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The Emerging Republican Majority
An important statement of the modern conservative revival
482 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 1969
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Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews
December 23, 2020
This book is a fascinating historical artifact from one of the first writers to fully grasp the implications of the major party realignment happening in the period of the 1930s to 1960s.
Kevin Phillips was a republican political operative and involved in the Nixon presidential campaign of 1968. He viewed the emerging republican majority that he describes with enthusiasm. But you don't have to agree with his politics (I very much do not) to recognize that his grasp on voting patterns at a granular, county-by-county level is accurate and his analysis has a great deal of truth to it. The book has no moral dimension; it's purpose is to lay out a winning strategy for the republican party is based on racial voting patterns in the south, combined with traditional republican strength in non-Great Lakes midwest and plains, as well as the southwest and California, which at the time had just voted for Nixon and elected Reagan as Governor.
Phillips describes the old voting patterns that were largely a result of the Civil War breaking down under the new political dynamic created by the New Deal/Great Society programs. He is very interested in tracing migration patterns of various ethnicities and correlating them to voting patterns, demonstrating that Yankee and Scandinavian settlement generally results in (present day) Democratic voting, and Scotch-Irish and German settlement in the mid-Atlantic and south are fertile ground for Republicans. There are lots of exceptions to these patterns, and Phillips goes to lengths to explore them, discussing the impacts of immigrant arrivals in cities, Tammany Hall style machines, Catholicism and anti-Catholicism, and the movement of previously enslaved populations out of the south.
What we see is the now-well-known "Southern Strategy" of the GOP in its early form, as the previously "solid South" turned from Democratic to GOP stronghold, and the same happened in reverse in the New England states. Phillips is good at understanding how third party candidacies helped to obscure this transition, including the Strom Thurmond "Dixiecrat" ticket of 1948 and the George Wallace candidacies. Voters opting for these third party options tended to be traditional Democrats who voted third party as a weigh-station out of the Democratic party and into the GOP.
Later in life, Phillips came to greatly regret what he had written, and the blueprint it gave conservatives to become an anti-civil rights party and ultimately the monstrosity it has become. It is certainly strange the way that anyone conversant at all in US political history understands the parties' realignment to some degree, but it remains extraordinarily difficult to grasp how this could have actually taken place in reality. Even a figure like Trump, as heterodox as he is in some ways, was completely unable to alter Congressional Republicans' traditional policy positions. It took incredible economic upheaval, novel political innovations (again, New Deal and Great Society), and the enduring racism of the American people to achieve realignment over the course of decades.
This book is a view from someone who was seeing it pretty clearly in real time. A lot of Phillips predictions of what to come where very close to correct, and we did in fact enter a period of conservative dominance of our political life, which we may or may not still be living in. The only big mistake he makes is his contention that California and the Pacific coast generally will continue to be battlegrounds. The conservative southern California he imagined overtaking liberal San Francisco was never to come into reality.
There was a a book in 2002 entitled "The Emerging Democratic Majority" that purported to make a similar case a coming period of Democratic dominance. I haven't read it, but heard good things about it, though I must say that it does not feel like a period of emerging Democratic majorities to me. It does feel like a moment of unusual pressures, fractures, and possibility though - so one never knows.
Kevin Phillips was a republican political operative and involved in the Nixon presidential campaign of 1968. He viewed the emerging republican majority that he describes with enthusiasm. But you don't have to agree with his politics (I very much do not) to recognize that his grasp on voting patterns at a granular, county-by-county level is accurate and his analysis has a great deal of truth to it. The book has no moral dimension; it's purpose is to lay out a winning strategy for the republican party is based on racial voting patterns in the south, combined with traditional republican strength in non-Great Lakes midwest and plains, as well as the southwest and California, which at the time had just voted for Nixon and elected Reagan as Governor.
Phillips describes the old voting patterns that were largely a result of the Civil War breaking down under the new political dynamic created by the New Deal/Great Society programs. He is very interested in tracing migration patterns of various ethnicities and correlating them to voting patterns, demonstrating that Yankee and Scandinavian settlement generally results in (present day) Democratic voting, and Scotch-Irish and German settlement in the mid-Atlantic and south are fertile ground for Republicans. There are lots of exceptions to these patterns, and Phillips goes to lengths to explore them, discussing the impacts of immigrant arrivals in cities, Tammany Hall style machines, Catholicism and anti-Catholicism, and the movement of previously enslaved populations out of the south.
