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Megathreats: Our Ten Biggest Threats, and How to Survive Them
The bestselling author of CRISIS ECONOMICS argues that we are heading toward the worst economic catastrophe of our lifetimes, unless we can defend against ten terrifying threats.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr. Doom,” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true--when it was too late. Now he is back with a much scarier prediction, one that we ignore at our peril. There are no fewer than ten overlapping, interconnected threats that are so serious, he calls them Megathreats. From the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen, to governments pumping out too much money, to borders that are blocked to workers and to many shipments of goods, to the rise of a new superpower competition between China and the U.S., to climate change that strikes directly at our most populated cities, we are facing not one, not two, but ten causes of disaster. There is a slight chance we can avoid them, if we come to our senses—but we must act now.
In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth. Today, we are heading toward a Great Stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini was nicknamed “Dr. Doom,” until his prediction of the 2008 housing crisis and Great Recession came true--when it was too late. Now he is back with a much scarier prediction, one that we ignore at our peril. There are no fewer than ten overlapping, interconnected threats that are so serious, he calls them Megathreats. From the worst debt crisis the world has ever seen, to governments pumping out too much money, to borders that are blocked to workers and to many shipments of goods, to the rise of a new superpower competition between China and the U.S., to climate change that strikes directly at our most populated cities, we are facing not one, not two, but ten causes of disaster. There is a slight chance we can avoid them, if we come to our senses—but we must act now.
In the 1970s, the U.S. faced high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth. Today, we are heading toward a Great Stagflation that will make the 1970s look like a walk in the park.
295 pages, Kindle Edition
Published October 20, 2022
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About the author
Nouriel Roubini
14 books167 followersNouriel Roubini is a Persian American professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm.
Roubini's critical economic views have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" in the media. In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage". The New York Times notes that he foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt". In September 2006, he warned a skeptical IMF that "the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession". Nobel laureate Paul Krugman adds that his once "seemingly outlandish" predictions have been matched "or even exceeded by reality."
As Roubini's descriptions of the current economic crisis have proven to be accurate, he is today a major figure in the U.S. and international debate about the economy, and spends much of his time shuttling between meetings with central bank governors and finance ministers in Europe and Asia. He has appeared before the US Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the World Economic Forum at Davos.
Roubini's critical economic views have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" in the media. In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage". The New York Times notes that he foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt". In September 2006, he warned a skeptical IMF that "the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession". Nobel laureate Paul Krugman adds that his once "seemingly outlandish" predictions have been matched "or even exceeded by reality."
As Roubini's descriptions of the current economic crisis have proven to be accurate, he is today a major figure in the U.S. and international debate about the economy, and spends much of his time shuttling between meetings with central bank governors and finance ministers in Europe and Asia. He has appeared before the US Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the World Economic Forum at Davos.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 114 reviews
November 2, 2022
Lite weight / not numerical / filled with platitudes worthy of a tarot card reader (no disrespect to tarot card readers) / seems like a hastily written book for the purpose of time stamping prediction of a calamity to credentialize themselves on the talking head circuit / I’d skip it unless you don’t read the news
November 8, 2022
'There is no gravitational limit to human behavior' ... to paraphrase Roubini, I think captures the essence of the book to me. Ten significant systemic mega threats unleashed by humans that humans can mitigate, adapt to, or solve if only we knew how to get along.
Pick a threat;
- Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations,
- the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China,
- AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans,
- the rapid growth of viral epidemics in the last 60 years,
- unsustainably massive explicit (official) plus implicit (think pensions and insurance promises) debts (22x official debt) and financial instability,
- rapidly aging populations,
- deglobalization is a long-term driver of inflation and slower growth,
- and slow growth + massive inequality fuels populism, which in turn fuels nativism, which in turn is the catnip for authoritarianism and totalitarianism.
Solutions are scarce and given our domestic and global politics ... aspirational
- Leverage legal migration for faster economic growth (55% of $1B start-ups in the USA are founded by immigrants)
- rapidly advance technologies such as fusion reactors for energy generation
- embrace global cooperation as no one country can address any one threat (let alone ten) alone
As Roubini concludes and as Kristalina Georgieva (IMF Managing Director) recently said "Buckle Up" ... this is going to be a bumpy ride through a very dark night.
Pick a threat;
- Climate Change unleashing massive dislocations and forced migrations,
- the Thucydides Trap of the world's superpower feeling threatened by China,
- AI & Robotics creating millions if not billions of "surplus" humans,
- the rapid growth of viral epidemics in the last 60 years,
- unsustainably massive explicit (official) plus implicit (think pensions and insurance promises) debts (22x official debt) and financial instability,
- rapidly aging populations,
- deglobalization is a long-term driver of inflation and slower growth,
- and slow growth + massive inequality fuels populism, which in turn fuels nativism, which in turn is the catnip for authoritarianism and totalitarianism.
Solutions are scarce and given our domestic and global politics ... aspirational
- Leverage legal migration for faster economic growth (55% of $1B start-ups in the USA are founded by immigrants)
- rapidly advance technologies such as fusion reactors for energy generation
- embrace global cooperation as no one country can address any one threat (let alone ten) alone
As Roubini concludes and as Kristalina Georgieva (IMF Managing Director) recently said "Buckle Up" ... this is going to be a bumpy ride through a very dark night.
March 12, 2023
I am a huge Nouriel Roubini fanboy and this book did not disappoint. It's the usual Dr.Doom pessimism about mankind's future. The ten megathreats revolve around debt, population growth problems, AI replacing jobs, US-China war and climate change. Each of these threats is terrible on its own, but together they are devastating. Roubini goes through each one of them and explains how it could unfold and how we could be impacted. At the end of the book he presents an optimistic scenario and a pessimistic scenario. I pray that the optimistic one will prevail but I fear the pessimistic one.
November 28, 2023
เป็นเล่มที่ไม่ได้อ่านง่ายเท่าไร แต่ก็เป็นเล่มที่ดีที่ได้อ่าน
เนื่องจากหนังสือต้นฉบับเขียนเมื่อราวๆ ปี2021-2022 หลายเหตุการณ์ก็ได้เกิดขึ้นไปแล้ว เช่น การเพิ่มอัตราดอกเบี้ยของ fed แล้วสร้างผลกระทบเชิงกว้าง (เกิดขึ้นก่อนแล้วที่อเมริกา) คือสถาบันการเงิน ธนาคารบางรายล่มสลายไป หรือการล่มสลายของบริษัทอสังหา evergreen ที่จีน ไปจนถึง stagflation ที่อัตราว่างงานสูง ดอกเบี้ยสูง เงินเฟ้อสูง และยังมีอีกหลายเหตุการณ์ที่ยังไม่ได้เกิดขึ้น เช่น การล่มสลายของบางสกุลเงิน หรือ จุดจบของโลกาภิวัฒน์ (ซึ่งตรงนี้ในเล่มหมายถึง หมดยุคผู้อพยพไปสร้างตัวที่ประเทศที่เจริญ เพราะเหล่าประเทศโลกที่หนึ่งเกลียดชังผู้อพยพ แม้กระทั่งอเมริกาที่มีผู้คนหลากหลาย) และใช่มันยังไม่เกิด แต่หลายอย่างในเล่มก็มีเค้าลางความชิบหายจริงๆ
ซึ่งเนื่องจากนี่เป็นหนังสือ global economics เศรษศฐศาสตร์มหภาค เราว่ามันอ่านยากนิดหน่อยในช่วงต้น เรื่องหนี้สาธารณะ และนโยบายการเงิน คือ ตอนอ่านเราเหมือนจะเข้าใจแต่เอามาย่อยต่อไม่ได้ ก็คือน่าจะไม่ค่อยเข้าใจแหละ แต่เขาเขียนเก่งนะ คือมันมีบางย่อหน้าที่เราไฮไลท์เลยว่าเออ เขาเขียนเปรียบเทียบเก่งทำให้เรื่องยากๆ มันเข้าใจได้ง่ายขึ้น (แต่ยังยากอยู่ดี)
โดยรวมแล้วเราประทับใจเล่มนี้นะ คือมันมีเค้าลางความหายนะตามที่เขาเขียนนั้นแหละ ซึ่งมันอาจจะไม่เกิดขึ้นก็ได้ (ก็อย่าให้มันเกิดเลย) เพราะมนุษย์เรามีความสามารถในการปรับตัวตามเหตุการณ์ และเราอาจจะตระหนักถึงภัยพิบัติและร่วมกันหาทางแก้ได้ (อืมๆ ไม่จริงหรอก ชิบหายแน่นอน) ประเด็นคือ เล่มนี้ไม่ได้บอกวิธีการรับมืออะไรเป็นรูปเป็นร่างนัก มีสั้นๆ ที่บอกว่านักลงทุนควรทำอย่างไร (แล้วถ้าไม่ใช่นักลงทุนมาอ่านละ คนทำธุรกิจธรรมดา พนักงานกินเงินเดือนมาอ่านพี่จะให้เรารับมือกับความชิบหายนี้อย่างไร)
สิ่งที่เราเคืองคือเวลาพูดถึงบิทคอยน์ (แต่อย่างน้อยก็ยังแยก crypto ออกจาก bitcoin) ซึ่งเอาจริงๆ นักเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาคก็ควรพูดแบบนี้แหละ ไม่ใช่มาโปรบิทคอยน์ แต่เวลาอ้างอิงว่ามันแย่ยังไงเนี่ย อ่านแล้วหงุดหงิดที่เป็นข้อมูลที่ไม่อัพเดทและการเปรียบเทียบลอยๆ อย่างบอกว่าบิทคอยน์ใช้พลังงานเยอะ คือไอ้เยอะเนี่ยเยอะแหละ แต่เยอะเมื่อเทียบกับอะไร ได้เทียบกับระบบการเงินแบบเดียวกันมั้ย หรือเทียบการขุดบิทคอยน์กับการใช้ไฟตู้เย็น อย่างที่สองคือเรื่องการบอกว่าการทำธุรกรรมมันช้า ทำได้ไม่กี่ transaction ต่อวินาที คืออันนี้พี่กำลังพูดถึงเรื่องมัน settlement นะ แล้วมันโอนเงินข้ามประเทศได้ การโอนเงินข้ามประเทศแบบแบงค์ทำได้หลาย transaction แน่นอนไม่เถียง แต่มันใช้เวลา settlement กี่โมง? ไม่บ่นละ เดี๋ยวยาว จริงๆ คือ ส่วนที่ไม่ชอบมีแค่นี้เอง
แต่ทั้งเล่มพูดถึงเรื่องเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาคได้ดีมากๆ ย่อยประวัติศาสตร์หนี้อย่างย่นย่อ เข้าใจง่าย และทำให้เข้าใจว่าตอนนี้หนี้มันพุ่งกระฉูดขนาดไหน สร้างความชิบหายแบบเป็นโดมิโน่ได้ไง รวมไปถึงเรื่องการอพยพที่หลายคนเข้าใจว่ามันไม่ดี เกลียดชังผู้อพยพ ก็ทำให้เข้าใจทั้งสองส่วนว่าทำไมคนไม่ชอบ แล้วความจริงเป็นอย่างไร (สามารถอ่านประเด็นนี้เพิ่มเติมได้ใน Good Economics for Hard Times: Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems) และทางออกของเรื่องโลกร้อนมีกี่ทางแล้วตอนนี้ มีความเป็นไปได้มากแค่ไหนในแต่ละทางอย่างย่นย่อ
