The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050

by Joel Kotkin

Visionary social thinker Joel Kotkin looks ahead to America in 2050, revealing how the addition of one hundred million Americans by midcentury will transform how we all live, work, and prosper.

In stark contrast to the rest of the world's advanced nations, the United States is growing at a record rate and, according to census projections, will be home to four hundred million Americans by 2050. This projected rise in population is the strongest indicator of our long-term economic strength, Joel Kotkin believes, and will make us more diverse and more competitive than any nation on earth.

Drawing on prodigious research, firsthand reportage, and historical analysis, The Next Hundred Million reveals how this unprecedented growth will take physical shape and change the face of America. The majority of the additional hundred million Americans will find their homes in suburbia, though the suburbs of tomorrow will not resemble the Levittowns of the 1950s or the sprawling exurbs of the late twentieth century. The suburbs of the twenty-first century will be less reliant on major cities for jobs and other amenities and, as a result, more energy efficient. Suburbs will also be the melting pots of the future as more and more immigrants opt for dispersed living over crowded inner cities and the majority in the United States becomes nonwhite by 2050.

In coming decades, urbanites will flock in far greater numbers to affordable, vast, and autoreliant metropolitan areas-such as Houston, Phoenix, and Las Vegas-than to glamorous but expensive industrial cities, such as New York and Chicago. Kotkin also foresees that the twenty-first century will be marked by a resurgence of the American heartland, far less isolated in the digital era and a crucial source of renewable fuels and real estate for a growing population. But in both big cities and small towns across the country, we will see what Kotkin calls "the new localism"-a greater emphasis on family ties and local community, enabled by online networks and the increasing numbers of Americans working from home.

The Next Hundred Million provides a vivid snapshot of America in 2050 by focusing not on power brokers, policy disputes, or abstract trends, but rather on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society-families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities, Kotkin argues, that the American future rests.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Cultural, Sociology, Economics

308 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2010

About the author

Described by the New York Times as “America’s uber-geographer,” Joel Kotkin is an internationally-recognized authority on global, economic, political and social trends.

Reviews

[Jason · Rating 3 out of 5]

If you think the following 2 statements are correct, then read to the end.

1. Did you have a stinking suspicion that the demographic of 'Sex in the City' was way off the mark, and as a result, couldn't determine exactly what was wrong, but whatever it was, it was egregious and you didn't like the show?
2. Did you grow up in suburbia, and despite the flak thrown by urban planners, environmentalists, economists, architects, and politicians about the rapaciousness of sprawl, you really liked where you grew up and see it as a viable location for retirement?

The Next Hundred Million is a futurist's prediction of what America's populated areas may look like in the year 2050 as our population reaches 400 million. Joel Kotkin extrapolates his discussion based on urban and suburban demographic trends. This is not a clarion call to action. However, it is part of a vanguard of voices, just beginning to be heard, that take the opposite view of urban sprawl made popular over the last 30 years--views that declare suburbia is ugly, unsustainable, environmentally unfriendly, culturally isolating, and the future ghettos of America. This vanguard believes that suburban areas, on the contrary, are great multi-ethnic sponges, linked together like an archipelago, that will serve as teeming, vibrant, and multi-class repositories of inevitable population growth.

I was a Malthusian before I knew what that meant. I still think geometric population growth--along with poor politics--is the seed of many of the problems today (poverty, famine, pestilence). Kotkin hasn't changed my mind about that. However, his book is a good counterbalance to the Thomas Friedmans of the world who see nothing but pernicious trends befalling America and causing her downfall in the next 40 years, especially against burgeoning countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries). Kotkin, and a growing number of scientists, are declaring that the next 40 years will be the strongest ever for America, her politics, her people, her economics. Suburbia, that resevoir of the metropolitan diaspora, has been blamed--rightfully so--for many things related to sprawl, increased energy consumption, traffic, stress, depression, the break-up of the nuclear family, and the whole rainbow of social problems. But in the future, Kotkin declares, suburbia is the only reasonable place for the next 100 million to thrive.

