The Yellow Pad: Making Better Decisions in an Uncertain World

by Robert E. Rubin

Robert Rubin, former United States Secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, distills the wisdom of a career spanning more than half a century in markets, business, government, and politics, to offer readers an astute and original guide for living and dealing with uncertainty

In 1957, Robert Rubin took a class as a college sophomore, and it changed his life. The professor's name was Raphael Demos and the subject of the class was an introduction to philosophy. But what Professor Demos was really teaching his students, and what struck Rubin so profoundly, was how to think about thinking itself. The realization that would stay with Rubin for the rest of his life, guiding him on a glittering career to the heights of both finance and politics, was that there is no such thing as certainty. Uncertainty is everywhere and we must learn to live with it, if we hope to succeed. But what does this really entail at a time when decision-makers in both government and business are faced with a series of worsening and often interlocking crises? How can we make good decisions in the face of severe political turmoil, a burgeoning and existential climate crisis, and confronted with the lingering threat of global pandemic? In other words, how can we make good decisions when the stakes are desperately high?

In The Yellow Pad, Rubin sets out a number of methods and processes that have guided him through moments of high-stakes crises, sharing with the reader fascinating and thrilling stories from the halls of power in Washington and on Wall Street. He offers both qualitative and quantitative ways of sifting through difficult economic and social problems, the sum of which is an enthralling and original intellectual framework that can be applied to both the most global universal problems as well as the more quotidian dilemmas we all face in our personal lives. Rubin speaks generously and with hard-won wisdom across generations and the political divide, engaging with the most contested and emotional issues of our times, and seeking to propose realistic policy solutions to move society forward without leaving anyone behind.

Genres: Business, Nonfiction, Audiobook, Self Help, Politics, Finance, Biography Memoir

336 pages, Hardcover

Published May 16, 2023

Reviews

[Ali · Rating 4 out of 5]

Former Secretary of Treasury Robert Rubin’s Yellow Pad reads like Richard Thaler’s Nudge offering probabilistic decision making on many public policy issues. It is more of a memoir with many Wall Street or White House anecdotes rather than a self-help or how-to book on decision making. If you’re not into American politics or socioeconomics go with Annie Duke or Adam Grant or maybe Kahneman’s classic.

[John M · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is an intelligent, articulate, and clarifying discussion of the complexity of decision making. Robert Rubin describes the necessary prerequisites and processes to get to the best decision possible, while admitting freely that it still might not work out! But that is no excuse for not doing your best.
As opposed to the usual "X Steps to Better Decisions" approach, Rubin embraces the complexity of bias, learning from mistakes, that little in life is black or white or right or wrong, nor is every decision the end of the world, and ultimately the variablility of Human Nature itself. Humble and self depreciating I trusted what Rubin had to offer since he admitted mistakes and success in equal measure. Well worth the read, even if you are not interested in "decision making as an artform" because it will make you think better. I was refreshed after every chapter.

[Averie Thomas]

Not my usual genre, but we were assigned this book at work. Rubin has obviously had a very accomplished career at the highest levels of government and business, which make for some interesting anecdotes and examples to illustrate his points. His overall “yellow pad” method for decision making really just boils down to a simple expected return calculation with probabilities assigned to different scenarios. Outside of this, he also shares his thoughts about what’s currently broken in government, qualities that can make someone successful in their careers, and how to be a good leader. I agreed with a lot of his thoughts and disagreed with others. Looking forward to returning to novels.

[Alan Eyre · Rating 4 out of 5]

Finished. Very good book on the virtues of probabilistic thinking in policy and finance. More importantly though, it reaffirms the values of citizens seeking to rationally engage with the issues with the goal of making a better tomorrow.

[Sanjay Banerjee · Rating 5 out of 5]

The author - an ex-US Treasury Secretary and an ex-senior leadership team member of Goldman Sachs (apart from his other accomplishments) prescribes a framework for decision making which entails a listing of various probable outcomes and their likelihood of occurrence - of course, the devil is in the details and the process by which such listing and assessment of probabilities is done with intellectual rigour. He provides numerous examples from his own experiences in the Govt, in the world of Business and other arenas. While recounting these, he often strays into various other contemporary global and US-related issues (like climate change, state of US politics etc). But I found his analysis in these matters to be absorbing too and definitely worth a reading if not active consideration.

[Brian Williams · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an inspirational memoir by an accomplished US businessman. Mr. Rubin was a partner at Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration. After that he went to Citibank where he encountered some issues at the time of the Great Recession.
In this book he advocates for better decision-making in public-policy (and business). The approach is to listen to more people in order to increase the amount of input and then do a probability-based analysis (using a yellow legal pad), rather than simply rely on past experience and intuition. It's a book to be studied, not just read. At the very least, it's necessary to read it twice. (It's slightly preachy in places).
The author's best tip to remember: Don't take anything for granted.
Recommended.