สรุปแล้ว เป็นอีกเล่มที่เราว่าน่าอ่านเพื่อเข้าใจสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นตอนนี้และอาจจะเกิดขึ้นในอนาคต เราควรมองโลกและอนาคตในแง่ดี แต่ควรเตรียมรับมือกับมันในแง่ที่มันชิบหายที่สุด
เนื่องจากหนังสือต้นฉบับเขียนเมื่อราวๆ ปี2021-2022 หลายเหตุการณ์ก็ได้เกิดขึ้นไปแล้ว เช่น การเพิ่มอัตราดอกเบี้ยของ fed แล้วสร้างผลกระทบเชิงกว้าง (เกิดขึ้นก่อนแล้วที่อเมริกา) คือสถาบันการเงิน ธนาคารบางรายล่มสลายไป หรือการล่มสลายของบริษัทอสังหา evergreen ที่จีน ไปจนถึง stagflation ที่อัตราว่างงานสูง ดอกเบี้ยสูง เงินเฟ้อสูง และยังมีอีกหลายเหตุการณ์ที่ยังไม่ได้เกิดขึ้น เช่น การล่มสลายของบางสกุลเงิน หรือ จุดจบของโลกาภิวัฒน์ (ซึ่งตรงนี้ในเล่มหมายถึง หมดยุคผู้อพยพไปสร้างตัวที่ประเทศที่เจริญ เพราะเหล่าประเทศโลกที่หนึ่งเกลียดชังผู้อพยพ แม้กระทั่งอเมริกาที่มีผู้คนหลากหลาย) และใช่มันยังไม่เกิด แต่หลายอย่างในเล่มก็มีเค้าลางความชิบหายจริงๆ
ซึ่งเนื่องจากนี่เป็นหนังสือ global economics เศรษศฐศาสตร์มหภาค เราว่ามันอ่านยากนิดหน่อยในช่วงต้น เรื่องหนี้สาธารณะ และนโยบายการเงิน คือ ตอนอ่านเราเหมือนจะเข้าใจแต่เอามาย่อยต่อไม่ได้ ก็คือน่าจะไม่ค่อยเข้าใจแหละ แต่เขาเขียนเก่งนะ คือมันมีบางย่อหน้าที่เราไฮไลท์เลยว่าเออ เขาเขียนเปรียบเทียบเก่งทำให้เรื่องยากๆ มันเข้าใจได้ง่ายขึ้น (แต่ยังยากอยู่ดี)
โดยรวมแล้วเราประทับใจเล่มนี้นะ คือมันมีเค้าลางความหายนะตามที่เขาเขียนนั้นแหละ ซึ่งมันอาจจะไม่เกิดขึ้นก็ได้ (ก็อย่าให้มันเกิดเลย) เพราะมนุษย์เรามีความสามารถในการปรับตัวตามเหตุการณ์ และเราอาจจะตระหนักถึงภัยพิบัติและร่วมกันหาทางแก้ได้ (อืมๆ ไม่จริงหรอก ชิบหายแน่นอน) ประเด็นคือ เล่มนี้ไม่ได้บอกวิธีการรับมืออะไรเป็นรูปเป็นร่างนัก มีสั้นๆ ที่บอกว่านักลงทุนควรทำอย่างไร (แล้วถ้าไม่ใช่นักลงทุนมาอ่านละ คนทำธุรกิจธรรมดา พนักงานกินเงินเดือนมาอ่านพี่จะให้เรารับมือกับความชิบหายนี้อย่างไร)
สิ่งที่เราเคืองคือเวลาพูดถึงบิทคอยน์ (แต่อย่างน้อยก็ยังแยก crypto ออกจาก bitcoin) ซึ่งเอาจริงๆ นักเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาคก็ควรพูดแบบนี้แหละ ไม่ใช่มาโปรบิทคอยน์ แต่เวลาอ้างอิงว่ามันแย่ยังไงเนี่ย อ่านแล้วหงุดหงิดที่เป็นข้อมูลที่ไม่อัพเดทและการเปรียบเทียบลอยๆ อย่างบอกว่าบิทคอยน์ใช้พลังงานเยอะ คือไอ้เยอะเนี่ยเยอะแหละ แต่เยอะเมื่อเทียบกับอะไร ได้เทียบกับระบบการเงินแบบเดียวกันมั้ย หรือเทียบการขุดบิทคอยน์กับการใช้ไฟตู้เย็น อย่างที่สองคือเรื่องการบอกว่าการทำธุรกรรมมันช้า ทำได้ไม่กี่ transaction ต่อวินาที คืออันนี้พี่กำลังพูดถึงเรื่องมัน settlement นะ แล้วมันโอนเงินข้ามประเทศได้ การโอนเงินข้ามประเทศแบบแบงค์ทำได้หลาย transaction แน่นอนไม่เถียง แต่มันใช้เวลา settlement กี่โมง? ไม่บ่นละ เดี๋ยวยาว จริงๆ คือ ส่วนที่ไม่ชอบมีแค่นี้เอง
แต่ทั้งเล่มพูดถึงเรื่องเศรษฐศาสตร์มหภาคได้ดีมากๆ ย่อยประวัติศาสตร์หนี้อย่างย่นย่อ เข้าใจง่าย และทำให้เข้าใจว่าตอนนี้หนี้มันพุ่งกระฉูดขนาดไหน สร้างความชิบหายแบบเป็นโดมิโน่ได้ไง รวมไปถึงเรื่องการอพยพที่หลายคนเข้าใจว่ามันไม่ดี เกลียดชังผู้อพยพ ก็ทำให้เข้าใจทั้งสองส่วนว่าทำไมคนไม่ชอบ แล้วความจริงเป็นอย่างไร (สามารถอ่านประเด็นนี้เพิ่มเติมได้ใน Good Economics for Hard Times: Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems) และทางออกของเรื่องโลกร้อนมีกี่ทางแล้วตอนนี้ มีความเป็นไปได้มากแค่ไหนในแต่ละทางอย่างย่นย่อ
สรุปแล้ว เป็นอีกเล่มที่เราว่าน่าอ่านเพื่อเข้าใจสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นตอนนี้และอาจจะเกิดขึ้นในอนาคต เราควรมองโลกและอนาคตในแง่ดี แต่ควรเตรียมรับมือกับมันในแง่ที่มันชิบหายที่สุด
December 29, 2022
Clever package, questionable research. A bit long.
January 7, 2023
There is some truth in this book, but it comes from an extremely Malthusian perspective. There are several areas that are taken as given and ‘settled’, when they are anything but.
There is a very immature writing style that feels like undergrad essays i’ve read in the past. Pages and pages of chronologies and examples listed without framing, insight and sometimes seemingly without any reason at all; nobody needs this anymore, we all have the internet. What we need is the editorial; the perspectives that no one else can provide, and there is very little of that in Megathreats, unfortunately.
There are passages where Roubini is happy mentioning his correct past predictions. These make him come across as if he has a chip on his shoulder whilst also lowering the tone of the book.
I expected something more elevated, engaging and academic. Roubini is a poor writer and a second rate thinker, at least in this book. However, there may be some utility if you’re after some basic grounding in concepts like debt, geopolitics and currencies.
There is a very immature writing style that feels like undergrad essays i’ve read in the past. Pages and pages of chronologies and examples listed without framing, insight and sometimes seemingly without any reason at all; nobody needs this anymore, we all have the internet. What we need is the editorial; the perspectives that no one else can provide, and there is very little of that in Megathreats, unfortunately.
There are passages where Roubini is happy mentioning his correct past predictions. These make him come across as if he has a chip on his shoulder whilst also lowering the tone of the book.
I expected something more elevated, engaging and academic. Roubini is a poor writer and a second rate thinker, at least in this book. However, there may be some utility if you’re after some basic grounding in concepts like debt, geopolitics and currencies.
December 1, 2022
There is a flood of information in this book that fails to become real concrete. The first chapters are stronger as they fall in Roubini’s field of expertise. The latter ones read more like investigative journalism rather than a well structured argument.
November 5, 2022
It's capitalist nonsense, but since capitalism is clearly hell-bent on destroying the world, it's a good enough description of how capitalism will destroy us all.
December 9, 2022
О��, леле, разбирам защо го наричат Doctor Doom, но е и прав, че е по-скоро Doctor Realist, защото всяко едно от нещата, които спомена като потенциална мега заплаха за човечеството, е напълно логична, разумна и началото на повечето от тях са налице.
Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора, да ми се цупят, че съм твърде черногледа. Е, дори аз с моето развинтено въображение, не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini. Книгата е трудно да я оставиш, независимо, че е икономическа книга, просто е твърде интересна, но на моменти ми се налагаше да спра да слушам, защото усещах, че започвам да изпадам в паника от всичко, което обрисува и излага. Тъжният факт е, че е прав, нещата няма да станат по-добре за нас и трябва да се подготвим за много лоши сценарии. А, истината е, че обикновените хора няма какво да направят, за да се подготвят за подобен тип ситуации, а и повечето хора предпочитат да живеят в блажено невежество, за което завиждам, няма да лъжа.
Днес видях в новините, че британското правителство премахва Ring-Fencing Regime, който беше поставен след финансовата криза от 2008 година, с цел да се защитят парите на обикновените хора и банките да рискуват собствените си пари, а не парите на хората. Премахват го и това ясно дава индикация, че няма правителство или управляващ режим в целия свят, който да му пука за хората, освен за собствените им дълбоки джобове. Та, това е просто малък пример как всъщност Roubini е прав в много аспекти, че не изглежда позитивно бъдещето ни, тъй като всички се борим за ресурси и то не колкото да имаме, за да живеем добре, а просто да имаме колкото се може повече, ей така... за спорта.
Книгата наистина си струва да се изслуша/прочете, особено ако човек не живее в България. България трудно изпада в каквито и да е негативни финансови ситуации, тъй като банките ни са вече вампири и като цяло страната е в доста тъжно финансово състояние, но пак е добре човек да има на идея на къде духа световният вятър, защото миналото е доказало, че няма спасение и за нас ако станат военни конфликти. :/
Унищожих си празниците като я изслушах тази книга, но човек е по-добре да знае, отколкото да се чуди в един момент от къде му е дошло всичко. :)
Аз съм песимист по душа и много пъти се е случвало като общувам с хора, да ми се цупят, че съм твърде черногледа. Е, дори аз с моето развинтено въображение, не мога да се сравнявам с Nouriel Roubini. Книгата е трудно да я оставиш, независимо, че е икономическа книга, просто е твърде интересна, но на моменти ми се налагаше да спра да слушам, защото усещах, че започвам да изпадам в паника от всичко, което обрисува и излага. Тъжният факт е, че е прав, нещата няма да станат по-добре за нас и трябва да се подготвим за много лоши сценарии. А, истината е, че обикновените хора няма какво да направят, за да се подготвят за подобен тип ситуации, а и повечето хора предпочитат да живеят в блажено невежество, за което завиждам, няма да лъжа.
Днес видях в новините, че британското правителство премахва Ring-Fencing Regime, който беше поставен след финансовата криза от 2008 година, с цел да се защитят парите на обикновените хора и банките да рискуват собствените си пари, а не парите на хората. Премахват го и това ясно дава индикация, че няма правителство или управляващ режим в целия свят, който да му пука за хората, освен за собствените им дълбоки джобове. Та, това е просто малък пример как всъщност Roubini е прав в много аспекти, че не изглежда позитивно бъдещето ни, тъй като всички се борим за ресурси и то не колкото да имаме, за да живеем добре, а просто да имаме колкото се може повече, ей така... за спорта.
Книгата наистина си струва да се изслуша/прочете, особено ако човек не живее в България. България трудно изпада в каквито и да е негативни финансови ситуации, тъй като банките ни са вече вампири и като цяло страната е в доста тъжно финансово състояние, но пак е добре човек да има на идея на къде духа световният вятър, защото миналото е доказало, че няма спасение и за нас ако станат военни конфликти. :/
Унищожих си празниците като я изслушах тази книга, но човек е по-добре да знае, отколкото да се чуди в един момент от къде му е дошло всичко. :)
June 4, 2023
Resumo do livro:
“…
Quer tenhas ou não tenhas medo,
Mais tarde ou mais cedo tu vais falecer
Nós vamos todos falecer,
(Eu não vou! Olha que vais!)
Patinar, bater as botas.
Eu vou esticar o pernil,
Conviver com as minhocas.
Tu vais fechar a pestana
E fazer para sempre ó-ó.
Nós vamos passar a ser húmus,
Que é uma espécie de cocó.”
Não consigo dar mais do que 3 estrelas. Não porque não acredite nas mega-ameaças tão bem explicadas por Nouriel, mas sim porque acabar este livro foi um massacre. Deprimia ao fim de duas páginas de leitura e a vida ficava sempre mais pesada. Depois deste livro a vontade de agir para evitar ou diminuir estas ameaças está em estado crítico(vou tentar ressuscitar!) porque afinal vamos todos falecer, e com muito sofrimento até ao dia final. Não recomendo, não porque não faça sentido, mas porque senti que oferece muita pouca esperança (ou soluções!) e dá a ideia de que independentemente do que faças, viver não vale a pena. Livro difícil e especialmente preocupante para pessoas já de si ansiosas com o estado do mundo.
Vou agora ler o Hans Rosling para ver se me animo. 🫠
“…
Quer tenhas ou não tenhas medo,
Mais tarde ou mais cedo tu vais falecer
Nós vamos todos falecer,
(Eu não vou! Olha que vais!)