Kotkin's writing is the collation of hundreds of references. Published in Jan 2010, he uses facts and statistics as recent as late 2009, so the book is a current snapshot of the US. You can disagree with some of his extrapolations, but you can't argue that he didn't use sources. Here's a breakout of references per chapter, title, and the chapter length:
Ch 1 400 Million Americans 30 pg, 78 references
Ch 2 The Cities of Aspiration 38 pg, 109 references
Ch 3 The Archipelago of Villages 36 pg, 125 references
Ch 4 The Resurgent Heartland 34 pg, 98 references
Ch 5 Post-Ethnic America 32 pg, 118 references
Ch 6 The 21st Century Community 38 pg, 115 references
Ch 7 America in 2050 36 pg, 122 references
That's almost 800 references, some current, some historical, but a damn good cross section of demographic data. As America has always overcome its problems, has always defeated its threats, has always outlasted its downturns, and has always reinvented itself, I am beginning to believe that Kotkin is right about America over the next 40 years. I'm starting to disbelieve the soothsayers who claim the sky is falling over America.

Population bomb, global warming, AIDS, terrorism, the Cold War, global recession, H1N1--each bad, but never as bad as initially predicted by those trying to influence public policy. America has a unique and consistent way of finding solutions and growing stronger as a result. The rust belt will likely recover, racial issues will become less prominent with each successive generation, Mexican immigration will never threaten the culture of being American, global warming will not raise the sea level by 3 feet in 2080. The older I get, the more I realize I should take a middling position on controversial issues. My college revolutionary days are long behind.

***Spoiler Alert***Here's what I learned:
- Large inner cities are growing much more slowly than their suburbs, some even with negative growth
- The percentage of money spent on family real estate is magnitudes of order greater in non-metro areas than downtown
- Population in cities like NY, Chicago, LA, Philly may have peaked
- America is undergoing a 'de-clustering' of economic power, from traditional locations to the suburbs
- The Heartland is the new 'brain belt;' locations that attract post-education specialists, close to large universities, low real estate prices, good uncrowded schools, availability of reliable bandwidth, access to open spaces
- Immigrants--not especially whites--make up a growing percentage of suburbia, and by 2050 will be the dominant suburban dwellers
- 'On-shoring' is growing rapidly in the Heartland; US companies are reacting to growing resentment of English speakers calling help lines overseas
- With the power of telecommunications, tech companies can better recruit to the Heartland
- Boise real estate is 1/4 the cost of San Francisco
- America, better than any other country, absorbs ethnicity into its mainstream, rather than alienating it; we have no exclusionary ghettos like France, Germany, Britain
- The recession beginning in 2007 will cause momentary blips of demographic regression, but the pre-Bust trends will reassert themselves
- It's harder to define 'turf' in suburbia; there is a growing ethnic mix; there is less balkanization than you find in the inner city
- Late 1990s, the % of people over 5 who didn't speak English was 1/4 of a century earlier; in other words, more people speak English in America, by percentage, than at any other time in our past, and this trend will increase, not decrease, as the 3rd and 4th immigrant generations age
- Bi-lingualism is hard to maintain because English is so highly regarded economically
- 2000-2007, the number of people declaring themselves of mixed race heritage jumped 33%
- 1970s, 1 in 5 Americans moved annually; 2008, barely 1 in 10 moved annually; the lowest since 1950s
- Single 30-something white women with a college degree have a 75% chance of marrying
- Families are thriving (made more so by recent economic necessity); young adults staying with parents longer; extended families are returning to the nuclear family
- Overemphasis in media and academia about the demerits of suburban living: planners, architects, industrialists, scientists, environmentalists
- Prevailing intellectual narrative in last 40 years has suggested America's eventual decline; however, America, in contrast to other countries, has never been stronger and will probably continue to confound the nay-sayers

Kotkin is not all positive about the future. He does illustrate some of the problems in America: moving away from a manufacturing and technology base toward more and more service economy is unsustainable with another 100 million on our land; dependence on foreign oil; climate change; green building; needful improvements for infrastructure, over reliance on financial services, etc. However, the book is geared mainly to champion America's ability to always overcome social, cultural and financial problems.

So, back to the 2 questions at the outset. One, 'Sex and the City' is so demographically improbable that I intuitively withdrew from the premise. 4 attractive, urban, white, educated women in their mid- to late-30s with no marriage potential, season after crappy season. Two, suburbia is here to stay, and, defying the postulates of the last 30 years, will most likely be the most sought after area to raise a family.

