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Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives
The misguided forces driving conflict escalation between America and China, and the path to a new relationship
“A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world’s two most powerful nations wouldn’t have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America’s alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing.
In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations’ economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation’s fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship.
“A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world’s two most powerful nations wouldn’t have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America’s alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing.
In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations’ economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation’s fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship.
589 pages, Kindle Edition
Published November 8, 2022
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386 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews
December 12, 2022
Accidental Conflict : America, China and the Clash of False Narratives by Stephen Roach
This is an excellent book for anyone wishing to understand the past, present and potential future relationship between China and the United States. Mr. Roach in my opinion takes an un-bias view of the detailing the false narratives put forth by both US and China political leaders to justify their own policies that do not address the short comings in their own countries. As he points out correcting internal faults will cause disruption and pain to the population. Thus, instead it is better to highlight claims against the other side whether they are true or not. Of course, neither side will ever correct their own issues. I believe the main point is therefore to be informed of the propaganda put out by our own politicians so as not to be complicit in their lies.
This is an excellent book for anyone wishing to understand the past, present and potential future relationship between China and the United States. Mr. Roach in my opinion takes an un-bias view of the detailing the false narratives put forth by both US and China political leaders to justify their own policies that do not address the short comings in their own countries. As he points out correcting internal faults will cause disruption and pain to the population. Thus, instead it is better to highlight claims against the other side whether they are true or not. Of course, neither side will ever correct their own issues. I believe the main point is therefore to be informed of the propaganda put out by our own politicians so as not to be complicit in their lies.
October 5, 2023
This book by Stephen Roach deserves more than three stars (but not four).
Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives is an up to date - written in May 2022 - economic focused history of US - PRC relationship in recent years. However, given the author's background in finance the book is heavily weighted towards economic analyses. In other words, much of what we read views the relationship through an economic prism.
Within that framework, the overarching theme is that America consumes too much and the PRC saves too much. These contrasting conditions have thrown the two nations together into a codependent relationship. Dysfunctional but still codependent.
Roach provides a cogent though somewhat idealistic framework to address the current state of the relationship - near war or Cold War 2.0 - and improve it to a more cooperative and constructive relationship. Why impractical? Well, politics gets in the way of both common sense and economics on both sides.
Stephen Roach has a deep understanding of the economic linkages between these two superpowers (yup, PRC now falls into that category!) and his book manifests this knowledge. It's well researched. Moreover, Roach tries to maintain objectivity in analysing the 'strategic rivalry' between the PRC and the US - no mean feat in the current political environment.
A recommended read for China watchers, especially those with a 'political economy' bent (versus simply 'political').
Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives is an up to date - written in May 2022 - economic focused history of US - PRC relationship in recent years. However, given the author's background in finance the book is heavily weighted towards economic analyses. In other words, much of what we read views the relationship through an economic prism.
Within that framework, the overarching theme is that America consumes too much and the PRC saves too much. These contrasting conditions have thrown the two nations together into a codependent relationship. Dysfunctional but still codependent.
Roach provides a cogent though somewhat idealistic framework to address the current state of the relationship - near war or Cold War 2.0 - and improve it to a more cooperative and constructive relationship. Why impractical? Well, politics gets in the way of both common sense and economics on both sides.
Stephen Roach has a deep understanding of the economic linkages between these two superpowers (yup, PRC now falls into that category!) and his book manifests this knowledge. It's well researched. Moreover, Roach tries to maintain objectivity in analysing the 'strategic rivalry' between the PRC and the US - no mean feat in the current political environment.
A recommended read for China watchers, especially those with a 'political economy' bent (versus simply 'political').
November 25, 2022
If you’re interested in US/ China relations and geopolitics this book is for you. In a rapidly changing world that has experienced a pandemic and outbreak of war in quick succession, in both cases these two countries have reacted in very different ways. Stephen Roach gives a detailed report of how each countries false narratives came about and how they have become even more emphasised in recent years and how future unexpected events might play out.
