Critical Transitions in Nature and Society

by Marten Scheffer

How do we explain the remarkably abrupt changes that sometimes occur in nature and society--and can we predict why and when they happen? This book offers a comprehensive introduction to critical transitions in complex systems--the radical changes that happen at tipping points when thresholds are passed.

Marten Scheffer accessibly describes the dynamical systems theory behind critical transitions, covering catastrophe theory, bifurcations, chaos, and more. He gives examples of critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, climate, evolution, and human societies. And he demonstrates how to deal with these transitions, offering practical guidance on how to predict tipping points, how to prevent bad transitions, and how to promote critical transitions that work for us and not against us. Scheffer shows the time is ripe for understanding and managing critical transitions in the vast and complex systems in which we live. This book can also serve as a textbook and includes a detailed appendix with equations.

Provides an accessible introduction to dynamical systems theory
Covers critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, the climate, evolution, and human societies
Explains how to predict tipping points
Offers strategies for preventing bad transitions and triggering good ones
Features an appendix with equations

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Academic

400 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2009

Reviews

[Hudson Lazzara · Rating 4 out of 5]

I recommend it to anyone interested in the topic. Lots of interesting examples, especially from ecology. I would have loved even more math, but not everybody’s a physicist.

[Alissa Mocking · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book gives a nice view on everything that is involved in complex system thinking. How well can we predict ecological shifts and outcomes. I can recommend it for everyone interested in this part of ecological system thinking.

[Wilte · Rating 4 out of 5]

Deep, dense and well-structured book on alternatie stable states and how path-dependence can lead to different equilibria (some sub optimal local maxima).

Example of clear/turbid lakes is often used, as this is Scheffer’s field of study. A lake can be cleared by removing fish and it can end up in a permanent clear state.

But transitions are also relevant to human and societal behavior.

Interesting quote (reference to Boulding bit unclear):

Consider an experiment in which groups had to complete complex assignments. In half the groups, the experimenters introduced a
"plant" — someone trained by the experimenter to take a critical attitude (play "devil's advocate") in reference to group decisions. The groups with these plants consistently outperformed those without the plants, reinforcing the idea that conflict (within limits) plays an important role in problem solving. Nonetheless, when in the second round of the experiment all groups were asked in secret ballot to eliminate one team member in order to improve performance, all groups who had devil's advocates chose to eliminate them, hence eliminating their competitive advantage. Apparently, few groups recognize the value of diversity and conflict in group problem solving. Is this silly, or might there generally be an advantage to coherent groups dancing to the same beat?

31. E. Boulding, "Power and Conflict in Organizations: Further Reflections on Conflict Management," in Power and Conflict in Organizations, R. L. Kahn and
E. Boulding, Eds., pp. 146-150 (Basic Books, New York, 1964).

[Anne · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great introduction to complexity and critical transitions, with examples from lake ecology. The later chapters on social change and policy are thought provoking, but unexpectedly much more speculative.