3 stars only. Kotkin has written several books of this subject matter, and The Next Hundred Million is nothing more than a smoothed presentation of a lot of data. I think he's also trying to get ahead of the 2010 census, which normally provides ample material for books about demographic trends and interested citizens that find this topic especially interesting about every 10 years.

New word: caudillo

[Pam · Rating 4 out of 5]

I was intrigued by this book when I read David Brooks’ review a while back. I was surprised, skeptical and rather turned off in the beginning with the Panglossian tone of the book - “I have seen the future, America, and it is still filled with boundless possibility.” By the end I got it though. Kotkin has been looking at demographic data from the perspective of an economist and really can’t figure out why people don’t see the importance of immigration and the other assets the US has. He dispenses with the urban planners and futurists rather quickly by arguing with the data. It takes a while of drinking the cool aid before you start seeing his world view.
First of all he attacks the doom and gloom idea that America is a nation in decline. (Definitely his pet peeve) His argument is that the US is the only developed, advanced economy country poised to increase its population and counteract its aging population (by another 100 million). Coupled with “it’s unique and fundamental assets – its deep-seated spirit of ingenuity, its robust demographics (including a resourceful stream of ever-assimilating immigrants) and the world’s largest, most productive expanse of arable land,” Kotkin makes a compelling argument for growth not decline. His use of data and statistics to make his arguments lends a rare rational view of the future. This levelheaded approach is refreshing and provides a more believable and less subjective view. (For instance, he explains that even with 100 million more people, the country will still have only 1/6 the density of Germany.)
Then he systematically evaluates American society and how the next 50 years and 100 million will play out addressing the strains and stresses the growth will put on energy, infrastructure, and natural resources. He also gives a state of the urban, suburban, and heartland with an eye as to where potential growth will appear. He addresses each in turn and puts forward some interesting ideas that made me first want to move to the city, then the suburbs and finally yes even the Midwest. Using his data driven point he puts forth that suburbs aren’t going anywhere. He makes the argument that most Americans like the suburbs despite what urban planners and designers think. He first looks at our cities. His cogent reconciliation of our differing “superstar cities” - NY/San Francisco vs. Houston/Atlanta explains why we love the former but why the latter is truly the American success model with no European equivalent and no defining city center that we all love to have in our mind when we think of a city. He talks about the 10 megalopolitan that will be home to our burgeoning population and that all but two will be in the boom towns of Miami, LA, etc. As he rounds out his review of US cities, he is scathing in his critique of cities “revitalized” by dumping money solely on culture or tourism without the underlying industrial development (think Cleveland, Philly, and New Orleans). In a competitive environment “cultural hipness” is not enough to attract companies and “creatives.”
He acknowledges the need to manage the impact on the environment by 100 million more people. However he advocates that most of this change will occur as it always has – through market forces and new technologies and not be “government fiat.”
It was the most interesting book I’ve read on how America lives and will live since Edge Cities.

[house targaryen · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is thoroughly readable and well researched. Good job with that.

It would have made my "favorites" and 5 star list if the author would be just a tiny bit more in touch with reality as far as population and environment.

He asserts that population needs to continue growing for the economy to grow and lifestyles to improve. The population cannot keep growing forever across the world, it is a finite resource. We would all be better off with a smaller population, from infrastructure to job loss to the environment. He extols the religious family with many children as the future of our world, and the educated woman who puts off having a family is a heathen who doesn't care for the future. And I quote:

Chapter 1 - Four Hundred Million Americans - p. 6

"The desire to have children is a fundamental affirmation of faith in the future and in values that transcend the individual. This is particularly true in affluent societies, where technology has made the decision not to have children simple and socially acceptable. "

It is an individual/family's choice whether to have 0 kids or 19. Some may see that having kids is an ecological and societal improvement, since 1st world kids use 30x more resources in their lifetime than 3rd world kids. The world already has 7 billion people.

Same page:

"Throughout history low fertility and socioeconomic decline have been inextricably linked, creating a vicious cycle that affected such once-vibrant civilizations as ancient Rome . . . now affects contemporary Europe, S. Korea & Japan."

What about the black plague's aftermath, when Europe flourished with a Renaissance? What about the overpopulation and ecological destruction that has made many African nations constantly starving, constantly having children, and no future or education or government or plan?

The most unselfish thing to do for future generations might be to not have children.

