The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It

by Joshua Cooper Ramo

Today the very ideas that made America great imperil its future. Our plans go awry and policies fail. History's grandest war against terrorism creates more terrorists. Global capitalism, intended to improve lives, increases the gap between rich and poor. Decisions made to stem a financial crisis guarantee its worsening. Environmental strategies to protect species lead to their extinction.

The traditional physics of power has been replaced by something radically different. In The Age of the Unthinkable , Joshua Cooper Ramo puts forth a revelatory new model for understanding our dangerously unpredictable world. Drawing upon history, economics, complexity theory, psychology, immunology, and the science of networks, he describes a new landscape of inherent unpredictability--and remarkable, wonderful possibility.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, History, Economics, Military Fiction, Psychology, Business

288 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2009

About the author

JOSHUA COOPER RAMO IS CO-CEO OF KISSINGER ASSOCIATES, THE ADVISORY FIRM OF FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE DR. HENRY KISSINGER. HIS LAST BOOK WAS THE INTERNATIONAL BEST SELLER “THE AGE OF THE UNTHINKABLE”

Based in Beijing and New York, Ramo serves as an advisor to some of the largest companies and investors in the world. He is a member of the boards of directors of Starbucks and Fedex.

A Mandarin speaker who has been called “one of China’s leading foreign-born scholars” by the World Economic Forum, Ramo is best known for coining and articulating “The Beijing Consensus,” among other writings on China.

His views on global politics and economics have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Time, Foreign Policy and Fortune. He has been a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC, NBC and PBS. In 2008 he served as China analyst for NBC during the Beijing Olympic Games. For his work with Bob Costas and Matt Lauer during the Opening Ceremony, Ramo shared in a Peabody and Emmy award.

Before entering the advisory business, Ramo was a journalist. He was the youngest senior editor and foreign editor in the history of Time magazine, wrote more than 20 cover stories and ultimately oversaw the magazine’s technology coverage and online activities.

Ramo has been a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Leaders for Tomorrow, The Leaders Project, The Asia Society 21 Group, a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founder of the US-China Young Leaders Forum, and Crown Fellow of the Aspen Institute. His last book, “The Age of the Unthinkable,” was translated into more than a dozen languages. His first book, “No Visible Horizon,” described his experiences as a competitive aerobatic pilot.

Raised in Los Ranchos, New Mexico, Ramo holds degrees from the University of Chicago and New York University. He is an avid pilot and motorcyclist.

Reviews

[Dahlia · Rating 2 out of 5]

think different! be flexible, 'cause stuff is unpredictable now and you can't, you know, think the same as before.

--oh, ok. so, how exactly?

you know, like, keep an open mind. and, think different. crazy stuff happening and we have to, you know, keep up.

--so, specific ... ?

be DIFFERENT, man!

--ah. great, thanks.

yeah!

[deep · Rating 1 out of 5]

Unsatisfying. Has the depth and breadth of a conversational magazine article, loaded with sensationalist language and cross dimensional anecdotes as evidence. Spends nearly a hundred pages saying how the world is different, complex and unpredictable, with endless set ups for a soon to come profound insight that never really does. Someone interested in geopolitics but unfamiliar with concepts such as critical thinking biases, resilience, adaptability and the value of empathy would benefit from this as he names these things specifically as tools for handling our strange new world. But I do not think such people exist. Maybe some subset of those with Asperger’s. Some salient points were made on the need for critical thinking, the characteristics of complex systems, the fractal geometry of highly connected ideas, players and systems to create change with greater speed, violence and complexity than “before”, as well as age old human tendencies bollocksing things up, such as needing to be liked over wanting to be right. But none of these are mind-blowing new revelations in a book that set out to address the mind-blowing new world.

[Jeff · Rating 2 out of 5]

A book attempting to link recent terrorism and upheaval in financial markets to argue swift, significant change is upon us (and we are poorly prepared for it).

The weak point is that it never really makes its case. You really just have to assume that we are in the midst of historically unprecedented change. I feel like this ignores the resilience of markets and institutions as well as the upheavals of past years (Russian debt default, Asian currency crisis, LTCM, etc). Not to mention the significant foreign policy hot spots that we have been able to muddle through.

The strong point is that he is right about our institutions being poorly prepared for change.

We are indeed in the midst of change, just as we always have been.

[Mal Warwick · Rating 5 out of 5]

Resiliency. Maybe that was what was lacking.

In the opening pages of The Age of the Unthinkable Joshua Cooper Ramo cites long-time Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s 2008 testimony to Congress on finding a “flaw” in his reasoning about how to manage the economy.

“In other words,” Greenspan’s questioner said, “you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right. It was not working?”