December 17, 2022
Accidental Conflict is a mediocre book that offers a path by which the USA and Red China could avoid war. Mr. Roach relies on insignificant differences between China and America, like the high Sino personal savings rate and the low personal savings rate in the US, to craft a wholly unworkable approach to peace in the Eastern Pacific. What Mr. Roach misses is the great benefit to every one of crushing the CCP and its totalitarian leader, Xi Jinping. Moreover, the CCP is already well into its final phase of existence, so America, India, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, the UK., and Taiwan can sit quietly by and watch Communist China collapse from its weight. All the world needs to do is firmly deter Mr. Xi from launching an attack on Taiwan, and soon the world will be rid of this paper tiger.
February 10, 2025
In this book, Roach, a renowned economist, explores the escalating tensions between the United States and China. He argues that much of the conflict arises from misunderstandings and false narratives perpetuated by both sides. Roach emphasizes that the rivalry is not inevitable but rather the result of miscommunication and misaligned perceptions.
The book delves into the economic, political, and cultural factors that have contributed to the strained relationship. Roach suggests that both nations have constructed narratives that portray the other as a threat, which exacerbates the conflict. He calls for a more nuanced understanding and a shift towards constructive dialogue to avoid further escalation.
Roach also highlights the interdependence of the two economies and the global consequences of their discord. He advocates for policies that promote cooperation rather than confrontation, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and shared goals. Overall, *"Accidental Conflict"* serves as a call to action for leaders and policymakers to rethink their strategies and work towards a more stable and collaborative international environment. #wulsread
The book delves into the economic, political, and cultural factors that have contributed to the strained relationship. Roach suggests that both nations have constructed narratives that portray the other as a threat, which exacerbates the conflict. He calls for a more nuanced understanding and a shift towards constructive dialogue to avoid further escalation.
Roach also highlights the interdependence of the two economies and the global consequences of their discord. He advocates for policies that promote cooperation rather than confrontation, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and shared goals. Overall, *"Accidental Conflict"* serves as a call to action for leaders and policymakers to rethink their strategies and work towards a more stable and collaborative international environment. #wulsread
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
April 12, 2023
A Vital Survey of our Relationship with China and What We Can Do to Reverse Its Dangerous Path
Stephen Roach's "Accidental Conflict" is an important book on the most important geo-political challenge facing the US today. It mirrors my own deep concern about the risk now dividing China and the US and the paucity of trust between us.
Some of the most mind-opening facts which the book revealed were these:
1. The sanctions we have imposed against China have been of no value in impacting our budget deficit and really never could have given a lack of change in the underlying drivers of it. (e.g. our over over consumption and low rate of savings). It’s been whack-a-mole: the trade deficit which has been reduced in China has moved to other countries, most of them with higher costs, thereby hurting U.S. consumers two ways.
2. The different visions of China and the U.S. are striking and well described. That from China focusing on China’s “rejuvenation after a century of humiliation”; the U.S. dream anchored, as it’s always been, in a utopian, exceptional vision of freedom for every individual, unmarked by the recognition of the errors of our own history (which we’ve conveniently, as most countries do, forgotten...in our case, slavery, treatment of Native Americans, misbegotten wars in Iraq, Vietnam and Afghanistan).
Just as has been the case with Russia, Roach points out our failure to understand the vision and actions of China in the context of its history and culture.
3. Roach effectively underscores the nature of and danger of “false narratives.” He talks about many, but chief for me are is the US belief that our trade deficits are caused by nefarious intent by China, greatly overestimating, for example the role of IP theft (real, but not the most important factor).
On its side, China sees us out to envelope and constrain them. Just as this has become a paranoia for Putin, it’s become much the same thing with Xi. He certainly has things we’ve done to point to as support for the belief: including TPP, which intentionally excluded China, treaties between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K., providing submarines to Australia.
