The Emerging Democratic Majority

by John B. Judis, Ruy Teixeira

Forecasts a progressive era which is indicated by a rise of a diverse post-industrial society and offers opinions on such topics as health care and the environment.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Political Science, History

213 pages, Hardcover

First published August 27, 2002

About the author

John B. Judis is an American journalist. Born in Chicago he attended Amherst College and received B.A. and M.A. degrees in Philosophy from the University of California at Berkeley. He is a senior editor at The New Republic and a contributing editor to The American Prospect.

A founding editor of Socialist Revolution (now Socialist Review) in 1969 and of the East Bay Voice in the 1970s, Judis started reporting from Washington in 1982, when he became a founding editor and Washington correspondent for In These Times, a democratic-socialist weekly magazine.

He has also written for GQ, Foreign Affairs, Mother Jones, The New York Times Magazine, and The Washington Post.

In 2002, he published a book (co-written with political scientist Ruy Teixeira) arguing that Democrats would retake control of American politics, thanks in part to growing support from minorities and well-educated professionals. The title, The Emerging Democratic Majority, was a deliberate echo of Kevin Phillips' 1969 classic, The Emerging Republican Majority. The book was named one of the year's best by The Economist magazine.

Reviews

[The American Conservative]

'Judis and Teixeira are offering their electoral prediction and arguing that the Democrats, really the left-wing of the Democratic Party, will achieve national dominance in the decades ahead. Although written with a transparent ideological goal, this work is as worthy of consideration as that of Phillips, to whom the authors make numerous respectful references.'

Read the full review, "Left Demography," on our website:
http://www.theamericanconservative.co...

[Debbie is on Storygraph · Rating 4 out of 5]

The authors studied the current demographics of the United States and argued that the Democratic Party will be a majority of the voting population, and therefore primed to take on a majority in the Congress. I'm not sure if I completely bought their argument but I can definitely see a Democratic majority emerging in the next decade.

[Joseph · Rating 3 out of 5]

An influential and historically useful statement of a flawed and ultimately damaging perspective, this book argues that the rise of "post-industrial" cities guarantees future success for the Democratic Party, as the tech workers, artists, and designers central to the economies of these places will lead the way for the masses to vote blue. The Achilles' heel of the analysis is the authors' assumption that lower-wage, nonprofessional service workers of all races will line up behind the professionals, and they fatefully predict that the whole Midwest will remain more or less faithful to the Democrats. The fraying of the nonprofessional base of the party has, of course, dealt a death blow to this whole story, leading to the double election of Donald Trump.

One might think that the steady degradation of conditions for those on the lower rungs of the "post-industrial" labor market is the cause of all this -- what reason do they have to sign up for the Democrats' glowing vision of post-industrial prosperity if the median wage for those with only a high school diploma has fallen about 10% since 1990? But as I understand it, these authors have argued in a new book from last year ("Where Have All the Democrats Gone?") that it is the alleged cultural extremism and wokeness of the party that has done them in -- an amusing claim, since the growth of cultural radicalism in liberal cities was the result, rather than the cause, of Trump's initial 2016 victory, and every mainstream Democrat with a national profile has done their absolute best to contain its influence when election season rolls around.

I'm no fan of most of what passes for "wokeness" these days, but these authors are clearly wrong about what's wrong with it. Like most left-neoliberals of their ilk, they believe that "the '60s went too far" and the Democrats have now figured out the perfect formula to salvage what was best from it -- Black identity without Black militancy and "rioting"; sexual freedom but with respect for the "traditional family"; a hedonistic attitude that does not threaten order and morality. In other words they see no real problem with the continuation of racial segregation, sexual oppression, and the growth of mass incarceration and the surveillance state. I personally do, but I guess that is why I am not a Democratic strategist with big book deals.

(Another interesting flaw with the authors' analysis is their assumption that professionals vote for Democrats because they view "the free market" as a damper on their ability to be creative and express themselves, which supposedly is what professionals love to do. Could it perhaps be instead that they like the government to support investment because they can count on an expanding labor market to support their salary growth? But I digress!)

[Michael Linton · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was fascinating to read as the prediction did not come true. This was written in 2002 and it did cover the history of the elections from the 80's through the 90's which was interesting and useful. The next book I'm reading is by the same authors titled: "Where have all the Democrats gone?"

[Leon Sit · Rating 3 out of 5]

Just like it's namesake, it fails to recognize brewing trends on the horizon, but in its time it foresaw the development of the Obama coalition, which sort of continues to this day.

[Jordan Lee · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting insights but basement troglodytes exist

[OGEE Substack · Rating 4 out of 5]

I'm still waiting for everything they claim is going to happen in this book to happen. It's happening, but WAY more slowly than they ever thought it would. And the 2020 election results - which saw Trump increase his margins of support among both African-American and Latinx voters - show us that the Democrats can't take for granted that changing demographics are going to do all of their electoral work for them.

Unfortunately, the Republicans are an incredibly crafty bunch, like pubic lice that just won't fucking quit and eventually cause you to shave off all of your pubes. The Republicans will never go away and the Democrats will always go through little tin-eared spells where they campaign like morons and let the evil guys win the day. The push-and-pull of American democracy. ABOLISH THE FILIBUSTER, ADMIT DC AND PR AS STATES, AND PACK THE EFFING SUPREME COURT, baby!

[Steve Kierstead]

I think they make a convincing case. Demographics are moving the the Democrats' direction (and the fact that the GOP is wedded to the politics of resentment against the groups that are becoming a larger part of the electorate: professionals, women and minorities).

[Brian · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interestingly enough, the authors' projections started to be realized in the 2006 congressional election and could be shown accurate as America moves toward 2008, 2010, and 2012.

[Chris · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really helpful breakdown of the voting trends over the last thirty years and how they have been moving to the election results of Nov. 2008.

[Phil · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the few cases where the authors' analysis became more accurate with time.

[Bradford · Rating 4 out of 5]

They were about 6 years off from their completely prescient analysis.

[Aloysius · Rating 3 out of 5]

A nice treatise presaging the Obama coalition by about... 6 years. Not bad. Not bad at all.