What we see is the now-well-known "Southern Strategy" of the GOP in its early form, as the previously "solid South" turned from Democratic to GOP stronghold, and the same happened in reverse in the New England states. Phillips is good at understanding how third party candidacies helped to obscure this transition, including the Strom Thurmond "Dixiecrat" ticket of 1948 and the George Wallace candidacies. Voters opting for these third party options tended to be traditional Democrats who voted third party as a weigh-station out of the Democratic party and into the GOP.
Later in life, Phillips came to greatly regret what he had written, and the blueprint it gave conservatives to become an anti-civil rights party and ultimately the monstrosity it has become. It is certainly strange the way that anyone conversant at all in US political history understands the parties' realignment to some degree, but it remains extraordinarily difficult to grasp how this could have actually taken place in reality. Even a figure like Trump, as heterodox as he is in some ways, was completely unable to alter Congressional Republicans' traditional policy positions. It took incredible economic upheaval, novel political innovations (again, New Deal and Great Society), and the enduring racism of the American people to achieve realignment over the course of decades.
This book is a view from someone who was seeing it pretty clearly in real time. A lot of Phillips predictions of what to come where very close to correct, and we did in fact enter a period of conservative dominance of our political life, which we may or may not still be living in. The only big mistake he makes is his contention that California and the Pacific coast generally will continue to be battlegrounds. The conservative southern California he imagined overtaking liberal San Francisco was never to come into reality.
There was a a book in 2002 entitled "The Emerging Democratic Majority" that purported to make a similar case a coming period of Democratic dominance. I haven't read it, but heard good things about it, though I must say that it does not feel like a period of emerging Democratic majorities to me. It does feel like a moment of unusual pressures, fractures, and possibility though - so one never knows.
February 6, 2017
Fascinating analysis of voting patterns over time and their implications for the makeup of the political parties in America. The decisions made by the GOP strategists and Nixon echo into the Republican party of today.
August 8, 2016
An opinionated crash-course on American history and sociology. Quite right-wing but well worth reading if you want to find out how American politics functions. Interestingly for a right-wing author, the book is all about class and ethnicity/religion. Quite prescient too. Pity he wrote this almost 50 years ago. I would be interested in seeing his response to Carter's and Clinton's victories
August 2, 2009
A prescient analysis at the time about the national strategy of the Republican party, as Nixon began using white resentment about segregation rather skillfully to exploit an opening in the South and to appeal to bigots everywhere.
January 18, 2025
Despite the title, this book is not overly political (I.e. republican or democrat) but is a very academic review of the voting trends in the regions of the US from 1840-1968. Kevin Phillips writes an exhaustive account of political outcomes down to the county level to show the ebbs and flows of American politics and why it made sense that Nixon was a logical winner in 1968. Much of his writing resonated with me as what I see today in America.
If you are confused by the political climate we are currently in (which I was after the recent election results) you could do worse than read this book to give you some historical perspective.
If you are confused by the political climate we are currently in (which I was after the recent election results) you could do worse than read this book to give you some historical perspective.
June 8, 2023
A fantastically-detailed, but biased and outdated review of political trends at the county- and neighborhood-level in the context of the aftermath of the 1968 Presidential Election. A valuable read for anyone wishing to better understand the mechanics of the "party switch" and the modern political landscape.
February 26, 2021
This is a good thorough book of the presidential elections from 1912 to 1968. It goes into great detail by regions, counties. ethnicity, race, and religion. It also forecasts the future in which Kevin was accurate in some respects and completely wrong in others like California. He predicted it would become more conservative based on Reagan and Nixon's election.
It's a book worth referencing at times.
It's a book worth referencing at times.
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December 9, 2018I had forgotten about this book until I recently read 1912 by James Chace. I was a sophomore at university before Watergate, raised by post-war Democrats. I was naïve then, and in many ways am still so. So much has changed and yet it has all happened before...
Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews