So, here's a book whose main purpose is to allow Joe Maddon, one of the more colorful and successful managers in baseball, to make the case for "gut thinking" and intangibles over slavish devotion to analytics in the game. Well, friends, if "The Book of Joe" is the best case for gut thinking, we might as well expect the analytics department to put on uniforms and take a seat in the dugout itself.
There is lots of breakdown from Maddon on the thought process behind his gut decisions. But they never work! Like Maddon proudly saying how he went against the grain by using the lefty JP Howell to face Albert Pujols. OK, cool -- but, in fact, Pujols went 1-for-2 lifetime off Howell, with a HR. Of the time he asked Javier Baez to bunt with 2 strikes in Game 7 of the World Series, Maddon can barely offer a rationalization at all (basically, the Ghost of Don Zimmer told him to do it). And yet, on this and the less insane decisions, his takeaways are, essentially, "It would have worked, if only...." and "I'm not ruled by analytics, that was all me, baby!" Great.
The book itself is something of a chimera. It seems to have started out as a (thin) first-hand account, which is now delivered in long quoted passages that Verducci sandwiches with lite additional reporting and lessons from the world of behavioral science. The whole thing is a bit of a hairy mess, haphazardly organized and full of blatant contradictions, logical malpractice and anecdotes connected by the merest thread to the points they’re trying to make. A book and a puzzle in one!
But even with all that, "The Book of Joe" is worth a read. For one, this is a story about how winning ends. A team's luck runs out, they lose their focus, there's too much meddling -- determining exactly what went wrong always remains just out of reach. The beauty is we can never know. (Well, it's clear in Maddon's mind...) The other reason to finish "The Book of Joe" is to understand how thin the line of defense is against a final analytic takeover of the game. When, one day, a baseball game unfolds primarily at a computer screen, with a team of quants making decisions in real-time and robot umpires calling the balls and strikes, "The Book of Joe" will be a valuable relic to understand how we arrived there.