Greenspan replied, “Absolutely. . . I was shocked. Because I have been going for forty years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working very well indeed.”

If Alan Greenspan were the only world leader who found himself at a loss to explain why his policies had gone awry, we wouldn’t be facing so many crises simultaneously. But he is far from the only one. He’s just the only one with high name recognition who has honestly and publicly admitted how baffled he is that, in effect, everything he knew was wrong. “The sum of their misconceptions,” Ramo writes, “has now produced a tragic paradox: policies designed to make us safer instead make the world more perilous. History’s grandest war against terrorism, for instance, not only failed to eliminate terrorism, it creates more dangerous terrorists. Attempts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons instead encourage countries to accelerate their quest for an atom bomb. Global capitalism, intended to boost the quality of life of people around the world, claws the gap between rich and poor ever wider.” And the litany goes on: financial regulation, environmental protections, Middle East peace initiatives — every major effort to confront a threat to human well-being seems to backfire with unintended consequences.

In The Age of the Unthinkable, Ramo explains patiently and brilliantly that this is so because, at the most fundamental level, the architecture of civilization has become unimaginably complex. He turns to little-known cognitive scientists, terrorists, ecologists, military leaders, venture capitalists, and other insightful observers in their own fields to illuminate the larger challenge: that the way our brains work and the way we have been taught to think in the West equip us poorly to cope with the emergent properties that inevitably appear when complex systems are tweaked. The only way to survive over the long haul in such circumstances is always to view the Big Picture and to build resiliency into every system — military, financial, environmental, you-name-it.

In one of the most revealing scenes in the book, Ramo refers to research conducted at the University of Michigan contrasting the ways American and Chinese students viewed a series of the same images. Each image depicted a large object in the foreground (a tiger, for example) with its environment shown in the background. The American students devoted an overwhelming proportion of their time to viewing the foreground objects and later proved largely incapable of describing the backgrounds against which they appeared. The Chinese students focused on the environment, viewing each picture holistically and spending only a limited amount of time on the objects in the foreground.

Ramo points to this contrast (Greenspan’s “flaw”) as a signal of what’s wrong in the Western approach to problem-solving. Given any problem, we’re schooled to attack it head-on, ignoring the context and often the possible repercussions of our actions. Instead, Ramo argues, we should take several steps backward, view every problem as the manifestation of numerous intersecting factors, and look for indirect ways to prod the system to make an end run around the problem. For instance, Ramo cites the work of General Aharon Farkash, Israel’s most successful leader of military intelligence, who found that head-on attacks against insurgents invariably led to failure and that asking the usual questions would lead only to confusion. Rather than focus exclusively on the movement of arms through Iranian border crossings, for example, Farkash asked his agents to study the most popular show on Iranian TV to understand what was new in their adversaries’ thinking. “Focus on things that move and change,” Farkash insisted. Ramo sees that injunction as essential for a successful response to the challenges of the future.

The Age of the Unthinkable is now on my short list of contemporary books that truly help explain how the world works today. It’s one of the most thought-provoking works I’ve read in many years.

According to Wikipedia, Joshua Cooper Ramo is a former senior editor and foreign editor of Time magazine and later Vice Chairman at Kissinger Associates, the consulting firm of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

[Rob · Rating 4 out of 5]

I am painfully conflicted about this book. It reads like it was written by a grad student, not a former editor for Time. The writing is gimmicky and self-important, and the first chapter should be torn out and lit on fire. It steps into pretty much every cliche you can imagine about a dynamic world. Most egregious is the section on Oriental thinking (with, of course, a big shout out to Sun Tzu) which reads like one of those late 80's pieces on why the Japanese are so much better than us that lead to embarrassments like "Rising Sun" only with the Chinese now standing in for the Japanese.

Even more, a lot of the ideas in this book were interesting and novel 10-20 years ago, and it feels a bit painful to hear them rolled out now. It's like listening to the guy who just discovered Gibson or Stephenson and doesn't get why everyone else isn't as excited as he it. With the exception of some interesting material about overfishing, there's not a thing in here I haven't seen presented more compellingly elsewhere.

But....

The thing about this book is that the underlying message is, if taken with a grain of salt, a really really good one. For all that there are failures in some specifics and some of the analysis and conclusions are just plain loopy, the core thesis that the world is in a state of rapid change and that we will benefit from expanding existing models with new (or new to anyone who hasn't read any science fiction or social non-fiction in the past 20 years) and flexible approaches to problems. That a "deep defense" based on improving resiliency may be as important as a classical defense, designed to stop a thing entirely.

I ended up giving this book a more favorable rating than it maybe deserved because I think this might be a good read for someone who hasn't read about or thought about how we deal with a changing world. For someone who feels blindsided by the rate of change, this might well have some useful insights (as much as I worry about anyone accepting it all at face value).

