as you can before it hits your neighbourhood.

[Julie · Rating 4 out of 5]

Worth reading for sure but would have liked a works cited list.

[Joe Hudson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Vital reading for everyone

This book is scary. But it is vital reading. We are sleepwalking into catastrophe. We all need to change our ways.

Please take some time this year to read and share this book.

The consequences of inaction don't bear thinking about.

My only criticism of the text would be that there are a lot of statistics, data, and theories but there are no footnotes linking to their sources. I prefer to see evidence of where numbers come from so I can judge their legitimacy. I have done background reading on the author and he does seem to be well-respected and trustworthy.

[Diogenes Grief · Rating 5 out of 5]

One more fist in the face to all the deniers out there. British volcanologist and Emeritus Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College in London, McGuire is on the front lines of the science, which by his own admission is complex, difficult, and crucial. Most climate scientists will say that COP26 (the 26th Conference of Parties) UN Climate Change Conference was the most important meeting in the history of humankind. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that followed (https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/) were blunt and sobering to anyone who read them, and as McGuire states in the Forward of this book, “we need to plan for the worst even as we hope for the best” (p. 16).

Nobody can say we haven’t be warned, from Roger Revelle in 1956 to the very first IPCC report in 1990, the scientific community has been predicting the effects of a warming world, and for more than three decades those warnings have fallen on deaf and defiant ears to those who hold the reins of power. “If world leaders had taken purposeful avoiding action in 1990, when the IPCC launched its first report, we could well be on top of the problem now, with fossil fuels largely consigned to the dustbin, renewables dominant and emissions under control and on the way down. But this never happened. Instead, despite successive IPCC assessments flagging the increasing urgency of the threat, serious action to tackle what is now, without doubt, an emergency situation failed to materialize” (p. 26). Greed, willful ignorance, myopia, and sociopathy have kicked the can down the road, and half-measures won’t matter. It looks likely the Earth will breach the +1.5° Celsius “guardrail” mark quickly, and 2.0°C is quite possible by century’s end, if not higher. Warmer ambient temperatures, longer hotter summers and shorter warmer winters, melting ice caps and glaciers, rising sea levels, lake-river-aquifer depletion, desertification, floods, droughts, storms, famines, mass migration, increasingly widespread vector-born pathogens, mental health issues exacerbated, overpopulation, social unrest, civil strife, and violence as the end-result of feral desperation . . . this is what a collapsing climate will bring to humanity, as it depletes whatever resources remain.

“Our climate is being destroyed by unadulterated, free-market capitalism—an ideology that simply cannot be sustained on a small planet with limited resources. It is a system that has no interest in the greater good and that rewards inordinate capital and the few that have it, rather than the majority who don’t. It cares nothing for the environment or biodiversity and doesn’t give a fig about the fate of future generations. In fact, it is exactly the wrong economic system to have in place at a time of global crisis. The bankruptcy of the system is especially well upheld in the grossly asymmetric portioning of carbon emissions between the rich elite and everyone else” (p. 146).

In terrifying truth is that the only way to soften the blow on the future life on this planet is to immediately cease all carbon and methane emissions right . . . f-ing . . . now.

It didn’t happen, did it? No, it never will unless we directly force the powers-that-be to do so.

The Inflation Reduction Act is significant, but the bar was set painfully low, and it’s not nearly enough to make a true difference, threaded with predictable hypocrisies for corporations, industries, and their political hand-puppets. Democracy is on life-support right now too. “The measure of the maturity of any society must be how well it looks after the needs of every one of its people, and how it cares for the planet and all life thereon, by which metric we are little more than toddlers flailing about aimlessly in the dark” (pp. 146-7). When it comes to global warming and climate collapse, we have one last straw to grab. It’s now or never, and we need a complete systemic change of human society world-wide.

