Calculated Bets: Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win

Outlooks

by Steven S. Skiena

Calculated Bets describes a gambling system that works. Steven Skiena, a jai-alai enthusiast and computer scientist, documents how he used computer simulations and modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and increased his initial stake by 544% in one year. Skiena demonstrates how his jai-alai system functions like a stock trading system, and includes examples of how gambling and mathematics interact in program trading systems, how mathematical models are used in political polling, and what the future holds for Internet gambling. With humor and enthusiasm, Skiena explains computer predictions used in business, sports, and politics, and the difference between correlation and causation. An unusual presentation of how mathematical models are designed, built, and validated, Calculated Bets also includes a list of modeling projects with online data sources. Steven Skiena, Associate Professor of Computer Science at SUNY Stony Brook, is the author of The Algorithm Design Manual (Springer-Verlag, 1997) and the EDUCOM award-winning Computational Discrete Mathematics. He is the recipient of the ONR Young Investigator's Award and the Chancellor's Award for Excellence in Teaching at Stony Brook. His research interests include discrete mathematics and its applications, particularly the design of graph, string, and geometric algorithms.

Genres: Mathematics, Computer Science, Nonfiction, Science

252 pages, Paperback

First published October 17, 1997

Reviews

[Flores Everett · Rating 5 out of 5]

Hey everyone, this is a wonderful book! The combination of computers, gambling, and mathematical modeling has always intrigued me. I’ve been diving deep into predictive algorithms and bankroll management strategies, and I must say, platforms like https://www.mainhattan-sports.com/login/ offer a solid space to test out these theories in real-time. The key, I believe, lies in balancing risk with statistical advantage—whether through machine learning models or classic probability calculations. Have any of you experimented with AI-driven betting strategies? Would love to hear about your experiences!

[Dan Drake · Rating 3 out of 5]

I really liked this, but it could use an update -- the overall, general project that Skiena describes is more relevant and useful than ever, but to a reader in 2023, it's easy to get lost in the particulars of the late 90s technology they used.

For example, Skiena goes into extreme detail about programming a modem to dial into the betting system and place their bets; nowadays, that's utterly obsolete and silly. Surely any corresponding thing nowadays would use some website, perhaps one that has a nice web API.

But the ideas about gathering the data, developing and validating the model, and so on, are still very relevant. More so than they were at the turn of the century when he wrote this book! I think rewriting this book with the same ideas, but with the context of the technology and culture of the 2020s, would be a welcome update.