[Jay Connor · Rating 4 out of 5]

Here is the strongest argument against viewing your community in a passive "glass is half empty" mindset. An exciting future is not winning a zero-sum race of dwindling possibilities...in our near future: community, a sense of place, a connection will carry more power -- both economic and cultural -- than where the factories of the last half-century were located. New eyes and new hope ... build your community; build your future!

"The Next Hundred Million" provides a vivid snapshot of America in 2050 by focusing not on power brokers, policy disputes, or abstract trends, but rather on the evolution of the more intimate units of American society—families, towns, neighborhoods, industries. It is upon the success or failure of these communities, Kotkin argues, that the American future rests.

[The American Conservative]

'Kotkin has always been the most levelheaded of futurists. While other writers on urban affairs love to suggest that we’ll all move downtown to hang out with Richard Florida’s gay creative set or that we’ll all commute to work on solar-powered magnetic-levitation high-speed rail, Kotkin predicts that America in four decades will look like America today, only more so: more cars, more suburbs, and more strip malls. In The Next Hundred Million, the America of 2050 sounds like a gigantic version of the San Fernando Valley of 2010, just with lousier weather.'

Read the full review, "News From the Future," on our website:
http://www.theamericanconservative.co...

[Howard Olsen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Joel Kotkin is a rarity: an urban studies maven who likes the suburbs; likes America; and thinks the future of America will be one of increased wealth, increased ethnic diversity, and decreasing racial strife. He also thinks the America of the next 50 years can only work if the country decentralizes, with local communities taking on a more central role in self-governance. A breath of fresh air among the usual doom'n'gloom this topic normally attracts.

[Marcia Call · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a fascinating read for anyone who wants a peek into the future. I will be 90-something by 2050 so this will not be my world but the world of my children and grandchildren. Every chapter brings new insights on where we'll be living, what our families will look like, etc. I highly recommend this book. Also, Kotkin is a regular commentator on livable communities, census reports, etc. You should find him online and subscribe to his blog.

[Dan Griswold · Rating 4 out of 5]

Read certain parts for a research paper. A solid, optimistic take on America's future as a dynamic, multi-ethnic immigrant nation.

[Jim Pfluecke · Rating 2 out of 5]

The strength of this book is Kotkin's take on the demographic changes that will take place in America of the next 40 years and how this has the potential to contribute to the resurgence/maintenance of American prosperity. In this respect, the book is 5 stars. I think that people you are active in politics and policy should take the time to read this book and arm themselves with these facts and ideas.

However, I downgrade the book on a whole because I think that Kotkins effusive optimism hides a lot of real problems.
1. his attacks on environmentalists ignores the nature of their concerns. Modern environmentalism is more than a combination of moralism and alarmism- it is a vision for a future that is environmentall sustainable, economically diverse/robust, and one with an emphasis on justice and equality (racial, gender, etc). Kotkin thinks that, despite a tremendously well funded and well rooted opposition, we will magically embrace clean energy and sustainable agriculture (I am not sure if he is even aware that problems exist with the long term sustainability of our agricultural system). By railing against Peak Oil advocates and global warming alarmists, Kotkin can neatly ignore the stress 400 million Americans will place on the natural environment.

2. similarly, his vision of a white plurality America is all rainbows and puppies, ignoring the real struggles that have been required for every step towards racial (and other forms) of equality. Additionally, although in the last chapter he looks at barriers to a beautiful, happy American future, he fails to define how those with current educational and economic disadvantages will be able to participate in our wonderful future. Current inequality is the outcome of past policies and current conditions and he does not address this as he maps out the future.

3. his disdain for urban planners, godless Europeans, and super feminists is mostly a straw man argument. The positions he argues against are not ones that are easily found in public, non-acedemic discourse. So, while Kotkin clearly wants to be a man of the people, differentiating himself from pessimistic, suburb hating planners and academics, it is in the interaction with their arguments that he is most comfortable.

So, while I do recommend this book, I think that his optimism and faith in American exceptionalism (sp?)leads him to downplay or ignore real issues faced by many Americans.

[Chris · Rating 2 out of 5]

This was well researched but I basically disagreed with most of what he said. The main issue being he acts like in 2050, well, it's like he's never heard of this thing called global warming. His basic position is that the "hype" about people moving back to the city from the suburbs is just that, Hype. And that the cities of tomorrow are Phoenix, Charlotte, etc. Above and beyond the fact that I kept thinking, "Has he been to Phoenix?" aren't they supposed to be out of water by 2050? Who's going to be living in suburbs and driving an hour a day when gas is $12 a gallon, etc., etc. And he's not a political conservative per se, but just a little environmentally clueless.