Patinar, bater as botas.
Eu vou esticar o pernil,
Conviver com as minhocas.
Tu vais fechar a pestana
E fazer para sempre ó-ó.
Nós vamos passar a ser húmus,
Que é uma espécie de cocó.”
Não consigo dar mais do que 3 estrelas. Não porque não acredite nas mega-ameaças tão bem explicadas por Nouriel, mas sim porque acabar este livro foi um massacre. Deprimia ao fim de duas páginas de leitura e a vida ficava sempre mais pesada. Depois deste livro a vontade de agir para evitar ou diminuir estas ameaças está em estado crítico(vou tentar ressuscitar!) porque afinal vamos todos falecer, e com muito sofrimento até ao dia final. Não recomendo, não porque não faça sentido, mas porque senti que oferece muita pouca esperança (ou soluções!) e dá a ideia de que independentemente do que faças, viver não vale a pena. Livro difícil e especialmente preocupante para pessoas já de si ansiosas com o estado do mundo.
Vou agora ler o Hans Rosling para ver se me animo. 🫠
December 14, 2022
Wordy
The topic is off course excessively interesting, but the wiring is not very strong. He meanders, and takes a long time to make the same point.
The topic is off course excessively interesting, but the wiring is not very strong. He meanders, and takes a long time to make the same point.
March 11, 2023
Pop Them Balloons!
This was an amazing book that covers a wide range of economic and political concepts that are highly relevant in our current era.
I appreciate the author's approach, which is both well-researched and well-written. In my opinion, this book is a major improvement over similar books, such as Ray Dalio's Principles For Dealing With the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, because it gets so much right when it comes to foreign policy, China, and Russia relations, and other major political items.
What sets this book apart is its accurate predictions and accounts of what is going on in around the world. The author doesn't shy away from touchy subjects and is refreshingly honest and open about them. I found the book's analysis of financial crises, such as the 2008 crisis, and the economics of the war in Russia to be particularly insightful.
The book also provides a great summary of how COVID has changed the financial landscape.
Overall, I highly recommend this to anyone who wants to better understand the complex economic and political challenges facing our world today.
In a way, this book predicted the fall of China/USA relations we have seen lately with the chip sector, spy balloons, wolf warrior deplomacy, and, of course, the scare tactics in the South China Sea. I am very impressed by Roubini's words.
I believe that the author's approach is both engaging and informative, and the book is definitely worth reading.
4.7/5
This was an amazing book that covers a wide range of economic and political concepts that are highly relevant in our current era.
I appreciate the author's approach, which is both well-researched and well-written. In my opinion, this book is a major improvement over similar books, such as Ray Dalio's Principles For Dealing With the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail, because it gets so much right when it comes to foreign policy, China, and Russia relations, and other major political items.
What sets this book apart is its accurate predictions and accounts of what is going on in around the world. The author doesn't shy away from touchy subjects and is refreshingly honest and open about them. I found the book's analysis of financial crises, such as the 2008 crisis, and the economics of the war in Russia to be particularly insightful.
The book also provides a great summary of how COVID has changed the financial landscape.
Overall, I highly recommend this to anyone who wants to better understand the complex economic and political challenges facing our world today.
In a way, this book predicted the fall of China/USA relations we have seen lately with the chip sector, spy balloons, wolf warrior deplomacy, and, of course, the scare tactics in the South China Sea. I am very impressed by Roubini's words.
I believe that the author's approach is both engaging and informative, and the book is definitely worth reading.
4.7/5
January 18, 2023
Hooter: An Op-ed converted into a book on key risks that could lead to the next Financial crisis
Nouriel is racing against time to in a way state the obvious but also consolidate the focus on the types of risk we deal with as a world today that could/would directly impact the financial system. Whether it is war conflict like Russia-Ukraine, the climate change all over or the probability of recurring pandemics are one side of the story. He also looks back at anecdotal history with respect to fiscal policies around the world and how cheap debt has always fueled a economic balloon waiting to burst.
He does put in a reality check that stand alone , each of the risks can be absorbed by society but a combination of them could play havoc with our world. You'd say stating the obvious Mr. Doomsday but as an economist, this book articulates his thoughts and perspectives from his experience in this space. Is there research highlighted in the book for his theories? Nope! and hence I like to call this an extended op-ed on what he thinks are items top of his mind that can precipitate the next financial crisis.
The current layoffs in the Tech industry provide an ominous sign to the near future he foretells. Then again the thing with being consistently pessimistic in a cyclical industry is that you will be right at some point.
Nouriel is racing against time to in a way state the obvious but also consolidate the focus on the types of risk we deal with as a world today that could/would directly impact the financial system. Whether it is war conflict like Russia-Ukraine, the climate change all over or the probability of recurring pandemics are one side of the story. He also looks back at anecdotal history with respect to fiscal policies around the world and how cheap debt has always fueled a economic balloon waiting to burst.
He does put in a reality check that stand alone , each of the risks can be absorbed by society but a combination of them could play havoc with our world. You'd say stating the obvious Mr. Doomsday but as an economist, this book articulates his thoughts and perspectives from his experience in this space. Is there research highlighted in the book for his theories? Nope! and hence I like to call this an extended op-ed on what he thinks are items top of his mind that can precipitate the next financial crisis.
The current layoffs in the Tech industry provide an ominous sign to the near future he foretells. Then again the thing with being consistently pessimistic in a cyclical industry is that you will be right at some point.
February 12, 2023
Can’t remember all the 10 threats but the gist are here. They are all slow moving train wreck that’s about to happen but no one can stop it easily.
1. Government debt is advanced economies are unsustainable. The main problem are entitlement benefits. Social security has no money in and will collapse once the number of retirees outnumber the workers. However asking people to retire later is untenable, as is cutting benefits. The only way is to raise taxes especially for the rich but they have many ways to escape, including migration. -> I think immigration would be the least painful solution, and asking people to work longer… but any solution would be tough.
2. Artificial intelligence is going to put all of us out of work. Roubini is pessimistic that new work will happen. -> however I think we are actually having a shortage of workers. Just remember the ATM effect on banks: fewer tellers are needed to dispense cash and it’s more convenient so more cash is saved in banks and more bank branches are opened and the tellers got other jobs to do, providing better service.
3. Geopolitics, especially a new cold/hot war with China, is causing decoupling. -> but trade has increased between the 2 amid all these tension. We can’t even make a washing machine without imports…
4. Stagflation as unemployment and inflation increase. Years of loose monetary policy and the war in Ukraine is going to cause inflation and unemployment. -> yet this is not what we’re seeing; we have inflation and low unemployment. In fact the whole world is short of workers post Covid as demand increased but not supply of workers.
5. Climate change as lots of promises are made but no actions taken. The developing world is not going to stop urbanisation just to keep the work slightly cooler. Massive disruption to coastal cities will result in refugees and mass migration. Green technologies are not keeping up with the energy demand. -> this is so true, we need to get ready for water-world and floating cities.
It’s important to read Roubini so we know where the threats are. Fortunately in general problems are somewhat mitigated when they become more severe, because then the political will for sacrifice will become stronger.
1. Government debt is advanced economies are unsustainable. The main problem are entitlement benefits. Social security has no money in and will collapse once the number of retirees outnumber the workers. However asking people to retire later is untenable, as is cutting benefits. The only way is to raise taxes especially for the rich but they have many ways to escape, including migration. -> I think immigration would be the least painful solution, and asking people to work longer… but any solution would be tough.
2. Artificial intelligence is going to put all of us out of work. Roubini is pessimistic that new work will happen. -> however I think we are actually having a shortage of workers. Just remember the ATM effect on banks: fewer tellers are needed to dispense cash and it’s more convenient so more cash is saved in banks and more bank branches are opened and the tellers got other jobs to do, providing better service.
3. Geopolitics, especially a new cold/hot war with China, is causing decoupling. -> but trade has increased between the 2 amid all these tension. We can’t even make a washing machine without imports…
4. Stagflation as unemployment and inflation increase. Years of loose monetary policy and the war in Ukraine is going to cause inflation and unemployment. -> yet this is not what we’re seeing; we have inflation and low unemployment. In fact the whole world is short of workers post Covid as demand increased but not supply of workers.
5. Climate change as lots of promises are made but no actions taken. The developing world is not going to stop urbanisation just to keep the work slightly cooler. Massive disruption to coastal cities will result in refugees and mass migration. Green technologies are not keeping up with the energy demand. -> this is so true, we need to get ready for water-world and floating cities.
It’s important to read Roubini so we know where the threats are. Fortunately in general problems are somewhat mitigated when they become more severe, because then the political will for sacrifice will become stronger.
June 9, 2024
Pretty good packaging of the current challenges facing the world. There is some reference to previous works by the author and quoting other authors, much, but if you are looking for a good synopsis this book is for you.
Read
March 25, 2023I was disappointed: 'How to survive the megathreats' is not at all discussed in the book...
And the 'megathreats' read a little weakish...
And the 'megathreats' read a little weakish...
July 26, 2023
I doubt anyone is looking for an excuse to up their anxiety about the future right now, but its good to be prepared.
Read
January 18, 2023MegaThreats (2022) delves into the ten most pressing potential threats to humanity’s future. The author examines the evidence and potential consequences for each threat, questioning whether we are doing enough to prevent or prepare for them.
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics. He has served in the White House and the U.S. Treasury. He lives in New York City.
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Recognize today’s most serious global threats and the dangers that lie ahead.
Life is full of risks. From saying, “I do,” to placing your last 50 bucks all on red – or from changing lanes on the highway to dropping an extra chili into the recipe. Many people are risk-averse, and believe it’s wisest to stay in their comfort zones. But here’s the thing about risks: we get better at dealing with them with each one we take. And with the state of things now, it’s no better time than the present to prepare for bigger and bigger risks.
Today’s biggest threats go beyond traditional geopolitical rivalries. We face inflation, which can decimate savings; debt, which causes economic hardship; trade wars, which result in job losses; and climate change, which has the potential to devastate living conditions. According to author Nouriel Roubini, ignoring these issues will turn them into Megathreats – overlapping, interconnected risks that could destroy civilization. Pretty serious, huh? Well, they don’t call him “Doctor Doom” for nothing.
Roubini is clear: as global citizens, we must be aware of the risks and ramifications of these conditions. So how can we survive them? By taking action now. Time won’t help us face the Megathreats. But despite their dangers, Megathreats provide opportunities. They might force us to innovate, create new ways of doing things, and unite as a global society. But only if we shift our risk perception and recognize what is happening. So, there’s no time to waste– let’s get started. In this book, we’ll discuss some of the worst Megathreats and why they occur.
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The world is in the grip of a debt supercycle.
Are you ready for some more bad news? We are already in the midst of the worst debt crisis in recent history. Global debt exceeds $250 trillion, and central banks are routinely rescuing financially strapped countries. Yes, Global economic growth is starting to wheeze. So how on earth did we get so out of control?
Well, Governments tend to rely on outdated, irresponsible economic options, resulting in unforeseen and obscene debt levels. The United States is far more in debt today than it was, say, during the Great Depression. A recession did not have the same impact on growth back then. Today, it’s a different story. National debt soars annually due to quantitative easing and other monetary policies that rely heavily on the government issuing more debt. It seems policymakers prefer reckless spending to fiscal discipline; governments are addicted to debt while ignoring the long-term consequences.
Likewise, we average folk are pretty much the same. We are also addicted to risk. We take on loans, credit cards, and payment plans and ignore the worst-case scenario. Roubini says wealthy countries with abundant resources have allowed risk to run wild. Regrettably, leaders and policymakers remain resistant to progressive change. And it’s not just the West. Increased risk of debt default in developed countries results in higher borrowing costs and a reduced willingness to lend. As a result, developing economies that were already struggling face an even greater challenge in the years ahead. Each Megathreat seems driven by risk-taking and focusing on the short-term.
In recent years, private debt has raced ahead of public debt, reaching new highs. So now, both public and private debt threaten economic stability. Furthermore, since the economies of so many countries are connected, the problem is getting worse. When there is a financial shock in one region, it can quickly affect other areas. So the likelihood of a global debt crisis shoots up. As governments worldwide try to fix their economies, central banks react by loosening monetary policy to boost growth. But arghh, they’ve made money too cheap for too long. The result? A terrifying boom-and-bust cycle, similar to stagflation in the 1970s. In other words, high inflation and the possibility of a recession are happening at the same time. The difference between now and the 1970s is that governments are stuck in a rut. They keep making the same mistakes over and over again.
