There are signs the recession is about to end. So what comes next? Growth will resume. But economic uncertainty will worsen, making what comes next not just a boom but a nerve-shattering SONIC BOOM.
Gregg Easterbrook – who "writes nothing that is not brilliant" ( Chicago Tribune ) – is a fount of unconventional wisdom, and over time, he is almost always proven right. Throughout 2008 and 2009, as the global economy was contracting and the experts were panicking, Easterbrook worked on a book saying prosperity is about to make its next big leap. Will he be right again?
SONIC Globalization at Mach Speed presents three basic insights. First, if you don't like globalization, brace yourself, because globalization has barely started. Easterbrook contends the world is about to become far more globally linked. Second, the next wave of global change will be primarily economic prosperity, knowledge and freedom will increase more in the next 50 years than in all of human history to this point. But before you celebrate, Easterbrook further warns that the next phase of global change is going to drive us crazy. Most things will be good for most people – but nothing will seem certain for anyone.
Each SONIC BOOM chapter is based on examples of cities around the world – in the United States, Europe, Russia, China, South America – that represent a significant Sonic Boom trend. With a terrific sense of humor, pitch-perfect reporting and clear, elegant prose, Easterbrook explains why economic recovery is on the horizon but why the next phase of global change will also give everyone one hell of a headache. Forbes calls Easterbrook "the best writer on complex topics in the United States" and SONIC BOOM will show you why.
I was born in Buffalo, New York and have lived there plus Boston, Brussels, Chicago, Colorado, Pakistan and Washington, D.C. My wife is a State Department official, which accounts for the globe-trotting. We have three children, boys born in 1989 and 1995 and a girl born in 1990.
I’ve published three literary novels, nine nonfiction books, with a tenth nonfiction book coming September 2021. The nonfiction is all over the map – economics, theology, psychological, environmental policy. If I had my writing career to do over again, I suppose I would have focused on a single genre, which makes commercial success more likely. Then again, I’ve always written about whatever was on my mind, and feel fortunate to have had that opportunity.
I am proud of my novels, which have gotten great reviews but not otherwise been noticed by the world. I hope someday that will change. Novel #4 is completed for 2022 publication.
I have been associated with The Atlantic Monthly as a staff writer, national correspondent or contributing editor. I have also written extensively for the Washington Monthly, the New Republic, the New York Times, Reuters and the Los Angeles Times.
My quirky football-and-society column Tuesday Morning Quarterback is on hiatus after an 18-year run. I may revive TMQ in the future. Right now the Internet environment is too toxic for any form of quality writing. I have retreated to books. Which is a good place to be!
Uplifting look at our economic future: I hope he's right
Easterbrook begins with the story of the city of Shenzhen, a city most of us have never heard of even though it has nearly nine million residents. It is a city that didn't exist thirty years ago. Easterbrook's point is that this city stands for what is happening in the world today due to globalization moving at mach speed.
On planet is being transformed and our lives as well. He argues rather convincingly that economic freedom in terms of free trade leads to a lessening of hostilities between nations. Being able to compete economically, even though some may suffer, brings about a better world than competing in warfare. Easterbrook gives the obvious example of Europe, which since World War II ended has enjoyed the most peaceful time in its history.
I think Easterbrook is substantially correct, and this speaks well for the coming conflict between the U.S. and China. Both countries (it is hoped) will see the wisdom of competing economically instead of militarily.
Globalization is not all good of course. There is the little matter of the shrinking rain forests and other habitats. There is the uneven distribution of all the relatively cheap goodies. And yes people in poor countries are getting exploited as they work in sweatshops and pesticide-laden fields so that the first world can have cheap jeans and tomatoes all year round. But even though people in the developing countries are getting the short end of the stick, it's a bigger stick than they would have without globalization. Easterbrook expects as the years go by that the gap between the rich and poor countries will shrink. We can see this already in places like China and India.
Another excellent by-product of globalization is the increase in global literacy, which Easterbrook says "has risen from 74 percent a generation ago to 90 percent today." He points out that most of "the gains have been among girls and women," which brings us to another point: educated women essentially double the world's supply of ideas. (p. 22)
One of the reasons for this "sonic boom" is the ability for people and goods to move great distances quickly and cheaply. Consequently, as Easterbrook has it, "distance shrinks," and as distance matters less, differences shrink. (pp. 15-18) As people learn from one another "social progress gathers speed." When you meet and talk with people from faraway places, prejudices tend to dissolve. With the exchange of ideas, technological progress is accelerated.
A curious benefit of globalization that I don't think was predicted by economists is that globalization seems to keep inflation in check. Easterbrook writes, "Inflation has been driven into retreat by the advent of international interconnectedness, which increases efficiency faster than prices can rise…"(p. 19) Some might argue with this, but one thing is clear. During the last couple of decades inflation rates worldwide and especially in Western nations has been milder than in previous decades. And hyperinflation in developing nations has become almost rare.
