Making Sense of a United Ireland: Should it happen? How might it happen?

by Brendan O'Leary

'Should be required reading for everyone - including unionists - who are interested in and concerned about the fate of this island' Dublin Review of Books

'Compelling' Financial Times

Will Ireland really reunite?

A century ago the resolution to Ireland’s long struggle for independence was a settlement that saw six of its northern counties remain in the United Kingdom while the other twenty-six formed the new Republic of Ireland. Since partition the unification of the two parts of the island has seemed impossible, particularly because of the bloody legacy of past conflict.

However, by 2030, if not sooner, demographic and electoral advantages of Ulster unionists, who wish to remain part of the UK, will be over. And in the light of Brexit, the rising popularity of the Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin, political developments both sides of the border, and within Great Britain, Irish unification referendums will become increasingly likely. Yet even those who want these to happen are not prepared.

Making Sense of a United Ireland is a landmark exploration of this most contentious of issues. Distinguished political scientist Brendan O'Leary - a global expert on divided places, who has been profoundly engaged with the Irish question for nearly four decades - argues that the time to consider the future of the island of Ireland is now.

'The first comprehensive manual of Irish unification' Irish Times


‘Several books have been written about this subject . . . for sheer intellectual firepower O’Leary wins first prize’ Business Post

'A tour de force' Globe and Mail

'A must-read for anyone who lives in Northern Ireland and thinks seriously about its future. [O'Leary has] thought through the implications of possible unity so deeply it would be foolish for anyone who seeks it or opposes it to ignore his book' Cathal Mac Coille

'Impressively researched and well-argued … detailed and readable' Irish Independent

'Brilliant' Brian Feeney, Irish News
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'Highly readable, stylishly written, and essential' Irish Central

Genres: Ireland, Politics, Nonfiction, History, Audiobook

362 pages, Kindle Edition

Published September 1, 2022

Reviews

[Eoghan O'Brien · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really enjoyed this. A serious and comprehensive view on the considerations and models for a future United Ireland. It really highlighted to me how far off governments and Irish political parties in the south are in their thinking and preparation for a future referendum.

I did feel it read a little bit too academic at times.

Essential reading for anyone interested in engaging with the topic (which should be everyone :) )

[Monica · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading for anyone interested in Ireland’s political future!! Rather than arguing for or against the idea of a United Ireland, O’Leary argues that unification is reasonably inevitable and instead makes a strong case for starting preparations and planning now to avoid brexit-style referendum blunders down the line.

[Ciaran McGuiggan]

Bit too academic for me but definitely in depth and has made for some very interesting conversations about what a new Ireland might look like.

[Cian Davis · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fascinating 🤔

[Killian · Rating 4 out of 5]

A hugely detailed analysis of all the issues surrounding the idea of a United Ireland. Should be required reading for politicians north and south

[Mary Ellen · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book does not argue for a united Ireland, although the author is clearly an advocate. Instead it starts from the premise that a united Ireland is an inevitable outcome, possibly as soon as 2030. As such, the author explores numerous aspects that should be considered in order for this to happen as smoothly as possible.

The author has clearly researched this in depth and frequently goes into more detail than I needed, making it feel a bit dry at times. However I did find it very interesting overall.

[Hannah JB · Rating 5 out of 5]

Currently reading - in slow motion. I tend to read physical books while on public transit, or on lunch break at work. Until I find a cover for this cover, this is something I'll read on holiday or at home. I live in East Belfast and work in city centre and recognise that people living outside of the North reading this book can't appreciate how radical this print and design style choice is. This would, at best, get wide eyed stares on the bus or train - and at work, would absolutely be cause for a call from HR. Even in conversation with a colleague who fancies himself an academic centrist - merely mentioning this book, all while being open to other book recommendations, political platforms, or other general counterpoints deeply damaged that relationship. I've not heard from him since. I'm enthralled and deeply invested and curious, but am also recognising more each day that the salience of an ideology is one thing, while the actual cultural environment may be quite another.

[Lee · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well informed perspective and the author achieves much more than anything you'll find in the media or from political parties either side of the border in outlining what might actually happen to bring about a border poll, and what changes would be felt north and south. Frankly everything else you can find on this unification is mostly hot air and flag waving - from both proponents and opponents. I would like to have read the author's perspective on what happens to British private businesses, infrastructure, media landscape, adopting the euro and other more practical matters.

This book would have been worthy of a 5/5 if it were a bit more fun and engaging, whereas some readers may be put off by the slightly dry, academic approach. 4/5 from me.

[Eamonn · Rating 4 out of 5]

Extremely informative. I am an American with only a bit of prior knowledge about the issues discussed, but I still found it to be well worth my time, and I recommend it to anyone who wants to be better informed about how the next several decades of Ireland's politics will be shaped.

[Cormac · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thoughtful, well-considered and informative. Intentionally raises more questions than it does provide answers. Personal suggestions from the author are kept to a minimum, and are pragmatic when raised.

[Robert · Rating 1 out of 5]

A United Ireland will involve dealing with many complex and difficult challenges, but unfortunately, this book doesn't come to grip with them. Most of the book focuses on minor or irrelevant details (there are two whole chapters on the d'hondt system which could be used to select ministers) while not spending enough time on the real challenges.

The author takes an overly legalistic approach and seems to believe that a United Ireland will be a success so long as we have the right constitutional amendments. There is a lot of talk about how Unionists should be respected and consulted, but the book never explains what this means in practice. Nor does it ever seriously consider what will happen if Unionists refuse to accept the Irish state and become an isolated and resistant minority.