[Clay Wescott · Rating 5 out of 5]

The world is at a tipping point, like a sand pile being created a grain at a time, which becomes a cone that at any point can have an avalanche. Sand cones look stable but are in fact deeply unpredictable. The world is becoming like a sand cone. To solve today's challenges, citizens and policymakers need to get beyond the linear thinking that may have worked in the past. While in the past leaders thought of themselves of architects of a system they could control and manage, now they need to become gardeners in a shifting context. The world is too complex and unstable to be architects and builders. Coping with the new world involves doing things we do not fully understand, with many contextual unknowns, different interests, and multiple transactions that enhance risk. Facing these challenges requires addressing a range of motivational problems, allowing solutions to emerge from trial and error, and seeking authorization for teamwork with highly varied functional roles and skill sets. It takes complex learning adaptation, resilience, keeping options open and mashups. Draws examples from artists, entrepreneurs, hedge fund innovators and terrorists showing how it works for those with battlefield courage.

[Steve Van Slyke · Rating 2 out of 5]

This book is about a mile wide and an inch deep. It’s formulaic. It’s almost as if the author had the structure of a book in his mind but not much new or profound in terms of ideas. So he strings together a series of vignettes and anecdotes, no doubt re-cycled from past writings and then tries to tie them together with glittering generalities and a vague theory for dealing with chaos and uncertainty that he calls Deep Security.

In his discussions about terrorism and the financial catastrophe of 2008 he fails to mention the concept of root causes or what those might be.

The non-stop anecdotal vignettes and “catchy” subheads were annoying but so was his tendency to keep telling you the good part is coming, so don’t stop reading. Unfortunately I did keep reading but I don’t feel like I ever got to that part.

I gave it two stars rather than one because some of the anecdotes were interesting.

[Ed · Rating 5 out of 5]

A really mind changing book that helps us see the emerging new world disorder in an extraordinary new light using the metaphor of the sand pile: how unpredictable the moment of avalanche is. As the book's back cover says: 'the belief that globalization is harmonizing the planet has failed the tests of good science: it neither predicts nor explains our world.'Interestingly he is fascinated by Hezbollah (whose leaders he has met)not because he approves of their methods, but because of their adaptability and ability to surf chaos.

The book is notable for his use of personal anecdote and personal histories to make his points. He gives us a strong sense that deep security involves increasing the resilience of our society, not thinking we can protect it from shocks. We need to roll with the punches rather than think there won't be any. I think his lessons apply well in our personal lives too.

[R · Rating 1 out of 5]

Sorry...I only made it through about half of this book before I started to skim. He seems to try to set up a tremendous argument about foreign policy (a la 'The Black Swan'), but instead trots out tangential stories about Google, Gertrude Stein and Nintendo. Seems that rather than making a researched, determined, and authoritative point, he's crafted a 'Gladwellian' pop-intellectual book to fill the 'political' niche missed by MG and the Freakonomics guys.

I was given this book by someone who thought Ramo gave an excellent speech, and that may be. But this is a crappy book.

[Frank Staniszewski · Rating 4 out of 5]

Extremely intersting thesis. Saw Cooper Ramo on Charlie Rose and he was very interesting.
Basic point is that succcess in a changing world requires thinking outside the box to the extreme.
While an excellent thesis that makes you think about other applications, it is laid out very broadly but not very deep. Examples are good though. The recommendations for the future of foreign policy is not very instructive and makes for a let down ending.

[Elizabeth · Rating 4 out of 5]

Reminded me of chaos theory and the idea that it can be used well to understand modern challenges. Mostly fluff, but some interesting ideas. Made me want to study development because of its potential implications for security.

[Vicii · Rating 4 out of 5]

fabulous book. It took me a while to get into it but then I found it fascinating

[Len Hjalmarson · Rating 4 out of 5]

"Louis Halle, and American diplomat and strategist of the 1950's, once observed that foreign policy is made not in reaction to the world but in reaction to an image of the world in the minds of the people making decisions. 'In the degree that the image is false, actually and philosophically, no technician, however proficient, can make the policy that is based on it sound.'" AOTU, 13).

"If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible." F. A. von Hayek, "The Pretence of Knowledge," 1974.

If you were raised in an Asian home..

If you are under thirty and net savvy.

If you understand "hockey stick" systems and sandpile theory.

If you read Fritjof Capra and lean toward chaos theory in understanding the way things work..

If Sun Tzu makes more sense than von Clausewitz.

If you love and approve the work of people like Margaret Wheatley and Peter Senge..