[Daniel Cunningham · Rating 3 out of 5]

A welcome departure from the litany of doom and gloom often on the menu for "the future of America", and interesting in its own right.

Notable gaps reading it now: it was written pre-Trump, so it's predictions/dependence on immigration levels, the evolution of racial attitudes and politics, etc. seem glaring and... well, we'll have to see. And, though it mentions the environment several times, there is nothing in here that seriously takes on climate-change-induced issues.

[Leonardo Etcheto · Rating 4 out of 5]

A book for optimism. The bookend chapters do a really good job of laying out his reasons for thinking the USA will get even better. His arguments are all centered around how cities evolve and what people seek for a good life. The key are the basics and I like very much how he thinks, mirrors my own thoughts. Be careful with the experts, especially when they tell you how to live. He is a proponent of a smarter greener suburbia as one of the main options to accommodate an increase in population. But he is not an absolutist, everyone gets a choice. He confirms my gut feeling that focusing on the fancy stuff over the basics is a long term loser. Fancy needs a base.
Liberty, choice and sokojikara (a fancy way of saying we have both human and environmental resources and the belief to use them).
The book gets a bit dry in the middle, with lots of statistics and seventeen different examples of the same basic arguments. You can tell he is a professor and not a novelist, but the argument is well presented and documented.

[Graeme · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ten years old but still largely current, The Next Hundred Million is fascinating and very useful in planning for the future. Joel Kotkin is scrupulously fair and always positive about the ever-developing and recovering character of this great country and its peoples. As a sometimes unappreciative alien, I need to be reminded of how wonderful the United States is.

[100 More! · Rating 3 out of 5]

Check out the 100 More! podcast for thoughts and discussion on The Next Hundred Million!

https://soundcloud.com/geo-flores-709...

[marisa · Rating 1 out of 5]

sadly this book did not age well at all

[Daniel Solera · Rating 3 out of 5]

I figured Joel Kotkin’s The Next Hundred Million would be a timely read. The country is currently juggling a slew of issues, one of which being the controversial topic of immigration reform. As a country whose various ethnicities have their own unique histories and struggles, dealing with the task of incorporating one hundred million more over the next forty years is both challenging and delicate. That, coupled with my fondness for forward-looking, predictive studies, led me to this book.

Unfortunately, the demographic angle that deals with assimilation of foreign cultures, conflicting national identities and immigration reform constitute only two out of seven chapters. The rest of the book has Kotkin cheerleading for American suburbia, heralding it as the future bastions of commerce and culture. His points are valid and substantiated; suggesting that large US cities are getting too expensive for families and businesses, they are largely environmentally unsustainable and don’t conform to current living trends.

But honestly, a book about suburbs is a boring book. I wanted to read about how the United States’ demography was going to change and not a business proposal for suburban real estate. George Friedman mentioned the changing populace in his geopolitical forecast with a similar title, The Next 100 Years. He talked about how the influx of Mexican immigrants into the American southwest will increase over the next 50 – 70 years to a point where the cultural border between countries will disappear, which will create a significant challenge to US power. Given that Kotkin’s 2050 is right in the middle of this issue, I expected similar ideas. Instead, Kotkin swats the topic away by assuring us that immigrants will consider themselves Americans first, and Mexicans or immigrants second. It will be interesting to see which of these two authors proves more accurate.

Kotkin’s focus on the urban exodus wasn’t the only part of the book that bothered me. He also placed a heavy emphasis on how America’s spirituality will be largely responsible for its future successes. I agree that the charity and good will that comes with local religious groups would help foster communities, but the frequency with which Kotkin mentions it can be off-putting. There’s also a section on page 203 where he mentions America’s “religion marketplace”, a figurative place where fickle Americans can swap, adjust and create their religions, which made me want to hurl. Kotkin also comes off as someone with a bone to pick with environmentalists, lumping them up as anti-natalists or irrational pessimists who describe humanity as AIDS for the Earth.