The chapter on economics was atrocious and the author fundamentally misunderstood the issue. Firstly, he ignored all economic studies that show the high cost of a United Ireland and instead only considers one positive study, without mentioning that it was funded by Friends of Sinn Féin. He then says that the subvention is only 3% of GDP but Irish economic growth has averaged 6% over the last decade, therefore annual growth can pay the subvention twice over!

I was genuinely shocked at such a terrible misunderstanding.

The figures he cites don't take into account inflation, GDP distortions or that growth has been high partly because the economy was in a terrible state in 2010. But most of all, he fails to realise that the subvention is a budget cost and not all economic growth goes straight into the budget. Just because the economy grows by €10bn, doesn't mean the government can spend an extra €10bn. The author later says the subvention is really only 0.7% of GDP, which he calls "close to a rounding error."

[Chris · Rating 4 out of 5]

There are a lot of issues which need to be addressed when thinking about a reunified Ireland, as this book so ably points out. Another reviewer has said the book raises more questions than it answers, and I agree: in a sense it has to. We need to think long and hard about what we want a united Ireland to mean, if we really do want it. One big take-away from this book for me was that the reunification of Germany, where the west simply swallowed up the east without any constitutional changes, apart from allocating seats in the Bundestag to the east, is not the best way to do it, even more so given the history of Ireland. It was good to read the debunking of some popular myths: that Northern Ireland would be a complete drain on the finances of the Republic after unification. On present figures maybe, but in a united Ireland, with a different economic dynamic that may not be quite the case.

Another reviewer has described this book 'as dry as burnt toast'. Well, these are difficult matters to reach some sort of equitable solution to, and many (almost certainly most) people will not necessarily appreciate it all the ins and outs. If this book is dry, then perhaps it has done its job!

[Cold · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was a bad book given how much he obviously knows about Ireland and the prospect of unification.

O'Leary thinks it's a dispassionate analysis that builds a case throughout the book. In reality, he ignores all the difficult sides of Irish Nationalists until the end. He'll spend page after page lecturing about how the British state cannot be trusted, and then acts like the nationalists have always been peace loving law abiders.

He probably is right that demographic trends make unification inevitable when combined with the pre-commitments made in the Good Friday Agreement. And there's so many useful details in this book, particularly in the later chapters. O'Leary has truly thought through unification, but he is incredibly dismissive of the fears and concerns of non-nationalists.

[Kevin O · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent explanation and exploration of how the nuts and bolts of a potentially united ireland could come form after what seems like the inevitable border poll takes place.
Emotions is removed from this practical lesson in how the unification could be formed by either of two main forms ! Case 1 involves Northern Ireland remaining as a functioning sub-state with Case 2 as complete unification of the North.
Very interesting & timely ..
Recommend ALL of our islands citizens to read it and genuinely try take in what Brendan is saying ..

[Matthew · Rating 4 out of 5]

A timely book that addresses a number of key themes of Irish unity. A successionist conception rather than a transformative idea of reunification, however, essential to contextualise the future debates

[Sølvi Goard · Rating 3 out of 5]

Aggressively centrist and therefore kind of lacking a clear political reason for unification, but useful.

[Daniel Mossop]

Probably too in depth for me.

[John Ó Doibhlin · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very rigorous examination with many compelling and well reasoned arguments.

[Donal · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential reading on the topic close to all our hearts

[Andrew · Rating 5 out of 5]

Best book I've read this year. I am so much better informed on what needs to be done IF a reunited Ireland is to happen.

[Richie · Rating 3 out of 5]

As dry as burnt toast.

[Tom M (London) · Rating 4 out of 5]

Almost brushing aside the concerns of those in the North who don't want a united Ireland, the distinguished Prof. Brendan O'Leary, esteemed for his profound expertise in political science and governance, addresses the complex issue of Irish reunification with a scholarly rigour reminiscent of his extensive advisory roles to governments worldwide. With an assertive yet nuanced approach, O'Leary delves into the historical precedents of other once-divided nations, notably Germany's successful reunification and Cyprus's failed attempts, offering a meticulous analysis of the factors that shaped their outcomes.

Drawing on his formidable experience, O'Leary dissects the challenges inherent in uniting societies with deep-seated divisions, providing insights into potential pathways forward. His examination leaves no facet untouched, emphasising the pragmatic and often mundane tasks essential to navigating such contentious transitions. While he espouses the potential benefits of a reunited Ireland, meticulously detailing its advantages, O'Leary acknowledges the formidable obstacles posed by the entrenched perspectives of Unionists.

In his weighty discourse, O'Leary challenges conventional assumptions and calls for a comprehensive reassessment of strategies by decision-makers and influencers across Ireland, North and South. His treatise, though demanding in its depth and detail, is positioned as essential reading for Irish politicians and beyond, urging a careful consideration of its insights amid the complexities of political negotiation and societal reconciliation.

[Erik Brodin · Rating 3 out of 5]

“Making Sense of a United Ireland” is a non-fiction book with a dizzyingly high flow of information, so one needs to stay focused when O’Leary goes through and evaluates different implications of a possible reunification of Ireland. The book provides an overview of the political and democratic institutions in the southern and northern parts of the island and evaluates which arrangements and approaches would be possible or even desirable to bring into a possible common future. The reading/listening of "Making Sense of a United Ireland" is both demanding and, to be honest, dry in its approach, however O’Leary delivers many interesting and eye-opening facts, clarifications, and conclusions, which eases the reading. And not to be forgotten, some truly fascinating facts and insights emerge along the reading. The part I Personally appreciated the most was the overview and comparisons with previous reunification efforts elsewhere in the world, both successful and unsuccessful, but I occasionally lost interest in parts with too much recitation of election laws, constitutional technicalities, etc.
Rating 3,5↓

Review originally written in Swedish