If you follow missional leadership gurus like Alan Roxburgh or Ryan Bolger, and you dig complex adaptive systems. Then you don't need to read Joshua Cooper Ramo, "The Age of the Unthinkable." You are already there.

In some ways the book could be summarized by any of several of the aphorisms of Sun Tzu, like this one: For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.

"The Age of the Unthinkable" is the recognition of the triumph of networked reality in the world. As such, it is also the de facto affirmation that attempting to work in the old ways ("use a bigger stick", or "command control is key") has now become both naive and self-destructive.

For most of us, especially those of us over forty years old in positions of leadership in traditional structures, it really is worth the purchase. Because it's important that we realize just how strange and different the world has become. It's important because NOT realizing the difference is going to make us both less effective and potentially dangerous. We are going to live with more pain, and cause more pain, than is needful as we attempt to lead in the places we are called.

Where to start to try to give you a sense of what Ramo is trying to convey? This VIDEO is a good place to begin. Watch the video and answer this question: How many passes does the team in white make? THEN read on below..

**** ****
In the second half of the book Ramo points to the discoveries of social researcher Richard Nisbett. In working with graduate students Nisbett discovered that the world views of east and west are distinctive in some intriguing ways. In the east change is seen as a constant. In the West we lean toward determinism, even where we interpret it through a religious lens (God upholds the Universe and creates laws which make interactions predictable). Moreover, and related, in the east the emphasis is on context, a relational and more-or-less gestalt approach to reality. In the West, we look at the whole through the parts. Our interest is in knowledge as power/control and we stress independence of context.

A test was designed to measure the focal interest of eastern and western students. Thirty-six images flashed, changing every thirty seconds, with an eye-tracker recording where the subject looked. Western students immediately looked at the foreground object -- the horse or tiger, for example. And once they spotted the central image they spent the bulk of the time looking right at it. Chinese students, by contrast, looked at the environment first, probing the complex background of forest or field. They did look at the focal object, but for far less time than the American students. (159-161)

Consequently, those immersed in the eastern world much more quickly perceive the meaning of relationships. They are far more sensitive to context, and they will thrive in this connected world in ways that Enlightenment westerners will not.

Ramo spins out implications for politics, diplomacy, economics, ecology, and systems in general and the revolution he seeks is toward "deep security."

[Maciek Krzysztofowicz · Rating 4 out of 5]

In the age of unthinkable risks the only possible strategy is encouraging even more, stronger unthinkable good things to happen. The author warns that it will involve profound discomfort, psychological shift to embrace uncertainty, introducing caring economy, new sort of patience and „at times we’re more scared, to replace the habit of striking back with new efforts to connect to the world”. Sadly, as relevant as 16 years ago.

[CHAD FOSTER · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very thought-provoking book that challenges long established conventional wisdom. The author offers few specific "how to" remedies, but this is the point. Instead, he argues for unleashing the creative power of the whole by empowering individuals and small groups. Adaptation and innovation are the way to building a society that is secure against the inevitable shocks produced by the constant and unpredictable changes of today's world.

At the heart of the argument is a necessary acknowledgement that we cannot accurately predict the future. Instead, we must look at the world holistically rather than zeroing-in on a single, easily identifiable aspect of a problem. Doing so, blinds us to the often momentous effects on the overall situation that result from each action we take. Today's problems are not symmetrical brick walls that can be easily and systematically broken down into digestible parts. Instead, they are like sand piles - unpredictable and ever shifting.

Our penchant for tangible, simplified "solutions" does not serve us well. The author describes a different way: creating a society that acts in its own defense like an immune system. Rather than a centrally controlled reaction, challenges generate de-centralized response where solutions and innovations arise from a multitude of sources. Empowerment is the way ahead ... not hoarding control.

Joshua Cooper Ramo makes a highly nuanced argument that can, at times, seem too theoretical and daunting in its scale, especially when viewed against the backdrop of entrenched bureaucracy and hierarchical traditions. However, it is well worth your time.

[David · Rating 3 out of 5]

I decided to read The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do about It by Joshua Cooper Ramo based on the title and a reasonably good average rating. The author introduces a number of thought-provoking concepts and ideas and a lot of the examples he uses were interesting. But overall I often felt lost in the sense of not knowing where we were or where we were headed; in other words, the book lacked coherent structure in my opinion. I do feel I learned a lot of new ideas and perspectives from this book, but I didn't get any clear sense of what we should be doing about the new world disorder as implied in the title. I'd probably give it 3.5 and I normally am easy and round up but not this time.

[Toni Morgan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Politicians and political scientists throughout history have made decisions based on a simple assumption that the world, world leaders, governments, and extragovernmental organizations operate in sensical and predictable ways. This book explains how these assumptions are no longer helpful, and that assuming organization and predictability in world order lends to inflexible and detrimental policies. The author recommends that we should reshape our approach to world politics, becoming more adaptable to fit the unpredictability off the new world order in economics, biothreats, statecraft, and terrorism.