Topping this off, global income growth is slowing as countries, corporations, banks, and households owe more than they can repay. All of these issues spell disaster. A more progressive world requires more manageable debt levels.
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Expect technological disruptions.
It’s the stuff of science fiction movies: a world where machines are so sophisticated they can do our work for us, freeing us to pursue more leisurely activities. Yet, as artificial intelligence (AI) leaders caution, this future may be closer than we think. Indeed, AI-powered automation is already on the rise, and machines are expected to take over a growing proportion of professions in the coming years.
In fact, AI could eventually render entire professions obsolete, displacing some people while benefiting the richest few. Roubini is sure we are entering a new era of economic and social disruption that has wide-reaching implications for us all. He is not alone in this. Many industries are already aware that AI can perform tasks better than humans.
More and more of our traditional jobs are being replaced by machines that can do them better, faster, and cheaper. So what does this mean for the future of employment? Roubini warns of long-term job displacement and inequality. He says automation will most benefit those who can afford to invest in new systems. As a result, the wealth gap will widen all the more. Sorry, but all signs point to AI-driven pay cuts.
One of the founders of DeepMind, Mustafa Suleyman, says that the jobs that are most likely to vanish are the ones that have narrow, simple tasks. And we are not just talking about robots replacing factory workers. Soon, it’ll be hard to tell the difference between the text, images, and sounds made by AI and those made by humans. As a result, many white-collar jobs demanding high skill levels will become obsolete.
So what should we do? Well, we could start training for occupations that will be more difficult for machines to replace, such as working in child care, plumbing, or electrical work. Alternatively, we could sit back and hope the next generation is generous enough to give us all a universal basic income so we can lounge around and watch Netflix all day. Either way, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
To avoid the severe impacts of AI displacement, we must begin planning and managing these changes before they become too drastic. Given these alarming forecasts, governments and organizations need to start preparing themselves.
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Climate change will cause political, economic, and social turmoil.
t’s not just about the money, folks. Take climate change, for example. As the world heats up, nations are struggling to keep their cool. The global population is increasing, but the water supply is shrinking. Planting seasons are becoming less predictable due to more frequent dry spells and floods. As a result, the land becomes barren, and agriculture becomes untrustworthy. The megathreat of climate change is already upon us. And it’s likely to get worse.
Changes in long-term temperature and weather patterns will cause mass migration. Dealing with the largest influx of refugees puts massive pressure on Europe. Climate change has created the perfect storm of political, economic, and social upheaval. So far, the response has been woefully inadequate, and the situation will only worsen. If we don’t take action to mitigate the effects of climate change, the cost of adaptation will be astronomical. Developing countries get hit the hardest because they lack the resources to deal with climate change independently. We must tax carbon and cease subsidizing fossil fuels, but market-based remedies alone will not address the problem.
Pandemics become more probable as the environment declines. In recent years, there has been a rise in lethal infections such as SARS, avian flu, swine flu, Ebola, and of course, COVID-19. While various causes may contribute to the spread of these diseases, one theory claims that global warming is to blame. According to Harvard’s Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment, climate change causes animal habitats to collapse, creating ideal conditions for transmitting diseases from animals to humans.
If left unchecked, climate change will cause irreversible damage to our environment, economy, and way of life. That is why we must take action now. But unfortunately, governments are not investing enough in green and renewable energy to keep us safe. Instead, they are dozing at the wheel and driving us off a cliff.
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Aging populations strain government budgets.
You own a company, and it’s experiencing tough times. You need to make some quick decisions to stay on top. One of those choices is to cut the workforce to keep costs down. Sounds sensible, but there is a knock-on effect. For starters, a company can only reduce its workforce so much before it starts to impact productivity and quality of service. Second, it strains the remaining employees, who are expected to do more with less. Lastly, laid-off workers spend less, reducing demand, which can lead to more layoffs.
Does this strike you as a Megathreat? Maybe not for the average business. Nevertheless, many workers in advanced economies are approaching retirement age. Great for those looking forward to some well-deserved rest. Not so much for the economy’s future. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that losing the workforce in peaked economies won’t help.
You see, the aging population is putting a strain on government budgets. As more baby boomers retire, fewer young workers replace them. This demographic shift results in an increasing number of adults relying on government benefits. While these programs are essential for supporting retirees, they are rapidly becoming unaffordable. As more workers become eligible for the safety net, the cash required to fund it grows. Even affluent nations face mounting pressure to fulfill long-term health-care and pension obligations. According to a recent Citigroup report, the wealthiest countries have unfunded or underfunded pension liabilities of $78 trillion. The economy will stall as taxes rise and social programs are cut.
So what’s a government to do? Fire up our old friend Quantitative Easing? A tempting solution but one that will lead to more debt. Whatever happens, all plans to cut debts involve breaking promises made to powerful interest groups. This should not deter us from creative thinking.
Economists like Dani Rodrik argue that the effects of an aging population can be mitigated by encouraging immigration. He argues that wealthy nations should embrace free trade instead of populism. Such ideas run counter to the current mood in the West. Despite the difficulties we face, there are solutions. We must, however, be realistic about our challenges and accept that not every solution will be popular. The consequences will be far worse if we don’t act now.
---
Central banks need reform.
People often think of the economy as a complicated machine. It might be more helpful to think of it as a human body. The central bank is the brain, making sure everything runs properly. The commercial banks, which pump money through the veins, would be the heart. The businesses and customers who fuel growth are the muscles. If one of these parts fails, it will cause problems. Brain damage is potentially fatal.
In recent years central banks have taken on additional roles and responsibilities in response to economic conditions. As we have discussed, they have flooded advanced economies with unprecedented liquidity through quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this policy has had mixed results: while it has helped spur economic growth, it has raised concerns about asset bubbles. Critics believe central banks are abandoning their monetary stability mandate, while supporters argue that they are simply responding to changing conditions.
Foreign and domestic security policies are also a major headache for central banks. Likewise, as the United States continues to pile on debt, there is growing concern that foreign countries will stop accepting the dollar as a store of value. The People’s Bank of China appears ready to replace the dollar with its own currency. To keep the dollar as the world’s reserve, the United States must maintain a level head. If they don’t, the Western economy will likely collapse again, with little to save it.
One thing seems certain: central banks need major reform. Their technological systems are outdated, and their policies create inequality. However, there is a hint of evolution as they consider their most dramatic innovation, a central bank digital currency. But positive change comes with significant risk—decoupling to a digital currency could still cause collapse. Whatever decisions the central banks make, we know the status quo isn’t working.
---
Climate change, zoonotic diseases, technological disruption, population decline, inequality, and debt—the list of challenges we face is daunting. Can we stop these Megathreats? Roubini says no. However, we sent a man to the moon, eradicated polio, and created the Internet. So, what is preventing us from dealing with these dangers?
Part of the problem is that our current systems aren’t designed to incentivize long-term thinking. Instead, we are overly concerned with the short-term and frequently make decisions based on incomplete, biased information. If we can overcome these obstacles, there may be a way out. We have come a long way in the last 75 years, but if we don’t start working together, we could lose everything. Megathreats require mega solutions.
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics. He has served in the White House and the U.S. Treasury. He lives in New York City.
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Recognize today’s most serious global threats and the dangers that lie ahead.
Life is full of risks. From saying, “I do,” to placing your last 50 bucks all on red – or from changing lanes on the highway to dropping an extra chili into the recipe. Many people are risk-averse, and believe it’s wisest to stay in their comfort zones. But here’s the thing about risks: we get better at dealing with them with each one we take. And with the state of things now, it’s no better time than the present to prepare for bigger and bigger risks.
Today’s biggest threats go beyond traditional geopolitical rivalries. We face inflation, which can decimate savings; debt, which causes economic hardship; trade wars, which result in job losses; and climate change, which has the potential to devastate living conditions. According to author Nouriel Roubini, ignoring these issues will turn them into Megathreats – overlapping, interconnected risks that could destroy civilization. Pretty serious, huh? Well, they don’t call him “Doctor Doom” for nothing.
Roubini is clear: as global citizens, we must be aware of the risks and ramifications of these conditions. So how can we survive them? By taking action now. Time won’t help us face the Megathreats. But despite their dangers, Megathreats provide opportunities. They might force us to innovate, create new ways of doing things, and unite as a global society. But only if we shift our risk perception and recognize what is happening. So, there’s no time to waste– let’s get started. In this book, we’ll discuss some of the worst Megathreats and why they occur.
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The world is in the grip of a debt supercycle.
Are you ready for some more bad news? We are already in the midst of the worst debt crisis in recent history. Global debt exceeds $250 trillion, and central banks are routinely rescuing financially strapped countries. Yes, Global economic growth is starting to wheeze. So how on earth did we get so out of control?
Well, Governments tend to rely on outdated, irresponsible economic options, resulting in unforeseen and obscene debt levels. The United States is far more in debt today than it was, say, during the Great Depression. A recession did not have the same impact on growth back then. Today, it’s a different story. National debt soars annually due to quantitative easing and other monetary policies that rely heavily on the government issuing more debt. It seems policymakers prefer reckless spending to fiscal discipline; governments are addicted to debt while ignoring the long-term consequences.
Likewise, we average folk are pretty much the same. We are also addicted to risk. We take on loans, credit cards, and payment plans and ignore the worst-case scenario. Roubini says wealthy countries with abundant resources have allowed risk to run wild. Regrettably, leaders and policymakers remain resistant to progressive change. And it’s not just the West. Increased risk of debt default in developed countries results in higher borrowing costs and a reduced willingness to lend. As a result, developing economies that were already struggling face an even greater challenge in the years ahead. Each Megathreat seems driven by risk-taking and focusing on the short-term.
In recent years, private debt has raced ahead of public debt, reaching new highs. So now, both public and private debt threaten economic stability. Furthermore, since the economies of so many countries are connected, the problem is getting worse. When there is a financial shock in one region, it can quickly affect other areas. So the likelihood of a global debt crisis shoots up. As governments worldwide try to fix their economies, central banks react by loosening monetary policy to boost growth. But arghh, they’ve made money too cheap for too long. The result? A terrifying boom-and-bust cycle, similar to stagflation in the 1970s. In other words, high inflation and the possibility of a recession are happening at the same time. The difference between now and the 1970s is that governments are stuck in a rut. They keep making the same mistakes over and over again.
Topping this off, global income growth is slowing as countries, corporations, banks, and households owe more than they can repay. All of these issues spell disaster. A more progressive world requires more manageable debt levels.
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Expect technological disruptions.
It’s the stuff of science fiction movies: a world where machines are so sophisticated they can do our work for us, freeing us to pursue more leisurely activities. Yet, as artificial intelligence (AI) leaders caution, this future may be closer than we think. Indeed, AI-powered automation is already on the rise, and machines are expected to take over a growing proportion of professions in the coming years.
In fact, AI could eventually render entire professions obsolete, displacing some people while benefiting the richest few. Roubini is sure we are entering a new era of economic and social disruption that has wide-reaching implications for us all. He is not alone in this. Many industries are already aware that AI can perform tasks better than humans.
More and more of our traditional jobs are being replaced by machines that can do them better, faster, and cheaper. So what does this mean for the future of employment? Roubini warns of long-term job displacement and inequality. He says automation will most benefit those who can afford to invest in new systems. As a result, the wealth gap will widen all the more. Sorry, but all signs point to AI-driven pay cuts.
One of the founders of DeepMind, Mustafa Suleyman, says that the jobs that are most likely to vanish are the ones that have narrow, simple tasks. And we are not just talking about robots replacing factory workers. Soon, it’ll be hard to tell the difference between the text, images, and sounds made by AI and those made by humans. As a result, many white-collar jobs demanding high skill levels will become obsolete.
So what should we do? Well, we could start training for occupations that will be more difficult for machines to replace, such as working in child care, plumbing, or electrical work. Alternatively, we could sit back and hope the next generation is generous enough to give us all a universal basic income so we can lounge around and watch Netflix all day. Either way, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
To avoid the severe impacts of AI displacement, we must begin planning and managing these changes before they become too drastic. Given these alarming forecasts, governments and organizations need to start preparing themselves.
---
Climate change will cause political, economic, and social turmoil.
t’s not just about the money, folks. Take climate change, for example. As the world heats up, nations are struggling to keep their cool. The global population is increasing, but the water supply is shrinking. Planting seasons are becoming less predictable due to more frequent dry spells and floods. As a result, the land becomes barren, and agriculture becomes untrustworthy. The megathreat of climate change is already upon us. And it’s likely to get worse.
