Forecast

by Stephan Faris

While reporting just outside of Darfur, Stephan Faris discovered that climate change was at the root of that conflict, and began to wonder what current and impending-and largely unanticipated-crises such changes have in store for the world. Forecast provides the answers. Global warming will spur the spread of many diseases. Italy has already experienced its first climate-change epidemic of a tropical disease, and malaria is gaining ground in Africa. The warming world will shift huge populations and potentially redraw political alliances around the globe, driving environmentalists into the hands of anti-immigrant groups. America-s coasts are already more difficult places to live as increasing insurance rates make the Gulf Coast and other gorgeous spots prohibitively expensive. Crops will fail in previously lush places and thrive in some formerly barren zones, altering huge industries and remaking traditions. Water scarcity in India and Pakistan have the potential to inflame the conflict in Kashmir to unprecedented levels and draw the United States into the troubles there, and elsewhere. Told through the narratives of current, past, and future events, the result of astonishingly wide travel and reporting, Forecast is a powerful, gracefully written, eye-opening account of this most urgent issue and how it has altered and will alter our world.

Genres: Science, History

268 pages

First published December 23, 2008

Reviews

[Ptrav · Rating 2 out of 5]

The author terribly fails to see the forest behind his trees.

An excellent example of Haiti and Dominican Republic in the text. Yes, both countries occupy the same island and have about the same population, but:

Haiti has the land mass of 27,750 square km, Dominican Republic - 48,671.

In 2008, the population of Haiti and D.R. was 9.71 and 9.35 million respectively. By some primary school arithmetic, this was 2860 and 5200 square meters per person, or 0.71 and 1.28 acres (including all available land: arable, town(slum), industrial, landfills, etc.) Can you feed a person from 0.71 acre (including landfills)? Possible, but difficult.

The situation in 2016:
Haiti: population of 11.1 million and 0.61 acre of land per person.
D.R.: population of 10.5 million and 1.15 acre of land per person.

Barring the UN intervention, by 2030 the deforestation in Dominican Republic will be no different from Haiti.

Despite the author desperately wants the reader to believe the opposite, deforestation and soil erosion have nothing to do with the global climate change, only with overpopulation and intensive farming.

[James · Rating 5 out of 5]

Another good reference to acquaint readers with some of the many current and probable future impacts of climate change. The author does a solid job, for example, of showing how the ongoing war and tragedy in the Darfur region of the Sudan is usually mis-portrayed as based on ethnicity and religion, when in fact it's a drought-driven conflict between stationary farmers and nomadic livestock herders - the farmers' land used to be productive enough that they had no objection to the herders driving their livestock through the farm regions, but due to the chronic drought, crops are now so scanty that every bit of plant matter that livestock eat or trample is taking food from the mouths of farmers and their families.

This is one among many excellent books in what is becoming a crowded field - I'd recommend it for either someone who's starting to dig into this topic or a reader who, like me, is trying to get as full a grasp of it as possible.

[cartercam · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book had some great points to consider about climate change, and connected some dots I wouldn't have thought to connect on my own. It also motivated me to look up some of the issues he mentions to check in on their status today (the book was published in 2008). It held up well for being 6 years old! It was written in an approachable voice, and did an excellent job of keeping political rhetoric out of the conversation. Though it is a relatively short book, it did take me a while to finish since it wasn't something I found myself excited to read. Probably because climate change is depressing.

[June · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fun look at a train wreck! A short overview of how really bad things are going to get thanks to global warming. You know the one thing that you can do that actually would have an impact on climate change? DON'T HAVE CHILDREN. It's that simple. Forget about the reusable shopping bags and the hybrids. DON'T HAVE CHILDREN.

[Jeremy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Addressing many social, economical, and political conflicts, Faris has found a common underlying cause, which is global climate change. He did his homework on several diverse situations around the globe and presented the reader with the background as to how climate change is having direct impacts on todays world. Evidences of past fluctuations in Earths climate support the basis for how current trends are contributing to mass migrations, altered ecosystem conditions, diminishing crop yeilds, and violent confrontations over water rights. This book is very well written and investigated. I would recommend it to anyone interested in understanding the immediate and potential impacts of climate change.

[Jung · Rating 1 out of 5]

A book that takes the angle that climate change is happening as we speak and looks to see the effects of it, in exploding insurance rates in Louisiana and Florida, the effects of deforestation in spreading malaria in Brazil etc.

Describes Darfur as a climate crisis as that area dries out and suffers through droughts where it can’t sustain the farmers and the nomadic herdsman as it did for hundreds of years.

A very interesting tidbit where he cites research done correlating the rise and fall of ruling dynasties in China to temperature changes of 2 degrees Celsius in the region.

The writing is choppy and inelegant compared with “Notes of a Catastrophe” by Kolbert, the science and analysis is washed over in favor of anecdotal sketches. Mediocre book.