The major problem I have with Roach’s thesis is that I believe he overestimates the importance of resolving different savings rates between our two countries (much greater than I realized) as both the cause and the solution to our lack of trust and failure to work together. While he touches on this with clarity, I think he underplays relative to structural economic issues, the difference in world view between Xi and the current Chinese Communist Party and the prevailing view in the U.S. on both sides of the aisle which sees China as an existential enemy and is unwilling to consider the possibility that China should be and probably will be an “equal partner.”
As to how the difference in saving rates as an underlying economic structural driver of imbalanced trade will be resolved, I see little cause for hope in
Roach's analysis. I see little chance that U.S. consumers are going to change their consumption habits, thereby increasing the rate of savings. I believe the underlying causes for the high savings rates in China (insecurity and fear of aging) are going to be very slow to change as well.
I totally agree with Roach on the underlying need to rebuild trust. And I hearken to Roach’s emphasis that that has to be both institutional and personal trust.
I worry greatly that that is unlikely to occur on President Xi’s watch or in the political climate that exists in the United States. I don’t mean that as a “forever” comment. Time and history change things, just as it did as the Soviet Union fell and our relations with China for a time increased greatly.
I am a great believer in the importance of human agency as well as underlying historical and environmental circumstances. Roach mentions Zhu Rongji in several places and Deng Xiaoping. I don’t think the changes that occurred in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s would have happened if it weren’t for the legacy and actions of those individuals and others who were working for them any more than I believe the Soviet Union would have fallen as it did if it weren’t for Gorbachev and the personal trust that was established between him and Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and the Russian and U.S. Secretaries of State at the time, James Baker and Shevardnadze.
I think the best that can be hoped for right now is to:
1. Get real on what it will take to address our balance of payment issue and stop punishing ourselves and our relationships with China and other countries by self-penalizing tariffs.
2. Work with China in a quiet, professional way on items of common interest, which Roach identifies well. One is certainly public health. I personally experienced how well leaders from the Yale School of Public Health and Chinese public health officials worked together three or so years ago at the beginning of COVID.
I also think there is a common interest in an institutional framework for working together on climate change and halting nuclear proliferation.
We definitely need to work together on cyber-security and on the risk of social platforms, now amplified by AI, to do enormous damage to consumers and to our mutual relationships through false news.
This is the time for quiet diplomacy, a time to build a few personal relationships at high levels. Maybe they won’t be between Biden and Xi. Hopefully they might be between Secretaries of State, or the heads of health, communication and education ministries.
Stephen Roach's "Accidental Conflict" is an important book on the most important geo-political challenge facing the US today. It mirrors my own deep concern about the risk now dividing China and the US and the paucity of trust between us.
Some of the most mind-opening facts which the book revealed were these:
1. The sanctions we have imposed against China have been of no value in impacting our budget deficit and really never could have given a lack of change in the underlying drivers of it. (e.g. our over over consumption and low rate of savings). It’s been whack-a-mole: the trade deficit which has been reduced in China has moved to other countries, most of them with higher costs, thereby hurting U.S. consumers two ways.
2. The different visions of China and the U.S. are striking and well described. That from China focusing on China’s “rejuvenation after a century of humiliation”; the U.S. dream anchored, as it’s always been, in a utopian, exceptional vision of freedom for every individual, unmarked by the recognition of the errors of our own history (which we’ve conveniently, as most countries do, forgotten...in our case, slavery, treatment of Native Americans, misbegotten wars in Iraq, Vietnam and Afghanistan).
Just as has been the case with Russia, Roach points out our failure to understand the vision and actions of China in the context of its history and culture.
3. Roach effectively underscores the nature of and danger of “false narratives.” He talks about many, but chief for me are is the US belief that our trade deficits are caused by nefarious intent by China, greatly overestimating, for example the role of IP theft (real, but not the most important factor).