The book could have also used some more proofreading. It has several typos, rogue punctuation and a marked overuse of the word “bucolic”. And yet, despite all these gripes, it wasn’t a terrible book. Maybe I’ve gotten too used to reading books about problems that I get a little apprehensive when reading one that exudes optimism. Aside from his insistence that championing God will help our long term success, his facts and statistics were solid and interesting, even when dealing with the beige topic of suburbia.

[James · Rating 2 out of 5]

The strength of this book is Kotkin's take on the demographic changes that will take place in America of the next 40 years and how this has the potential to contribute to the resurgence/maintenance of American prosperity. In this respect, the book is 5 stars. I think that people you are active in politics and policy should take the time to read this book and arm themselves with these facts and ideas.

However, I downgrade the book on a whole because I think that Kotkins effusive optimism hides a lot of real problems.
1. his attacks on environmentalists ignores the nature of their concerns. Modern environmentalism is more than a combination of moralism and alarmism- it is a vision for a future that is environmentall sustainable, economically diverse/robust, and one with an emphasis on justice and equality (racial, gender, etc). Kotkin thinks that, despite a tremendously well funded and well rooted opposition, we will magically embrace clean energy and sustainable agriculture (I am not sure if he is even aware that problems exist with the long term sustainability of our agricultural system). By railing against Peak Oil advocates and global warming alarmists, Kotkin can neatly ignore the stress 400 million Americans will place on the natural environment.

2. similarly, his vision of a white plurality America is all rainbows and puppies, ignoring the real struggles that have been required for every step towards racial (and other forms) of equality. Additionally, although in the last chapter he looks at barriers to a beautiful, happy American future, he fails to define how those with current educational and economic disadvantages will be able to participate in our wonderful future. Current inequality is the outcome of past policies and current conditions and he does not address this as he maps out the future.

3. his disdain for urban planners, godless Europeans, and super feminists is mostly a straw man argument. The positions he argues against are not ones that are easily found in public, non-acedemic discourse. So, while Kotkin clearly wants to be a man of the people, differentiating himself from pessimistic, suburb hating planners and academics, it is in the interaction with their arguments that he is most comfortable.

So, while I do recommend this book, I think that his optimism and faith in American exceptionalism (sp?)leads him to downplay or ignore real issues faced by many Americans.

[Stephen Gallup · Rating 2 out of 5]

Predicting the future has always been an iffy business. My impression is that anyone who gets it right is just lucky. At the same time, I'll acknowledge the value in painting a rosy picture of an imagined future, spelling out what has to happen in order to achieve it, and offering that as motivation.

Joel Kotkin sees good days ahead for the United States. He believes the country has a unique self-renewing power (oddly, he calls it by a Japanese word, sokojikara), based on its high fertility, diversity, and physical assets, and says this will overcome all obstacles, as has always happened in the past.

Reading this, one may like or dislike it, agree or disagree. But I'm not sure anyone will be persuaded to a new opinion. Perhaps Kotkin would have been more convincing if he'd started out with an introduction to explain succinctly where he's coming from. Instead, he launches right into Chapter 1 with pronouncements that feel unsupported, despite the footnotes. Within just a few pages I found myself grasping for anything substantial.

This is not to say I reject the future he sees. For example, I wouldn't be surprised or unhappy if the suburbs continue to be an important part of American life, and if the Heartland grows in importance relative to fashionable coastal cities. On the other hand, when he says Americans will be held together by shared “ideals and attitudes,” I look at the way we've been tearing ourselves apart with increasing enthusiasm for more than a decade and shake my head. Of course the country does need “a common belief system and spiritual core, a sense of shared destiny.” That's what it had throughout most of its history. We might find it again, but the last time I noticed it was in the immediate aftermath of 911. It lasted maybe a month.

In short, Kotkin presents scenarios with little or no acknowledgement as to how or why they could be wrong. Even when I'm inclined to agree, counterarguments come to mind. By not seriously addressing them, he leaves me unconvinced.

If he worries about anything, it's whether we can restore the belief that upward mobility is still possible. I think he's right in saying the increasing dominance of finance, as opposed to production, is a mistake. But that too, he apparently thinks, will be sorted out in the long run. Time will tell.