Changes in long-term temperature and weather patterns will cause mass migration. Dealing with the largest influx of refugees puts massive pressure on Europe. Climate change has created the perfect storm of political, economic, and social upheaval. So far, the response has been woefully inadequate, and the situation will only worsen. If we don’t take action to mitigate the effects of climate change, the cost of adaptation will be astronomical. Developing countries get hit the hardest because they lack the resources to deal with climate change independently. We must tax carbon and cease subsidizing fossil fuels, but market-based remedies alone will not address the problem.
Pandemics become more probable as the environment declines. In recent years, there has been a rise in lethal infections such as SARS, avian flu, swine flu, Ebola, and of course, COVID-19. While various causes may contribute to the spread of these diseases, one theory claims that global warming is to blame. According to Harvard’s Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment, climate change causes animal habitats to collapse, creating ideal conditions for transmitting diseases from animals to humans.
If left unchecked, climate change will cause irreversible damage to our environment, economy, and way of life. That is why we must take action now. But unfortunately, governments are not investing enough in green and renewable energy to keep us safe. Instead, they are dozing at the wheel and driving us off a cliff.
---
Aging populations strain government budgets.
You own a company, and it’s experiencing tough times. You need to make some quick decisions to stay on top. One of those choices is to cut the workforce to keep costs down. Sounds sensible, but there is a knock-on effect. For starters, a company can only reduce its workforce so much before it starts to impact productivity and quality of service. Second, it strains the remaining employees, who are expected to do more with less. Lastly, laid-off workers spend less, reducing demand, which can lead to more layoffs.
Does this strike you as a Megathreat? Maybe not for the average business. Nevertheless, many workers in advanced economies are approaching retirement age. Great for those looking forward to some well-deserved rest. Not so much for the economy’s future. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that losing the workforce in peaked economies won’t help.
You see, the aging population is putting a strain on government budgets. As more baby boomers retire, fewer young workers replace them. This demographic shift results in an increasing number of adults relying on government benefits. While these programs are essential for supporting retirees, they are rapidly becoming unaffordable. As more workers become eligible for the safety net, the cash required to fund it grows. Even affluent nations face mounting pressure to fulfill long-term health-care and pension obligations. According to a recent Citigroup report, the wealthiest countries have unfunded or underfunded pension liabilities of $78 trillion. The economy will stall as taxes rise and social programs are cut.
So what’s a government to do? Fire up our old friend Quantitative Easing? A tempting solution but one that will lead to more debt. Whatever happens, all plans to cut debts involve breaking promises made to powerful interest groups. This should not deter us from creative thinking.
Economists like Dani Rodrik argue that the effects of an aging population can be mitigated by encouraging immigration. He argues that wealthy nations should embrace free trade instead of populism. Such ideas run counter to the current mood in the West. Despite the difficulties we face, there are solutions. We must, however, be realistic about our challenges and accept that not every solution will be popular. The consequences will be far worse if we don’t act now.
---
Central banks need reform.
People often think of the economy as a complicated machine. It might be more helpful to think of it as a human body. The central bank is the brain, making sure everything runs properly. The commercial banks, which pump money through the veins, would be the heart. The businesses and customers who fuel growth are the muscles. If one of these parts fails, it will cause problems. Brain damage is potentially fatal.
In recent years central banks have taken on additional roles and responsibilities in response to economic conditions. As we have discussed, they have flooded advanced economies with unprecedented liquidity through quantitative easing. Unfortunately, this policy has had mixed results: while it has helped spur economic growth, it has raised concerns about asset bubbles. Critics believe central banks are abandoning their monetary stability mandate, while supporters argue that they are simply responding to changing conditions.
Foreign and domestic security policies are also a major headache for central banks. Likewise, as the United States continues to pile on debt, there is growing concern that foreign countries will stop accepting the dollar as a store of value. The People’s Bank of China appears ready to replace the dollar with its own currency. To keep the dollar as the world’s reserve, the United States must maintain a level head. If they don’t, the Western economy will likely collapse again, with little to save it.
One thing seems certain: central banks need major reform. Their technological systems are outdated, and their policies create inequality. However, there is a hint of evolution as they consider their most dramatic innovation, a central bank digital currency. But positive change comes with significant risk—decoupling to a digital currency could still cause collapse. Whatever decisions the central banks make, we know the status quo isn’t working.
---
Climate change, zoonotic diseases, technological disruption, population decline, inequality, and debt—the list of challenges we face is daunting. Can we stop these Megathreats? Roubini says no. However, we sent a man to the moon, eradicated polio, and created the Internet. So, what is preventing us from dealing with these dangers?
Part of the problem is that our current systems aren’t designed to incentivize long-term thinking. Instead, we are overly concerned with the short-term and frequently make decisions based on incomplete, biased information. If we can overcome these obstacles, there may be a way out. We have come a long way in the last 75 years, but if we don’t start working together, we could lose everything. Megathreats require mega solutions.
December 17, 2022
Interesting thoughts and take. Does it worry me a bit? Yes. But I am still hopeful that we can avoid some of the major megathreats.
November 5, 2022
Pembaca mungkin akan tertipu oleh Chapter 12 tentang Utopia. Namun, sejak awal paragraf, Roubini sudah mengkode dengan lagu Jimi Hendrix “All Along The Watchtower”. Bagi yang paham makna lagu ini, tertipu adalah hal mustahil. Nyatanya, algoritma Roubini tidak berubah tentang masa depan. Distopia adalah his mother tongue. Distopia selalu lebih masuk akal baginya. Distopia adalah common sense untuk kita bertahan hidup. Dan membaca common sense 320 halaman hanya perlu waktu singkat.
Abad dua puluh ditandai dengan residu-residu goncangan peradaban. Perang Dunia Pertama, flu Spanish (siapa Menteri yang hobi bilang unprecedented?), hiperinflasi, deglobalisasi, lalu menuju 1929 Depresi Besar (welcome aboard Keynesian), perang dagang, lubang hitam utang, bangkitnya populisme, lalu lahirnya demagog-demagog otoritarian fasis yang hiper gairahnya dalam caplok mencaplok wilayah, baik di Eropa (Jerman, Italia, Spanyol) maupun di Asia (Jepang) hingga menjadi kesurupan massal yang mengantar ke gerbang Perang Dunia Kedua. Siklus ini, menurut Roubini (sama seperti buku-bukunya sebelumnya) adalah alarm yang kita sendiri yang atur, dan seharusnya kita sendiri yang memutuskan untuk tetap tidur, sedikit bangun namun memencet tombol “snooze” lalu tidur kembali, atau totalitas matikan alarm dan bangun memutus ledakan.
Sayangnya, nada dering alarm ini, semakin kini semakin merdu dan mendayu tak seperti delapan dekade lalu yang setiap orang mudah teriritasi. Kini, nada dering ini seperti bunyi jangkrik di malam hari, atau kodok di musim hujan—berisik namun asik, membuat kita hanyut dan lebih lelap. Analogi ini percis serupa dengan realita, sebab kini meski kesenjangan ekonomi interindividu dan interregional semakin lebar, namun gejalanya dirasakan tak seketika. Lagipula, lembaga keuangan kita semakin ter-leverage meski telah di remedy dengan koyo cabe merek ‘macroprudential policy’ (panasnya diawal saja, kemudian dingin dan jika dicabut sakit). Lagipula, banyak negeri makin gemar berlomba-lomba dalam kebaikan (sebaik mungkin mempersenjatai diri dengan apapun yang lebih dahsyat daripada nuklir) entah menakuti hantu apa, namun jelas kebatinannya adalah more fear and asimetri kuasa.
Perang Dingin Jilid Kedua pun direplikasi, dan kini semakin menggoda banyak negeri revisionis kekuasaan untuk menentukan blok posisi di Kurusetra Baru. Teknologi kini diperjuangkan, namun bukan untuk kompetisi ke Bulan atau kemudahan produksi, melainkan kemudahan untuk menjadi otoritarian penuh atas bukan sekedar teritori, melainkan juga sensori, memori, dan batang otak. Kita terlahir teritorial, dan terus dididik untuk demikian, dan kini kita memuja teknologi tak seperti Winston mencurigai teknologi di 1984 Orwell. Orkestrasi aksi iklim bukan menjadi revolusi rejuvenasi gaya hidup asah, asih, dan asuh terhadap alam, melainkan menjadi bisnis baru bagi kroni penguasa-pengusaha lama. Merekalah para promotor 7 dosa mematikan yang mengaku pahlawan. Maka itu, common sense Roubini memilih arah tujuan distopia yang penuh alienasi, yang mana alienasi menjadi bahan bakar bagi munculnya Nazi baru, Fasis baru, dan Militerisme baru di dunia yang akhir goyang pendulumnya adalah ekuilibrium Nash.
Abad dua puluh ditandai dengan residu-residu goncangan peradaban. Perang Dunia Pertama, flu Spanish (siapa Menteri yang hobi bilang unprecedented?), hiperinflasi, deglobalisasi, lalu menuju 1929 Depresi Besar (welcome aboard Keynesian), perang dagang, lubang hitam utang, bangkitnya populisme, lalu lahirnya demagog-demagog otoritarian fasis yang hiper gairahnya dalam caplok mencaplok wilayah, baik di Eropa (Jerman, Italia, Spanyol) maupun di Asia (Jepang) hingga menjadi kesurupan massal yang mengantar ke gerbang Perang Dunia Kedua. Siklus ini, menurut Roubini (sama seperti buku-bukunya sebelumnya) adalah alarm yang kita sendiri yang atur, dan seharusnya kita sendiri yang memutuskan untuk tetap tidur, sedikit bangun namun memencet tombol “snooze” lalu tidur kembali, atau totalitas matikan alarm dan bangun memutus ledakan.
Sayangnya, nada dering alarm ini, semakin kini semakin merdu dan mendayu tak seperti delapan dekade lalu yang setiap orang mudah teriritasi. Kini, nada dering ini seperti bunyi jangkrik di malam hari, atau kodok di musim hujan—berisik namun asik, membuat kita hanyut dan lebih lelap. Analogi ini percis serupa dengan realita, sebab kini meski kesenjangan ekonomi interindividu dan interregional semakin lebar, namun gejalanya dirasakan tak seketika. Lagipula, lembaga keuangan kita semakin ter-leverage meski telah di remedy dengan koyo cabe merek ‘macroprudential policy’ (panasnya diawal saja, kemudian dingin dan jika dicabut sakit). Lagipula, banyak negeri makin gemar berlomba-lomba dalam kebaikan (sebaik mungkin mempersenjatai diri dengan apapun yang lebih dahsyat daripada nuklir) entah menakuti hantu apa, namun jelas kebatinannya adalah more fear and asimetri kuasa.
Perang Dingin Jilid Kedua pun direplikasi, dan kini semakin menggoda banyak negeri revisionis kekuasaan untuk menentukan blok posisi di Kurusetra Baru. Teknologi kini diperjuangkan, namun bukan untuk kompetisi ke Bulan atau kemudahan produksi, melainkan kemudahan untuk menjadi otoritarian penuh atas bukan sekedar teritori, melainkan juga sensori, memori, dan batang otak. Kita terlahir teritorial, dan terus dididik untuk demikian, dan kini kita memuja teknologi tak seperti Winston mencurigai teknologi di 1984 Orwell. Orkestrasi aksi iklim bukan menjadi revolusi rejuvenasi gaya hidup asah, asih, dan asuh terhadap alam, melainkan menjadi bisnis baru bagi kroni penguasa-pengusaha lama. Merekalah para promotor 7 dosa mematikan yang mengaku pahlawan. Maka itu, common sense Roubini memilih arah tujuan distopia yang penuh alienasi, yang mana alienasi menjadi bahan bakar bagi munculnya Nazi baru, Fasis baru, dan Militerisme baru di dunia yang akhir goyang pendulumnya adalah ekuilibrium Nash.
April 17, 2023
Some really interesting themes and good to see these particular threats compared and contrasted however, the writing was laboured and some of the points were repetitive. There’s a lot of selective quotes from articles to support his POV but very little to challenge it except the penultimate chapter where he decides he’s probably right and we are all doomed (he is known as Dr Doom and plays heavily on having predicted the 2008 economic crisis but doesn’t mention any predictions he’s made that didn’t come true…) but it would be interesting to think about other possible outcomes, I think.
August 28, 2023
I have finished reading “Megathreats: Our Ten Biggest Threats, and how to Survive them” by Nouriel Roubini.