On its side, China sees us out to envelope and constrain them. Just as this has become a paranoia for Putin, it’s become much the same thing with Xi. He certainly has things we’ve done to point to as support for the belief: including TPP, which intentionally excluded China, treaties between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K., providing submarines to Australia.
The major problem I have with Roach’s thesis is that I believe he overestimates the importance of resolving different savings rates between our two countries (much greater than I realized) as both the cause and the solution to our lack of trust and failure to work together. While he touches on this with clarity, I think he underplays relative to structural economic issues, the difference in world view between Xi and the current Chinese Communist Party and the prevailing view in the U.S. on both sides of the aisle which sees China as an existential enemy and is unwilling to consider the possibility that China should be and probably will be an “equal partner.”
As to how the difference in saving rates as an underlying economic structural driver of imbalanced trade will be resolved, I see little cause for hope in
Roach's analysis. I see little chance that U.S. consumers are going to change their consumption habits, thereby increasing the rate of savings. I believe the underlying causes for the high savings rates in China (insecurity and fear of aging) are going to be very slow to change as well.
I totally agree with Roach on the underlying need to rebuild trust. And I hearken to Roach’s emphasis that that has to be both institutional and personal trust.
I worry greatly that that is unlikely to occur on President Xi’s watch or in the political climate that exists in the United States. I don’t mean that as a “forever” comment. Time and history change things, just as it did as the Soviet Union fell and our relations with China for a time increased greatly.
I am a great believer in the importance of human agency as well as underlying historical and environmental circumstances. Roach mentions Zhu Rongji in several places and Deng Xiaoping. I don’t think the changes that occurred in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s would have happened if it weren’t for the legacy and actions of those individuals and others who were working for them any more than I believe the Soviet Union would have fallen as it did if it weren’t for Gorbachev and the personal trust that was established between him and Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and the Russian and U.S. Secretaries of State at the time, James Baker and Shevardnadze.
I think the best that can be hoped for right now is to:
1. Get real on what it will take to address our balance of payment issue and stop punishing ourselves and our relationships with China and other countries by self-penalizing tariffs.
2. Work with China in a quiet, professional way on items of common interest, which Roach identifies well. One is certainly public health. I personally experienced how well leaders from the Yale School of Public Health and Chinese public health officials worked together three or so years ago at the beginning of COVID.
I also think there is a common interest in an institutional framework for working together on climate change and halting nuclear proliferation.
We definitely need to work together on cyber-security and on the risk of social platforms, now amplified by AI, to do enormous damage to consumers and to our mutual relationships through false news.
This is the time for quiet diplomacy, a time to build a few personal relationships at high levels. Maybe they won’t be between Biden and Xi. Hopefully they might be between Secretaries of State, or the heads of health, communication and education ministries.
January 2, 2025
A bit repetitive, but definitely worth reading to get a perspective on the relationship between China and America that doesn't start with the assumption that we are enemies and methodically walks through the reasons why this isn't really true and dismantles many of the narratives we Americans are fed daily about why China is a bogeyman when in fact the truth is far more interesting and less alarmist.
September 28, 2023
A pretty mediocre book on US-China relations. The analogy of the US-China relationship to a fraught interdependent romantic relationship is a cute rhetorical framing, but not very analytically useful. The claim that the interdependence is due to the US's savings deficit and China's excess savings is certainly much more serious. However, I think he's just wrong in saying that the US's trade deficit with China is due to its low savings. He keeps emphasizing that low savings leading to a current account deficit is an unshakeable accounting identity. This is true, but forgets the Econ 101 lesson that accounting identities don't tell us anything about causation. Michael Pettis has persuasively argued that low US savings aren't the driving factor for America's trade deficit and attempting to raise savings could increase debt and unemployment. All in all, it's not as if this book has nothing to offer, but there are many superior books on US-China relations that I'd prioritize over this.