[Alex Nagler · Rating 2 out of 5]

I had issue with this book. It's focus was primarily on the future of American cities in the coming 40 years, hypothesizing the existence of a few "Superstar" cities working in tandem with formerly rural areas that have been urbanized to support the growing population of the United States. This future population Kotkin speaks of is 400 Million. While I'm not arguing with his theses pertaining to how America's positive growth rate could be the one thing that saves the country from potential decline, as Europe and Japan are faced with negative rates and China teeters on potential disaster due to the combination of the One Child policy in tandem with a disproportionate number of males to females. What I'm arguing with is his belief that the American suburb will reinvent itself in a way that doesn't deal with cars. The idea that Middle America will suddenly become a land of flourishing cities, reliant on cars with minimal emphasis on mass transit, is highly unlikely.

Had Kotkin brought this issue up instead of brushing it aside in a single paragraph, I'd have ranked this book higher. It's discusion of the ethnic forecasts for the country in the next 40 years were insightful, as were his discussion on trends in age and cultural attitudes. I just couldn't get past the idea of a major city in the middle of North Dakota.

(That's not to say that the 52x income disparity in my beloved NYC isn't criminal)

[Jay · Rating 1 out of 5]

Read this for class without any knowledge of the author and felt that all should be warned. Kotkin is a statistics hack and basically a talking head for the "everything is all right here" camp. He provides a very quick read to convey his vision for 2050 when we have 100 million more people. It will all look much the same and we'll all be pretty much the same. He expects every trend to continue unabated, from suburban home sales to economic growth. He provides minimal documentation for his claims, using mostly news articles from major publications. He acknowledges that minority and urban populations are growing, but sees no disconnect to his suburban sprawl vision. His claim that minorities will be so focused on the American dream that they will become successful entrepreneurs is an example of his disconnected thinking from the realities of the past and present.

[Daniel · Rating 3 out of 5]

A solid, fact-based and optimistic view of America's growth over the next 40 years.
Takes a convincing view that America will remain strong due to its strengths as a society based on an ethos of hard work, reward for effort, freedom to be diverse- all of which combine the population into a more unified and prosperous whole.

In many ways it's just a positive defense of the middle class and how America's uniqueness rapidly churns people into the middle class and allows them and assists them to succeed.

[Steve · Rating 2 out of 5]

Reads like a social studies text book but it is informative. Provides an optimistic view of the positive results for our economy as we grow to 400 million by 2050. If we get a handle on environmental problems! Very negative about successful old cities such New York, Chicago - have to be rich to live there. Positive about sprawling cities like Dallas, Atlanta.

[Chris Aylott · Rating 3 out of 5]

Kotkin has an optimistic view of the next forty years. He sees the United States as a growing, young nation firing on all cylinders as a suburban, multiethnic melting pot. I like his demographic argument, but I don't think he's giving nearly enough attention to the weather. If the climate continues to tilt, as seems likely, that next hundred million may be in for a nasty future.

[Stephen · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book unapologetically takes aim at progressive notions of what the USA "should be", in terms of re-urbanization, and presents great counterarguments in favor of country life, as well as suburbia. It also points out the advantages to maintaining the USA as an open society that views immigration and diversity as some of its greatest strengths.

[Caleb M · Rating 4 out of 5]

Super-informative book. Kotkin used a huge list of sources to back up his seemingly idealistic view of what America can be in 2050 with 100 million more people. His views on city planning and community development line up almost exactly with mine. Refreshing read after so much bad news about the economy and immigration.

[Adriel · Rating 3 out of 5]

Joel Kotkin packs this book with facts and figures about the demographic growth of the US, and the projections over the next four decades. Very well put together. Now, to see if his predictions of a country dominated by a suburban “archipelago of villages” that looks more like California’s current demographics proves true. I look forward to reviewing this volume in the future.

[Ashley · Rating 3 out of 5]

A few of the chapters were quite repetitive, particularly the chapter on the Heartland, but overall the book was very informative, interesting, and even entertaining. The chapters on changing demographics and on cities were excellent.

[Pam · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book was very optimistic about America's future in the next 50 years. It was refreshing to read almost exclusively positive statements about our excellent prospects but I also felt it was obvious that many of the problems facing us were not addressed.

[Drtaxsacto · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a good explanation of the dynamics of population in the coming 30+ years. The US, if we can figure out how to make our immigrants feel valued, has some tremendous resources that are not as available in other parts of the world.

[Joe · Rating 5 out of 5]

If you want a glimpse into the future of America's cities and demographics, how the suburbs will continue to rise in importance, and what economic challenges Americans will be responding to, then this is the book to read.