The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity

by Peter Atwater

A groundbreaking framework for making better decisions by understanding – and mastering – confidence.

What does our desire for certainty and control have to do with our decision-making? According to behavioral economics pioneer Peter Atwater, the answer is everything. 

In The Confidence Map , Atwater explores the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for.

Using compelling stories from the past and present, Atwater shows readers how to apply the same tools he teaches the world’s leading institutional investors, corporations, and policymakers to help them make sense of complex situations and optimize strategy.

You will
• How psychological distance consistently affects the choices we make
• Why "Me-Here-Now" decision-making is such a powerful force
• What happens at confidence peaks that leads to our downfall
• The five ways we respond to extreme vulnerability
• When consumers' feelings of certainty and control - not price - drive demand 

The Confidence Map is a book about why we do what we do, where we can and cannot trust our natural instincts, and how we can make sense of a world that too often feels senseless. 

Whether you’re investing in technology stocks, designing menu items for a fast-food franchise, or running an emergency room, Atwater offers an all-weather guide to avoid psychological traps, spot opportunities, and navigate the road ahead with clarity and purpose.

Genres: Psychology, Economics, Nonfiction, Leadership

336 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2023

Reviews

[Janay Anderson · Rating 3 out of 5]

I liked the framework but still left unclear on how to specifically use this tool to “predict” what will happen or how to clearly assess a group’s level of confidence and what could happen based on the collective choices of that group. Stories > facts in how we decide what actions to take; assess your confidence in a particular outcome using percentages to see where your feelings may be misguiding your perception of reality. Some of this was helpful but I think thinking in bets (a book he references a few times) was more easy to grasp for some reason. His focus was more on collective impact of stories we believe as a group which was a nice perspective shift (I’m beginning to hate self help that takes social consciousness or systemic causes out of the equation). A great read but might make more sense to me over time.

[Kirsten T]

A book centered on business decisions and how our decisions are affected by where we are on the confidence map. The material was intuitive, but fascinating to think about in the framework Atwater provided. I think a more personal analysis of this framework would be interesting too, as well as thinking of this framework in terms of personal resilience and belief in a higher power.

The book talked about Covid a lot. I liked that there was a shared experience we could think of for the examples, but I do wonder if this makes his book harder to relate to in a shorter amount of time.

[Natalie · Rating 3 out of 5]

An ok audiobook. Lots of graphs being called on. Best thing was the conclusion. If you listen or read just that, you save some time.

[Randall Hartman · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author spoke at a conference I hosted and expounded the theme of his book. His presentation was excellent. Overall, I think the thesis of his book is a good diagnostic for reasons why we feel and respond in certain ways. However, the prescription of doing what’s necessary to get yourself back in the comfort zone are secular, not biblical. So I recommend it (other than the one crude expression that unfortunately seems to resonate with our culture) for examining what circumstances may lead you to feel as you do.

[Serhii Kushchenko · Rating 3 out of 5]

In my view, this book discusses well-known and basic ideas. The promises made by its blurb and other reader reviews turned out to be exaggerated. However, I already have some background in behavioral economics and trading.

[Prasha Sarwate · Rating 4 out of 5]

First full book after the baby. Read 90% on a plane ride and enjoyed it alot. I tired reading “Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow” but it was too technical for me, the confidence gap helped me get the concept of cognitive ease that is big part of Kahnman’s work.

[Wendy Rohm · Rating 5 out of 5]

I've already read this book because I am Peter's literary agent, and will be published this summer by Penguin Portfolio books.

[JV · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good common sense...most of it I already knew but occasionally forget.

[Sam Steiner · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book has given me insight and language to help me further understand a lot of decision making in my life as well as a better understanding of how to analyze decisions made by others