The summary argument of this book is that the global economy faces several so-called Megathreats to it’s stability. Each of these have different probabilities of actually occuring, different times frames for occuring and different yields for potential disuption. These Megathreats approach us amid a background of governments running out of tools with which to address successive economic shocks they will likely cause as they emerge.
The author lays out the case that in most countries, especially in those with advanced economies, Government debts have now reached levels where an unexpected debt crisis may be potentially catastrophic. The interconnected global economy also raises the prospect of international contagion resulting in a global debt crisis caused by just a few economies succumbing.
These areas for concern are accompanied by the prospect of the modern scourge of inflation which is back in force and may yet turn into “Stagflation” (a horrid combination of inflation and unemployment). This book was written in 2022 so in many ways this warning seems worryingly prescient. The author argues that Government’s natural instincts to bail out sectors of the economy or add liquidity to the system may well make those problems worse. Furthermore, the use of more complex methods and theories such as “Quantitive Easing” and Modern Monetary Policy in the author’s opinion is becoming more risky, since the side effects (especially in the long term) of them are becoming harder to understand.
In addition to the above economic threats the author also discusses the rise of Artificial Intelligence, the so-called New Cold War between the US and China and Climate Change. The former discussion is one of the most detailed that I have seen and handily signposted many books that solely focus on this issue. The author does well to drive home the point that theoretically there are few jobs that AI cannot eventually replace, dispelling myths that it is purely about automating logistics in economies. However, I did feel that the author did not seriously consider potential benefits of AI enough (even though some were reflected on).
The New Cold War chapter for myself didn’t really reveal much more than I already knew about the diplomatic and economic squabbles between the US and China. But I did appreciate that the author talked about the big costs involved in so-called “friend shoring” businesses formerly in China’s sphere, uncoupling parts of Western nation’s economies from their’s. It was only towards the end of this book when the author seemed to make a show of support for softening the US Government’s staff and pursue more joint ventures with the Chinese Government. From my perspective the author spent a little too long explaining the serious implications of the US/Chinese rivalry.
The Penultimate chapter outlines the worst of what could happen if humanity were hit by these successive Megathreats. The Chapter is quite aptly titled “Dark Destiny”, which thankfully avoided a lawsuit with the Terminator franchise by not calling it “Dark Fate”. To say this chapter is bleak is an understatement. It is so dark it almost writes it’s own Doom Metal album. This chapter is somewhat balanced by a following chapter that lays out a more “utopian” way forward. To be honest I was a lot more interested in that and I was quite disappointed to have only a few decent ideas thrown out, but not elaborated, then reach the end of the said chapter. To be honest I felt like the “Dark Destiny” chapter went over a lot of familiar ground and seemed a bit indulgent in terms of dark drama and imagery. I can just turn on the news if I need any more!
This book in many ways was for me about the Irish joke about Irish diplomacy; it takes you to hell but makes you pay for the journey. I would say that this is an enjoyable book insofar as it is informative and doesn’t sugar coat anything (if anything it could give nightmares to the impressionable. On the plus side, the author lays his cases out for the threats in a way that is meticulous and well researched. I would say that early on, it can feel a bit bogged down in economic jargon, but then again I fully understand that given his economist background old habits may die hard. However, for the most part non-economic jargon terms are either kept to a minimum or clearly explained. There are some genuinely good ideas for mitigating or tackling some of the Megathreats that the author shares, but I felt that at times this was done too sparingly to not distract form the dark tones of the book. The idea of using Universal Basic Income (UBI) to help mitigate the effects of AI-related unemployment and even using AI to largely automate the financial services had huge implications, but I felt were given too little discussion. Just imagine! Replacing investment bankers, stock traders and actuaries with AI when they thought it was the Blue Collar workers who would get the chop! Finding ways of bringing about less pay inequality was acknowledged as a big problem but was kind of shrugged at in the course of discussing possible remedies.
Overall, I feel like this was a solidly researched and mainly well-reasoned book. But I felt that in it’s efforts to give a serious impression to readers it emphasized the disastrous and short changed discussions about how to avoid disaster. I also felt the author was too often overly US-centric in how he was explaining Global threats However, I appreciate the author’s honesty in signposting the reader to other books that explore some of the Megathreats more deeply. Perhaps next time he writes a book, he will think a bit more about some of us who want to know what we are up against AND want to help bring about the solutions to address them.
Post Script thoughts
I feel that the potential positive applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are too often given short shrift. Instead of being the great undermining human workers, could AI potentially be their biggest helpers? AI could help short-staffed hospitals instead of replacing human staff. Is there a dark nativist undertone to our issues with AI generating Art, because it is not generating it from an organism-based intelligence? Or is there a part of us that hopes that genuine Art is the sole preserve of Humans? Instead of helping in fighting wars could AI make them unnecessary by coming up with political solutions? Perhaps a mutually agreeable settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is beyond the capacity and patience of human minds but not for AI minds? The author does raise an excellent point though that unemployment or underemployment of humans caused by AI may be a great justification for experimenting with Universal Basic Income Schemes (UBI). I wonder if this may be the path to the utopian future that Star Trek charted, like in First Contact where Captain Picard tells a World War 3 survivor that “the acquisition of wealth is no longer the great driving forces in our lives”, instead exploration and self-improvement are the main goals of peoples lives. I imagine that and to be honest, I find it quite beautiful.
The summary argument of this book is that the global economy faces several so-called Megathreats to it’s stability. Each of these have different probabilities of actually occuring, different times frames for occuring and different yields for potential disuption. These Megathreats approach us amid a background of governments running out of tools with which to address successive economic shocks they will likely cause as they emerge.
The author lays out the case that in most countries, especially in those with advanced economies, Government debts have now reached levels where an unexpected debt crisis may be potentially catastrophic. The interconnected global economy also raises the prospect of international contagion resulting in a global debt crisis caused by just a few economies succumbing.
These areas for concern are accompanied by the prospect of the modern scourge of inflation which is back in force and may yet turn into “Stagflation” (a horrid combination of inflation and unemployment). This book was written in 2022 so in many ways this warning seems worryingly prescient. The author argues that Government’s natural instincts to bail out sectors of the economy or add liquidity to the system may well make those problems worse. Furthermore, the use of more complex methods and theories such as “Quantitive Easing” and Modern Monetary Policy in the author’s opinion is becoming more risky, since the side effects (especially in the long term) of them are becoming harder to understand.
In addition to the above economic threats the author also discusses the rise of Artificial Intelligence, the so-called New Cold War between the US and China and Climate Change. The former discussion is one of the most detailed that I have seen and handily signposted many books that solely focus on this issue. The author does well to drive home the point that theoretically there are few jobs that AI cannot eventually replace, dispelling myths that it is purely about automating logistics in economies. However, I did feel that the author did not seriously consider potential benefits of AI enough (even though some were reflected on).
The New Cold War chapter for myself didn’t really reveal much more than I already knew about the diplomatic and economic squabbles between the US and China. But I did appreciate that the author talked about the big costs involved in so-called “friend shoring” businesses formerly in China’s sphere, uncoupling parts of Western nation’s economies from their’s. It was only towards the end of this book when the author seemed to make a show of support for softening the US Government’s staff and pursue more joint ventures with the Chinese Government. From my perspective the author spent a little too long explaining the serious implications of the US/Chinese rivalry.
The Penultimate chapter outlines the worst of what could happen if humanity were hit by these successive Megathreats. The Chapter is quite aptly titled “Dark Destiny”, which thankfully avoided a lawsuit with the Terminator franchise by not calling it “Dark Fate”. To say this chapter is bleak is an understatement. It is so dark it almost writes it’s own Doom Metal album. This chapter is somewhat balanced by a following chapter that lays out a more “utopian” way forward. To be honest I was a lot more interested in that and I was quite disappointed to have only a few decent ideas thrown out, but not elaborated, then reach the end of the said chapter. To be honest I felt like the “Dark Destiny” chapter went over a lot of familiar ground and seemed a bit indulgent in terms of dark drama and imagery. I can just turn on the news if I need any more!
This book in many ways was for me about the Irish joke about Irish diplomacy; it takes you to hell but makes you pay for the journey. I would say that this is an enjoyable book insofar as it is informative and doesn’t sugar coat anything (if anything it could give nightmares to the impressionable. On the plus side, the author lays his cases out for the threats in a way that is meticulous and well researched. I would say that early on, it can feel a bit bogged down in economic jargon, but then again I fully understand that given his economist background old habits may die hard. However, for the most part non-economic jargon terms are either kept to a minimum or clearly explained. There are some genuinely good ideas for mitigating or tackling some of the Megathreats that the author shares, but I felt that at times this was done too sparingly to not distract form the dark tones of the book. The idea of using Universal Basic Income (UBI) to help mitigate the effects of AI-related unemployment and even using AI to largely automate the financial services had huge implications, but I felt were given too little discussion. Just imagine! Replacing investment bankers, stock traders and actuaries with AI when they thought it was the Blue Collar workers who would get the chop! Finding ways of bringing about less pay inequality was acknowledged as a big problem but was kind of shrugged at in the course of discussing possible remedies.
Overall, I feel like this was a solidly researched and mainly well-reasoned book. But I felt that in it’s efforts to give a serious impression to readers it emphasized the disastrous and short changed discussions about how to avoid disaster. I also felt the author was too often overly US-centric in how he was explaining Global threats However, I appreciate the author’s honesty in signposting the reader to other books that explore some of the Megathreats more deeply. Perhaps next time he writes a book, he will think a bit more about some of us who want to know what we are up against AND want to help bring about the solutions to address them.
Post Script thoughts
I feel that the potential positive applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are too often given short shrift. Instead of being the great undermining human workers, could AI potentially be their biggest helpers? AI could help short-staffed hospitals instead of replacing human staff. Is there a dark nativist undertone to our issues with AI generating Art, because it is not generating it from an organism-based intelligence? Or is there a part of us that hopes that genuine Art is the sole preserve of Humans? Instead of helping in fighting wars could AI make them unnecessary by coming up with political solutions? Perhaps a mutually agreeable settlement for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is beyond the capacity and patience of human minds but not for AI minds? The author does raise an excellent point though that unemployment or underemployment of humans caused by AI may be a great justification for experimenting with Universal Basic Income Schemes (UBI). I wonder if this may be the path to the utopian future that Star Trek charted, like in First Contact where Captain Picard tells a World War 3 survivor that “the acquisition of wealth is no longer the great driving forces in our lives”, instead exploration and self-improvement are the main goals of peoples lives. I imagine that and to be honest, I find it quite beautiful.
February 21, 2023
MegaThreats fails on multiple counts. Let's ignore that the count to ten is artificial when the first six risks are so intertwined that they could have been counted as one or two without the fine separation. We will return to these six, the best part of the book, later.
The last four non-economic sections are particularly weak, full of oft-heard remarks, and without anything original. The book fully lives up to its reputation for offering no tangible ways out of its doomsday scenarios, which is fine given its well-publicized intentions. It is still not just hopelessly damaging but also misleading. The low point of the book is when the author tries to translate such dire predictions for humanity into an investment strategy in financial markets; it is almost like he has nothing to suggest on how to avert the worst in real life, but he can help you protect your savings!
The economic sections of the first half are where the author is on the home turf. Financial market participants have long given up discussing the risks posed by excessive fiscal profligacy. These risks are exacerbated by monetary adventures, worsening inequality, demographics, populist pressures, and financial market reflexivities. The author is one of many who have read their economic history well to discuss these risks. He excels in his discussions of debt, while his prose is weakest when he begins discussing almost randomly selected historic episodes to support his fears. Rather than repeating descriptions of specific market or economic collapses of the past, the author could have done so much more to separate distinct types of risks, their potential severities, and what could trigger them.
Excessive debt can lead to cyclical downturns, but these are not dangerous if the leverage allows an economy to be on a much better structural path. No one enjoys market or economic downturns. However, if recessions like 2001-03 or 2008 are the price of leading the world in innovation or market return, most long-term theorists would take them any day over any other form of economic setup. The same argument could be made about China's choices so far. That said, if the arguments are for longer, structural decline like that experienced by Japan since the late 1980s or like the US in the 1930s/70s, the text and the logic should have been different.
Those in the habit of constantly evaluating history comprehensively miss how much the world of policymaking has changed, and hence why some of the past warning signs have not worked for years. Think of it this way: a thousand years ago, a voyager planning a journey seven seas across had to plan theoretically months in advance. With all the real-time information, a modern traveler hardly goes to the proverbial drawing board or prepares by the book, focusing instead on avoiding the nearest hazards and traffic while moving toward the destination.