June 15, 2024
A very candid assessment of the US and China's economies, but I'm not convinced about one point: the Author stressed in Ch. 10 that "the risks to the real Chinese economy—the greatest peril in a financial crisis—are limited. The demand side of the Chinese property market is well supported by the ongoing migration of rural workers to cities". I doubt that given the tide of factories closures and the overall weak economy, would there be enough jobs in the cities to support those rural workers' internal migration?
You may like to refer to "Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise" written by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell, for more about the problems of the rural population.
You may like to refer to "Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise" written by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell, for more about the problems of the rural population.
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November 30, 2022Stephen Roach ’68
Author
From the author:
The book argues that conflict escalation over the past five years — from trade war, to tech war, to a new Cold War — wouldn’t have happened were it not for the confluence of false narratives that both nations embrace about each other. The bulk of the book — some eight chapters —details these false narratives, giving equal weight to the U.S. and China. The final part of the book offers what I believe is a unique plan of conflict resolution that breaks from the current dysfunctional approach. The book was just named to the Financial Times’ best books list for 2022 (in economics).
Author
From the author:
The book argues that conflict escalation over the past five years — from trade war, to tech war, to a new Cold War — wouldn’t have happened were it not for the confluence of false narratives that both nations embrace about each other. The bulk of the book — some eight chapters —details these false narratives, giving equal weight to the U.S. and China. The final part of the book offers what I believe is a unique plan of conflict resolution that breaks from the current dysfunctional approach. The book was just named to the Financial Times’ best books list for 2022 (in economics).
June 24, 2023
Accidental conflict by Stephen roach
Diagnosis, prognosis and risk assessment of US/China relations on a grand scale. The Americans are reading it, going by the more sensible noises they are making. I hope the Chinese are. The book is a job application for the position of joint head of the US/China Secretariat. Roach says it’s empowered to advise the US government and restructure US/China relations in 4 important ways; relationship framing, convening, oversight and compliance, outreach. “The point of the secretariat is to elevate the bilateral US/China relationship to the importance it deserves “ ( and debunk the false narratives plaguing current relations). I hope he gets the job.
Diagnosis, prognosis and risk assessment of US/China relations on a grand scale. The Americans are reading it, going by the more sensible noises they are making. I hope the Chinese are. The book is a job application for the position of joint head of the US/China Secretariat. Roach says it’s empowered to advise the US government and restructure US/China relations in 4 important ways; relationship framing, convening, oversight and compliance, outreach. “The point of the secretariat is to elevate the bilateral US/China relationship to the importance it deserves “ ( and debunk the false narratives plaguing current relations). I hope he gets the job.
November 7, 2024
After doing an MBA, exchange in Shanghai and taking the class of “Chinese Economy” where the professor recommended that book - I read it!
I will give 5 star review to the ideas and knowledge in the book but 3 star for the writing style of the author as he keeps repeating and going in unnecessary circles, lots of redundancies.
I will give 5 star review to the ideas and knowledge in the book but 3 star for the writing style of the author as he keeps repeating and going in unnecessary circles, lots of redundancies.
Want to read
May 1, 2022
February 1, 2023
An impartial take of the US-China relationship, considering recent developments like Covid-19 and the Ukraine war.
March 25, 2023
I am not at all a China hawk - as someone who has taken a deep interest in the geopolitics of strategic conflict as well as Chinese history and culture, I respect the idea that we should seek to understand each other to avoid hysterical aggression.
However, I do think too much stock is put into the idea of misunderstanding here; realpolitik suggests that there are indeed genuine reasons for conflict. We should avoid hysteria, but neither should we blindfold ourselves.
However, I do think too much stock is put into the idea of misunderstanding here; realpolitik suggests that there are indeed genuine reasons for conflict. We should avoid hysteria, but neither should we blindfold ourselves.
January 16, 2025
With too much left-wing ideology.
Displaying 1 - 17 of 17 reviews