The Return of the Great Depression

by Vox Day

In this sophisticated yet readable book, Vox Day - one of the few economics writers to predict the current worldwide financial crisis - explains why it is likely to continue. Day shows that the policies being pursued in Europe, Asia, and the United States are very similar to Japan's failed policies of the past twenty years and, therefore, doomed to similar results. According to Day, the economic theories behind those policies are flawed and account for why most economists were unable to anticipate the recession or see that their expectations of an imminent recovery are incorrect. Day applies a different theory, the one he used to predict the current crisis, to show that the world is in the early stages of a massive economic contraction. Then he turns to the six scenarios presently envisioned by the world's leading economists and assesses which is most likely to unfold. As the title suggests, Day concludes that the most probable scenario is a Great Depression 2.0 that will be larger in scale and scope than that of the 1930s.

Genres: Nonfiction, Economics, Politics, Political Science

280 pages, Hardcover

First published October 29, 2009

About the author

Theodore Beale does much of his writing under the pseudonym Vox Day. Three-time Hugo Award nominee Vox Day writes epic fantasy as well as non-fiction about religion, philosophy, and economics. His literary focus is military realism, historical verisimilitude, and plausible characters who represent the full spectrum of human behavior. He is a professional game designer who speaks four languages and a three-time Billboard top 40 recording artist.

He maintains a pair of popular blogs, Vox Popoli and Alpha Game, which between them average over 20 million annual pageviews. He is a Native American and his books have been translated into ten languages.

He is the Lead Editor of Castalia House, and is also, with Tom Kratman, the co-creator of the military science fiction anthology series, RIDING THE RED HORSE.

Reviews

[Frank R · Rating 4 out of 5]

We are so screwed.

Day convincingly argues that the present economic climate is parallel in many ways to the early days of the Great Depression, and that the remedies being prescribed are also parallel to the failed policies of the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations that prolonged the Contraction of 1929-41.

This slender volume (only 250 pages) also provides the best explanation of just what went wrong, including the wrong-headed policies of both political parties, and a very useful summary of the various economic schools--Keynesian, Chicago Monetarist, and Austrian.

Day outlines ten proposals for how to shorten and alleviate the pain of the inevitable contraction we are facing due to worldwide debt and liquidity crisis. None of these have much chance, especially in a Democrat administration. We can only hope that when this Depression ends (in as late as 2018, Day predicts!) that our country emerges both intact and still free.

[Halik · Rating 1 out of 5]

just wrote a lengthy review and it just disappeared. Anyway what i said in a nutshell was that the book had its positives. It shows that economic theory put into practice cannot escape the corruption of politicization. It also shows that deductions based on historical statistics may not be all that solid after all. But ultimately this is a rant against all other schools of economics except the Austrian school and this is illustrated in the authors pages long rant against Paul Krugman. I lost thread here as well as interest and just started flipping pages. This is primarily a forecast of a depression which looks a bit absurd now that more than a year has passed and no depression of the scale suggested by this book has hit us yet.

[John · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mr. Day is a proponent of the Austrian School of economic theory who believes that a second great depression is near (Depression 2.0) He maintains that the only way to minimize the inconvenience of this scenario is to implement a ten course corrections.
1. The Feds must raise interest rates
2. No more bailouts
3. Cut income taxes.
4. Eliminate 'pork'
5. Audit the Federal Reserve. (Neat idea)
6. Curtails the SEC's power to regulate stock exchanges. As police, they do a very poor job.
7. Bring all our troops home; we cannot afford policing the globe
8. Halt immigration and let mothers stay home if they choose with their children (like in the good old days.)
9. Ban banking bonuses.
10. End the federal monetary monopoly.

Agree? Disagree? Interesting read!

[Frederick Dotolo · Rating 2 out of 5]

His analysis of the cause of the recession is very insightful. I also think how Day takes apart Krugman is worth the price of the book. However, the best part of the book is the difference between the various schools of economics. I found his recommendations to fix the economic collapse to be rather stale and too much Ron Paulish.

[Gary · Rating 4 out of 5]

I can't claim to have understood everything the author presented (and suspect some sections would have benefited from further editing), but I really enjoyed and learned from his presentation of the Keynesian (fiscal), Chicago (monetarist), and Austrian (business cycle) schools. I'm not sure I'm all that enthused to read more books on macroeconomics anytime soon, but I do possess a better foundation to make sense of the related articles and postings I read.