In the world of scant information, a policymaker had to use the support of theoretical frameworks to manage an economy. The modern world allows current policymakers to abandon the rigid straightjacket of textbook theories and steer practically based on data points they see. Economic critics, almost always belonging to various theoretical schools, find framework-less policymaking abhorrent. Not only would each one find some policies inconsistent with their favorite theoretical formulas, but they also struggle to fathom long-term effects and even consistent near-term rationales. Today's policymakers appear capricious and short-sighted to the devotees of Keynes, Friedman, or any other similar great economic thinkers.
For nearly forty years, and notwithstanding many market and economic cycles, markets and economies have avoided prolonged downturns in most countries with proactive, data-driven monetary policymakers. This is not to say that an insidious downturn is not around the corner, but those predicting it need to make their case differently than merely signaling excessive levels in some economic parameters or drawing historical analogies. Given the author's reputation and past work, he must have a lot on why now and how worse it will be, but he missed them entirely in this work. That's all the worse for the book.
April 25, 2023
Nouriel Roubini is a boring, repetitive know-it-all economist doom-monger – my god, is he the ultimate dinner-party seating-arrangements challenge? And he’s that pessimist forecaster who can’t help reminding his readers how often his economic predictions have come true in the past, most notably his pre-2007 warnings on the impending Global Financial Crisis. (I suspect he’s forgotten a few that weren’t so on the money.) So his latest book, Megathreats, is, as you might imagine, not exactly a laugh-a-minute. In short, the world is up against ten enormous threats – megathreats, if you will – and if any one of them plays out as he predicts, we are economically, and thus generally, f*cked.
Helpfully Roubini has invented a cute monicker for the impending economic meltdown that’s just around the corner: the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. Which is about the only detail I can recall from part 1 of the book, “Debt, Demographics and Dangerous Policies”. The best I can do to summarise the rest of it is say that he takes all your sneaking concerns about current global debt, demographics and economic policy-making and dials them up to 11 in a yawning we’re-screwed-and-I-told-you-so ramble that would have been far better served compressed – with some coherent editing – into a readable Substack article. A number of the finance-related threats Roubini identifies have unavoidable content overlap, and so could have been better conveyed (and thought out) in the same threat, in the process eliminating annoying content repetition and making life easier for the reader. At one point he outlines eleven “potential global negative supply shocks”, many of which seem to describe his ten Megathreats.
Meanwhile, he glosses over two relatively obvious major threats: another pandemic and the small matter of a nuclear war, which is very much back on the agenda these days. (As an economist, his bias is obviously towards financial threats, but come on.) And, perhaps not unsurprisingly, his catastrophic certainty that some form of doom is waiting for us just around the corner – look, there it is! – becomes rather annoying, counter-productive even, with hints of either Dunning-Kruger overconfidence or a more cynical taste for melodrama to get readers talking. “Expect many dark days, my friends,” he writes…
Of course, to my layman’s perspective, much of what Roubini has to say seems to make sense, hence my interest in the book. He’s got a lot of valid points to make, as there is a strong argument that humanity is, indeed, on a precipice of sorts. For instance, he makes it clear that the solutions for one threat might create further problems for another; for example, generating more debt to solve climate change. Another: both liberals and conservatives are to blame; e.g. Trump and Biden ruined the US deficit.
So here are two recommendations.
Recommendation 1: this should, of course, all be an extended essay – perhaps 5,000 or even 10,000 words. Indeed, the book’s two concluding chapters would be a good place to start. They rehash much of the material that has preceded it – at rather a lot of pain to the reader – and even offer some genuine page-turning momentum when Roubini recommends investing advice for our doomed near future (beware stocks, long-term bonds and real estate investments in climate-prone areas).
Recommendation 2: get a co-author, or co-authors, who can offer similar expert insight into non-economic areas. Roubini has written with political analyst Ian Bremmer in the past, and this book is crying out for some real geopolitical insight and an assessment on the state of global nuclear deterrence, for example. And perhaps a pandemic expert might offer insight into what we have or haven’t learnt from Covid, and what will happen if an exponentially worse outbreak kicks off in the next decade.
You know what I find megathreatening? Economics writers without responsible editors.
Helpfully Roubini has invented a cute monicker for the impending economic meltdown that’s just around the corner: the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. Which is about the only detail I can recall from part 1 of the book, “Debt, Demographics and Dangerous Policies”. The best I can do to summarise the rest of it is say that he takes all your sneaking concerns about current global debt, demographics and economic policy-making and dials them up to 11 in a yawning we’re-screwed-and-I-told-you-so ramble that would have been far better served compressed – with some coherent editing – into a readable Substack article. A number of the finance-related threats Roubini identifies have unavoidable content overlap, and so could have been better conveyed (and thought out) in the same threat, in the process eliminating annoying content repetition and making life easier for the reader. At one point he outlines eleven “potential global negative supply shocks”, many of which seem to describe his ten Megathreats.
Meanwhile, he glosses over two relatively obvious major threats: another pandemic and the small matter of a nuclear war, which is very much back on the agenda these days. (As an economist, his bias is obviously towards financial threats, but come on.) And, perhaps not unsurprisingly, his catastrophic certainty that some form of doom is waiting for us just around the corner – look, there it is! – becomes rather annoying, counter-productive even, with hints of either Dunning-Kruger overconfidence or a more cynical taste for melodrama to get readers talking. “Expect many dark days, my friends,” he writes…
Of course, to my layman’s perspective, much of what Roubini has to say seems to make sense, hence my interest in the book. He’s got a lot of valid points to make, as there is a strong argument that humanity is, indeed, on a precipice of sorts. For instance, he makes it clear that the solutions for one threat might create further problems for another; for example, generating more debt to solve climate change. Another: both liberals and conservatives are to blame; e.g. Trump and Biden ruined the US deficit.
So here are two recommendations.
Recommendation 1: this should, of course, all be an extended essay – perhaps 5,000 or even 10,000 words. Indeed, the book’s two concluding chapters would be a good place to start. They rehash much of the material that has preceded it – at rather a lot of pain to the reader – and even offer some genuine page-turning momentum when Roubini recommends investing advice for our doomed near future (beware stocks, long-term bonds and real estate investments in climate-prone areas).
Recommendation 2: get a co-author, or co-authors, who can offer similar expert insight into non-economic areas. Roubini has written with political analyst Ian Bremmer in the past, and this book is crying out for some real geopolitical insight and an assessment on the state of global nuclear deterrence, for example. And perhaps a pandemic expert might offer insight into what we have or haven’t learnt from Covid, and what will happen if an exponentially worse outbreak kicks off in the next decade.
You know what I find megathreatening? Economics writers without responsible editors.
August 31, 2023
XXXXX
DR. DOOM STRIKES AGAIN
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"In this book, I want to draw attention to the biggest threats we face on our planet, whether they are slow movng or not, whether they will hit us very soon, or a bit later. I call them "megathreats," which I define as severe problems that could cause vast damage and misery and cannot be solved quickly or easily...
I wrote this book because I believe we are facing ten [megathreats] of such immense scale and urgency that we need to look ahead with clear vision and do what it takes to prevent them from destroying us."
The above quote (in italics) comes from this incredibly well-written book by Nouriel Roubini. He is called "Dr. Doom" because he pedicted the 2008 financial cash. Roubini is Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. He has served in the White House and the U.S. Treasury.
This book analyses the ten most plausible threats to humanity's future. The author examines the evidence and potential consequences for each megathreat, questioning whether we are doing enough to prevent or prepare for them.
In this book's first part, Roubini analyses debt, demographic, and dangerous policy megathreats while in the second part, he examines financial, trade, geopoltical, techological, and environmental megathreats that are hurtling towards us.
There is a third part to this book where Roubini asks the following question: "Can this [megathreat] disaster be averted?" Roubini gives us a dystopian answer (in one chapter) and then a utopian answer (in another chapter) to this question. Personally, I found the author's dystopian answer the most fascinating and...scary.
Finally, I did find some minor errors in this book. One of these errors occurs when he calls the late Stephen Hawking a "mathematician." Hawking was actually a theoretical physicist and perhaps one of the greatest scientific minds to have existed.
In conclusion, this book is a wake-up call for humanity. It cuts to the real problems faced by humanity. It is dark, but I also found it to be brilliant.
XXXXX
(2022; prologue; 3 parts or 12 chapters; epilogue; main narrative 275 pages; acknowledgments; notes; index; about the author)
XXXXX
DR. DOOM STRIKES AGAIN
XXXXX
"In this book, I want to draw attention to the biggest threats we face on our planet, whether they are slow movng or not, whether they will hit us very soon, or a bit later. I call them "megathreats," which I define as severe problems that could cause vast damage and misery and cannot be solved quickly or easily...
I wrote this book because I believe we are facing ten [megathreats] of such immense scale and urgency that we need to look ahead with clear vision and do what it takes to prevent them from destroying us."
The above quote (in italics) comes from this incredibly well-written book by Nouriel Roubini. He is called "Dr. Doom" because he pedicted the 2008 financial cash. Roubini is Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. He has served in the White House and the U.S. Treasury.
This book analyses the ten most plausible threats to humanity's future. The author examines the evidence and potential consequences for each megathreat, questioning whether we are doing enough to prevent or prepare for them.
In this book's first part, Roubini analyses debt, demographic, and dangerous policy megathreats while in the second part, he examines financial, trade, geopoltical, techological, and environmental megathreats that are hurtling towards us.
There is a third part to this book where Roubini asks the following question: "Can this [megathreat] disaster be averted?" Roubini gives us a dystopian answer (in one chapter) and then a utopian answer (in another chapter) to this question. Personally, I found the author's dystopian answer the most fascinating and...scary.
Finally, I did find some minor errors in this book. One of these errors occurs when he calls the late Stephen Hawking a "mathematician." Hawking was actually a theoretical physicist and perhaps one of the greatest scientific minds to have existed.
In conclusion, this book is a wake-up call for humanity. It cuts to the real problems faced by humanity. It is dark, but I also found it to be brilliant.
XXXXX
(2022; prologue; 3 parts or 12 chapters; epilogue; main narrative 275 pages; acknowledgments; notes; index; about the author)
XXXXX
July 26, 2024
First and foremost, keep away from this book if you don’t want a shot of anxiety. The book dives into economical, geopolitical, environmental threats that humanity will face in the next couple of decades, and the author Nouriel Roubini doesn’t mince words.
The first half of the book talks about an impending massive debt crisis coupled with stagflation and demographic challenges in advanced economies, as well as potential currency meltdowns, deglobalization and financial stability. On these topics that were purely or mostly financial or economical, the author is flawless. However, the book can be quite technical for those not well-versed in macroeconomics, as the author frequently uses jargon like "quantitative easing," "inflation," and "liquidity." Despite this, Roubini does a fantastic job of providing the historical context needed to explain his prognoses.
However, the quality drops when Roubini discusses non-financial subjects like the AI threat, and climate change. These sections feel mediocre and lackluster, especially compared to his exceptional analysis in the first half of the book. The chapter on AI and the section on cryptocurrency, as part of the discussion on currency meltdowns, highlight the author’s limitations in discussing tech. These sections often feel like he is merely parroting existing information, referencing various articles, books, and personalities without adding his own perspective. There are barely any significant takeaways, and it seemed like a missed opportunity to deeply explore the economical impact of the all-powerful AI that can do all jobs, on an economy that barely has any jobs left.
Roubini concludes by exploring two outcomes: a dystopia where many of the megathreats converge and a potential utopia where things improve but still have room for betterment. The dystopian take feels incohesive. And while the utopian vision is nice, Roubini quickly dismisses it in the epilogue, suggesting that the dystopian outcome is more likely. This leaves a bad taste, especially as that’s the final takeaway.
Overall, it’s a decent book, until Roubini ventures into about AI or climate change, where it rehashes familiar ideas. The first half, while insightful, is a bit too technical to recommend to a general audience.
The first half of the book talks about an impending massive debt crisis coupled with stagflation and demographic challenges in advanced economies, as well as potential currency meltdowns, deglobalization and financial stability. On these topics that were purely or mostly financial or economical, the author is flawless. However, the book can be quite technical for those not well-versed in macroeconomics, as the author frequently uses jargon like "quantitative easing," "inflation," and "liquidity." Despite this, Roubini does a fantastic job of providing the historical context needed to explain his prognoses.