[Rachael · Rating 4 out of 5]

a bit dated of course but fascinating to read in this day and age. it introduces some very intriguing concepts that are interestingly applied to multiple facets of life, not just international relations. plus, looking back on the last ten years, you can see how some of these predictions and warnings have come to fruition (and some have not). a thought-provoking read even for folks who aren't scholars of international affairs or what have you.

[Timeo Williams · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was an unique take on defense strategy that was rather holistic in it's approach. I felt like Nicolas Taleb was a co-writer as the book discussed the complexity of every intertwined systems.

Joshua is right in that there are models to follow in regards to allocating defense funds in a fashion similar to Israel's military intelligence force. And taking some cues from Eastern philosophy and their value of context, certainly doesn't hurt.

Again, the answer is the question being asked

[Chris · Rating 5 out of 5]

If uncertainty lived anywhere it would be in this book. Example after example provide a wider perspective on unpredictability of events and the complexities layered upon them. The first book I gave a five star rating, just for the examples - highly informative and uncommon.

[Joseph Trella · Rating 3 out of 5]

I would rate this book as a 3.5. There are some interesting ideas and ways at looking at large issues. But there are no definitive examples of how Ramo's points would translate to large scale issues in a modern world.

[Leticia Supple · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an outstanding book that reimagines grand strategy. Through story and explanation, it gradually reorients you from narrow to imaginative. It is a fantastic read; perhaps the most important strategy reading of this century so far.

[Christian · Rating 3 out of 5]

A great listen. Audiobook has extra chapters that are illustrative and helpful. This book is a compelling argument for considering why and how revolutionary change happens in any arena.

[Ted · Rating 2 out of 5]

