Stephen Baxter should stick to fiction.
"Deep Future" is Baxter's attempt, from the perspective of the year 2001, to predict possible futures for the human race, as far out as the heat death of the universe. And despite his incredible talents as a captivating author of speculative fiction, he fails miserably in his role as a prophet. Granted, many of the scenarios he offers up are scientifically plausible, and would make -- indeed, have made -- wonderful fodder for far-future fiction. But in trying to predict the actual future of our species, I think it is fair to hold the author to a higher standard. Instead of concerning himself with the possible future of the human race millions, even billions, of years into the future, Baxter would have been better served by focusing on the perils of the immediate future, perils which should have been self-evident to him at the time of writing.
Baxter does, in fact, suggest at more than one point in this book that the human race could experience extinction for any number of reasons, even within the relatively near future. But his insistence on depicting us as a resilient, scrappy, can-do sort of race comes off, in 2020, as quaint and naive. To say this collection of short essays is a disappointment would be an understatement: Baxter exemplifies the sort of complacency which has prevented us from taking any meaningful, significant action in the ensuing two decades to avert disaster. He should probably have cut this book down to about 50 to 80 pages and ended it with a dire warning, perhaps a statement such as: "While there are many plausible scenarios for the long-term survival of the species, they all assume that we'll live out the next century without destroying ourselves, a premise which is, itself, increasingly dubious." Instead he just merrily plows through any such concerns with nothing more than a perfunctory nod, and assumes that we will overcome all obstacles, even ourselves.
This cuts to the heart of the arrogance which is often embodied, unwittingly, by scientists, especially those who make it their business to popularize science. They like to belittle -- for example -- religion as the root cause of most of our problems. Yet without science there would be no climate change, no overpopulation, no nuclear weapons. In short, Baxter, like so many others before and since, wants to divorce science from human nature. The results are predictably meager, and this book has become tragically, ludicrously, dated in a matter of less than 20 years. It would be heartening to see him publish a retraction.
Don't get me wrong: I generally really love Stephen Baxter's work. He has written some of my very favorite science fiction books. But this is laughably weak. Absolutely pathetic.