However, the quality drops when Roubini discusses non-financial subjects like the AI threat, and climate change. These sections feel mediocre and lackluster, especially compared to his exceptional analysis in the first half of the book. The chapter on AI and the section on cryptocurrency, as part of the discussion on currency meltdowns, highlight the author’s limitations in discussing tech. These sections often feel like he is merely parroting existing information, referencing various articles, books, and personalities without adding his own perspective. There are barely any significant takeaways, and it seemed like a missed opportunity to deeply explore the economical impact of the all-powerful AI that can do all jobs, on an economy that barely has any jobs left.
Roubini concludes by exploring two outcomes: a dystopia where many of the megathreats converge and a potential utopia where things improve but still have room for betterment. The dystopian take feels incohesive. And while the utopian vision is nice, Roubini quickly dismisses it in the epilogue, suggesting that the dystopian outcome is more likely. This leaves a bad taste, especially as that’s the final takeaway.
Overall, it’s a decent book, until Roubini ventures into about AI or climate change, where it rehashes familiar ideas. The first half, while insightful, is a bit too technical to recommend to a general audience.
November 1, 2023
O autor diz na contracapa de “Mega-Ameaças” que não nos quer assustar, mas assusta, embora, verdade seja dita, não devia, porque o que escreve não devia ser novidade para a maioria dos leitores.
“Mega-Ameaças”, apesar do titulo parecer exagerado, é um livro sério, objetivo, fundamentado, de um autor reputado e com histórico de acerto em previsões no passado (previu a crise imobiliária de 2008 e a Grande Crise Financeira).
De uma forma muito objetiva o autor traça-nos um cenário negro, mas muito realista, sobre as grandes ameaças que pendem sobre as nossas cabeças desde as alterações climáticas à dívida pública passando pela da demografia. Sustentando cada uma das suas afirmações com dados concretos o autor leva-nos a uma viagem assustadora pelas “doenças” do nosso mundo. Uma espécie de TAC à humanidade onde o prognóstico é reservado e nada animador já que são muitas as doenças e em vários casos elas juntam forças ao mesmo tempo.
Para um pai de dois filhos pequenos não posso deixar de sentir medo do futuro, desde logo porque reconheço como muito plausível o pior cenário (o distópico) identificado pelo autor. Em boa verdade, para nos conseguirmos levantar de manhã e não meter a cabeça na areia como as avestruzes, temos de ir acreditando num cenário menos gravoso (o utópico identificado pelo autor), mas não consigo evitar que o meu pensamento me transporte para uma realidade em somos um carro desgovernado a caminho do precipício, sabendo que ele na está, mas esperando que algum milagre aconteça sem que tenhamos de travar.
Este é mais um livro que provavelmente não vai ser lido, ou vai ser ignorado pelos que mais o deveriam ter em conta. Quando aos comuns mortais, resta-nos fazer a parte que nos toca para evitar o pior, na ténue esperança que os dias negros referidos pelo autor sejam de facto um exagero.
Para quem possa estar desse lado a ler estas palavras fica a nota: é um livro muito importante para conhecer e preparar o futuro que aí vem. Obrigatório. Não deixem de ler.
“Mega-Ameaças”, apesar do titulo parecer exagerado, é um livro sério, objetivo, fundamentado, de um autor reputado e com histórico de acerto em previsões no passado (previu a crise imobiliária de 2008 e a Grande Crise Financeira).
De uma forma muito objetiva o autor traça-nos um cenário negro, mas muito realista, sobre as grandes ameaças que pendem sobre as nossas cabeças desde as alterações climáticas à dívida pública passando pela da demografia. Sustentando cada uma das suas afirmações com dados concretos o autor leva-nos a uma viagem assustadora pelas “doenças” do nosso mundo. Uma espécie de TAC à humanidade onde o prognóstico é reservado e nada animador já que são muitas as doenças e em vários casos elas juntam forças ao mesmo tempo.
Para um pai de dois filhos pequenos não posso deixar de sentir medo do futuro, desde logo porque reconheço como muito plausível o pior cenário (o distópico) identificado pelo autor. Em boa verdade, para nos conseguirmos levantar de manhã e não meter a cabeça na areia como as avestruzes, temos de ir acreditando num cenário menos gravoso (o utópico identificado pelo autor), mas não consigo evitar que o meu pensamento me transporte para uma realidade em somos um carro desgovernado a caminho do precipício, sabendo que ele na está, mas esperando que algum milagre aconteça sem que tenhamos de travar.
Este é mais um livro que provavelmente não vai ser lido, ou vai ser ignorado pelos que mais o deveriam ter em conta. Quando aos comuns mortais, resta-nos fazer a parte que nos toca para evitar o pior, na ténue esperança que os dias negros referidos pelo autor sejam de facto um exagero.
Para quem possa estar desse lado a ler estas palavras fica a nota: é um livro muito importante para conhecer e preparar o futuro que aí vem. Obrigatório. Não deixem de ler.
June 8, 2023
A Sobering Gaze into the Looming Future
I find myself nearly at a loss for words to adequately articulate the profound impact that "Megathreats" by Nouriel Roubini has had on my perception of the world and its future. This book is a panoramic horror movie of sorts, the terrifying part being that it's not based on fiction, but on the impending realities that humanity could face.
Roubini's astute analysis and well-researched insights on each of the 'megathreats' is a testament to his prowess as an economist and a visionary. His lucid writing style bridges the gap between academia and lay readership, making this monumental work a compelling read for anyone keen to understand the trajectory of our global civilization.
"Megathreats" manages to compress the essence of perhaps ten other books into one, each tackling a separate global risk. But this is not a mere compilation, it is a synthesis of knowledge that links these threats in a coherent narrative. Each chapter unveils a facet of the global landscape, like pulling back curtains on a panoramic view of challenges that we must overcome to ensure our future.
As a side note, it was interesting to discover that the author and I share the same birthplace. This coincidence created an odd sense of connection, as if the urgent message of this book was personally aimed at me, echoing in the streets of our shared hometown.
In conclusion, "Megathreats" is an intellectual tour de force, a wake-up call to the world, and a testament to Roubini's unrivaled ability to synthesize complex ideas. I highly recommend this book to those who dare to confront the stark realities of the future head-on, and perhaps, gain the insights necessary to alter the course. After all, the knowledge of a threat is the first step towards neutralizing it.
I find myself nearly at a loss for words to adequately articulate the profound impact that "Megathreats" by Nouriel Roubini has had on my perception of the world and its future. This book is a panoramic horror movie of sorts, the terrifying part being that it's not based on fiction, but on the impending realities that humanity could face.
Roubini's astute analysis and well-researched insights on each of the 'megathreats' is a testament to his prowess as an economist and a visionary. His lucid writing style bridges the gap between academia and lay readership, making this monumental work a compelling read for anyone keen to understand the trajectory of our global civilization.
"Megathreats" manages to compress the essence of perhaps ten other books into one, each tackling a separate global risk. But this is not a mere compilation, it is a synthesis of knowledge that links these threats in a coherent narrative. Each chapter unveils a facet of the global landscape, like pulling back curtains on a panoramic view of challenges that we must overcome to ensure our future.
As a side note, it was interesting to discover that the author and I share the same birthplace. This coincidence created an odd sense of connection, as if the urgent message of this book was personally aimed at me, echoing in the streets of our shared hometown.
In conclusion, "Megathreats" is an intellectual tour de force, a wake-up call to the world, and a testament to Roubini's unrivaled ability to synthesize complex ideas. I highly recommend this book to those who dare to confront the stark realities of the future head-on, and perhaps, gain the insights necessary to alter the course. After all, the knowledge of a threat is the first step towards neutralizing it.
January 15, 2025
Roubini’s MegaThreats isn’t just a wake-up call; it’s an indictment of humanity’s obsession with short-term fixes over systemic resilience. While many readers might find solace in his proposed solutions, the book’s true power lies in its unflinching portrayal of humanity as its own worst enemy. It’s not just about pandemics, climate change, or economic instability—it’s about the hubris that permeates modern policymaking. Roubini argues that we are not merely on the brink of disaster; we are, in many ways, architects of it.
What makes MegaThreats disruptive is how it reframes issues often discussed in isolation—debt, technology, aging populations, climate crises—into a web of interconnected vulnerabilities. Yet, one might argue that Roubini misses the mark in underlining the human capacity for adaptability and innovation. The book’s relentless pessimism risks overshadowing the ingenuity that has historically pulled us back from the precipice.
Roubini’s critique of central banks, for instance, strikes a nerve: cheap money and quantitative easing are portrayed as fiscal heroin, keeping economies alive while deepening systemic addiction. But here’s the controversial twist: are central banks the villains, or are they merely a symptom of a deeper failure in political will and public accountability?
Ultimately, MegaThreats is a mirror for a society in denial. It forces readers to grapple with uncomfortable truths, but it also leaves an unsettling question: Are we doomed by our flaws, or is this book merely the latest cry of a Cassandra figure whose warnings we’re destined to ignore? It’s a hauntingly powerful read, not because it offers answers, but because it compels us to question the answers we think we already have.
What makes MegaThreats disruptive is how it reframes issues often discussed in isolation—debt, technology, aging populations, climate crises—into a web of interconnected vulnerabilities. Yet, one might argue that Roubini misses the mark in underlining the human capacity for adaptability and innovation. The book’s relentless pessimism risks overshadowing the ingenuity that has historically pulled us back from the precipice.
Roubini’s critique of central banks, for instance, strikes a nerve: cheap money and quantitative easing are portrayed as fiscal heroin, keeping economies alive while deepening systemic addiction. But here’s the controversial twist: are central banks the villains, or are they merely a symptom of a deeper failure in political will and public accountability?
Ultimately, MegaThreats is a mirror for a society in denial. It forces readers to grapple with uncomfortable truths, but it also leaves an unsettling question: Are we doomed by our flaws, or is this book merely the latest cry of a Cassandra figure whose warnings we’re destined to ignore? It’s a hauntingly powerful read, not because it offers answers, but because it compels us to question the answers we think we already have.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
October 18, 2025
I went into ‘Megathreats’ already familiar with many of the core issues (including climate change, geopolitics, aging, technology, bubbles, etc.), but what was helpful was the way Roubini frames them against a macro-financial backdrop (leverage, stagflation, and the lack of fiscal or monetary dry powder). Not only are all our threats building simultaneously, but they amplify one another.
A lot has happened in the 2-3 years since the book came out, and while financial markets are still rallying there’s no real reason to think any of the threats have been averted. The geopolitical chapter stands out as particularly prescient — even if, ironically, the great fracturing has not been caused by China but by the US; and the notion of a much enlarged NATO now seems quaint.
The conclusion is simple: the threats are unequivocal; resolving them would require global coordination; as this is unlikely (today even more so than at the time of writing) we’re headed towards the ugliest of Nash equilibria. Diversify any money into commodities, cold-climate real estate and startups (as the high risk of failure is priced in here, but not in the broader market) and hold on for a bumpy ride into a dystopian future.
What’s not to love? First, I hold onto a bit more hope for positive surprises and wildcards — as worried as Roubini is about AI causing unemployment, he doesn’t seem to believe much in the upsides (productivity, disinflation, etc.). Second, the book feels uneven and shallow. I almost sensed his eagerness to be first to call the next meltdown — with a laundry list of things that could go wrong.
Overall, a useful overview, but not particularly deeply researched or especially novel for the more anxiously inclined. 3.5 stars.
A lot has happened in the 2-3 years since the book came out, and while financial markets are still rallying there’s no real reason to think any of the threats have been averted. The geopolitical chapter stands out as particularly prescient — even if, ironically, the great fracturing has not been caused by China but by the US; and the notion of a much enlarged NATO now seems quaint.
The conclusion is simple: the threats are unequivocal; resolving them would require global coordination; as this is unlikely (today even more so than at the time of writing) we’re headed towards the ugliest of Nash equilibria. Diversify any money into commodities, cold-climate real estate and startups (as the high risk of failure is priced in here, but not in the broader market) and hold on for a bumpy ride into a dystopian future.
What’s not to love? First, I hold onto a bit more hope for positive surprises and wildcards — as worried as Roubini is about AI causing unemployment, he doesn’t seem to believe much in the upsides (productivity, disinflation, etc.). Second, the book feels uneven and shallow. I almost sensed his eagerness to be first to call the next meltdown — with a laundry list of things that could go wrong.
Overall, a useful overview, but not particularly deeply researched or especially novel for the more anxiously inclined. 3.5 stars.
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