Fumbling the Future: How Xerox Invented, then Ignored, the First Personal Computer

by Douglas K. Smith, Robert C. Alexander

Ask consumers and users what names they associate with the multibillion dollar personal computer market, and they will answer IBM, Apple, Tandy, or Lotus. The more knowledgable of them will add the likes of Microsoft, Ashton-Tate, Compaq, and Borland. But no one will say Xerox. Fifteen years after it invented personal computing, Xerox still means "copy."

More than anything, Fumbling the Future is a tale of human beings whose talents, hopes, fears, habits, and prejudices determine the fate of our largest organizations and of our best ideas. In an era in which technological creativity and economic change are so critical to the competitiveness of the American economy, Fumbling the Future is a parable for our times.

Genres: Business, History, Technology, Nonfiction, Computer Science, Computers, Nerd

276 pages, Paperback

First published September 1, 1988

Reviews

[Paul Weinstein · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nowadays, just about every businessperson has heard the cautionary tale of Xerox. In the 1970s, Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) invented the modern office. Computing firsts at PARC included the personal computer, the graphical user interface with the desktop paradigm and “what you see is what you get” (WYSIWYG) word processing, the laser printer, local aera networking (Ethernet) and object-oriented programming. Yet, by the 1980s Xerox had failed to successfully bring most of its inventions to market.

PARC’s vision of the future was so complete that in a 1995 interview Steve Jobs said of his legendary visit [1], “they showed me really three things, but I was so blinded by the first … which was the graphical user interface” that he didn’t even recognize the importance of everything else. [2]

But how exactly did Xerox become the company to so toughly invent the office of the future only to lose sight of that vision and watch other companies; Apple and Microsoft to name just two, deliver it instead?

That’s the story of Fumbling the Future: How Xerox Invented, then Ignored the First Personal Computer. Based on initial research done by co-author Robert C. Alexander, the book is a business management examination of Xerox that includes:

* How the Haloid Company (Xerox) became the first to market xerography, which along with a robust sales & pricing strategy made Xerox very profitable

* That Xerox leadership recognized the correct business strategy to diversify beyond xerography

* That the culture and executive leadership focus on a transformative diversification strategy was lacking resulting in several key errors:

* Mismanagement of SDS, Xerox’s initial computer acquisition

* Early success in xerography resulted in a ‘can’t lose’ & ‘not invented here’ attitudes among different Xerox divisions

* The void of a united corporate culture resulted in a mismatch of cultures between Xerox senior leadership, PARC and other divisions, such as SDS

* Misreading of market trends and onerous product development processes for digital and xerography product lines created expensive product miscues

While the book places the technical innovations in context, it is not a dive deep into the strengths and weaknesses of the technical work done by the Xerox PARC team. In other words, the assumption that is central to this book (and to the tale at large, that Xerox management blundered so completely) is that Xerox’s initial implementation of this new computing paradigm could stand on its own in the marketplace. This conceit assumes that Apple, Microsoft and others simply xeroxed PARC’s work wholesale. However, the failure of Apple’s Lisa in 1983 and late success with the Macintosh along with Microsoft’s lack of traction with Windows in the workplace until Windows for Workgroups (v3.11) in 1992 suggests that additional development, refinement and market evolution was still necessary for Xerox’s office of the future to finally take hold.

Then again, the influx of Xerox ideas and personnel to Apple, the failure of the Lisa and the death knell of Apple post Steve Jobs’ ousting in 1985 suggests that perhaps Apple copied too much of Xerox.

[Ryan · Rating 4 out of 5]

great story but the number of characters and writing style made it tough to follow at times.

[Meadhbh · Rating 4 out of 5]

I wouldn't have thought a book about copiers and an organization that sold them would be so interesting.

I picked up this book because I thought it would focus on PARC, the legendary Xerox research center in Palo Alto. PARC essentially invented or greatly refined modern personal computing: GUIs & WYSIAYG, laser printers, ethernet, Interpress (the precursor to PostScript and PDF).