“The truth is, playing down the potential worst effects of global heating and climate breakdown is far worse than raising the alarm and amounts to what I like to call climate appeasement. It does nothing to help spur the urgent action that is required, and by underplaying the climate threat it works—intentionally or not—to encourage a grudging and cautionary approach to emissions cuts that we can no longer afford.

On the other hand, if you have been worried or frightened by what you have read, that’s good, you should be, especially on behalf of your children and their children. But don’t let fear feed inertia. Fear does not have to be paralyzing. Indeed, it is often the driver of effective action. No one ever won a war while knowing no fear, and make no mistake, this is a war. Wherever we live on this magnificent planet, we all need to do our utmost to try to keep it that way. The fact that the future looks dismal is not an excuse to do nothing, to imagine it’s all too late. On the contrary, it is a call to arms” (p. 144).

[Henry Gee · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a short, sharp, shock of a book. It is the most concise and authoritative summary of the current state of the world’s climate of which I am aware. As to short, it’ll fit in a pocket, and I read it in one sitting. As for its sharpness, it doesn’t waste time laying out the threats faced by all of us imposed by climate change created by human actions. And the shock? These threats are imminent, and they are dire: the book will be a salutary reminder and rallying call for even most informed climate-change watcher. Within the next few decades, there will be times when large parts of the Earth will be uninhabitable to humans and the crops on which humans depend. The heat is destabilising weather, leading to unseasonable heatwaves in the Arctic and blizzards in Texas. It’ll be hot, but it’ll also be dry. Drought also afflicts much of the world, not least those parts that are politically unstable and from which millions of migrants are on the move. Rivers and reservoirs are drying, leaving hydroelectric power dams high and dry. Wildfires are everywhere. Amid the drought, it’ll be wet. Not English fine-drizzle wet, but suddenly, Biblically wet, inundations that’ll cause overwhelming floods. The short and sharp end of the shock is that all these things are happening now, and are getting worse as you watch. The Earth is no stranger to climate change (McGuire sets this out too) but the difference between then and now is that anthropogenic climate change has been so sudden, and although people have been aware of it — and have been doing things to mitigate it — much more needs to be done. The book deserves to be read by everybody, and not just climate activists. It’s a shame, then, that he preaches solely to the choir and seems to show contempt for the very people this book needs to reach.

Raising the alarm, in our current circumstances, is a good thing. It fits with … the idea that we need to really know our enemy — in this case global heating – and how well it is armed, if we want to defeat it. My view is that, currently, most members of the public, and indeed most world leaders, simply do not. [p. 160]

He continues, evoking shades of Marie Antoinette:

The fact that the word ‘cake’ was mentioned ten times more than ‘climate change’ on UK television in 2020 says it all about how true appreciation of the nature and scale of the climate emergency has yet to break through. [pp160-161].

Advocating direct action, public transport, walking and cycling is all very well for a middle class Guardian reader, but is less likely to impress the small-town mother of three who has to do a weekly shop, and three different school runs, before her 13-hour shift as a nurse, or her tradesman partner, for whom the price of an electric vehicle is way out of reach; and for whom privileged people who have the leisure to disrupt fuel supply and transport are at best irrelevant and at worst a threat to their livelihoods and those on whose presence they depend. Yet these are the people — ordinary, regular people, not the metropolitan elite — who need to be convinced. To call for boycotts of and disinvestment in fossil fuel companies sounds nice but is naive, and doesn’t take into account the policies of those companies which, if they are wise, will plough their profits into renewable energy schemes. Rather than boycotts, one could argue that the sensible strategy would be to invest more, not less, and so have a restraining voice at shareholder meetings. And to rail against free-market capitalism is to castigate the very system that has enabled this author to acquire the expertise necessary to write this book and the freedom to to express his views. It is flawed, to be sure, but takes no account of the alternatives. The planned, collectivist economies of Russia and China caused famine and hardship on an industrial scale, and they did it all on their own — climate change was neither here nor there. DISCLAIMER: This review is based on uncorrected proofs sent to me by the author.