Esler Research Notes The Age of the Unthinkable by Joshua Ramo By Joshua Cooper Ramo Author Background The author of this book is a managing director of Kissinger Associates. This group provides advice to governments around the world. He was previously the managing editor of TIME Magazine. And he splits his residence between Beijing and the United States. Part I � The Sandpile Effect Chapter 1 � The Nature of the Age Ramo uses the first chapter of the book to set the stage that there are massive changes going on in the world and because of this we are reeling, trying to figure out what is happening. He suggests that we are at the beginning of a period in world history in which there will be significant changes in the international order. These changes will be as big as any that have been seen in the span of history. His hope is that his book will help us to think about the changes that are coming. He contrasts the old way of thinking and the new way of thinking. The old way is slow moving and conservative, the new way is entrepreneurial and filled with new ideas. He believes that the major problems of our day, whether it be global warming, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, economic chaos or other threats demand that we have a new �grand strategy� (Ramo 2000:10). Instead of coming to grips with these changes, our society is only making minor changes to the existing order and this will lead us down a dangerous path. The book's aim is to come up with a new way of thinking about the world. The main argument of the book is, "In a revolutionary era with surprising innovation, we need to think and act like a revolutionary" (Ramo 2000:11). The development of these new ideas is of course, built on past ideas although they are revolutionary. "The old laws of power, confronted with a faster-moving and a more intricately ordered system, are now in need of modification" (Ramo 2000:14). Ramo gives us a few ideas of radical changes in our ways of thinking. For example, perhaps we don't want a peace agreement in the Middle East (2000:14-15). He notes that the ideas of a hundred years ago are radically different than the ideas of today. Today's system of economics, science and other areas of life are actually very complex and when we have problems in one part of the system will often lead to problems in other part of the system (2000:17-18). Chapter 2 � The Old Physics There's a theory that says that democracy is a way of keeping nations from fighting against each other that was �scientifically proven� by a researcher named Babst (Ramo 2000:21-22). Unfortunately, this theory did not hold up. In 1999, American bombers began dropping bombs in Belgrade, Serbia. As a result, researchers have gone back to the drawing board to look at other options. Ramo is beginning to build an argument that the past theories of geo-politics are no longer holding true. He traces Morgenthau's views that there are rules for the governing of nations and of power. Morgenthau, a member of the "realist" school of political science (2000:31-32), wrote a number of substantive books that talk about political power and how nations make decisions. Ramo states out that realism is no longer applicable. What we thought was true about international relations was destroyed on September 11(2000:35). Realism suggests that there are particular ways that nations should act. It also believes that states have a monopoly on the use on violence or the machinery of war (Ramo 2000:35). In this day of "computer hackers, terrorists and drug cartels", that is certainly no longer accurate. So, Ramo deconstructs the realists school of political science that has governed our way of thinking on international affairs for many years. "Today, our global policy is largely conducted by elites who are descendants of Morgenthau and disciples of Babst" (Ramo 2000:37). Ramo proposes that this is rather self-serving for the elite. He goes on to note that in a revolutionary world, these types of people make very poor revolutionaries. This chapter concludes with a quote from an economist named Hayek. After receiving the noble prize for economics, Hayek stated that we should be very careful about listening to experts. There are substantial limits to what we know. To expecting more is "the pretense of knowledge" (2000:39). Chapter 3 � The Sandpile In chapter three, Ramo open with an illustration about a researcher named Levin. His focus is on ecological systems that were hit by some sort of unexpected shock and what the response was to the shock (Ramo 2000:43). He then conjectured about the shock that would come from a bio-medical attack. Levin concluded that when the system changed, you needed to change the way that you think about it (2000:45). So Ramo teamed up with Levin to consider what would happen if these ideas would were in fact applied to geopolitics. The author uses the metaphor of a sandpile upon which grains of sand are added until it creates an avalanche. Similarly, various geopolitical events and ideas are put on top of one another until a change occurs. He traces this to a number of different laboratories and scientists and focuses on a scientist named Held. The conclusion of his research is that there is a complex arrangement of items which create critical mass when moved. We must divorce ourselves from the idea that there are simple inputs and outputs. Ramo proposes that we should think about the world with two different affects operating at the same time. The first principle is granularity, the "unstoppable tumbling of fresh sand into a pile" (Ramo 2000:59). The second one is interdependence, "the surprising connections of one pile to another� (Ramo 2000:59). These two things are relating back and forth with each other in a complex world system that we simply are not able to fully grasp or understand. They are too complex. Chapter 4 � Avalanche Country Ramo frames the fall of the Soviet Union as an event that historians should have seen, but didn�t (Ramo 2000:65-66). This is important because it highlights the possibility that large changes may be going on around us and we are unable to see them. Ramo again uses the metaphor of a sandpile, now relating it to the Par Bak Avalanche Principle (2009:66). This is a phenomenon seen in nature in which unseen factors combine to create a rapid change event. In tracing the events of the Soviet Union, Ramo is suggesting that we cannot be deterministic about the future, particularly when it comes to complex systems (2000:73). Granular effects can produce big collapses. Chapter 5 � Budweiser The use of air power to gain superiority over an opponent is the standard US military doctrine. The Chinese, in 2002, began selling a box that could disrupt the signals that manage air superiority. This is, for Ramo, an example of a new technology displacing the old (Ramo 2000:82-87). This is, of course, the age-old dilemma of warfare. He notes that by increasing your security, you are threatening the security of your neighbors. Thus, nation-states are doomed to be insecure (2000:91-92). Perhaps, suggests one researcher (Robert Jervis) a nation should make only defensive weapons, thus avoiding threat to ones neighbors. Because military technology waivers between advances in defense and office, in the end the answer became, �was it less costly to attack or defend?� (2000:94). Current trends indicate that attacking is currently cheaper, thus Ramos predicts that we will see more attacking in the future (2000:96). This means that what is currently unthinkable might become reality. Part II � Deep Security Chapter 6 � Mashup This chapter is introduced with a story about a Gertrude Stein, an American-born art critic who lived in Paris. She was particularly enamored with combining old styles with new ones. Ramo �demolishes the idea that we can somehow manage the international system toward a period of peace as if balancing it on a teeter-totter� (2000:107). Instead, he believes we need a new �grand strategy� that takes current realities into consideration. He suggests something he calls, �Deep Security� (2000:108). In this approach, one seeks to become immune to the dangers by containing the risk that they represent (2000:109). The place to look for these dangers is along the �fault line of the old and the new� (2000:117). After spending about six pages of text on the development of the Nintendo Wii (something that Ramo feels was a game-changer), he introduces the concept of the �mash-up� (Ramo 2000:126). Mash-ups are when things that are, on the surface, very different are put together to create something new. So, Ramos is describing a new world in which we attempt to combine the old and new into something that has been, up until now, unthinkable. Chapter 7 � The General and the Billionaire Aharon Farkash provides this chapter�s introductory story. Appointed to be the head of Israel�s defense ministry, his successful career was made possible, according to Ramo, by being able to �look deeply� at a problem (Ramo 2000:133-134, 168). Ramo invites the reader to ask the question, �What is the right way to think in this new age?� (2009:134). A current challenge we have is too much information. We can�t determine which pieces we should be looking at and consider important. Farkash would ask, �Where can I fail?� (2000:136). He accepted that his view of the world would be incomplete. He studied terrorist failures in order to know what could be done to thwart them (2000:139-140). Moritz, a venture capitalist working in Silicon Valley, is another example Ramo draws from to make the case that we must think differently (2000:145-153). He is credited with looking at the whole picture of a new venture, not particularizing or getting bogged down in technical details. Nisbett, an experimental psychologist, discovered that different cultures think differently about change (2000: 157-161). This entire chapter explores the above stories in detail with the goal of suggesting to us that we can and should learn new ways of seeing the world. Chapter 8 � The Management Secrets of Hizb�allah Henry Kissinger developed the idea of d�tente, which would go on to become the dominant US approach to the Soviet Union (Ramo 2000:169-171). This approach to foreign policy no longer works as the US no longer is fighting the cold war. We now need, according to Ramo, resiliency. A challenge to resiliency is the interconnectedness of our world. Another challenge is people�s insistence on �following the rules� of the old order even though they have been invalidated (2000:175). Ramo points to Hizb�allah as an organization with resiliency. They moved into Palestinian areas and became part of the local scene. They learned how to blend it, and ran away when attacked. They sought to be subversive and not frontal when they attacked (2000:181-190). As an example of no resiliency, Ramos provides the Bush administration during the Iraq War (2000:192-199). Chapter 9 � The Limits of Persuasion Using the Falklands war to make his case, Ramo highlights one of Bak�s laws, namely, that small things can have huge impacts (Ramo 2000:202). Small targets might have large repercussions. The proposal of this chapter is to ask how we can make these things work for us. In the new world order, we are often �targeting� systems and networks (2000:204). These are much harder to hit targets than a person, nation, etc. One strategy might to conduct a different type of war than simply hitting the enemy at their weak point. Instead, concentrating on a limited attack, if done in the right places, may yield better results (2000:205-208). This type of approach is an effects-based approach. You are trying to create a certain effect versus achieve a particular objective. The remainder of this chapter is a story about Kaminsky, an Internet routing specialist, and his discovery of a �hole� in the Domain Naming System. The purpose of the story is to highlight how a problem can be addressed using Ramo�s new way of thinking. Chapter 10 � Riding the Earthquake Using a doctor�s experience fighting a deadly strain of TB in South Africa as his foil, Ramo provides an example of how different ways of treating problems give different results. In this example, TB patients were watched to make sure they complied with the treatment. In the case of AIDS, the patients were educated. The latter had a much higher �following� of the regiment and thus a higher success rate (Ramo 2000:226-237). The point of this story is �the moment you hand power over to other people, you get an explosion of curiosity, innovation, and effort� (2000:235). The remainder of this chapter is devoted to examples which uphold this contention. Chapter 11 � The Revolution and You This chapter is a call to engage in the author�s ideas. The opening illustration is about a painting to pulls you into the artwork. It suggests that something terrible is about to happen and you are going to be a part of it (Ramo 2000:255-258). Another example is of a Chinese intellectual caught with contraband during the Cultural Revolution (2000:258-260). How will the reader handle the new era of the unthinkable? Ramo, JC. 2009. The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us and What We Can Do About It. Little, Brown and Company.

