When it comes to the study of sovereign default, author Sebastian Edwards, a UCLA professor, got his baptism of fire studying the 16 year saga that started with the 2001 Argentinian default. Inevitably, this led him to the much larger, and poignantly similar, US default to all holders of gold-linked dollar debt in 1933.
“American Default” is a blow-by-blow account of how FDR did a Nestor Kirchner and got away with it –just!
The full background is given here. You get profiles of his “brain trust” of advisors (I had no idea where the expression “holy Moley” came from, so that was cool), of the nine supreme court justices, with more emphasis on former presidential candidate chief justice Evans and the leader of the “four horsemen,” James McReynolds than on rock stars Brandeis and Cardozo, and of other important FDR cabinet member and advisors like Woodin, Morgenthau and Warburg.
More than anything else, the author convinced me that FDR 100% made it up as he went along! The main thesis of the book is that the US was taken off the gold standard (and all gold was as good as confiscated) because a Cornell professor of agricultural economics, George Warren, convinced Roosevelt that the depressed price of agricultural commodities could be made to rise again if the dollar was devalued versus gold. It’s not clear FDR totally bought this theory, but God knows he gave it a shot.
A full chapter is dedicated to the vain effort to achieve this goal through direct intervention in the gold market by the president himself, who would mischievously decide the gold price for every day while having breakfast in bed, surrounded by his many advisors.
Not unlike what happened some seventy years later with Quantitative Easing, however, the voodoo seems to have helped the wider economy recover. 100% unlike what happened with mortgages in 2008-09, of course, the main plank of government policy was to violate sanctity of contract, thereby lightening the burden on everyone who had borrowed against gold-linked dollars by more than one third.
What I took away from reading this, basically, is that the biggest issue that legally differentiates the US default of 1933 from the Argentinian restructuring of 2005 (namely that the US default was purely domestic, whereas the Argentines chiefly defaulted on foreigners) not only helped FDR prevail when four plaintiffs took his policies to the Supreme Court, but also perhaps serves to explain why the US remains in a funk ten years after the financial crisis:
In the thirties, the US was prepared to abrogate the right of domestic gold-linked bondholders to a windfall; ten years ago, the Chinese government was made whole on its holdings of Fannie and Freddie, all while the rate of homeownership in the US was allowed to plummet from 69% to 61%.
It’s not that surprising we got Trump, is it?
I’d love to give the book five stars, because it’s clearly a labor of love and it was a genuine page-turner. Except I can’t. I can’t forgive the author his second-rate explanation on page 128 of how the monetary base can move in the opposite direction from M1 and I can forgive even less his ABYSMAL analysis on pages 130-131 of the events that led up to the events he describes.
How can he have delved so deeply into the period starting in 1932 without doing a couple days’ worth of analysis of what went before? As the author himself recounts, FDR’s most famous policy ever, the bank holiday of March 1933, was 100% a legacy policy designed by his predecessors. Minimal research would have been sufficient to establish that Hoover and his cabinet pretty much came up with and to a great extent implemented most of the policies included in the New Deal. They may not have been as daring or innovative (or gloriously unconstitutional!) as Roosevelt, but they did not cause the Great Depression. Its causes were much deeper.
Perhaps a junior wrote pages 128 – 131. Edwards should have read them before going to press. I say that and I remember the “press copy” anecdote he tells so well, and it breaks my heart.