[Amy · Rating 4 out of 5]

If I could give half star I’d give this 3.5 stars. There is a lot to digest. This is very much a memoir, more so than I had anticipated and there was something humanizing about that. But since he talks a lot about the human element in decision making perhaps that is in purpose to understand his curated background. The first half was interesting in his discussion of values, culture, business vs public servant sector. The next quarter financial policy discussion and last part broader policy challenges and ways to think critically and engage others of different views and beliefs. Outside of the financial policy discussion it was easy to understand. I need to go back give this a re-read but will let it sit a while.

[Michael Matute · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was a life changing book from one of America's underrated leaders. I have long admired Robert Rubin's views on business and public policy, and read his prior book. The Yellow Pad is not a how-to book on methodology, and is instead a broader study of what Rubin believes are better ways of thinking and making decisions.
Mechanically, the book is both intellectually dense and also tightly written so it does not feel like a slog. There are no wasted words, and not a single typo or grammatical error (at least in the hardcover I checked out from the library).
Whether you are business oriented or public government oriented, young or old, this book is well worth your time.

[Lucas · Rating 4 out of 5]

4/5
- Many things (like risk) are spectrums. Not binary
- When making decisions, try figuring out how it will go wrong. Overestimate unlikely outcomes & try to see how people will get around your decisions (human factor - clinton capping CEO salaries)
- Decision soundness doesn’t equal outcomes (don’t focus on outcomes)
- Write down decision outcomes and use expected values to decide (probability X payout) - probabilistic thinking

Solid book but not always focused on decision-making. Many tangents (the world according to Rubin) about gov, fiscal policy, etc, but doesn’t matter too much since he’s very interesting/thoughtful

[Ben Howard · Rating 3 out of 5]

The stories regarding his time in the Clinton administration and his understanding of fiscal policy are very interesting and well explained. He ultimately believes an inability to delay gratification, which exists among all political groups, is the main cause for most economic problems. He makes a solid argument behind this.

I wish he would have done a more thorough job explaining social policy and his view that there are no objective standards. On one hand he argues there is no objective truth but then he states there are universal truths that are purely subjective.

[Suzanne · Rating 3 out of 5]

I found this pretty dry reading, and really more of a memoir than any kind of guide to making better decisions. I think the decision to read this book was not one of my better ones. I also think the cover of the edition I read was not one of the publisher's better decisions; I got it from the library after reading a good review. If I had judged that book by its cover, I would have passed.

[Venki · Rating 4 out of 5]

Started strong with a Yellow Pad framework on making decisions (Decision, Expected Value) and then petered around topics that were neither in memoir or practitioner zip codes. Overall, gave it 3.5/5 due to his insights in being in the elite halls of power in Business (Goldman and Citi) and Politics (White House) unfortunately expected more with that level of pedigree.

[Dan Zwirn · Rating 4 out of 5]

A must-read for anyone who enjoyed his prior book, ‘In an Uncertain World,” the book brings a similar blend of self-effacing perspectives and conditional probability-based thinking to compelling anecdotes from the highest levels of finance and government and more recent economic and societal issues while also being instructive on the management of large complex organizations.

[Nate Bleadorn · Rating 4 out of 5]

I especially liked the part about negotiation and making decisions. He talked about how it's easy to end up somewhere in the middle of the idea you like vs what the team likes. It's better off to go all one way or the other, instead of trying to mash ideas together for some type of hybrid nobody likes.

[Anne Rolim · Rating 3 out of 5]

I agree with most if not all of his positions, but it seems a bit self-absorbed in a privileged white male perspective. He actually recognizes that but it’s hard to relate when an ex-Goldman Sachs partner that may or may not have been successful talks about economic and social policy. His heart seems in the right place and we need people like him, but just nothing revolutionary here.

[Benjamin Crumm · Rating 4 out of 5]

a bit of business and politics

I didn't realize how much this would touch on politics/policy, but it reads a bit like a book someone writes before running for office. Well written and strong ideas, although it gets a bit repetitive.

[gary · Rating 3 out of 5]

The premise of the book about uncertain outcomes and writing down outcomes on a yellow pad is very basic. And the discussion about decision making under uncertainty is very simplistic. The part that’s more enjoyable is the specific biographical incidents at Goldman Sachs and in the government.

[Kent M. · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good content, but I found the content meandered.

That’s not to discount the content, which I found meaningful, reasonable, and reasonable.

[WT · Rating 2 out of 5]

Not good. High level motherhood thoughts and statements

[Glorianna · Rating 3 out of 5]

One must think probabilistically. Sums up the entire book. Not a really original concept. Lots of stories of Robert E Rubin's life.

[Seth Petok · Rating 5 out of 5]

rational and determined decision-making across decades in biz and government

[Jennifer · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thought provoking read.

[Melissa Michelle · Rating 5 out of 5]

I truly enjoyed reading this book and it came at the perfect moment.

[Kate · Rating 1 out of 5]

DNF Audio

[Michelle · Rating 2 out of 5]

Soapboxy and I think I learned nothing. Might be useful to read if someone needs an introduction to the liberal POV or cost benefit analysis.

[Irene Eng · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not the best of memoirs by our government employees. Dry and repetitive, like the name suggests

[Margaret Mechinus · Rating 1 out of 5]

Boring.