[Marisa · Rating 2 out of 5]

"Time. Space. Gender. There are no rules anymore. All boundaries are breaking down in the wake of the infinite future. The only thing that -- the only thing that remain -- the only thing that remains are the things that have stood the test of time -- love, values, and of course, the pyramids -- the strongest shape ever constructed, a shape that fits all other shapes inside of it." -- Jim Halpert on The Office

It's not a good sign that as I was reading this book I kept seeing Jim Halpert in eyeliner hawking "The Pyramid."

First: the title is a complete misnomer. This book isn't about why the "new world order" surprises us, nor does it offer any suggestions on "what we can do about it." At all. It is a book that repeats over and over that it does surprise us.

Second: this book could be pared down by 25% if all the weakly constructed examples/similes were cut out. Most of them add no value.

Third: the book has no structure. I'm still not clear on the definition of "deep security" because examples ramble on without clearly stating any single point. Examples bleed together as if reinforcing an idea, but whatever the idea is is missing.

Fourth: The couple of points that Ramos attempts to make he ends up walking back just as quickly. Ex: everything is disordered and chaos and you can never fully anticipate all proxy variables and having a clear cut plan never works, but also we must have a clearly defined plan and a lack of one is causing failure!

Honestly, for a guy who spends a lot of time in this book mocking those hoity-toity State Department/IR types, he certainly talks like one.

Two stars because some of the examples were interesting and Ramos is not a terrible writer despite the lack of structure/editing.

The TL;DR of the book: inflexible systems will ultimately fail while flexible, adaptive systems last forever, Ramos has a lot of examples to prove this and everyone should read less Clausewitz and more eastern philosophy. If this is your very first time hearing that a "terror group" might be doing something effectively or hearing that there is some wisdom to be found in eastern culture, you might be bamboozled into thinking this book is revolutionary. If not, you're going to walk to throw it across the room.

