To embrace common Sense is to acknowledge our limitations and be rational in our decision-making. For a layman new to investing, the best, risk-free, and easiest method to accumulate wealth over the long term is through systematically investing in Index Funds. I was introduced to John C. Bogle when I read Tony Robins' Money Master the Game in 2016. John C. Bogle had done his Ph.D. in Mutual Funds from Princeton University and founded the first-ever Index Fund Vanguard 500 in 1976.
To simplify indexing for beginners, let us assume that we do not have the appetite for risk, prowess, and time to choose the best stock from the market that would make us a millionaire in the future. Instead, if we choose to own the entire market by collectively investing in all the listed companies, we would be able to make a similar profit in line with the upward movement of the chosen Index. The tenet of Index investing is that even if we cannot beat the market, we still do not lose our invested money (risk-free).
Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that investing a sum of Rs. 5000 a month, with an annual step-up of 10%, would accomplish the below-said figure within thirty years. Assuming that the annualized return would be a minimum (conservative) 9%, the invested sum of Rs. 40,00,000 would lead to a total value of Rs. 1,43,00,000 in thirty years. Thanks to the beauty and magic of compounding. But John C. Bogle also makes a significant point in this book on the tyranny of costs by stating, “Where returns are concerned, time is your friend. But where costs are concerned, time is your enemy.” In the context of mutual funds, it is also important to note the Expense Ratio (ER) which includes the cost attributed to managing and operating the active fund. Though Index Funds, typically carry low costs, the key is to choose a fund with the lowest ER.
Other key takeaways from the book:
1. Occam’s Razor: When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.
2. Don’t look for the needle. Buy the haystack.
3. Buying funds based purely on past performance is one of the stupidest things an investor can do. Past performance does not reflect future progress.
4. Real Returns = Nominal Returns - Inflation Rate - Management Fees. Hence, Cost matters. A lot.
5. Expense Ratios are strong predictors of performance. Funds with high ER tend to carry high risk and lower returns.
If we imbibe a sense of patience and discipline by starting early, consistent investment throughout the runway would lead to desired results within twenty years without having to go through sleepless nights thinking about the market volatility. Warren Buffet once said, “It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results." Starting early, and mimicking the market by investing in Index Funds is the best way to ensure that we live a comfortable post-retirement life.