[John Schneider · Rating 4 out of 5]

Although I am a layman with respect to economics, I do appreciate insightful and clear thought. Vox Day manages to elucidate his views on the economy quite well in "The Return of the Great Depression." The book begins rather straightforwardly as Vox Day presents the typical way economists understand the economy in general as well as today's situation in particular. As the book progresses, however, Vox Day presents his own views on these matters, which are quite pessimistic. Not only does he believe that mainstream economists misunderstand the present situation but they misunderstand in such a way that they cannot be disproven of their ignorance. Much as Thomas Sowell casts considerable doubt on macroeconomic figures (especially those produced by governments), Vox Day holds that macroeconomics cannot understand let alone predict what it claims. Regardless of whether Day convinces you of his own theories, his treatment of the material is succinct and fair. One must at least consider the possibility of Day being correct in general if not in particular. In either of those cases, the economic future is grim indeed.

[Peter Wendt · Rating 5 out of 5]

Return of the Great Depression (RGD) is a relatively fast paced, informative economic read. Readers may come away wishing it were a work of fiction, but the reality is simple - it is not. From the lost decade of Japan to the sub-prime housing market, derivatives, and bailouts, RGD will take you where perhaps you do not wish to go. Ignorance can be bliss. It can also be deadly. The red pill is not for everyone, but it should be.

Imagine you're drowning in debt and your investment adviser or banker, trusted TV pundit, or some Nobel prize winner recommends you take on more debt and all will be made well. Vox Day explains what should be the obvious lunacy of such, but if one is familiar at all with current events, apparently isn't.

RGD is highly educational. I recommend everyone read it, and perhaps just once listen to your instincts and you might be the better off, viewing critically what those having a vested interest have been telling you.

The recession has been declared over. Jim Cramer said so. We dodged that bullet. Do you believe it? If you don't but can't quite articulate why, RGD may just help in that respect.

[Mike Gibbs · Rating 4 out of 5]

Day does a great job laying out why government policies attempting to promote an endless economic boom not only cannot work, but they guarantee that when the inevitable bust comes, the crash is directly proportional to the boom (and to the amount of work that is done to artificially keep the boom going).

Another important point that you will probably walk away from the book with is the inherent unreliability of the government economic statistics. These statistics are used by politicians to justify their foregone decisions and to get themselves reelected, resulting in things such as the CPI calculations changing so much that it is incredibly difficult to even compare historical data.

This book is a great companion to something like Crashproof by Peter Schiff (I read them back-to-back) since Day sets out why the coming economic collapse is all but inevitable and Schiff is a professional investor who sets out how to protect your assets when it occurs.

[Larry · Rating 4 out of 5]

A little beyond the scope of my knowledge on economic theory, but very readable and informative. Though the scope of the recent recession hasn't developed as predicted in the book, the underlying structural deficiencies are still there waiting for a collapse (as we see with the stock market dropping at the hint of an interest rate increase or suggestion of stopping QE).

[Josh · Rating 5 out of 5]

Way back in 2009 Vox wrote about the likelihood of an extended period of economic depression due to inability of credit to indefinitely fuel economic expansion. It's a very accessible walk through the recent economic landscape...and events have proven his thesis of deflation correct.

[Tom · Rating 4 out of 5]

If this author is correct, we are soooo scr*w*d. Got gold?

[Mark Williams · Rating 5 out of 5]

It gets a little verbose in explaining economic theories, but another good book in predicting the predicament the US and the rest of the world will soon face; Great Depression 2.0.

[Aeoli Pera · Rating 5 out of 5]

Well-explained, concise, and correct. Economics is generally a waste of time but this is not.

[Adam Meek · Rating 3 out of 5]

The dismal science from an Austrian School perspective. written in 2009, RGD predicts that the stimulus will prolong economic contraction.

[Matthew · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fantastic analysis of the cause, cure, and theory behind why depressions occur both nowadays and in the past.

[N.B. Austin · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very well-researched book about the weak foundation of our current, debt-based economy. While the timeline aspect of Day's predictions didn't entirely come to fruition in the decade following the so-called "Great Recession," there are clear indications that the issues he discusses are very real and coming to a head in many ways. In particular, the battle between centralization and decentralization of currency as a result of more than a century of reckless central banking experimentation.

[Josh · Rating 4 out of 5]

So we didn't quite have a great depression. Vox missed our ability to crank the can down the road a good bit. But given current conditions, country wide lockdown, I think this might be the second shock we've been anticipating. Also man is parts of this dense. Also have some books to read in the future based on this.