[Chad Manske · Rating 4 out of 5]

In "The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It," Joshua Cooper Ramo delivers a thought-provoking analysis of the rapidly changing global landscape and the challenges it presents to traditional ways of thinking. Published in 2009, Ramo argues that in today's interconnected world, traditional models of power and control are no longer sufficient to navigate the complexities of the modern era. Ramo draws on a wide range of examples, from the rise of non-state actors like ISIS to the unpredictability of financial markets, to illustrate his central thesis: that the world is becoming increasingly unpredictable and chaotic, and that traditional approaches to problem-solving are no longer effective. He introduces the concept of "deep unpredictability," the idea that the world is becoming more interconnected and complex, making it impossible to predict outcomes with any degree of certainty. One of the key strengths of the book is Ramo's ability to bring together insights from a wide range of disciplines, including economics, psychology, and history, to support his arguments. He draws on examples from ancient Chinese military strategy to modern neuroscience to demonstrate how the principles of adaptability, resilience, and creativity can help us navigate the uncertainties of the modern world. Ramo also offers practical advice on how individuals and organizations can adapt to the age of the unthinkable. He argues that we need to embrace uncertainty and develop the skills to respond quickly and effectively to unexpected challenges. By fostering a culture of innovation and experimentation, we can better prepare ourselves for the unpredictable future that lies ahead. Overall, "The Age of the Unthinkable" is a compelling and insightful read that challenges readers to rethink their assumptions about the world and embrace the chaos and complexity of the modern era.

[Jonathan O'Dell · Rating 4 out of 5]

I appreciated the opportunity to digest a perspective from an academic as intimately familiar with American foreign policy as Chinese foreign policy. Some readers’ reviews didn’t appreciate the comparison of certain terrorist organizations to that of existing global institutions (world bank, WHO, etc.)…mainly pointing out how much more resilient the former are compared to the latter, but it’s a perspective worth digesting nonetheless. The idea of creating resilient, decentralized institutions, of which concentrate on effects-based results is not necessarily new, however the fear that it’s not appreciated by foreign policy leaders is indeed disheartening and one of the points the author is trying to make.

I gave it a 4 because there’s indeed much to learn from the book, if not just to deepen an already existing understanding for how the world could shape out in the decades to come. Solutions that involve a complete reform of the State Department and implementing a more decentralized manner to foreign policy are well defended, but unfortunately can leave the reader feeling a bit useless in the implementation of those solutions. Dedicating a life to service, or at least a greater proportion of our life, is a great place start but again, resiliency of the individual won’t directly lead to resiliency of the nation unless institutional reform happens on a grand scale.

In all, definitely worth the read for those that appreciate the value of grand strategy and feel disheartened by the apparent stagnation of the US on the world stage.

[Mary · Rating 3 out of 5]

It should be mentioned that I listened to this on audiobook. This was probably a mistake, because the author reads his own materials. He has a excellent voice to listen to, but only if you want to put your child to sleep. His voice was way too soothing and he "whispered" at times making it hard to understand the end of his sentences. THEREFORE, my brain shut off from time to time and I think I ended up only hearing about half of what he said.

What I did hear was okay. I enjoyed the studies he referenced, but he really never truly stated what his big point was. I'm thinking it was we need to let people be creative in order for us all to succeed?? He just had all of these examples, but never really brought them all together to prove his overall point. I think it was just overall, poorly put together.

[Garrett Raymond · Rating 1 out of 5]

Did not finish. I never give up on books, even when I should but this one finally made me do it a little more than halfway through. The author is all hype no substance. They explain that we can’t use old thought models to understand the modern world by showing that those models don’t hold in all situations and that they aren’t precise enough when they do anyways. No shit, they are models. Then they babble more about how much the world is changing. Then they indicate they have new ways of thinking about the world, babble some more about change and then change the subject. I doubt he ever produces useful models to understand the world, after all he has already killed the idea of models, so where can he possibly go? Ramo is a joke.

[Tab Williams · Rating 1 out of 5]

The book is unreadable. It is horribly written. The first chapter is horrendous. The second isn't much better. Then I stopped reading.

I think the underlying point the author is trying to make is a good one: the world is rapidly changing and the old ways of thinking are useless and harmful. Ramo keeps hinting that he has found the answer. Skimming through some of the reviews proved my initial thinking: Ramo's conclusions are surface level and obvious.

You are betting off reading a review or two on here and spending your time/money elsewhere.

This is the 2nd book A. Pasquet has recommended. Both have been horrible. No longer a reliable source.