As a cautionary note, Easterbrook warns that even though people are happier in the developing world as open elections and free market economies grow, people in the developed world, according to a World Values Survey measuring happiness, are either not as happy or only just as happy. (p. 199) This should not be surprising since once you arrive at a comfortable subsistence, money cannot make you any happier. Such is the nature of human psychology.
Easterbrook illustrates what he thinks is happening and going to happen by referring to events in various cities and towns worldwide as typifying the "sonic boom" in progress and to come. Thus the first ten chapters are named for places, beginning with Shenzhen, China and including Erie, Pennsylvania, Leipzig, Germany, Los Angeles, etc., ending with Chapter Eleven: Your Town. In an interesting endnote in Chapter Eleven Easterbrook writes:
"Your first reaction might be to say that if average life span extends into the nineties, society will be dragged down by pension costs. But if you'd told a nineteenth-century rationalist that today men and women typically enjoy active twenty- or even thirty-year retirements, your nineteenth-century interlocutor would have replied that society would be dragged down by pension costs. So far, life extension has been financially manageable for Western nations." (p. 232)
This is an inspiring, uplifting and very readable piece of work. I hope he's mostly right.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”
Written in 2009, it still holds up pretty well. Some examples are dated, but that's the central thesis of the book. I like how it didn't sugarcoat the bad but framed everything as a tradeoff with optimism for the future. Favorite section was demystifying Marx's goals.
You may know Gregg Easterbrook from his previous book The Progress Paradox (one of his six books) or his articles in The Atlantic. I know him mostly from his hobby: writing the Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com.
Sonic Boom tries to look beyond the current recession. Easterbrook looks ahead to what to expect after we make our way out. He sees the continued growth of globalization, interconnectedness and technology improvements. That should lead to greater prosperity, knowledge growth, instability and financial distress.
Easterbrook starts off Sonic Boom by using the Chinese city of Shenzhen, with its population of 9 million. But thirty years ago, the city did not exist. In 2007, it sent out 21 million containers, making it the fourth largest port in the world.
His next example grabbed me because it revolves around Waltham, Massachusetts, just down the street from me. He even calls my alma mater, Brandeis University "an outstanding institution". He uses Waltham as a example because it was the home of the first modern factory in the US. (I wrote about this is an article for Wired: GeekDad Visits the Charles River Museum of Industry & Innovation.) Waltham went through some tough times as it went from being a center of manufacturing to center for high tech and venture capital.
The book continues by focusing on a city and the how globalization has affected each. There is disruption, innovation, loss, growth, distress, and gain.
All of the turmoil in the job markets makes employer-sponsored health-care a bad fit. "It's ridiculous that our cell phones work wherever we go but our health-care coverage does not."
Yes, globalization is displacing manufacturing jobs from the United States. But you also need to look at the advances in efficiency and technology that reduce manufacturing jobs. The US made 106 million tons of steel in 2007 with 159,000 workers. That is more than the 91 million tons of steel made in 1977 with 531,000 workers.
Globalization is also bringing peace. A few decades ago the world's two most important countries had horns locked trying to destroy each other. The US and USSR had nuclear missiles aimed and fingers on the button. We would not even send athletes to the other's hosting of the Olympic Games. Now the two most important countries are the US and China. We are locked "cooperative competition" of trade and finance.
Sure, China has a long way to go towards democracy and human rights. But the country is much better than it was 30 years ago.
If you have read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, you will encounter some familiar stories. You will also find the writing familiar as he weaves tales of economics into his football column.
Is Easterbrook right? Do I agree with everything he writes? Well, even Kurt Warner throws a few incomplete passes.
If you like football, then you should also read his Tuesday Morning Quaterback column on ESPN.com. I enjoyed reading Sonic Boom and recommend that you read it. With only one meaningful football game left this season, you'll need something to read in the off-season.
I enjoyed this book pretty well. It is much more optimistic than many books I have read recently. The book discusses many almost ready for prime time technological advancements that could help significantly with our current energy and greenhouse gas problems. Makes the general point that many environmental problems of the past have already been significantly improved through technology. And that providing an open market place to spur innovation is the best way to get these on the cusp technologies to mature. The book also points out that increased globalization increases the pool of ideas from which to produce innovations.
Certainly this book, while not entirely ignoring it, does downplay the effects of global warming compared to so many other things I have read recently. On the other hand it suggests how the market place can address energy and greenhouse gas problems using its natural mechanism, profit. While waiting for technological advances to become cheap enough to fix these issues solely through natural market forces won't happen as quickly as we would all like. At least it does suggest some hope for the future. Nothing else I have read or heard has given me hope.