But it was really an investigation into a highly successful organization that grew too fast, developed a bizarre culture and waited until the last possible moment to avoid large-scale business disaster.

The text details the hirings, firings and transfers of notable Xerox managers and individual contributors in the 70s. It also describes how being a successful copier company did not set them up for understanding the marketplace for office equipment in the 80s. In the same way the IBM organization was optimized for mainframe sales, service and support in 1981 and was overwhelmed by the success of it's PC product line, Xerox was optimized to sell a bunch of large copiers to big companies. When it invented "Personal Distributed Computing" in the 70s, it did not (as an organization) even understand what it was looking at. "How does this Personal Computer thing make copies?" their management would say. "Why aren't you marketing this?" Steve Jobs commented.

Worth a read and it confirms my hypothesis that companies that get too successful too fast from a single product (or product line) often optimize their organizations to favor existing products instead of near-future needs.

[Scott Holstad · Rating 5 out of 5]

I think this is an excellent overview of how Xerox created the first personal computer in 1973 and then did absolutely nothing with it, due to unbelievable incompetence, thus losing out on the biggest market share any company has probably ever seen and billions of dollars. It supplements Dealers of Lightning, which is an excellent book on Xerox PARC, the research facility behind the creation of the computer, and gives a behind the scenes look from the top level down of the company as a whole. Thus, I think the two books go well together, hand in hand. By 1973, PARC had created a system they called EARS (Ethernet, Alto, Research character generator, Scanned laser output). So, they invented ethernet, the PC (the Alto), the mouse, and the laser printer. They also produced the first bit mapped images on the first GUI displays, some of the first and easiest programming languages, the first easy to use text editor, and a host of other things. And all Xerox management did was pretend they didn't exist. Cause Xerox Sold Copiers!!! What the hell were computers anyway? They were just glorified word processors for secretaries. (Wouldn't that have given them enough business to start producing them?) By the time 1980 rolled around, it became clear that other companies were eating them for lunch and their market share had plummeted, and IBM was rumored to be investing in their own PC, so Xerox finally got serious. With the Star. Created by a group that was separate from PARC, Xerox's embarrassment. When the Star was released, it cost about $12,000 and needed a $30,000 printer and God knows what else. And it wouldn't run anyone else's software. Meanwhile all of these little Japanese companies were creating cheap PCs with standardized parts that could run anyone's software and use anyone's parts. The Star was a disaster. Xerox was never the same. I seriously hope the morons at the top learned their lesson. Finally, I noticed this book was published in 1999, although first published in 1988 by iUniverse, which is a self publishing company. I have no idea why these authors self published. In my opinion, this book is good enough for a traditional publisher to have snapped up and published. Maybe they were just impatient, I don't know. Regardless, it was a good book and certainly recommended for anyone interested in learning about the interesting history behind the first personal computer.

[Victor · Rating 4 out of 5]

A great management retrospective, an X ray into the decisions and managerial blunders that may have led to the missed opportunity. It is easy to make decisions on hindsight, but that does not discount the lessons learnt from this. That both individual contributor and manager plays a significant role in the success of the company, and that we should be careful of who we hire, their personality and bias-ness. Also structuring the team such that there's accountability and that voices are heard.

Overall many lessons to be learnt. The author does not spell them out, but gives and exposition of what happened and let us identify the lessons or mistakes ourselves.

[Keerthan · Rating 4 out of 5]

3.5/5
An interesting look into the pitfalls of too quick an ascension, significant mismanagement, and an office culture teeming with overconfidence and inertia. The fact that different components of the organization shared a mutual passionate dislike didn't help either.
At times, I found the office politics and personal feuds to be more detailed than necessary. The book also hosts a large number of characters, and focuses mostly on the (mis)management, than the technical innovations. Nonetheless, there were several takeaways, and the book does form a useful and interesting case study.

[Zeenat · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fantastic case study of how utilizing pure financial cost-benefit analysis ruins the risk -reward factors of revolutionary technology! Probably a book focused more for entrepreneurs in the tech world - especially us nerds that worked at PARC!

[Allen · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was full of information and quotes from employees at Xerox during the 70s-80s. I was waiting for the famous visit from Steve Jobs and at the end filly got to it. It was just a paragraph 🫤.

Mostly the first 1/3rd of the book really held my interest as it was hitting on all the major historical discoveries leading to copiers and computers that we use today. The internal politics at Xerox was too detailed and mostly would interest past employees or corporate leaders on what not to do.

It proved that some companies that are highly successful at producing one line of products, my be too timid to branch out in a new path, even after investing millions.

[Rogue Reader · Rating 3 out of 5]

I remember the sequence of this technology and the excitement of each advancement. In retrospect, it's difficult to understand how Xerox was not able to bring the personal computer to market given the market penetration, sales staff, and resources. It's that last bit, the cup to the lip, where they slipped.

[Bryan Smith · Rating 3 out of 5]

Pretty interesting understanding how Xerox got in the PC business, and learning about PARC, but mostly a book about corporate (mis)management and I just reached a point where I didn’t want to pick it back up.

[David T Leimbach · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think this book could have been 50% shorter. I more wanted to learn the lessons of missed opportunities but I’m not sure I needed the detail delivered to get there. Then again I was searching for wisdom, not a memoir.

[Dalen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Yes, this book is a little old. Yes, it is highly about devious and behaviors in a large company. But, I found it interesting. Having worked in a large company all my career, I could relate to many things in this book.

[Tim Dean-smith · Rating 5 out of 5]

excellent

Very well written and fascinating. Xerox really bungled it. I don’t know why i have to write twenty words here.

[Randall G · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very interesting book. Too much detail and too many characters. Editing was terrible.

[Dan Cohen · Rating 3 out of 5]

I've been meaning to read this book for 20 years and finally got around to getting hold of a copy and reading it. It provides a good high-level overview of the story of Xerox's ground-breaking research at PARC into some of the most important ideas and technologies that eventually made up the personal computer. However, the book mainly focusses on the management of Xerox and how they failed to take advantage of the huge lead they built in this area. Written by 2 management consultants, the book dissects Xerox's management failures over many years and paints some unflattering portraits of the managers involved.

The book is quite short and easily read, and the technical detail is very thin, so I'm now reading "Dealers of Lightning" to bulk out my understanding - for someone interested in the technology "Dealers of Lightning" is probably the better bet. But "Fumbling the Future" is certainly worth reading anyway, especially if the reader's interest is focussed on the management lessons rather than the technological history.

[Frank · Rating 4 out of 5]

Xerox hired the best and brightest computer guys in the early 1970s. In 1973 they produced the Alto, a personal computer with bitmap graphic display & mouse; ethernet local area networking; and a laser printer. They called the system EARS (Ethernet, Alto, Research character generator, Scanned laser output). That’s right, they invented the PC, ethernet, the mouse, and the laser printer. Corporate management thought they were nuts and ignored it. This book describes in sweet detail the origin of modern computing that isn’t common knowledge.

[Greg · Rating 4 out of 5]

I read this because the CEO of my company was in it. It is an interesting story about the failures of Xerox to capitalize on the computer revolution, ultimately to concede it to Apple, IBM, and Sun. It also showed how the culture of Silicon Valley was set by Xerox PARC, where so many future technology greats worked and eventually left to start their own companies (like Bob Metcalfe).

[Dozo · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fumbling the Future is the story of how Xerox created key tenants of modern computing but then due to internal politics failed to commercialise it. I found the book contained a lot of interesting research and commercial wisdom written in an accessible style, mixing interviews with the author's own commentary. Highly recommended.

[Pablo Vicente Vicente · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good resume about Xerox and her policy about innovation and all enterprise stuff. It's a good read to know about them and the first PC, "The alto"

[Blisscast · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you are interested in Xerox and its printers and computers, definitely give it a read.