[Casey · Rating 5 out of 5]

Horrific, shocking, disturbing. This audiobook is full of facts and studies about climate change, which he calls "global heating," about what's happening now and what is likely coming. Most of the worst effects are inevitable at this point, though some can be dulled if the world stops emitting greenhouse gases now (primarily carbon dioxide and methane). But that will not happen.

The emissions are not slowing down... they are increasing. This 3-day Memorial Day weekend, airports in the U.S. were packed with record numbers of travelers and the cruise industry is suddenly swamped with passengers, post Covid. (Though Covid is not gone -- we've had numerous friends get Covid in the last few months, some for the first time. One was in bed miserable for two weeks.)

The U.S. government still subsidizes the oil and gas industry despite their billions in profits and no legislator would dare to challenge that since their political careers depend on donations from the industry.

The author tried to present some hope at the end, but it was thin and weak. The book was published in early 2022, before the major flooding in 2023 in California and elsewhere in the world, and the tornadoes spreading farther east from Tornado Alley.

I kept this audiobook off when my (adopted) daughter was in the house. She knows all about climate change and gets upset when she hears about it. (We're doing our part with our EV and vegan meals.) She's graduating high school and wants to travel and have a life and a future. Since I've already enjoyed a long life, it's more her future that hurts me.

Highly recommended to those who are willing to stare reality in the face, unflinching.

[Lucy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great book to start with if interested about the change of world's global heating.

Geologist and Activist, Bill McGuire covers history - mostly stuff we already know but great for readers who aren't as perhaps informed as I am - when we flick into the 21st century, things start heating up in the book that's for sure and become so much more enjoyable reading wise there is a lot to learn about and McGuire's only too happy to share it with you.

Causes of the global heating issues and also the effects are very well explained and the book touches on social political issues as well as getting down to alarming and nitty gritty facts such as food security, climate issues and humanity. The book also touches on the effects we are having on our planet but also the consequences in our environment including heat related fires, floods and deaths and of course the effects of unrest in both the human and animal world.

The best thing about this book is that everything that needs to be referred to is all in one book making it accessible and also there is the online resources but also there is an offline resource pool too.

This in an inspirational book but it's also a wake up call to our climate and also ourselves.

With thanks to netgalley and the publishers for this FREE ARC in return for my review.

[Denisa Tomíková · Rating 5 out of 5]

Áno, čítala som o téme klimatickej zmeny a krízy aj lepšie knihy, ale vidím v tejto knihe veľký potenciál. Rovno si idem vyhľadať iné publikácie (pokojne aj odborné) od tohto autora. Páči sa mi, ako túto tému spracoval čitateľky priaznivým spôsobom.
V knihe nájdeš množstvo problémov, ktorých sme svedkami už dnes a ktoré sa budú postupne zhoršovať napr. meteorologické zmeny ako prívalové dažde, silné suchá, vysoké teploty, zvýšenie hladín oceánov, zánik mnohých obývateľných území, nedostatok potravín, narastajúce konflikty, migrácia, hladomor, nárast počtu komárov, znečistenie pitnej vody atď. A toto všetko sa bude diať drasticky kvôli klimatickej kríze, ktorá je realitou.

Knihu "Horúca planéta" odporúčam každému, koho zaujíma v akom svete žije a kam tento svet smeruje. A ak sa ti snažia politici nasadiť ružové okuliare, že nás sa toto netýka, tak ti klamú. Ak ťa téma zaujme a budeš si chcieť vyhľadať viac informácií, na konci tejto knihy nájdeš niekoľko ďalších zdrojov na čítanie. Ak sa v tejto téme už pohybuješ, tak táto kniha pre teba bude len zopakovanie základov (asi v nej nič nové neobjavíš), ale možno som ti dala tip na darček pre niekoho, kto túto tému nerieši alebo jej nerozumie.