Another of the book's main points is that efficient globalization will create more and more rapid change. Ultimately creating an environment where no job, company, or even industry is permanent. The book points out that accelerating pace of technological change has been a constant feature of industrialization. As a measure of rate of change it measures the time a technological advancement remains state of the art against the year the advancement was introduced. These examples are just anecdotal but are still pretty compelling. The book goes on to show how over time every product becomes more cheaper to buy, more efficient to produce in terms of energy and environmental impact, and more reliable to use.
The book ultimately concludes that increased globalization is an unavoidable fact of the years ahead. That improvements in the general standard of living and Earth's environment will result. That rapid change and the increased personal upheavals associated with job loss are a necessary part of globalization.
This was an interesting audiobook. They should have had a professional read it. Mr Easterbrook sounded like someone reading a book and occasionally having problems with the words. There were a number of faux pas, which I gather from one of the other reviews were in the printed book. The one that sticks in my mind was a comment about 'Betamax vs VCR'
8 hrs and 27 mins
Publisher's Summary
Signs that the recession is about to end are here. So what comes next? Growth will resume. But economic uncertainty will worsen, making what comes next not just a boom but a nerve-shattering Sonic Boom. Gregg Easterbrook, who "writes nothing that is not brilliant" (Chicago Tribune), is a fount of unconventional wisdom, and over time, he is almost always proven right. Throughout 2008 and 2009, as the global economy was contracting and the experts were panicking, Easterbrook worked on a book saying prosperity is about to make its next big leap. Will he be right again? Sonic Boom: Globalization at Mach Speed presents three basic insights. First, if you don't like globalization, brace yourself, because globalization has barely started. Easterbrook contends the world is about to become far more globally linked. Second, the next wave of global change will be primarily positive: economic prosperity, knowledge, and freedom will increase more in the next 50 years than in all of human history to this point. But before you celebrate, Easterbrook further warns that the next phase of global change is going to drive us crazy. Most things will be good for most people but nothing will seem certain for anyone.
Each Sonic Boom chapter is based on examples of cities around the world, in the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and South America, that represent a significant Sonic Boom trend.
With a terrific sense of humor, pitch-perfect reporting and clear, elegant prose, Easterbrook explains why economic recovery is on the horizon but why the next phase of global change will also give everyone one hell of a headache. Forbes calls Easterbrook "the best writer on complex topics in the United States" and Sonic Boom will show you why.
For those anxious about the future (and who isn't?), Gregg Easterbrook had you in mind when writing Sonic Boom, a big-picture analysis of globalization and its emerging trends.
Easterbrook presents a convincing case that the future is not bleak. In fact, it will likely be better than the present for hundreds of millions of people. But in exchange for new technologies, less expensive goods and greater freedoms, people (and Americans, in particular) will lose a large portion of the economic security that became the norm during the post-World War II era.
Health care, the environment and the value of college athletics to education are just a few more topics Easterbrook throws on the fire in this meandering work, which builds its foundation on history and takes a close look at the characteristics of today's titans of business.
Sonic Boom is a must-read for recent graduates and aspiring entrepreneurs. It's the antidote to the knee-jerk news media and doom-and-gloom analysis that currently dominates the national and international scene.
I didn't even finish this book because there were so many errors in the introduction alone. For example, Easterbrook claims that a few centuries ago, people on each continent didn't even know the other continents existed, which is just patently untrue if you do a little research on the global communication that was present in even prehistoric times. Easterbrook also cites a statistic on military expenditures, and then in the next chapter cites exactly the same statistic, but with a slightly different number. Who was editing this thing? What really made me stop reading, though, was the author's reference to "the Arab nations," as if they are one homogenous block, and states "Dear...Arab nations: Become democracies." Because, you know, once they read this book they will certainly be able to overcome years of tyranny and institute the type of political system you recommend! Besides that, the U.S. is NOT a democracy - we are a republic - so Easterbrook's command doesn't really make sense.
Great "layman's" book on globalization. Does a nice job balancing some of the goods and bads although there are definitely some underlying assumptions that stick out throughout. A nice bit of positive thinking in an area where we are mostly deluged with bad. Develops a couple of concepts really nicely. Mostly, a perfect companion to Funke's Econ. course, though not necessarily more "right" it allows one to look at both sides of the tracks, and then then find the truth somewhere in the middle.
I originally read Easterbrook's ESPN.com football column. His writing style is simple, and he really has some great ideas about how to approach a future that involves more and more uncertainty (political, economic, atmospheric and otherwise). The fact that he suggests ways to solve problems, rather than ranting and complaining, is refreshing. I will seek out more books by this author.
I thought this was an interesting book, but didn't really provide the insight that one would expect from a futuristic book. Lots of examples of businesses that have failed because they couldn't adjust. I had expected the author to take more specific views on where the world is heading. We all know it is going to change. No real news here.
ok book - similar to many others relative to global optimism, but some good observations on the increasing speed of everything in a city by city micro study format.