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Crashes, Crises, and Calamities: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs
Master of popular science Len Fisher is back again, to shed new light on how we can predict catastrophe and avoid disaster.
6 pages, Audio CD
First published January 1, 2011
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Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews
February 10, 2015
I like my technical writing and science served to me on a platter. I admire those actual physicists, mathematicians, cognitive scientists, etc., who can make me understand what their life work is driving toward without having to share their advanced degree. Fortunately, there are some of those out there... and more writers now than before who are interested in communicating with us lay people.
It would be wonderful if science could discover the answers to all our questions and allow us to put aside all that pondering and get on with the easy life....or maybe not. Do I digress? Highly probable, so okay, back to this book.
Len Fisher would like to be able to predict significant disasters: climate change, binge drinking, bridge failures, the disappearance of commercial fisheries, the break up of relationships, etc. The methodology he sees as useful is: choose the problem to focus on; create a mathematical model of it; and, interpret the results. If you take another peek, you can probably guess which of the topics I listed are more suited to mathematical modeling --- problems in structural engineering are more easily modeled than most psychological questions. He offers these insights: most crises share the same list of warning signal; these warning signs, if identified and addressed could substantially improve how we predict those crashes, crises, and calamities.
If we choose to go another way, we may condemn our species to future of devolution. Some of the popular ways in which we are doing so are detailed by Fisher: Believing if something occurs before something else, it is its cause; choosing data that agrees with your conclusion and ignoring or discarding the rest; or, insisting that the future will be the same as the past. Fisher is good at tying these and other higher concepts to very practical examples. In fact, the book is chock-full of them. Fisher isn't without skepticism of models. He spends time on how "group think," ignorance or some of the other things listed just above can sabotage any model's conclusions.
Yet, this book offers us encouragement that we can identify warning signs and avoid or minimize a wide spectrum of tragedy. That's a good thing, right?
PS: This is a dense book, and for all Fisher's efforts, I found it easier to take in small bites.
It would be wonderful if science could discover the answers to all our questions and allow us to put aside all that pondering and get on with the easy life....or maybe not. Do I digress? Highly probable, so okay, back to this book.
Len Fisher would like to be able to predict significant disasters: climate change, binge drinking, bridge failures, the disappearance of commercial fisheries, the break up of relationships, etc. The methodology he sees as useful is: choose the problem to focus on; create a mathematical model of it; and, interpret the results. If you take another peek, you can probably guess which of the topics I listed are more suited to mathematical modeling --- problems in structural engineering are more easily modeled than most psychological questions. He offers these insights: most crises share the same list of warning signal; these warning signs, if identified and addressed could substantially improve how we predict those crashes, crises, and calamities.
If we choose to go another way, we may condemn our species to future of devolution. Some of the popular ways in which we are doing so are detailed by Fisher: Believing if something occurs before something else, it is its cause; choosing data that agrees with your conclusion and ignoring or discarding the rest; or, insisting that the future will be the same as the past. Fisher is good at tying these and other higher concepts to very practical examples. In fact, the book is chock-full of them. Fisher isn't without skepticism of models. He spends time on how "group think," ignorance or some of the other things listed just above can sabotage any model's conclusions.
Yet, this book offers us encouragement that we can identify warning signs and avoid or minimize a wide spectrum of tragedy. That's a good thing, right?
PS: This is a dense book, and for all Fisher's efforts, I found it easier to take in small bites.
January 8, 2019
CRASHES, CRISES AND CALAMITIES
Len Fisher
Basic Books
170 pages
2011 (Found this book by luck RM 18.00)
The question of why certain civilization, societies and ecosystems collapse...Although the future is uncertain, we can foretell what lies ahead. How to expect the unexpected. Demise of species, collapse of a relationship to global warming.
I met this book after attending a very interesting course 'FUTURE THINKING AND SCENARIO PLANNING'.
1. Observation helps to predict future.
2. Connection of something from the past with something similar in future (Curious correlation and fallacious forecasting)
3. Scaling - Predicting
To say more...this 3 points are well written especially for someone like me.
How a disaster happen
How we manage to action accordingly
Discussion Balance of Nature
The Tay Bridge Disaster 28th December 1897
Though, my favorite discussion are how to predict
1. Are the Data reliable
2. Is the Model reliable
3. Are the Calculation reliable
4. Are the PEOPLE RELIABLE
guess what....you know the answer right away..
personal lil library
#reza_aleeya
Len Fisher
Basic Books
170 pages
2011 (Found this book by luck RM 18.00)
The question of why certain civilization, societies and ecosystems collapse...Although the future is uncertain, we can foretell what lies ahead. How to expect the unexpected. Demise of species, collapse of a relationship to global warming.
I met this book after attending a very interesting course 'FUTURE THINKING AND SCENARIO PLANNING'.
1. Observation helps to predict future.
2. Connection of something from the past with something similar in future (Curious correlation and fallacious forecasting)
3. Scaling - Predicting
To say more...this 3 points are well written especially for someone like me.
How a disaster happen
How we manage to action accordingly
Discussion Balance of Nature
The Tay Bridge Disaster 28th December 1897
Though, my favorite discussion are how to predict
1. Are the Data reliable
2. Is the Model reliable
3. Are the Calculation reliable
4. Are the PEOPLE RELIABLE
guess what....you know the answer right away..
personal lil library
#reza_aleeya
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
June 10, 2017
Entertaining, lovely, insightful, new and original...
Len Fisher is one of my favorite authors, and I love his books and his style...
I gave this book 3 stars (to be honest, I was between 3 and 4), because I thought the contents will be more detailed (like to actually know how to predict crises), yet only general descriptions were made...
However, I think the field of predicting disasters and crises is still at its birth and it's only a matter of time when scientists will be really able to forecast crises...
In the end, my verdict:
Book is totally worth reading, and I certainly enjoyed it
Len Fisher is one of my favorite authors, and I love his books and his style...
I gave this book 3 stars (to be honest, I was between 3 and 4), because I thought the contents will be more detailed (like to actually know how to predict crises), yet only general descriptions were made...
However, I think the field of predicting disasters and crises is still at its birth and it's only a matter of time when scientists will be really able to forecast crises...
In the end, my verdict:
Book is totally worth reading, and I certainly enjoyed it
April 16, 2015
The book takes a very structured but entertaining approach to build up the central concepts and ideas.
It gives a great history of the various branches of science and maths that have lead to modern complex models of weather prediction and global warming to name a few. There are many enjoyable footnotes and references that had me reading articles on the web non-stop. An interest in science and maths will help, but not strictly required.
It gives a great history of the various branches of science and maths that have lead to modern complex models of weather prediction and global warming to name a few. There are many enjoyable footnotes and references that had me reading articles on the web non-stop. An interest in science and maths will help, but not strictly required.
June 23, 2011
Was unimpressed. A good part of it may be that the math was just too difficult for me, but I was also unconvinced by the apparent argument that global warming is absolutely true because of fold theory? Didn't follow this one well at all.
April 7, 2013
A good read about the ways things fall apart, physically and biologically. Interesting, but more of a recreational read than an informative one.
August 17, 2016
The author really tried, with humor and illustrations, but I didn't get much of it!
October 12, 2011
Economics for the lay person; good Notes section.
Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews